⚠️ At 13:30 GMT today, the US will release data on the state of its labor market. Forecasts suggest an increase of 180 thousand jobs last month, compared to 150 thousand in October.
📊 Last week, initial unemployment benefit applications in the US totaled 220 thousand, a slight increase from 219 thousand two weeks earlier.
📣 The Bank of Japan's head, Ueda, stated that the regulator is exploring options to normalize monetary policy and move away from negative interest rates. This led to a notable strengthening of the yen and a decline in the USD/JPY pair to 141.64.
🇯🇵 Japan's gross domestic product contracted by 0.7% in Q3, with an annual drop of 2.9%.
🇪🇺 The eurozone's gross domestic product saw a 0.1% decrease in Q3, while the annual economic performance remained stagnant. #EconomicIndicators #USDJPY #GDP #LaborMarket #FreshForex
📊 Last week, initial unemployment benefit applications in the US totaled 220 thousand, a slight increase from 219 thousand two weeks earlier.
📣 The Bank of Japan's head, Ueda, stated that the regulator is exploring options to normalize monetary policy and move away from negative interest rates. This led to a notable strengthening of the yen and a decline in the USD/JPY pair to 141.64.
🇯🇵 Japan's gross domestic product contracted by 0.7% in Q3, with an annual drop of 2.9%.
🇪🇺 The eurozone's gross domestic product saw a 0.1% decrease in Q3, while the annual economic performance remained stagnant. #EconomicIndicators #USDJPY #GDP #LaborMarket #FreshForex
🏛 Market Overview: Indices Show Rebound - Testing Levels...
🔙 Previous Trading Day: The indices demonstrated decent rebound attempts following a pullback on Wednesday's trading session, especially NQ showing relatively stronger dynamics. SPX made attempts at a local rebound, continuing to move near the crucial resistance at 4600. NQ showed solid rebound attempts, testing the boundary of the inclined channel and resistance at 16040.
🔆 Today: It is crucial for the indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 15700 for NQ and 4500 for SPX to prevent a rollback from current levels and ensure the possibility of continued growth if the nearest levels at 16040 for NQ and 4600 for SPX are breached.
🔎 Current Market Focus:
(1) The focus is currently shifting to Friday's US employment report.
(2) To gather information on the upcoming Fed meeting next week.
📊 Sectors:
Among cyclical sectors, XRT, XLY, and XLB led the rebound, while XLI, ITA, and XLE were weaker than others. Most growth sectors outperformed the market, with SOXX, XLC, IPO, and XLK showing the highest growth. Among defensive sectors, XLU and XLV experienced a slight pullback from local resistances, while XLP attempted to rebound from the trend.
💼 Stock News:
(=) CVX - Chevron faces new risks in Venezuela as Maduro threatens Guyana.
(+) BA - Boeing is close to securing an order for approximately 80 wide-body 787 Dreamliner aircraft from Thai Airways.
(+) AMZN - Amazon is testing a new unlimited grocery delivery service for Prime members.
(+) AVGO - Broadcom falls despite strong 2024 forecasts and Q4 results.
(+) SQ - Block launches a Bitcoin wallet that allows users to independently store their tokens on hardware.
(=) XOM - Exxon plans to respond to the Federal Trade Commission's second request for the $59 billion Pioneer deal as soon as possible.
(=) NKE - Nike's long-standing partnership with Tiger Woods may come to an end.
(+) LLY - Eli Lilly announces that its breast cancer drug Verzenio has received an expansion of labeling from the Canadian Ministry of Health.
(+) AMD - AMD's latest AI accelerator, Instinct MI300X, received mostly positive reactions on Wall Street.
(=) TTWO - According to BofA, Grand Theft Auto 6 from Rockstar may be delayed.
🌐 Intermarket Analysis:
Oil attempts a local rebound from support at 68.8 and the lower boundary of the descending channel. Yield is consolidating near the boundaries of the inclined channel and the 4.17% level. VIX continues to move in consolidation near the 13 level. Gold continues to move along the 50-MA and the boundaries of the local uptrend.
🗣 Market Discussions:
Here's what the market will be looking for in the Friday key job report.
Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 190,000 last month compared to 150,000 in October. However, investors and policymakers expected the situation to slow down enough to at least allow the Fed to end this rate hike cycle. A report of stronger job market could undermine this confidence and darken the positive mood on Wall Street. There's also some risk of growth due to returning workers in the automotive industry who have announced a strike. Thus, it appears to be a resilient but slowing labor market. #MarketAnalysis #Indices #StockNews #EconomicIndicators
🔙 Previous Trading Day: The indices demonstrated decent rebound attempts following a pullback on Wednesday's trading session, especially NQ showing relatively stronger dynamics. SPX made attempts at a local rebound, continuing to move near the crucial resistance at 4600. NQ showed solid rebound attempts, testing the boundary of the inclined channel and resistance at 16040.
🔆 Today: It is crucial for the indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 15700 for NQ and 4500 for SPX to prevent a rollback from current levels and ensure the possibility of continued growth if the nearest levels at 16040 for NQ and 4600 for SPX are breached.
🔎 Current Market Focus:
(1) The focus is currently shifting to Friday's US employment report.
(2) To gather information on the upcoming Fed meeting next week.
📊 Sectors:
Among cyclical sectors, XRT, XLY, and XLB led the rebound, while XLI, ITA, and XLE were weaker than others. Most growth sectors outperformed the market, with SOXX, XLC, IPO, and XLK showing the highest growth. Among defensive sectors, XLU and XLV experienced a slight pullback from local resistances, while XLP attempted to rebound from the trend.
💼 Stock News:
(=) CVX - Chevron faces new risks in Venezuela as Maduro threatens Guyana.
(+) BA - Boeing is close to securing an order for approximately 80 wide-body 787 Dreamliner aircraft from Thai Airways.
(+) AMZN - Amazon is testing a new unlimited grocery delivery service for Prime members.
(+) AVGO - Broadcom falls despite strong 2024 forecasts and Q4 results.
(+) SQ - Block launches a Bitcoin wallet that allows users to independently store their tokens on hardware.
(=) XOM - Exxon plans to respond to the Federal Trade Commission's second request for the $59 billion Pioneer deal as soon as possible.
(=) NKE - Nike's long-standing partnership with Tiger Woods may come to an end.
(+) LLY - Eli Lilly announces that its breast cancer drug Verzenio has received an expansion of labeling from the Canadian Ministry of Health.
(+) AMD - AMD's latest AI accelerator, Instinct MI300X, received mostly positive reactions on Wall Street.
(=) TTWO - According to BofA, Grand Theft Auto 6 from Rockstar may be delayed.
🌐 Intermarket Analysis:
Oil attempts a local rebound from support at 68.8 and the lower boundary of the descending channel. Yield is consolidating near the boundaries of the inclined channel and the 4.17% level. VIX continues to move in consolidation near the 13 level. Gold continues to move along the 50-MA and the boundaries of the local uptrend.
🗣 Market Discussions:
Here's what the market will be looking for in the Friday key job report.
Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 190,000 last month compared to 150,000 in October. However, investors and policymakers expected the situation to slow down enough to at least allow the Fed to end this rate hike cycle. A report of stronger job market could undermine this confidence and darken the positive mood on Wall Street. There's also some risk of growth due to returning workers in the automotive industry who have announced a strike. Thus, it appears to be a resilient but slowing labor market. #MarketAnalysis #Indices #StockNews #EconomicIndicators
Center stage: The Ministry of Labor Report.
