USDJPY
Key Event: 15:30 GMT+3. USD - Initial Jobless Claims
Current Price: 154.00
Analysis: The USD/JPY pair pared losses and traded near 154.00 in early Asian trading on Thursday. Weaker US CPI inflation data weighed on the US dollar (USD). The pair is recovering slightly from recent weaker-than-expected Japanese Q1 2024 GDP data. Japan's economy contracted in the first three months of 2024, according to data released by the Cabinet Office on Thursday. Japan's preliminary GDP shrank 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, from 0.1% growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, weaker than expectations of a 0.4% contraction. Year-on-year, GDP shrank 2.0% compared with forecasts of a 1.5% contraction and a 0.4% expansion earlier. The Japanese yen (JPY) is attracting some sellers after the weaker-than-expected Japanese GDP growth figure. US CPI inflation eased to 3.4% year-on-year in April from 3.5% in March, in line with market expectations. Core CPI inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 3.6% year-on-year in April from the previous 3.8%, matching consensus, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday. Additionally, US retail sales were unchanged in April after rising 3% in March, below the market consensus forecast of 0.4%. The softer inflation data raised the odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in 2024. Financial markets are waiting for further evidence of improvement in inflation data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that US inflation could be more persistent than expected, forcing the Fed to keep rates on hold longer to achieve its 2% target. Investors priced in an almost 72% chance of a Fed rate cut in September 2024, up from 65% before the US CPI data release, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The pair is expected to trade higher towards 154.20. Sell orders are recommended at 153.70.
Key Event: 15:30 GMT+3. USD - Initial Jobless Claims
Current Price: 154.00
Analysis: The USD/JPY pair pared losses and traded near 154.00 in early Asian trading on Thursday. Weaker US CPI inflation data weighed on the US dollar (USD). The pair is recovering slightly from recent weaker-than-expected Japanese Q1 2024 GDP data. Japan's economy contracted in the first three months of 2024, according to data released by the Cabinet Office on Thursday. Japan's preliminary GDP shrank 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter, from 0.1% growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, weaker than expectations of a 0.4% contraction. Year-on-year, GDP shrank 2.0% compared with forecasts of a 1.5% contraction and a 0.4% expansion earlier. The Japanese yen (JPY) is attracting some sellers after the weaker-than-expected Japanese GDP growth figure. US CPI inflation eased to 3.4% year-on-year in April from 3.5% in March, in line with market expectations. Core CPI inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 3.6% year-on-year in April from the previous 3.8%, matching consensus, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday. Additionally, US retail sales were unchanged in April after rising 3% in March, below the market consensus forecast of 0.4%. The softer inflation data raised the odds of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in 2024. Financial markets are waiting for further evidence of improvement in inflation data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that US inflation could be more persistent than expected, forcing the Fed to keep rates on hold longer to achieve its 2% target. Investors priced in an almost 72% chance of a Fed rate cut in September 2024, up from 65% before the US CPI data release, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The pair is expected to trade higher towards 154.20. Sell orders are recommended at 153.70.
### Fundamental Analysis of Forex Market on May 20, 2024
#### EURUSD
The EURUSD pair is trading stronger around 1.0880 early Monday during the Asian session. The main factor for the pair's rise is the weakening of the US dollar. On Monday, speeches from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are scheduled, which might influence the market. The key event in the Eurozone this week is the preliminary PMI for May, to be released on Thursday. Although inflationary pressure eased in April, this progress is unlikely to prompt the Fed to lower interest rates soon. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that more data is needed to ensure inflation is steadily declining towards the 2% target. Several Fed officials have emphasized the need to maintain high rates for an extended period.
Trade Recommendation: Buy from the current price levels.
#### GBPUSD
The GBPUSD pair continues to rise for the second consecutive session, trading around 1.2710 early Monday during the Asian session. The weakening US dollar supports the pair. April data showed that US consumer inflation slowed to 0.3%, increasing expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September has slightly increased to 49.0%. However, Fed officials continue to express cautious views regarding inflation and potential rate cuts.
Trade Recommendation: Buy from the level of 1.2700.
