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📈 Indices aim to continue their upward momentum, testing resistances...

#Market #Trading #Indices

🏛 What's happening in the market today? For more #freshupdate:

🔙 In the previous trading day, indices showed efforts to sustain positive dynamics, approaching local resistance levels and channel boundaries. The SPX index attempted growth, testing resistance at 4610 and the upper channel boundary. The NQ index also tried to continue its upward movement, successfully breaking through the boundaries of the inclined channel and testing the level of 16117.

🔆 Today, it's crucial for indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 15700 for NQ and 4500 for SPX to prevent a pullback from current levels and ensure the possibility of further growth upon surpassing the nearest levels at 16100 for NQ and 4610 for SPX.

🔎 What factors is the market currently focused on?

(1) China's inflation index dropped at the fastest pace in three years.
(2) Traders await data on inflation in the U.S. and the Federal Reserve's meetings later this week.

#Inflation #FinancialMarkets #Economy

📊 Sectors

Among cyclical sectors, XLE performed the best, bouncing back from local lows. ITA, XLF, and XLY attempted to continue growth in line with the market, while XLRE pulled back and showed less stability.
Among growing sectors, MJ, IPO, XLK, SOXX, and SKYY demonstrated growth, confirming local highs. Meanwhile, IBB and TAN retreated and were less successful.
Among defensive sectors, XLP showed a decline in relative strength compared to the market, testing lows, while XLV and XLU also lagged, showing more stable dynamics.

#Sectors #FinancialMarkets #Trading

💼 Stock News

(+) TSLA, RIVN - Piper Sandler highlights growth prospects for the electric vehicle sector.
(+) GOOGL - The launch of Google Gemini promises a successful 2024 for the company, according to Citi.
(+) BA - Boeing has modified a contract with USSOCOM worth $271.22 million.
(+) BA - China expresses interest in strengthening cooperation with Boeing.
(=) SBUX - Starbucks is ready to resume union negotiations in 2024.
(=) AAPL - Head of iPhone and smartwatch design at Apple is stepping down.
(+) AAPL - Production of iPads by Apple may be moved to Vietnam from China.
(+) MU - Micron reaches a labor agreement with the union at its Idaho plant worth $15 billion.
(=) AVGO - 2024 could be challenging for Broadcom, but Wall Street expects growth in the second half of the year.
(+) QRVO - Qorvo's rating is raised by Morgan Stanley; ratings for Qualcomm and Lam Research are lowered.

#Stocks #Exchange #FinancialNews

🌐 Intermarket Analysis

Oil continues attempts at a local recovery, overcoming inclines and approaching a test of the $72.6 level.
Yield also tries to move upward, approaching the 50-day moving average and incline boundaries.
VIX continues to decline, attempting to refresh lows at the 12.5 level.
Gold continues its correction, moving toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel and the $2000 level.

#GlobalMarkets #Oil #Yield #Gold #FinancialMarkets

🗣 Market Discussions

Stocks are rising on the "liquidity rally," and it is expected they will reach new highs in 2024, according to Fundstrat.

Tom Lee of Fundstrat suggests that stocks will reach new record highs in 2024.
This is tied to the Federal Reserve transitioning to a less restrictive monetary policy, paving the way for a "liquidity rally" in the market.
Lee claims that the S&P 500 index could rise to 5200 by the end of 2024, anticipating potential growth of 13% compared to current levels.
This is associated with expectations of a possible reduction in Fed interest rates next year, as inflation in the economy continues to show a weakening trend.
"The Fed is no longer waging an inflation war but is really transitioning to business cycle management — these are huge changes," says Lee.

#FinancialMarkets #Stocks #Fundstrat #Fed #Liquidity #Forecasts
Understanding the US Dollar Index (DXY)

Introduction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a real-time indicator reflecting the dynamics of the US dollar against a basket of other currencies. Widely used, it serves as a common way to track the value of the world's most traded currency and stands as a key market in itself.