The pivotal event of the day will be the release of the report on new non-farm jobs for November. The consensus anticipates a figure of 175,000, following 150,000 in October, with an annual average of 238,000. Special attention is given to the expected increase of around 50,000 jobs, attributed to the resolution of strikes in the automotive industry and Hollywood. Meanwhile, the demand for labor is diminishing due to the economic slowdown under the influence of the Federal Reserve's stringent monetary conditions.
Labor market data is disclosed ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled for December 12–13, where the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain the interest rate in the current range of 5.25–5.5%.
We anticipate that the upcoming session will be characterized by increased volatility with a positive risk balance. Sharp fluctuations in quotes are expected at the beginning of trading following the release of the labor market report.
#MinistryofLaborReport #LaborMarket #FOMC #FederalReserve #Volatility #EconomicForecast
The pivotal event of the day will be the release of the report on new non-farm jobs for November. The consensus anticipates a figure of 175,000, following 150,000 in October, with an annual average of 238,000. Special attention is given to the expected increase of around 50,000 jobs, attributed to the resolution of strikes in the automotive industry and Hollywood. Meanwhile, the demand for labor is diminishing due to the economic slowdown under the influence of the Federal Reserve's stringent monetary conditions.
Labor market data is disclosed ahead of the FOMC meeting scheduled for December 12–13, where the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain the interest rate in the current range of 5.25–5.5%.
We anticipate that the upcoming session will be characterized by increased volatility with a positive risk balance. Sharp fluctuations in quotes are expected at the beginning of trading following the release of the labor market report.
#MinistryofLaborReport #LaborMarket #FOMC #FederalReserve #Volatility #EconomicForecast
🇺🇸 ExxonMobil (XOM) shares are currently experiencing a notable decline and are trading near the $98 mark.
1️⃣ The negative trend is unfolding amid the oil market downturn, attributed to the absence of production cuts by OPEC+ members. Additionally, new indications of a slowdown in the growth of major global economies are raising concerns about a potential decrease in energy demand.
2️⃣ Furthermore, escalating tensions between Venezuela and Guyana over disputed territories rich in "black gold" are exerting downward pressure on XOM quotes. Analysts are not ruling out the possibility of a military conflict, which could delay ExxonMobil's largest foreign project for resource extraction on the Guyana sea shelf, resulting in substantial investment losses amounting to several billion dollars.
📉 Analysts are recommending maintaining short positions on XOM shares with a target of $90.
#XOM #ExxonMobil #StockMarket #OilPrices #GlobalEconomy #InvestmentAnalysis
1️⃣ The negative trend is unfolding amid the oil market downturn, attributed to the absence of production cuts by OPEC+ members. Additionally, new indications of a slowdown in the growth of major global economies are raising concerns about a potential decrease in energy demand.
2️⃣ Furthermore, escalating tensions between Venezuela and Guyana over disputed territories rich in "black gold" are exerting downward pressure on XOM quotes. Analysts are not ruling out the possibility of a military conflict, which could delay ExxonMobil's largest foreign project for resource extraction on the Guyana sea shelf, resulting in substantial investment losses amounting to several billion dollars.
📉 Analysts are recommending maintaining short positions on XOM shares with a target of $90.
#XOM #ExxonMobil #StockMarket #OilPrices #GlobalEconomy #InvestmentAnalysis
This week marks the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year in the U.S., along with the awaited release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures. Additionally, on Thursday, Intel will host an event to launch its AI products.
#FinancialNews #FedReserve #Inflation #AI #Intel
📄 Quarterly Reports:
Total companies: 39.
Reporting companies in the S&P index: 7.
Major names:
✅ Oracle (ORCL): Dec 11, after-market.
✅ Adobe (ADBE): Dec 13, after-market.
✅ Costco Wholesale (COST): Dec 14, after-market.
✅ Lennar (LEN): Dec 14, after-market.
✅ Johnson Controls (JCI): Dec 12, before-market.
✅ Darden Restaurants (DRI): Dec 15, before-market.
✅ Jabil (JBL): Dec 14, before-market.
🇺🇸 On December 12, the U.S. is set to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November. A slowdown in year-on-year inflation is anticipated, decreasing to 3.1% from 3.2% in October.
On December 13, Producer Price Index (PPI) data for November will be released. A year-on-year deceleration in price growth to 1% is forecasted after a 1.3% increase the previous month. The core index (excluding food and energy prices) may decrease to 2.2% from 2.4% in October.
On December 13, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its decision on the benchmark interest rate. The market is 98% confident that the regulator will maintain the range of 5.25%-5.5% annually.
December 14 will bring retail sales statistics for November in the U.S., potentially influencing the holiday season shopping trends.
Also on December 14, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) will host the AI Everywhere event, showcasing its developments in artificial intelligence. Intel will be the latest among major chip manufacturers to present such innovations. A similar event last week boosted Advanced Micro Devices' stock by 7% in a day.
By the way, a day earlier, Adobe will release a report that will also help gauge demand for its new AI solutions.
Finally, on December 15, industrial production data for November in America will be examined. Following a decline of 0.6% in October, a growth of 0.3% is expected.
🇬🇧 On December 14, the Bank of England will announce its decision on the key interest rate. No changes are anticipated, and the rate is expected to remain at 5.25%.
#FinancialNews #FedReserve #Inflation #AI #Intel
📄 Quarterly Reports:
Total companies: 39.
Reporting companies in the S&P index: 7.
Major names:
✅ Oracle (ORCL): Dec 11, after-market.
✅ Adobe (ADBE): Dec 13, after-market.
✅ Costco Wholesale (COST): Dec 14, after-market.
✅ Lennar (LEN): Dec 14, after-market.
✅ Johnson Controls (JCI): Dec 12, before-market.
✅ Darden Restaurants (DRI): Dec 15, before-market.
✅ Jabil (JBL): Dec 14, before-market.
🇺🇸 On December 12, the U.S. is set to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November. A slowdown in year-on-year inflation is anticipated, decreasing to 3.1% from 3.2% in October.
On December 13, Producer Price Index (PPI) data for November will be released. A year-on-year deceleration in price growth to 1% is forecasted after a 1.3% increase the previous month. The core index (excluding food and energy prices) may decrease to 2.2% from 2.4% in October.
On December 13, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its decision on the benchmark interest rate. The market is 98% confident that the regulator will maintain the range of 5.25%-5.5% annually.
December 14 will bring retail sales statistics for November in the U.S., potentially influencing the holiday season shopping trends.
Also on December 14, Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) will host the AI Everywhere event, showcasing its developments in artificial intelligence. Intel will be the latest among major chip manufacturers to present such innovations. A similar event last week boosted Advanced Micro Devices' stock by 7% in a day.
By the way, a day earlier, Adobe will release a report that will also help gauge demand for its new AI solutions.
Finally, on December 15, industrial production data for November in America will be examined. Following a decline of 0.6% in October, a growth of 0.3% is expected.
🇬🇧 On December 14, the Bank of England will announce its decision on the key interest rate. No changes are anticipated, and the rate is expected to remain at 5.25%.