#### USDJPY
The USDJPY pair is trading positively for the third consecutive day around 155.80 early Monday during the Asian session. The pair is supported by weak GDP data from Japan for the first quarter. Speeches from Fed officials are also expected today, and the FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday. The main focus on Friday will be the Japanese national Consumer Price Index (CPI). The significant interest rate differential between the US and Japan continues to pressure the yen.
Trade Recommendation: Sell from the current price levels.
#### General Notes
Closely monitor speeches from Fed officials and the release of macroeconomic data, which can significantly influence market sentiment and the movement of currency pairs.
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#### EURUSD
The EURUSD pair is trading stronger around 1.0880 early Monday during the Asian session. The main factor for the pair's rise is the weakening of the US dollar. On Monday, speeches from several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are scheduled, which might influence the market. The key event in the Eurozone this week is the preliminary PMI for May, to be released on Thursday. Although inflationary pressure eased in April, this progress is unlikely to prompt the Fed to lower interest rates soon. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that more data is needed to ensure inflation is steadily declining towards the 2% target. Several Fed officials have emphasized the need to maintain high rates for an extended period.
Trade Recommendation: Buy from the current price levels.
#### GBPUSD
The GBPUSD pair continues to rise for the second consecutive session, trading around 1.2710 early Monday during the Asian session. The weakening US dollar supports the pair. April data showed that US consumer inflation slowed to 0.3%, increasing expectations of a potential Fed rate cut in 2024. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September has slightly increased to 49.0%. However, Fed officials continue to express cautious views regarding inflation and potential rate cuts.
Trade Recommendation: Buy from the level of 1.2700.
#### USDJPY
The USDJPY pair is trading positively for the third consecutive day around 155.80 early Monday during the Asian session. The pair is supported by weak GDP data from Japan for the first quarter. Speeches from Fed officials are also expected today, and the FOMC meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday. The main focus on Friday will be the Japanese national Consumer Price Index (CPI). The significant interest rate differential between the US and Japan continues to pressure the yen.
Trade Recommendation: Sell from the current price levels.
#### General Notes
Closely monitor speeches from Fed officials and the release of macroeconomic data, which can significantly influence market sentiment and the movement of currency pairs.
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Today, at 21:00 GMT+3, the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve is highly anticipated. This event could significantly impact the major currency pairs.
### EUR/USD
Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading around the 1.0850 mark. Key factors affecting this pair include:
1. Federal Reserve's Position: The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious approach towards inflation and the possibility of rate cuts in 2024. Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, emphasized the importance of patience and stated that adjustments to interest rates will take more time.
2. Market Expectations: Financial markets expect the first rate cut to occur no earlier than September, with two more quarter-point cuts anticipated by the end of the year.
3. Eurozone Trade Balance Data: Eurostat reported a trade surplus of €24.1 billion, exceeding forecasts and marking the largest surplus since December 2020.
Recommendation: Predominantly trade with Buy orders at current price levels.
### GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.2710. Key factors include:
1. Bank of England Statements: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey noted that the next move on rates would be a cut, anticipating a drop in inflation.
2. Inflation Data: The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to decrease to 3.6% in April from 4.2% in March. Higher figures could delay the timing of the rate cut and support the pound.
3. Federal Reserve's Position: Christopher Waller mentioned that he doesn't see a need for further rate hikes and requires convincing data before supporting a rate cut. Raphael Bostic also emphasized caution regarding the timing of the first rate hike.
Recommendation: Predominantly trade with Buy orders at current price levels.
### USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair has shown movement favoring a stronger US dollar. Key factors include:
1. Japan Trade Balance Data: Japan's trade deficit in April was ¥462.5 billion, exceeding market expectations.
2. Increase in Exports and Imports: Exports grew by 8.3%, falling short of forecasts, while imports also increased by 8.3%, reaching a four-month high.
3. Rising US Treasury Yields: This supported the dollar ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes release.
Recommendation: Predominantly trade with Buy orders at current price levels.
These fundamental factors and the anticipation of the FOMC meeting minutes create favorable conditions for trading the mentioned pairs, with a preference for buying at current levels.