What is DXY?
DXY, symbolizing the US Dollar Index, tracks the price of the US dollar against six foreign currencies, aiming to represent its value in global markets. This index rises when the dollar strengthens against other currencies and falls when the dollar weakens.

The index operates by comparing the US dollar's price with six other currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. These currencies were selected when the index was formed in 1974.

How to Calculate the US Dollar Index
To calculate the US Dollar Index, each currency's rate in the basket is multiplied by its weight. Weights ensure that significant currencies, like the euro, have a greater impact on the DXY price compared to less significant currencies, such as the krona.

Today, the following weights are used for calculating the index:

- EUR/USD - 57%
- USD/JPY - 13.6%
- GBP/USD - 11.9%
- USD/CAD - 9.1%
- USD/SEK - 4.2%
- USD/CHF - 3.6%

As seen, the euro-dollar pair is undoubtedly the most influential in the DXY calculation, reflecting its replacement of several European currencies and the EU's status as a key US trading partner.

History of the US Dollar Index
DXY was introduced in 1973 after the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement. It provided markets with the opportunity to determine the value of the world's reserve currency following the end of the gold standard. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has managed the index since 1985.

Historically, DXY has traded in a broad range and, unlike other indices, has not been consistently bullish. In March 1985, it reached a historical high of 164.63, while its lowest point occurred in April 2008 during the financial crisis, reaching 70.63.

Factors Influencing Price Movements of the US Dollar Index
Macroeconomic events, GDP data, the economic condition of each country, and the monetary and fiscal policies of central banks impact DXY prices. Safe-haven demand also influences the index: during global economic crises, traders often view the US dollar as a safe asset, leading to optimism in the index. Conversely, if risk sentiment prevails, and investors sell the dollar for riskier assets, the index may decline.

Why the US Dollar Index Matters for Traders
The US Dollar Index is crucial for traders as both a market and an indicator of the US dollar's relative strength worldwide. It can be used in technical analysis to confirm trends in commodity prices, currency pairs involving the US dollar, stocks, and indices.

As the dollar's value rises, the prices of commodities such as gold (at least nominally) tend to decrease, and vice versa. For currency pairs where the dollar is the base currency, like USD/JPY, they usually move in the same direction as the index. However, for quote currency pairs like EUR/USD, they move inversely. The relationship becomes more complex for stocks and indices, influenced by factors like US exporters' competitiveness and the purchasing power of the dollar.

In conclusion, the US Dollar Index (DXY) serves as a relative measure of the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies. Created in 1973, it remains relevant and can be used as an indicator of the health of the US economy. #USDollarIndex #ForexTrading #FinanceAnalysis #CurrencyMarkets #EconomicIndicators #TradingStrategies #GlobalEconomy #DXYInsights #MarketTrends #FinancialMarkets #InvestingTips #TechnicalAnalysis #CommodityPrices #CurrencyPairs #MarketIndicators #TradingSignals #USDEconomy #SafeHavenAssets #MarketAnalysis #InvestmentStrategies #FinancialNews
📈 Indices continue to exhibit a bullish impulse, near historical highs...

🏛 What's happening in the market today?

🔙 On the previous trading day, indices continued to show solid upward dynamics, hovering near historical highs, with NQ once again demonstrating relatively stronger momentum. SPX maintained a growth trend within a local channel, reaching levels last seen in December 2021. NQ also showed continued upward momentum, making attempts to refresh its historical high and testing the level of 16893.

🔆 Today. It is crucial for indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 16200 for NQ and 4600 for SPX to avoid a pullback from current levels and ensure the potential for further growth in case of breaking through the nearest levels at 17000 for NQ and 4817 for SPX.

🔎 What's driving the market right now?

(1) The People's Bank of China has reinforced economic support.
(2) Bullish sentiment in the markets continues amid expectations of ongoing Fed rate decisions.
(3) The European Central Bank is not rushing to join the shift in monetary policy seen in the U.S.