📊Stocks
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 6:14 a.m. London time
Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 1.7%
S&P/ASX 200 futures were little changed
Japan’s Topix rose 1.5%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.2%
The Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%
Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed
💱Currencies
The euro was little changed at $1.0769
The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 145.63 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.1% to 7.1957 per dollar
⬜️ Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 4.2% to $41,945.31
Ether fell 4.8% to $2,247.13
🌍Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.25%
Japan’s 10-year yield was unchanged at 0.775%
Australia’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.34%
🛒Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $71.75 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,997.98 an ounce
S&P 500 futures were little changed as of 6:14 a.m. London time
Nikkei 225 futures (OSE) rose 1.7%
S&P/ASX 200 futures were little changed
Japan’s Topix rose 1.5%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.2%
The Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%
Euro Stoxx 50 futures were little changed
💱Currencies
The euro was little changed at $1.0769
The Japanese yen fell 0.5% to 145.63 per dollar
The offshore yuan fell 0.1% to 7.1957 per dollar
⬜️ Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin fell 4.2% to $41,945.31
Ether fell 4.8% to $2,247.13
🌍Bonds
The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 4.25%
Japan’s 10-year yield was unchanged at 0.775%
Australia’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 4.34%
🛒Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.7% to $71.75 a barrel
Spot gold fell 0.3% to $1,997.98 an ounce
📈 Indices aim to continue their upward momentum, testing resistances...
#Market #Trading #Indices
🏛 What's happening in the market today? For more #freshupdate:
🔙 In the previous trading day, indices showed efforts to sustain positive dynamics, approaching local resistance levels and channel boundaries. The SPX index attempted growth, testing resistance at 4610 and the upper channel boundary. The NQ index also tried to continue its upward movement, successfully breaking through the boundaries of the inclined channel and testing the level of 16117.
🔆 Today, it's crucial for indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 15700 for NQ and 4500 for SPX to prevent a pullback from current levels and ensure the possibility of further growth upon surpassing the nearest levels at 16100 for NQ and 4610 for SPX.
🔎 What factors is the market currently focused on?
(1) China's inflation index dropped at the fastest pace in three years.
(2) Traders await data on inflation in the U.S. and the Federal Reserve's meetings later this week.
#Inflation #FinancialMarkets #Economy
📊 Sectors
Among cyclical sectors, XLE performed the best, bouncing back from local lows. ITA, XLF, and XLY attempted to continue growth in line with the market, while XLRE pulled back and showed less stability.
Among growing sectors, MJ, IPO, XLK, SOXX, and SKYY demonstrated growth, confirming local highs. Meanwhile, IBB and TAN retreated and were less successful.
Among defensive sectors, XLP showed a decline in relative strength compared to the market, testing lows, while XLV and XLU also lagged, showing more stable dynamics.
#Sectors #FinancialMarkets #Trading
💼 Stock News
(+) TSLA, RIVN - Piper Sandler highlights growth prospects for the electric vehicle sector.
(+) GOOGL - The launch of Google Gemini promises a successful 2024 for the company, according to Citi.
(+) BA - Boeing has modified a contract with USSOCOM worth $271.22 million.
(+) BA - China expresses interest in strengthening cooperation with Boeing.
(=) SBUX - Starbucks is ready to resume union negotiations in 2024.
(=) AAPL - Head of iPhone and smartwatch design at Apple is stepping down.
(+) AAPL - Production of iPads by Apple may be moved to Vietnam from China.
(+) MU - Micron reaches a labor agreement with the union at its Idaho plant worth $15 billion.
(=) AVGO - 2024 could be challenging for Broadcom, but Wall Street expects growth in the second half of the year.
(+) QRVO - Qorvo's rating is raised by Morgan Stanley; ratings for Qualcomm and Lam Research are lowered.
#Stocks #Exchange #FinancialNews
🌐 Intermarket Analysis
Oil continues attempts at a local recovery, overcoming inclines and approaching a test of the $72.6 level.
Yield also tries to move upward, approaching the 50-day moving average and incline boundaries.
VIX continues to decline, attempting to refresh lows at the 12.5 level.
Gold continues its correction, moving toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the $2000 level.
#GlobalMarkets #Oil #Yield #Gold #FinancialMarkets
🗣 Market Discussions
Stocks are rising on the "liquidity rally," and it is expected they will reach new highs in 2024, according to Fundstrat.
Tom Lee of Fundstrat suggests that stocks will reach new record highs in 2024.
This is tied to the Federal Reserve transitioning to a less restrictive monetary policy, paving the way for a "liquidity rally" in the market.
Lee claims that the S&P 500 index could rise to 5200 by the end of 2024, anticipating potential growth of 13% compared to current levels.
This is associated with expectations of a possible reduction in Fed interest rates next year, as inflation in the economy continues to show a weakening trend.
"The Fed is no longer waging an inflation war but is really transitioning to business cycle management — these are huge changes," says Lee.
#FinancialMarkets #Stocks #Fundstrat #Fed #Liquidity #Forecasts
#Market #Trading #Indices
🏛 What's happening in the market today? For more #freshupdate:
🔙 In the previous trading day, indices showed efforts to sustain positive dynamics, approaching local resistance levels and channel boundaries. The SPX index attempted growth, testing resistance at 4610 and the upper channel boundary. The NQ index also tried to continue its upward movement, successfully breaking through the boundaries of the inclined channel and testing the level of 16117.
🔆 Today, it's crucial for indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 15700 for NQ and 4500 for SPX to prevent a pullback from current levels and ensure the possibility of further growth upon surpassing the nearest levels at 16100 for NQ and 4610 for SPX.
🔎 What factors is the market currently focused on?
(1) China's inflation index dropped at the fastest pace in three years.
(2) Traders await data on inflation in the U.S. and the Federal Reserve's meetings later this week.
#Inflation #FinancialMarkets #Economy
📊 Sectors
Among cyclical sectors, XLE performed the best, bouncing back from local lows. ITA, XLF, and XLY attempted to continue growth in line with the market, while XLRE pulled back and showed less stability.
Among growing sectors, MJ, IPO, XLK, SOXX, and SKYY demonstrated growth, confirming local highs. Meanwhile, IBB and TAN retreated and were less successful.
Among defensive sectors, XLP showed a decline in relative strength compared to the market, testing lows, while XLV and XLU also lagged, showing more stable dynamics.
#Sectors #FinancialMarkets #Trading
💼 Stock News
(+) TSLA, RIVN - Piper Sandler highlights growth prospects for the electric vehicle sector.
(+) GOOGL - The launch of Google Gemini promises a successful 2024 for the company, according to Citi.
(+) BA - Boeing has modified a contract with USSOCOM worth $271.22 million.
(+) BA - China expresses interest in strengthening cooperation with Boeing.
(=) SBUX - Starbucks is ready to resume union negotiations in 2024.
(=) AAPL - Head of iPhone and smartwatch design at Apple is stepping down.
(+) AAPL - Production of iPads by Apple may be moved to Vietnam from China.
(+) MU - Micron reaches a labor agreement with the union at its Idaho plant worth $15 billion.
(=) AVGO - 2024 could be challenging for Broadcom, but Wall Street expects growth in the second half of the year.
(+) QRVO - Qorvo's rating is raised by Morgan Stanley; ratings for Qualcomm and Lam Research are lowered.
#Stocks #Exchange #FinancialNews
🌐 Intermarket Analysis
Oil continues attempts at a local recovery, overcoming inclines and approaching a test of the $72.6 level.
Yield also tries to move upward, approaching the 50-day moving average and incline boundaries.
VIX continues to decline, attempting to refresh lows at the 12.5 level.
Gold continues its correction, moving toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the $2000 level.
#GlobalMarkets #Oil #Yield #Gold #FinancialMarkets
🗣 Market Discussions
Stocks are rising on the "liquidity rally," and it is expected they will reach new highs in 2024, according to Fundstrat.