### EUR/USD
Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading around the 1.0850 mark. Key factors affecting this pair include:
1. Federal Reserve's Position: The Federal Reserve maintains a cautious approach towards inflation and the possibility of rate cuts in 2024. Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, emphasized the importance of patience and stated that adjustments to interest rates will take more time.
2. Market Expectations: Financial markets expect the first rate cut to occur no earlier than September, with two more quarter-point cuts anticipated by the end of the year.
3. Eurozone Trade Balance Data: Eurostat reported a trade surplus of €24.1 billion, exceeding forecasts and marking the largest surplus since December 2020.
Recommendation: Predominantly trade with Buy orders at current price levels.
### GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.2710. Key factors include:
1. Bank of England Statements: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey noted that the next move on rates would be a cut, anticipating a drop in inflation.
2. Inflation Data: The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to decrease to 3.6% in April from 4.2% in March. Higher figures could delay the timing of the rate cut and support the pound.
3. Federal Reserve's Position: Christopher Waller mentioned that he doesn't see a need for further rate hikes and requires convincing data before supporting a rate cut. Raphael Bostic also emphasized caution regarding the timing of the first rate hike.
Recommendation: Predominantly trade with Buy orders at current price levels.
### USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair has shown movement favoring a stronger US dollar. Key factors include:
1. Japan Trade Balance Data: Japan's trade deficit in April was ¥462.5 billion, exceeding market expectations.
2. Increase in Exports and Imports: Exports grew by 8.3%, falling short of forecasts, while imports also increased by 8.3%, reaching a four-month high.
3. Rising US Treasury Yields: This supported the dollar ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes release.
Recommendation: Predominantly trade with Buy orders at current price levels.
These fundamental factors and the anticipation of the FOMC meeting minutes create favorable conditions for trading the mentioned pairs, with a preference for buying at current levels.
### FreshForex Fundamental Analysis, May 23, 2024
#### Key Events to Watch Today:
- EUR: Composite PMI (11:00 GMT+3)
- USD: Initial Jobless Claims (15:30 GMT+3)
- USD: Composite PMI (16:45 GMT+3)
- GBP: Composite PMI (11:30 GMT+3)
### Overview of Major Currency Pairs
#### EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair is attempting to break its three-day losing streak, hovering around the 1.0820 mark during the Asian session on Thursday. This strengthening of the euro against the US dollar can be attributed to a correction in the latter. Investors are likely to focus on PMI data from the Eurozone and Germany, and then shift their attention to the US PMI data set to be released later in the North American session.
Forecasts:
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: Expected to rise to 46.2 from 45.7
- Eurozone Services PMI: Expected to see a slight increase to 53.5 from 53.3
- US PMI: Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to remain unchanged at 50.0 and 51.3, respectively
Risks for the Euro:
- Potential rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its June meeting, linked to the current inflation level in the Eurozone (2.4%).
Recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price levels.
#### GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair continues its rally, trading near the 1.2720 mark during the early Asian session on Thursday. This growth is driven by higher-than-expected UK CPI inflation data, which has reduced the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in June.
Data:
- The FOMC meeting minutes showed that Fed officials are concerned about persistent inflation, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts.
- UK CPI inflation in April decreased less than expected to 2.3% from 3.2% in March.
Recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price levels.
#### USD/JPY
The Japanese yen (JPY) remained stable despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announcing on Thursday that it kept the volume of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) unchanged compared to the previous operation. Over a month ago, the BoJ reduced the volume of purchases of 5-10 year bonds during a planned operation. The yen avoided impact from Japan's PMI data, which showed that private sector growth reached a nine-month high in May as manufacturing activity returned to growth. The US dollar (USD) remains somewhat sluggish ahead of the US PMI data set to be released on Thursday. However, the dollar strengthened on Wednesday following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes.
Data:
- Japan's PMI data indicated strong private sector growth.
- The FOMC minutes confirmed Fed officials' concerns about persistent inflation, making them cautious about rate cuts.
Recommendation: Consider buying if the price holds above 156.80, and look to sell on a pullback.
### General Recommendations:
- EUR/USD: Mainly Sell from current levels.
- GBP/USD: Mainly Buy from current levels.
- USD/JPY: Buy if holding above 156.80, sell on pullbacks.