📊 Sectors

Cyclical sectors reflect positive market dynamics, with XLE, XLRE, and XRT leading in growth, while ITA lags behind. Most growth sectors rebounded, with TAN, SOXX, and IPO showing the highest gains, and XLK lagging behind. Defensive sectors demonstrated a retracement, with XLP, XLU, and XLV showing weakness relative to the broader market.

💼 Stock News

(+) COST - Costco exceeded profit forecasts and paid special dividends totaling $6.7 billion.
(=) GM, F - Wells Fargo takes a bearish stance on the automotive sector, suggesting the industry may be at its profit peak.
(+) AMZN - Amazon successfully tests laser communication between its Project Kuiper satellites.
(+) GM, F, TSLA - S&P Global forecasts global car sales to exceed 88 million in 2024, with a growth rate of 2.8%.
(+) GOOGL - Google Chrome tests a feature limiting cross-site tracking and gradually phasing out third-party cookie files.
(+) XRT - Retail sales grew by 0.3% in November compared to October, surpassing expectations of a 0.1% decline for the month.
(+) META - Meta's Threads messaging app launches in Europe.
(+) INTC - Intel unveils its new Gaudi 3 processor at the AI Everywhere event, claiming it surpasses Nvidia.
(+) BABA - Alibaba invests $634 million in Lazada amid competition with TikTok and Sea in Southeast Asia.
(+) AAPL - Apple may outperform the market again in 2024, surpassing the $3 trillion mark, according to Citi.

🌐 Intermarket Analysis

Oil shows a local rebound from the lower boundary, testing the level of 72.2. Yield consolidates above 3.92%, near the lower boundary of the channel after a retracement. VIX attempts a local bounce from the level of 11.8, testing the slope. Gold is in consolidation after local rebound attempts and testing the level of 2062.

🗣 Market Buzz

Oppenheimer has high expectations for the S&P 500 next year amid corporate earnings growth. The firm forecasts the index reaching 5200 by the end of 2024. "Markets don't move up in a straight line, and failures are always possible, but those with patience should see gains in the medium to long term." Oppenheimer believes that profits and revenues will continue to grow during what the firm calls a "transitional year" as the Federal Reserve moves away from its restrictive monetary policy. Cyclical stocks, especially in the technology, telecommunications, and consumer services sectors, are expected to continue thriving next year.

#StockMarket #FinancialMarkets #BullishTrend #EconomicOutlook #Investing #MarketAnalysis
Anticipated Changes in PMI USA: Decrease from 49.4 to 49.3

The expected decline in the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of the United States, from 49.4 to 49.3, is generating interest in the financial world. PMI, a measure of business activity in the manufacturing sector, serves as a crucial economic indicator. The projected changes may have an impact on various financial instruments.

Hashtags:
#PMI #Economy #Finance #Stocks #Bonds #Currencies #Commodities #CentralBanks #Forecast #Indicator #FinancialMarkets
How We Use the Information Above

The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a crucial economic indicator that gauges business activity in the manufacturing sector. Derived from procurement managers' surveys, it offers insights into the current state of the industry. In the context of the United States, PMI USA reflects the manufacturing sector's situation in the country.

Measurement of PMI:

- PMI values typically range from 0 to 100.
- Values above 50 indicate expansion in production, while values below 50 signal contraction.
- Higher PMI values are considered indicative of favorable conditions in the manufacturing sector.

Impact of PMI on Financial Instruments:

1. Stocks:
- An increase in PMI can be seen as a positive signal for stocks, especially those concentrated in the manufacturing sector. Business activity growth may suggest promising profit prospects.

2. Bonds:
- Rising PMI may intensify demand for high-yield assets, potentially leading to a decline in bond prices, particularly fixed-income government bonds.

3. Currencies:
- PMI growth can strengthen the national currency, signaling economic stability and attractiveness to investors.

4. Commodities:
- Commodity markets, such as oil and metals, may react to changes in PMI as increased production can boost raw material demand.