Tom Lee of Fundstrat suggests that stocks will reach new record highs in 2024.
This is tied to the Federal Reserve transitioning to a less restrictive monetary policy, paving the way for a "liquidity rally" in the market.
Lee claims that the S&P 500 index could rise to 5200 by the end of 2024, anticipating potential growth of 13% compared to current levels.
This is associated with expectations of a possible reduction in Fed interest rates next year, as inflation in the economy continues to show a weakening trend.
"The Fed is no longer waging an inflation war but is really transitioning to business cycle management — these are huge changes," says Lee.
#FinancialMarkets #Stocks #Fundstrat #Fed #Liquidity #Forecasts
The Dow Jones index has entered a consolidation phase, aligning with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, for almost two and three weeks, respectively. This could indicate consolidation before a breakout to new highs, but there are more chances that we are witnessing signs of growth exhaustion.
The Dow Jones index is currently trading only 0.8% below the record close in December 2021 and 2% below the all-time high, having gained nearly 12% during the rally over the last five weeks. The rapid ascent led to the RSI on daily charts exceeding 80, indicating an overbought condition. While entering this territory sometimes triggers even more aggressive rallies, signaling extreme investor greed, this time a different pattern seems to be emerging.
On Monday and Tuesday, the Dow Jones index showed a slow decline. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, broader stock indices, did not join the upward movement and continued to consolidate near recent highs.
The behavior of the currency market is equally important, with the dollar gaining since late November, typically considered a bearish factor for the stock market. However, the Dow Jones index, contrary to simple logic, has accelerated its ascent in recent days.
This movement resembles an active short position liquidation. A ruthless analogy to such liquidations was observed in gold with the capitulation peak on December 1st. A reverse situation was seen in April 2020 with negative oil futures prices.
Technically, from current levels, it seems more comfortable to take a bearish stance on Dow Jones, anticipating a potential 5% decline rather than an equivalent increase. Fundamentally, it is also challenging to justify buying stocks, given the expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 150 basis points over the next year while the final demand and corporate profits remain equally strong. #Finance #Stocks #Market #Investments
The Dow Jones index is currently trading only 0.8% below the record close in December 2021 and 2% below the all-time high, having gained nearly 12% during the rally over the last five weeks. The rapid ascent led to the RSI on daily charts exceeding 80, indicating an overbought condition. While entering this territory sometimes triggers even more aggressive rallies, signaling extreme investor greed, this time a different pattern seems to be emerging.
On Monday and Tuesday, the Dow Jones index showed a slow decline. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, broader stock indices, did not join the upward movement and continued to consolidate near recent highs.
The behavior of the currency market is equally important, with the dollar gaining since late November, typically considered a bearish factor for the stock market. However, the Dow Jones index, contrary to simple logic, has accelerated its ascent in recent days.
This movement resembles an active short position liquidation. A ruthless analogy to such liquidations was observed in gold with the capitulation peak on December 1st. A reverse situation was seen in April 2020 with negative oil futures prices.
Technically, from current levels, it seems more comfortable to take a bearish stance on Dow Jones, anticipating a potential 5% decline rather than an equivalent increase. Fundamentally, it is also challenging to justify buying stocks, given the expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 150 basis points over the next year while the final demand and corporate profits remain equally strong. #Finance #Stocks #Market #Investments
📈 #Market #Indices #TradingDay
🏛 What's happening today in the market?
🔙 Previous trading day. Indices continued the upward trend, moving near important maximum levels from 2021-2023. SPX maintained its growth momentum, surpassing the July 2023 highs, hovering around the level of 4630. NQ also showed a continuation of the upward trend, moving near the 2021 highs and the level of 16600.
🔆 Today. It is crucial for indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 16000 for NQ and 4560 for SPX to avoid a pullback from current levels and ensure the possibility of further growth if the nearest levels at 16600 for NQ and 4630 for SPX are breached.
🔎 What's driving the market now?
(1) Bond yields and the dollar declined ahead of U.S. economic data.
(2) Traders await U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve meeting this week.
(3) The yen rebounded after its sharpest decline in over a month.
📊 Sectors
Cyclical sectors continued their upward momentum, with XRT, ITA, and XLI leading the upward movement ahead of the market. Growth sectors demonstrated mixed dynamics, with SOXX, XLK, and IBB showing the most significant growth, outperforming the market, while MJ and XLC lagged behind, experiencing a local pullback. Defensive sectors showed growth dynamics, with XLP and XLU bouncing off local trend levels, and XLV breaking through resistance in the form of a local maximum.
💼 Stock News
(+) NVDA - U.S. Department of Commerce Head stated that Nvidia "can, will, and should sell AI chips to China" for commercial purposes.
(+) XLP - HSBC believes that 2024 should be a more normal year for the consumer goods sector after a prolonged downturn.
(=) LLY - Patients taking Eli Lilly's obesity drug, tirzepatide, regained weight after discontinuing therapy.
(+) META - Meta Platforms is BofA's top pick among large-cap companies for the online media sector in 2024.
(+) BA - Boeing received an order for 6 Chinook helicopters from the U.S. Army worth $271 million.
(+) AMZN, GOOGL - According to Goldman Sachs, Amazon and Google will be major winners in the AI race in 2024 and beyond.
(+) AVGO - Broadcom is rising after Citi resumed coverage with a Buy rating, seeing strength in its core business.
(+) OXY - Occidental Petroleum and Devon upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
(+) JETS - Booking trends for airline tickets have strengthened by +10.7% in recent weeks, according to BofA.
(+) NKE - Citi rates Nike as Buy. The bank is more optimistic about Nike's ability to protect profits in 2024 and 2025.
🌐 Intermarket Analysis
Oil attempted a local rebound, approaching resistance at 72.6 and the 50-MA. Bond yields retreated from the edges of the sloping channel and the 4.3% level after an attempt to rise. VIX continues to move near lows after attempts at local growth. Gold is trying to rebound locally from the lower boundary of the rising channel and the 2000 level.
🗣 Market Discussed Topics
Goldman says: "Buy the Dip" if stocks fall after the review of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Unexpectedly strong hiring figures in November led to a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Meanwhile, swap contracts indicate that investors consider a rate cut in March unlikely. After a $4 trillion rally since October, there is a possibility of stock weakening as the market may reassess the future interest rate trajectory. However, any pullback according to this premise will be considered a fakeout and a good opportunity to rebalance or buy on the dip. GS believes in the quality factor, and large caps will be stronger than the market, and despite seemingly high valuations, GS believes there is growth potential. #Investing #Economy
🏛 What's happening today in the market?
🔙 Previous trading day. Indices continued the upward trend, moving near important maximum levels from 2021-2023. SPX maintained its growth momentum, surpassing the July 2023 highs, hovering around the level of 4630. NQ also showed a continuation of the upward trend, moving near the 2021 highs and the level of 16600.
🔆 Today. It is crucial for indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 16000 for NQ and 4560 for SPX to avoid a pullback from current levels and ensure the possibility of further growth if the nearest levels at 16600 for NQ and 4630 for SPX are breached.
🔎 What's driving the market now?
(1) Bond yields and the dollar declined ahead of U.S. economic data.
(2) Traders await U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve meeting this week.
(3) The yen rebounded after its sharpest decline in over a month.