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#### Key Events to Watch Today:
- EUR: Composite PMI (11:00 GMT+3)
- USD: Initial Jobless Claims (15:30 GMT+3)
- USD: Composite PMI (16:45 GMT+3)
- GBP: Composite PMI (11:30 GMT+3)
### Overview of Major Currency Pairs
#### EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair is attempting to break its three-day losing streak, hovering around the 1.0820 mark during the Asian session on Thursday. This strengthening of the euro against the US dollar can be attributed to a correction in the latter. Investors are likely to focus on PMI data from the Eurozone and Germany, and then shift their attention to the US PMI data set to be released later in the North American session.
Forecasts:
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: Expected to rise to 46.2 from 45.7
- Eurozone Services PMI: Expected to see a slight increase to 53.5 from 53.3
- US PMI: Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to remain unchanged at 50.0 and 51.3, respectively
Risks for the Euro:
- Potential rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) at its June meeting, linked to the current inflation level in the Eurozone (2.4%).
Recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price levels.
#### GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair continues its rally, trading near the 1.2720 mark during the early Asian session on Thursday. This growth is driven by higher-than-expected UK CPI inflation data, which has reduced the likelihood of a rate cut by the Bank of England (BoE) in June.
Data:
- The FOMC meeting minutes showed that Fed officials are concerned about persistent inflation, reducing the likelihood of near-term rate cuts.
- UK CPI inflation in April decreased less than expected to 2.3% from 3.2% in March.
Recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price levels.
#### USD/JPY
The Japanese yen (JPY) remained stable despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announcing on Thursday that it kept the volume of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) unchanged compared to the previous operation. Over a month ago, the BoJ reduced the volume of purchases of 5-10 year bonds during a planned operation. The yen avoided impact from Japan's PMI data, which showed that private sector growth reached a nine-month high in May as manufacturing activity returned to growth. The US dollar (USD) remains somewhat sluggish ahead of the US PMI data set to be released on Thursday. However, the dollar strengthened on Wednesday following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes.
Data:
- Japan's PMI data indicated strong private sector growth.
- The FOMC minutes confirmed Fed officials' concerns about persistent inflation, making them cautious about rate cuts.
Recommendation: Consider buying if the price holds above 156.80, and look to sell on a pullback.
### General Recommendations:
- EUR/USD: Mainly Sell from current levels.
- GBP/USD: Mainly Buy from current levels.
- USD/JPY: Buy if holding above 156.80, sell on pullbacks.
Bonus Offers: Utilize bonus funds to increase profits or withstand sudden drawdowns. Activate the 101% drawdown bonus.
For more detailed analytical reviews, visit the FreshForex website.
FreshForex analytical reviews:
1. EUR/USD: It is anticipated that the EUR/USD pair will continue to decline, supported by the strengthening of the US dollar. This is based on the dollar's rise, supported by positive economic data from the US. Trading recommendation: Preferably sell from current price levels.
2. GBP/USD: In this case, the GBP/USD pair is also declining due to the strengthening of the US dollar and reduced expectations regarding the Bank of England's rate cut next month. Trading recommendation: Monitor the level of 1.2700 and initiate sell positions on a bounce from this level.
3. USD/JPY: In contrast to the previous pairs, here the USD/JPY pair is forecasted to rise, based on the weakening of the Japanese yen and the strengthening of the US dollar. Trading recommendation: Preferably initiate buy positions from current price levels.
Each analysis contains a link to additional reviews on the FreshForex website for a deeper analysis of the market situation.
1. EUR/USD: It is anticipated that the EUR/USD pair will continue to decline, supported by the strengthening of the US dollar. This is based on the dollar's rise, supported by positive economic data from the US. Trading recommendation: Preferably sell from current price levels.
2. GBP/USD: In this case, the GBP/USD pair is also declining due to the strengthening of the US dollar and reduced expectations regarding the Bank of England's rate cut next month. Trading recommendation: Monitor the level of 1.2700 and initiate sell positions on a bounce from this level.
3. USD/JPY: In contrast to the previous pairs, here the USD/JPY pair is forecasted to rise, based on the weakening of the Japanese yen and the strengthening of the US dollar. Trading recommendation: Preferably initiate buy positions from current price levels.