5. Central Banks:
- Central bank decisions may hinge on PMI data. A stable economic growth (high PMI) might prompt central banks to consider raising interest rates to curb inflation.

Direct Correlations:

Direct correlations between PMI and financial instruments can be observed, especially in the short term. For instance, a sharp decline in PMI may lead investors to anticipate its impact on company profits, potentially triggering stock sell-offs and a shift toward risk-free assets like government bonds.

It's important to note that financial markets are complex, and many factors can influence their movements. PMI is just one indicator that should be considered in the context of other economic data and geopolitical events. #PMI #Economy #Finance #Stocks #Bonds #Currencies #Commodities #CentralBanks #Forecast #Indicator #FinancialMarkets
"Today's decrease in the total number of drilling rigs in the United States by Baker Hughes to 625 (compared to the previous figure of 626) has captured the attention of experts and investors. This indicator, often considered in the analysis of the oil and gas industry, may impact energy production, employment, and financial markets. #OilandGasIndustry #Economy #FinancialMarkets #BakerHughes #DrillingRigs"
"The number of active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes is a key indicator commonly used to assess the current state of the oil and gas industry. This metric reflects the quantity of drilling rigs actively operating at the present time. The impact of this number can be substantial, and its analysis can provide insights into various aspects of the economy and finance.

Impact on the economy:

1. Oil and gas production: An increase in the number of active drilling rigs typically signals a rise in oil and gas extraction. This can positively impact the economies of countries dependent on revenue from oil and gas resources.

2. Employment: Higher activity in the oil and gas industry leads to the creation of new jobs in the sector, potentially positively influencing overall employment.

3. Investments: An uptick in the number of drilling rigs can stimulate investments in the oil and gas sector, subsequently influencing the investment climate in a country.

Impact on financial instruments:

1. Oil and gas prices: The activity of drilling rigs can influence the supply of oil and gas. Increased activity may lead to higher supply, potentially exerting pressure on oil and gas prices.

2. Energy company stocks: The growth in the number of active drilling rigs is often associated with an increase in the stocks of companies in the oil and gas sector. Investors may monitor this indicator to forecast movements in the stock market.

3. Energy company bonds: Changes in the oil and gas industry can impact the bonds of companies in this sector. Risks and returns are linked to economic conditions and changes in energy resource extraction.

In summary, the number of active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes is a crucial indicator that can provide information about the current state and prospects of the oil and gas industry, and by extension, the economy and financial markets. #OilandGasIndustry #Economy #FinancialMarkets #BakerHughes #DrillingRigs #FreshForecast #FRESHFORECAST"
📈 Tomorrow's Event: Decision on the Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-over-Year (YoY). This index reflects the change in average prices for a consumer basket of goods and services in the Eurozone over the past year compared to the previous year. Its impact spans various financial instruments and markets. #FinancialAnalysis #ConsumerPriceIndex #Eurozone

It is crucial to note that the CPI can be considered an indicator of inflation levels. An increase in the CPI indicates a rise in prices for the consumer basket, which may suggest inflation. Conversely, a decrease in the CPI may indicate deflation, i.e., a decrease in the overall price level. #Inflation #Deflation #FinancialMarkets

Stay tuned for updates to stay informed about significant financial trends and market forecasts! 🌐💼 #Finance #Economics #MarketForecast
📊 The Impact of Eurozone CPI YoY on Various Financial Areas:

1. Currency Markets: The inflation level can influence the euro exchange rate. High inflation may prompt central banks to raise interest rates to curb inflationary pressures, making the euro more attractive to investors and increasing its value in the currency market. #CurrencyMarkets #Inflation #Euro

2. Bonds: Inflation affects the bond market. An increase in inflation can reduce the real value of bonds, especially those with fixed coupons. Investors typically demand higher bond yields to offset losses from inflation. #Bonds #InflationImpact #FinancialMarkets