📊 Sectors
Cyclical sectors continued their upward momentum, with XRT, ITA, and XLI leading the upward movement ahead of the market. Growth sectors demonstrated mixed dynamics, with SOXX, XLK, and IBB showing the most significant growth, outperforming the market, while MJ and XLC lagged behind, experiencing a local pullback. Defensive sectors showed growth dynamics, with XLP and XLU bouncing off local trend levels, and XLV breaking through resistance in the form of a local maximum.
💼 Stock News
(+) NVDA - U.S. Department of Commerce Head stated that Nvidia "can, will, and should sell AI chips to China" for commercial purposes.
(+) XLP - HSBC believes that 2024 should be a more normal year for the consumer goods sector after a prolonged downturn.
(=) LLY - Patients taking Eli Lilly's obesity drug, tirzepatide, regained weight after discontinuing therapy.
(+) META - Meta Platforms is BofA's top pick among large-cap companies for the online media sector in 2024.
(+) BA - Boeing received an order for 6 Chinook helicopters from the U.S. Army worth $271 million.
(+) AMZN, GOOGL - According to Goldman Sachs, Amazon and Google will be major winners in the AI race in 2024 and beyond.
(+) AVGO - Broadcom is rising after Citi resumed coverage with a Buy rating, seeing strength in its core business.
(+) OXY - Occidental Petroleum and Devon upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley.
(+) JETS - Booking trends for airline tickets have strengthened by +10.7% in recent weeks, according to BofA.
(+) NKE - Citi rates Nike as Buy. The bank is more optimistic about Nike's ability to protect profits in 2024 and 2025.
🌐 Intermarket Analysis
Oil attempted a local rebound, approaching resistance at 72.6 and the 50-MA. Bond yields retreated from the edges of the sloping channel and the 4.3% level after an attempt to rise. VIX continues to move near lows after attempts at local growth. Gold is trying to rebound locally from the lower boundary of the rising channel and the 2000 level.
🗣 Market Discussed Topics
Goldman says: "Buy the Dip" if stocks fall after the review of Federal Reserve rate cuts. Unexpectedly strong hiring figures in November led to a reassessment of Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Meanwhile, swap contracts indicate that investors consider a rate cut in March unlikely. After a $4 trillion rally since October, there is a possibility of stock weakening as the market may reassess the future interest rate trajectory. However, any pullback according to this premise will be considered a fakeout and a good opportunity to rebalance or buy on the dip. GS believes in the quality factor, and large caps will be stronger than the market, and despite seemingly high valuations, GS believes there is growth potential. #Investing #Economy
In the spotlight today: inflation.
A surge in volatility is expected at the beginning of the trading session, driven by the release of inflation data. The consensus anticipates a 4% year-on-year increase in the core indicator and a 0.3% month-on-month rise (October: +0.2% month-on-month). If the slowdown in consumer inflation persists, it will signal to the market that the Federal Reserve may transition to a more accommodative monetary policy in the second quarter of 2024. It's worth recalling that the previous easing in the Consumer Price Index growth in October sparked an active stock market rally.
Inflation data will be published a day before the conclusion of the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year, influencing the update of the regulator's macroeconomic forecasts. However, even if the statistics confirm the expected inflation slowdown, the Federal Reserve is likely to emphasize the need for further confirmation of trends indicating labor market cooling and inflation reduction for at least several months before considering a change in monetary policy. In this context, the Fed's decision is unlikely to catch investors off guard.
#Inflation #EconomicIndicators #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #MarketVolatility
A surge in volatility is expected at the beginning of the trading session, driven by the release of inflation data. The consensus anticipates a 4% year-on-year increase in the core indicator and a 0.3% month-on-month rise (October: +0.2% month-on-month). If the slowdown in consumer inflation persists, it will signal to the market that the Federal Reserve may transition to a more accommodative monetary policy in the second quarter of 2024. It's worth recalling that the previous easing in the Consumer Price Index growth in October sparked an active stock market rally.
Inflation data will be published a day before the conclusion of the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year, influencing the update of the regulator's macroeconomic forecasts. However, even if the statistics confirm the expected inflation slowdown, the Federal Reserve is likely to emphasize the need for further confirmation of trends indicating labor market cooling and inflation reduction for at least several months before considering a change in monetary policy. In this context, the Fed's decision is unlikely to catch investors off guard.
#Inflation #EconomicIndicators #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #MarketVolatility
📈 Indices continue moving towards highs, maintaining growth near levels of 2021-2023. #market #finance
🔍 What happened in the last trading day? SPX and NQ continued their upward trend, approaching levels of 4655 and 16600 respectively. #trading #stocks
🔆 Today, it's crucial to hold positions above support levels (16000 for NQ, 4560 for SPX) to prevent a pullback and ensure the possibility of further growth. #investing #stockmarket
📊 What's on the market's radar?
1. The Federal Reserve's meeting today.
2. Xi Jinping disappoints investors.
3. The dollar remains stable.
4. Traders closely watching Powell's signals regarding policy. #economy #financialnews
💼 Stock News:
- MSFT develops an innovative AI model.
- SNAP attracts 7 million new subscribers.
- NKE leads in clothing production according to Goldman. #stocks #marketnews
🌐 Intermarket Analysis:
- Oil is declining, approaching levels from the summer of 2023.
- Yield moves along the borders of a sloping channel (4.2%).
- VIX is decreasing towards 2019 levels.
- Gold tests the lower boundary of the growing channel. #globalmarkets #marketanalysis
🗣 Market Discussed Topics:
- The Fed is not ready for rate cuts.
- Expectations of maintaining interest rates at a stable level.
- The Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates in the range of 5.25%-5.5%. #fedreserve #economicnews
🔍 What happened in the last trading day? SPX and NQ continued their upward trend, approaching levels of 4655 and 16600 respectively. #trading #stocks
🔆 Today, it's crucial to hold positions above support levels (16000 for NQ, 4560 for SPX) to prevent a pullback and ensure the possibility of further growth. #investing #stockmarket
📊 What's on the market's radar?
1. The Federal Reserve's meeting today.
2. Xi Jinping disappoints investors.
3. The dollar remains stable.
4. Traders closely watching Powell's signals regarding policy. #economy #financialnews
💼 Stock News:
- MSFT develops an innovative AI model.
- SNAP attracts 7 million new subscribers.
- NKE leads in clothing production according to Goldman. #stocks #marketnews
🌐 Intermarket Analysis:
- Oil is declining, approaching levels from the summer of 2023.
- Yield moves along the borders of a sloping channel (4.2%).
- VIX is decreasing towards 2019 levels.
- Gold tests the lower boundary of the growing channel. #globalmarkets #marketanalysis
🗣 Market Discussed Topics:
- The Fed is not ready for rate cuts.
- Expectations of maintaining interest rates at a stable level.
- The Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates in the range of 5.25%-5.5%. #fedreserve #economicnews
Understanding the US Dollar Index (DXY)
Introduction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a real-time indicator reflecting the dynamics of the US dollar against a basket of other currencies. Widely used, it serves as a common way to track the value of the world's most traded currency and stands as a key market in itself.
What is DXY?
DXY, symbolizing the US Dollar Index, tracks the price of the US dollar against six foreign currencies, aiming to represent its value in global markets. This index rises when the dollar strengthens against other currencies and falls when the dollar weakens.
The index operates by comparing the US dollar's price with six other currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. These currencies were selected when the index was formed in 1974.