3. Stocks: The impact of inflation on stock markets can be twofold. High inflation can negatively affect company profits and reduce their real value, impacting stock prices. However, under moderate inflation, rising prices for goods and services may contribute to increased company profits and, consequently, stock prices. #Stocks #InflationEffect #EquityMarkets

4. Gold and Commodities: Investors often view precious metals and commodities as protective assets against inflation. High inflation levels may boost demand for such assets, including gold. #Gold #Commodities #InflationHedge

5. Central Banks: Eurozone central banks may use CPI data to shape their monetary policies. High inflation levels may lead to interest rate hikes, while low inflation may prompt rate cuts. #CentralBanks #MonetaryPolicy #InflationData

It's important to note that the impact of the Consumer Price Index depends on the economic context, the overall direction of central bank policies, and other factors. Market reactions may vary over different time periods and depending on investor expectations. Stay informed to navigate the dynamic financial landscape. 📈💹 #FinancialAnalysis #MarketImpact #EconomicIndicators
# Today: Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) in the USA

Every month, the Conference Board (CB) publishes the Consumer Confidence Index, measuring the confidence of consumers in the economy. This index is based on surveys of households, evaluating their perception of the current economic situation and expectations for the future.

## Impact on Financial Instruments:

1. Stocks
Increased consumer confidence can stimulate the rise of stock prices. Confident consumers are generally more inclined to consume, positively affecting company profits.

2. Consumer Loans
A rise in consumer confidence may contribute to increased consumer spending and loans, influencing the market for consumer credit and banking products.

3. Currency Market
Changes in the consumer confidence index can impact the currency market by affecting domestic demand and economic activity.

4. Bonds
With increased consumer confidence, investors may pay more attention to risky assets, potentially reducing demand for safe investments such as government bonds.

5. Consumer Companies
Companies directly linked to the consumer sector may be influenced by changes in the Consumer Confidence Index, affecting their shareholder value.

Investors and traders closely monitor the Consumer Confidence Index as it provides crucial insights into the current state of the economy and future trends in consumer demand. A proper understanding of these factors helps make more informed decisions in financial markets. #ConsumerConfidenceIndex #CCI #FinancialMarkets #Economy #Investments #Stocks #Loans #CurrencyMarket #Bonds #ConsumerCompanies #ConferenceBoard #Today'sInsights
Title: Understanding U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ) Growth and Its Impact on Economic Metrics and Financial Instruments

Introduction:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a crucial economic indicator that reflects the overall health and performance of a country's economy. The Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ) growth rate of U.S. GDP provides valuable insights into the nation's economic trajectory. This article aims to delve into the significance of this metric and explore its influence on various economic measures and financial instruments.

What is U.S. GDP QoQ?
The GDP QoQ growth rate measures the percentage change in the value of goods and services produced in the United States over a specific quarter compared to the previous quarter. It serves as a key indicator of economic expansion or contraction during short-term periods.

Impact on Economic Metrics:

1. Economic Growth: A positive GDP QoQ indicates economic expansion, signaling a healthy and growing economy. Conversely, a negative growth rate suggests a contraction, possibly leading to economic challenges.

2. Employment Levels: GDP growth is closely tied to job creation. A thriving economy with positive QoQ GDP growth often leads to increased employment opportunities, contributing to lower unemployment rates.

3. Consumer Confidence: GDP QoQ figures can influence consumer confidence. Positive growth often boosts consumer optimism, leading to increased spending and investment, while negative growth may have the opposite effect.

4. Inflationary Pressures: The relationship between GDP growth and inflation is intricate. Strong GDP growth may lead to increased demand, potentially triggering inflationary pressures. On the contrary, negative growth may contribute to deflationary concerns.

Impact on Financial Instruments:

1. Equity Markets: U.S. GDP QoQ growth has a substantial impact on equity markets. Positive growth is generally associated with higher corporate profits, positively influencing stock prices. Conversely, negative growth may lead to market declines.