How to Calculate the US Dollar Index
To calculate the US Dollar Index, each currency's rate in the basket is multiplied by its weight. Weights ensure that significant currencies, like the euro, have a greater impact on the DXY price compared to less significant currencies, such as the krona.
Today, the following weights are used for calculating the index:
- EUR/USD - 57%
- USD/JPY - 13.6%
- GBP/USD - 11.9%
- USD/CAD - 9.1%
- USD/SEK - 4.2%
- USD/CHF - 3.6%
As seen, the euro-dollar pair is undoubtedly the most influential in the DXY calculation, reflecting its replacement of several European currencies and the EU's status as a key US trading partner.
History of the US Dollar Index
DXY was introduced in 1973 after the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement. It provided markets with the opportunity to determine the value of the world's reserve currency following the end of the gold standard. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has managed the index since 1985.
Historically, DXY has traded in a broad range and, unlike other indices, has not been consistently bullish. In March 1985, it reached a historical high of 164.63, while its lowest point occurred in April 2008 during the financial crisis, reaching 70.63.
Factors Influencing Price Movements of the US Dollar Index
Macroeconomic events, GDP data, the economic condition of each country, and the monetary and fiscal policies of central banks impact DXY prices. Safe-haven demand also influences the index: during global economic crises, traders often view the US dollar as a safe asset, leading to optimism in the index. Conversely, if risk sentiment prevails, and investors sell the dollar for riskier assets, the index may decline.
Why the US Dollar Index Matters for Traders
The US Dollar Index is crucial for traders as both a market and an indicator of the US dollar's relative strength worldwide. It can be used in technical analysis to confirm trends in commodity prices, currency pairs involving the US dollar, stocks, and indices.
As the dollar's value rises, the prices of commodities such as gold (at least nominally) tend to decrease, and vice versa. For currency pairs where the dollar is the base currency, like USD/JPY, they usually move in the same direction as the index. However, for quote currency pairs like EUR/USD, they move inversely. The relationship becomes more complex for stocks and indices, influenced by factors like US exporters' competitiveness and the purchasing power of the dollar.
In conclusion, the US Dollar Index (DXY) serves as a relative measure of the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies. Created in 1973, it remains relevant and can be used as an indicator of the health of the US economy. #USDollarIndex #ForexTrading #FinanceAnalysis #CurrencyMarkets #EconomicIndicators #TradingStrategies #GlobalEconomy #DXYInsights #MarketTrends #FinancialMarkets #InvestingTips #TechnicalAnalysis #CommodityPrices #CurrencyPairs #MarketIndicators #TradingSignals #USDEconomy #SafeHavenAssets #MarketAnalysis #InvestmentStrategies #FinancialNews
Introduction
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a real-time indicator reflecting the dynamics of the US dollar against a basket of other currencies. Widely used, it serves as a common way to track the value of the world's most traded currency and stands as a key market in itself.
What is DXY?
DXY, symbolizing the US Dollar Index, tracks the price of the US dollar against six foreign currencies, aiming to represent its value in global markets. This index rises when the dollar strengthens against other currencies and falls when the dollar weakens.
The index operates by comparing the US dollar's price with six other currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. These currencies were selected when the index was formed in 1974.
How to Calculate the US Dollar Index
To calculate the US Dollar Index, each currency's rate in the basket is multiplied by its weight. Weights ensure that significant currencies, like the euro, have a greater impact on the DXY price compared to less significant currencies, such as the krona.
Today, the following weights are used for calculating the index:
- EUR/USD - 57%
- USD/JPY - 13.6%
- GBP/USD - 11.9%
- USD/CAD - 9.1%
- USD/SEK - 4.2%
- USD/CHF - 3.6%
As seen, the euro-dollar pair is undoubtedly the most influential in the DXY calculation, reflecting its replacement of several European currencies and the EU's status as a key US trading partner.
History of the US Dollar Index
DXY was introduced in 1973 after the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement. It provided markets with the opportunity to determine the value of the world's reserve currency following the end of the gold standard. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has managed the index since 1985.
Historically, DXY has traded in a broad range and, unlike other indices, has not been consistently bullish. In March 1985, it reached a historical high of 164.63, while its lowest point occurred in April 2008 during the financial crisis, reaching 70.63.
Factors Influencing Price Movements of the US Dollar Index
Macroeconomic events, GDP data, the economic condition of each country, and the monetary and fiscal policies of central banks impact DXY prices. Safe-haven demand also influences the index: during global economic crises, traders often view the US dollar as a safe asset, leading to optimism in the index. Conversely, if risk sentiment prevails, and investors sell the dollar for riskier assets, the index may decline.
Why the US Dollar Index Matters for Traders
The US Dollar Index is crucial for traders as both a market and an indicator of the US dollar's relative strength worldwide. It can be used in technical analysis to confirm trends in commodity prices, currency pairs involving the US dollar, stocks, and indices.
As the dollar's value rises, the prices of commodities such as gold (at least nominally) tend to decrease, and vice versa. For currency pairs where the dollar is the base currency, like USD/JPY, they usually move in the same direction as the index. However, for quote currency pairs like EUR/USD, they move inversely. The relationship becomes more complex for stocks and indices, influenced by factors like US exporters' competitiveness and the purchasing power of the dollar.
In conclusion, the US Dollar Index (DXY) serves as a relative measure of the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies. Created in 1973, it remains relevant and can be used as an indicator of the health of the US economy. #USDollarIndex #ForexTrading #FinanceAnalysis #CurrencyMarkets #EconomicIndicators #TradingStrategies #GlobalEconomy #DXYInsights #MarketTrends #FinancialMarkets #InvestingTips #TechnicalAnalysis #CommodityPrices #CurrencyPairs #MarketIndicators #TradingSignals #USDEconomy #SafeHavenAssets #MarketAnalysis #InvestmentStrategies #FinancialNews
FOMC Meeting Takes Center Stage
We anticipate that upcoming trading sessions will be characterized by high intraday volatility with a neutral risk balance. Investors' attention will be focused on the Federal Reserve System's last meeting of the year. The consensus suggests that the key interest rate will remain unchanged.
Investor focus will also be on Jerome Powell's final press conference of the year. We do not expect any changes in his rhetoric. Additionally, new "dot" forecasts of rate dynamics from FOMC representatives will be of interest in terms of clarifying the timeline for the beginning of monetary policy easing. After the previous decision, Jerome Powell reminded investors that the deflation process looks "uneven."
The November Consumer Price Index came in line with forecasts, showing a slight increase, confirming the unstable nature of the return of price growth to the regulator's target of 2%, especially in the services sector, which is concentrated as the "last mile" in the fight against inflation.
#USreview #FOMCmeeting #JeromePowell #Inflation #InterestRates #MarketOutlook
We anticipate that upcoming trading sessions will be characterized by high intraday volatility with a neutral risk balance. Investors' attention will be focused on the Federal Reserve System's last meeting of the year. The consensus suggests that the key interest rate will remain unchanged.
Investor focus will also be on Jerome Powell's final press conference of the year. We do not expect any changes in his rhetoric. Additionally, new "dot" forecasts of rate dynamics from FOMC representatives will be of interest in terms of clarifying the timeline for the beginning of monetary policy easing. After the previous decision, Jerome Powell reminded investors that the deflation process looks "uneven."
The November Consumer Price Index came in line with forecasts, showing a slight increase, confirming the unstable nature of the return of price growth to the regulator's target of 2%, especially in the services sector, which is concentrated as the "last mile" in the fight against inflation.