2. Fixed Income Securities: Bond markets are sensitive to economic conditions. In a growing economy, interest rates may rise, affecting the prices of fixed-income securities. Conversely, economic contraction may lead to lower interest rates and increased bond prices.

3. Currency Markets: GDP QoQ figures influence the value of the U.S. dollar in currency markets. Positive growth may strengthen the dollar, while negative growth could lead to a weaker currency.

4. Commodities: Economic growth affects the demand for commodities. A growing economy typically results in increased demand for raw materials, impacting commodity prices. Conversely, economic contraction may lead to lower demand and reduced commodity prices.

Conclusion:
Monitoring U.S. GDP QoQ growth is essential for understanding the dynamics of the nation's economy. Investors, policymakers, and analysts closely watch these figures to make informed decisions. The impact of GDP growth extends beyond economic metrics, influencing a wide array of financial instruments and markets. As a fundamental indicator, U.S. GDP QoQ growth plays a pivotal role in shaping the overall economic narrative.

#USGDP #EconomicIndicators #FinancialMarkets #GDPQoQ #EconomicAnalysis #Investing #FinanceInsights
Key Economic Indicators and Potential Market Impact Today

1. Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) (December):
*Actual: 2.9%, Forecast: 3.0%, Previous: 2.4%*

Data on the Eurozone Consumer Price Index reflects the year-on-year inflation for December. If inflation figures fall below expectations, concerns about economic growth may arise, impacting the Euro (EUR) and potentially affecting European stocks.

*Potential Instruments: EUR/USD, Eurozone Stock Indices*

2. US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) and Nonfarm Payrolls (December):
*Average Hourly Earnings: 0.3%, Forecast: 0.4%*
*Nonfarm Payrolls: 170K, Forecast: 199K*

Indicators of the US labor market, including wage growth and nonfarm payrolls, can influence the US Dollar (USD) and global investment activity. Figures surpassing expectations may strengthen the dollar and instill confidence in the US economy.

*Potential Instruments: USD pairs (e.g., EUR/USD, USD/JPY), US Stock Indices*

3. US Unemployment Rate (December):
*Actual: 3.8%, Forecast: 3.7%*

Changes in the unemployment rate provide insights into the overall state of the US labor market. A lower unemployment rate is generally seen as a positive signal for the economy and may support the US Dollar.

*Potential Instruments: USD pairs, US Stock Indices*

4. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Prices (December):
*ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: 52.6, Forecast: 52.7*
*ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices: 58.3*

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI reflects the economic condition of the US services sector. A value above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction. Figures exceeding expectations may support the US Dollar, while lower values could have the opposite effect.

*Potential Instruments: USD pairs, US Dollar Index (DXY), US Treasury Securities*

#Forex #EconomicIndicators #TradingNews #USD #EUR #StockMarket #Investing #Inflation #Employment #PMI #FinancialMarkets
Financial News: Anticipated CPI and Unemployment Data in the U.S. on January 11, 2024

Tomorrow, January 11, 2024, at 16:30 Moscow time, investors will be closely watching the release of crucial data from the U.S., which could impact financial markets.

Consumer Price Index (CPI):

According to forecasts, in December, the month-on-month CPI is expected to increase by 0.3%, matching the previous month. The annual CPI growth is projected to reach 3.2%, exceeding the previous reading of 3.1%. These figures may significantly influence currency pairs, including EUR/USD and USD/JPY, potentially strengthening the U.S. dollar.

Unemployment:

Also at 16:30, data on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits will be published. The estimated number of claims is 210,000, compared to the previous figure of 202,000. This data can impact stock markets and shares of companies, particularly in the employment-sensitive sectors. Investors may keep an eye on indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq.

Potential Impact on Instruments:

If the forecasts are confirmed, a strengthening of the U.S. dollar is expected. Investors considering currency transactions may monitor changes in the currency market. Shares of companies, especially those sensitive to changes in employment, may also react to the unemployment data.

#CPI #Dollar #Unemployment #FinancialMarkets #EconomicData