#USreview #FOMCmeeting #JeromePowell #Inflation #InterestRates #MarketOutlook
The indices demonstrated an increase, moving close to their historical highs...
🏛What's happening in the market today?
🔙In the previous trading day, the indices continued to show a strong upward trend, approaching historical highs. SPX maintains a steady growth within an ascending channel, nearing a test of the highs of 2021. NQ also exhibits sustained growth, updating its historical high and surpassing the level of 16750.
🔆Today. It is crucial for the indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 16200 for NQ and 4600 for SPX to avoid a pullback from current levels and ensure the potential for continued growth upon breaking through the nearest levels at 17000 for NQ and 4817 for SPX.
🔎What is currently driving the market?
(1) According to the dot plot of the Federal Reserve, a 75 basis points reduction in interest rates is expected in 2024.
(2) This has triggered a bullish impulse in the markets due to anticipated inflation decline.
(3) Traders are awaiting meetings of the Bank of England and the ECB later today.
📊Sectors
Cyclical sectors reflect positive market dynamics, with XLRE, XRT, and XLF leading in growth.
Growth sectors have also joined the broad market rally, especially TAN, IBB, MJ, and IPO, showing the highest growth.
Defensive sectors continue their rebound, with XLU, XLV, and XLP gaining upward momentum, breaking through resistance levels.
💼Stock News
(=) ADBE - Adobe released a weaker-than-expected forecast for the upcoming year and stated that the U.S. government is reviewing its subscription practices.
(+) TSLA - New safety measures for Tesla's autopilot may prepare the company for smoother regulation in the future.
(+) GOOGL - Google officially launches Gemini Pro for cloud users.
(+) GE - GE is chosen as the best industrial stock for 2024 by BofA.
(+) MSFT - Truist Securities initiates coverage of Microsoft with a Buy recommendation, setting a target price of $600.
(+) GOOGL - JP Morgan includes Alphabet in its list of top stocks for 2024.
(+) CMG - Chipotle makes venture investments in next-generation agriculture.
(+) AAPL - Apple expands self-repair capabilities, including the iPhone 15 and Mac M2 computers.
(=) PFE - Pfizer loses positions due to disappointing forecasts for 2024 related to the acquisition of Seagen.
(+) GOOGL, META - Google and Meta are among the groups advocating for open digital ecosystems in the EU.
🌐Intermarket Analysis
Oil attempts a local rebound from the lower boundary and the level of 67.7.
Yield continues to move downward in a correction channel, approaching the level of 3.92%.
VIX continues its downward movement near the lows and levels of 2019.
Gold shows fairly decent attempts to rebound from the lower boundary of the channel and the level of 1987.
🗣Market Discussed Topics
Wall Street traders are going all-in in anticipation of the "Great Monetary Pivot" in 2024.
The great monetary pivot is imminent as central banks plan an unprecedented soft landing in the world's largest economy.
This is a general conclusion after the Federal Reserve gave the clearest signal that its historic tightening campaign is over.
Anticipating a more aggressive interest rate cut in 2024 - a process that triggered one of the biggest rallies in recent memory.
This marks a significant paradigm shift on Wall Street, as the most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in decades comes to an end.
The Federal Reserve no longer sees inflation as public enemy number one.
🏛What's happening in the market today?
🔙In the previous trading day, the indices continued to show a strong upward trend, approaching historical highs. SPX maintains a steady growth within an ascending channel, nearing a test of the highs of 2021. NQ also exhibits sustained growth, updating its historical high and surpassing the level of 16750.
🔆Today. It is crucial for the indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 16200 for NQ and 4600 for SPX to avoid a pullback from current levels and ensure the potential for continued growth upon breaking through the nearest levels at 17000 for NQ and 4817 for SPX.
🔎What is currently driving the market?
(1) According to the dot plot of the Federal Reserve, a 75 basis points reduction in interest rates is expected in 2024.
(2) This has triggered a bullish impulse in the markets due to anticipated inflation decline.
(3) Traders are awaiting meetings of the Bank of England and the ECB later today.
📊Sectors
Cyclical sectors reflect positive market dynamics, with XLRE, XRT, and XLF leading in growth.
Growth sectors have also joined the broad market rally, especially TAN, IBB, MJ, and IPO, showing the highest growth.
Defensive sectors continue their rebound, with XLU, XLV, and XLP gaining upward momentum, breaking through resistance levels.
💼Stock News
(=) ADBE - Adobe released a weaker-than-expected forecast for the upcoming year and stated that the U.S. government is reviewing its subscription practices.
(+) TSLA - New safety measures for Tesla's autopilot may prepare the company for smoother regulation in the future.
(+) GOOGL - Google officially launches Gemini Pro for cloud users.
(+) GE - GE is chosen as the best industrial stock for 2024 by BofA.
(+) MSFT - Truist Securities initiates coverage of Microsoft with a Buy recommendation, setting a target price of $600.
(+) GOOGL - JP Morgan includes Alphabet in its list of top stocks for 2024.
(+) CMG - Chipotle makes venture investments in next-generation agriculture.
(+) AAPL - Apple expands self-repair capabilities, including the iPhone 15 and Mac M2 computers.
(=) PFE - Pfizer loses positions due to disappointing forecasts for 2024 related to the acquisition of Seagen.
(+) GOOGL, META - Google and Meta are among the groups advocating for open digital ecosystems in the EU.
🌐Intermarket Analysis
Oil attempts a local rebound from the lower boundary and the level of 67.7.
Yield continues to move downward in a correction channel, approaching the level of 3.92%.
VIX continues its downward movement near the lows and levels of 2019.
Gold shows fairly decent attempts to rebound from the lower boundary of the channel and the level of 1987.
🗣Market Discussed Topics
Wall Street traders are going all-in in anticipation of the "Great Monetary Pivot" in 2024.
The great monetary pivot is imminent as central banks plan an unprecedented soft landing in the world's largest economy.
This is a general conclusion after the Federal Reserve gave the clearest signal that its historic tightening campaign is over.
Anticipating a more aggressive interest rate cut in 2024 - a process that triggered one of the biggest rallies in recent memory.
This marks a significant paradigm shift on Wall Street, as the most aggressive interest rate hiking cycle in decades comes to an end.
The Federal Reserve no longer sees inflation as public enemy number one.
📈 Indices continue to exhibit a bullish impulse, near historical highs...
🏛 What's happening in the market today?
🔙 On the previous trading day, indices continued to show solid upward dynamics, hovering near historical highs, with NQ once again demonstrating relatively stronger momentum. SPX maintained a growth trend within a local channel, reaching levels last seen in December 2021. NQ also showed continued upward momentum, making attempts to refresh its historical high and testing the level of 16893.
🔆 Today. It is crucial for indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 16200 for NQ and 4600 for SPX to avoid a pullback from current levels and ensure the potential for further growth in case of breaking through the nearest levels at 17000 for NQ and 4817 for SPX.
🔎 What's driving the market right now?
(1) The People's Bank of China has reinforced economic support.
(2) Bullish sentiment in the markets continues amid expectations of ongoing Fed rate decisions.
(3) The European Central Bank is not rushing to join the shift in monetary policy seen in the U.S.
📊 Sectors
Cyclical sectors reflect positive market dynamics, with XLE, XLRE, and XRT leading in growth, while ITA lags behind. Most growth sectors rebounded, with TAN, SOXX, and IPO showing the highest gains, and XLK lagging behind. Defensive sectors demonstrated a retracement, with XLP, XLU, and XLV showing weakness relative to the broader market.
💼 Stock News
(+) COST - Costco exceeded profit forecasts and paid special dividends totaling $6.7 billion.
(=) GM, F - Wells Fargo takes a bearish stance on the automotive sector, suggesting the industry may be at its profit peak.
(+) AMZN - Amazon successfully tests laser communication between its Project Kuiper satellites.
(+) GM, F, TSLA - S&P Global forecasts global car sales to exceed 88 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.8%.
(+) GOOGL - Google Chrome tests a feature limiting cross-site tracking and gradually phasing out third-party cookie files.
(+) XRT - Retail sales grew by 0.3% in November compared to October, surpassing expectations of a 0.1% decline for the month.
(+) META - Meta's Threads messaging app launches in Europe.
(+) INTC - Intel unveils its new Gaudi 3 processor at the AI Everywhere event, claiming it surpasses Nvidia.
(+) BABA - Alibaba invests $634 million in Lazada amid competition with TikTok and Sea in Southeast Asia.
(+) AAPL - Apple may outperform the market again in 2024, surpassing the $3 trillion mark, according to Citi.
🌐 Intermarket Analysis
Oil shows a local rebound from the lower boundary, testing the level of 72.2. Yield consolidates above 3.92%, near the lower boundary of the channel after a retracement. VIX attempts a local bounce from the level of 11.8, testing the slope. Gold is in consolidation after local rebound attempts and testing the level of 2062.
🗣 Market Buzz
Oppenheimer has high expectations for the S&P 500 next year amid corporate earnings growth. The firm forecasts the index reaching 5200 by the end of 2024. "Markets don't move up in a straight line, and failures are always possible, but those with patience should see gains in the medium to long term." Oppenheimer believes that profits and revenues will continue to grow during what the firm calls a "transitional year" as the Federal Reserve moves away from its restrictive monetary policy. Cyclical stocks, especially in the technology, telecommunications, and consumer services sectors, are expected to continue thriving next year.
#StockMarket #FinancialMarkets #BullishTrend #EconomicOutlook #Investing #MarketAnalysis
🏛 What's happening in the market today?
🔙 On the previous trading day, indices continued to show solid upward dynamics, hovering near historical highs, with NQ once again demonstrating relatively stronger momentum. SPX maintained a growth trend within a local channel, reaching levels last seen in December 2021. NQ also showed continued upward momentum, making attempts to refresh its historical high and testing the level of 16893.
🔆 Today. It is crucial for indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 16200 for NQ and 4600 for SPX to avoid a pullback from current levels and ensure the potential for further growth in case of breaking through the nearest levels at 17000 for NQ and 4817 for SPX.
🔎 What's driving the market right now?
(1) The People's Bank of China has reinforced economic support.
(2) Bullish sentiment in the markets continues amid expectations of ongoing Fed rate decisions.
(3) The European Central Bank is not rushing to join the shift in monetary policy seen in the U.S.
📊 Sectors
Cyclical sectors reflect positive market dynamics, with XLE, XLRE, and XRT leading in growth, while ITA lags behind. Most growth sectors rebounded, with TAN, SOXX, and IPO showing the highest gains, and XLK lagging behind. Defensive sectors demonstrated a retracement, with XLP, XLU, and XLV showing weakness relative to the broader market.
💼 Stock News
(+) COST - Costco exceeded profit forecasts and paid special dividends totaling $6.7 billion.
(=) GM, F - Wells Fargo takes a bearish stance on the automotive sector, suggesting the industry may be at its profit peak.
(+) AMZN - Amazon successfully tests laser communication between its Project Kuiper satellites.
(+) GM, F, TSLA - S&P Global forecasts global car sales to exceed 88 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.8%.
(+) GOOGL - Google Chrome tests a feature limiting cross-site tracking and gradually phasing out third-party cookie files.
(+) XRT - Retail sales grew by 0.3% in November compared to October, surpassing expectations of a 0.1% decline for the month.
(+) META - Meta's Threads messaging app launches in Europe.
(+) INTC - Intel unveils its new Gaudi 3 processor at the AI Everywhere event, claiming it surpasses Nvidia.
(+) BABA - Alibaba invests $634 million in Lazada amid competition with TikTok and Sea in Southeast Asia.
(+) AAPL - Apple may outperform the market again in 2024, surpassing the $3 trillion mark, according to Citi.
🌐 Intermarket Analysis
Oil shows a local rebound from the lower boundary, testing the level of 72.2. Yield consolidates above 3.92%, near the lower boundary of the channel after a retracement. VIX attempts a local bounce from the level of 11.8, testing the slope. Gold is in consolidation after local rebound attempts and testing the level of 2062.
🗣 Market Buzz
Oppenheimer has high expectations for the S&P 500 next year amid corporate earnings growth. The firm forecasts the index reaching 5200 by the end of 2024. "Markets don't move up in a straight line, and failures are always possible, but those with patience should see gains in the medium to long term." Oppenheimer believes that profits and revenues will continue to grow during what the firm calls a "transitional year" as the Federal Reserve moves away from its restrictive monetary policy. Cyclical stocks, especially in the technology, telecommunications, and consumer services sectors, are expected to continue thriving next year.
#StockMarket #FinancialMarkets #BullishTrend #EconomicOutlook #Investing #MarketAnalysis
Retail sales data in November were surprisingly strong, showing a month-over-month growth of 0.3%, despite consensus expectations of a 0.2% decrease. The October figure was revised downward from -0.1% to -0.2%. Additionally, sales of the control group of goods increased by 0.4%, surpassing expectations of 0.15%. The growth rate for the previous month was also revised down to 0% from 0.2%.
Overall, the release reflects robust consumer activity and signals ongoing economic growth in the fourth quarter. In light of this data, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has raised its GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.6% quarter-over-quarter.
The baseline scenario from analysts at Freedom Finance Global anticipates a 1.5% economic growth in this quarter. Sustained demand could serve as an argument for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at their current level for a longer period. However, it's important to consider the seasonal factor of pre-holiday purchases, which supported sales in November. #EconomicGrowth #RetailSales #FederalReserve #GDPForecast
Overall, the release reflects robust consumer activity and signals ongoing economic growth in the fourth quarter. In light of this data, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta has raised its GDP growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.6% quarter-over-quarter.
The baseline scenario from analysts at Freedom Finance Global anticipates a 1.5% economic growth in this quarter. Sustained demand could serve as an argument for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates at their current level for a longer period. However, it's important to consider the seasonal factor of pre-holiday purchases, which supported sales in November. #EconomicGrowth #RetailSales #FederalReserve #GDPForecast
Anticipated Changes in PMI USA: Decrease from 49.4 to 49.3
The expected decline in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the United States, from 49.4 to 49.3, is generating interest in the financial world. PMI, a measure of business activity in the manufacturing sector, serves as a crucial economic indicator. The projected changes may have an impact on various financial instruments.
Hashtags:
#PMI #Economy #Finance #Stocks #Bonds #Currencies #Commodities #CentralBanks #Forecast #Indicator #FinancialMarkets
The expected decline in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the United States, from 49.4 to 49.3, is generating interest in the financial world. PMI, a measure of business activity in the manufacturing sector, serves as a crucial economic indicator. The projected changes may have an impact on various financial instruments.
Hashtags:
#PMI #Economy #Finance #Stocks #Bonds #Currencies #Commodities #CentralBanks #Forecast #Indicator #FinancialMarkets