Each analysis contains a link to additional reviews on the FreshForex website for a deeper analysis of the market situation.
### EUR/USD Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading around the 1.0850 mark. The euro is supported by a stronger-than-expected preliminary Eurozone PMI for May. However, the potential for the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates in the coming months might limit the euro's growth. A rate cut as early as June is anticipated, as ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested. Positive U.S. economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials may strengthen the dollar and push the EUR/USD pair lower.
Trading Recommendation: Monitor the 1.0850 level. Buy positions can be taken on a bounce from this level. If the level breaks and holds below, sell positions should be considered.
### GBP/USD Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is rising for the second consecutive session, trading around 1.2740. The growth is driven by "risk-on" market sentiment, despite reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut. In the UK, retail sales data was worse than expected, but inflation is nearing the Bank of England's target, potentially reducing the likelihood of a rate cut and supporting the pound.
Trading Recommendation: Buy at 1.2760 and sell at 1.2710.
### USD/JPY Analysis
The USD/JPY pair has stabilized after comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda about progress in raising inflation expectations. The BoJ continues to aim for a 2% inflation target. The decrease in the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds also puts pressure on the dollar.
Trading Recommendation: Monitor the 156.70 level. Sell positions can be taken on a bounce from this level. If the level breaks and holds above, buy positions should be considered.
These recommendations help traders devise strategies for the near term, considering the current economic and political factors influencing these currency pairs.
The EUR/USD pair is trading around the 1.0850 mark. The euro is supported by a stronger-than-expected preliminary Eurozone PMI for May. However, the potential for the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates in the coming months might limit the euro's growth. A rate cut as early as June is anticipated, as ECB President Christine Lagarde suggested. Positive U.S. economic data and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials may strengthen the dollar and push the EUR/USD pair lower.
Trading Recommendation: Monitor the 1.0850 level. Buy positions can be taken on a bounce from this level. If the level breaks and holds below, sell positions should be considered.
### GBP/USD Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is rising for the second consecutive session, trading around 1.2740. The growth is driven by "risk-on" market sentiment, despite reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut. In the UK, retail sales data was worse than expected, but inflation is nearing the Bank of England's target, potentially reducing the likelihood of a rate cut and supporting the pound.
Trading Recommendation: Buy at 1.2760 and sell at 1.2710.
### USD/JPY Analysis
The USD/JPY pair has stabilized after comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda about progress in raising inflation expectations. The BoJ continues to aim for a 2% inflation target. The decrease in the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds also puts pressure on the dollar.
Trading Recommendation: Monitor the 156.70 level. Sell positions can be taken on a bounce from this level. If the level breaks and holds above, buy positions should be considered.
These recommendations help traders devise strategies for the near term, considering the current economic and political factors influencing these currency pairs.
This evening at 21:00 GMT+3, the Federal Reserve's regional economic survey, known as the "Beige Book," will be released. This survey is crucial for understanding the current economic situation in the U.S. and can influence market expectations regarding the Fed's future actions. Let's look at current trading recommendations for major currency pairs based on the latest market data and upcoming events.
### EURUSD
The Euro-Dollar pair hit an intraday high near 1.0890 on Tuesday before falling back to around 1.0860. Investors are cautious, awaiting German inflation data and the U.S. GDP release for Q1, which is forecasted to drop to 1.3%.
Trading Recommendation: Trade within the 1.0840-1.0890 range, buying on rebounds from these levels.
### GBPUSD
The Pound-Dollar pair is trading around 1.2760 with moderate losses due to the strengthening U.S. dollar and expectations of the Fed's rate cuts. Meanwhile, expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England are putting pressure on the pound. Political uncertainty in the UK could also impact the pair's movement.
Trading Recommendation: Primarily sell at the current price level.
### USDJPY
The Japanese yen continues to weaken amid broader market risk aversion and the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan. The U.S. dollar is strengthening due to hawkish comments from Fed members.
Trading Recommendation: Primarily buy at the current price level.
### Key Events:
1. Federal Reserve's Beige Book (21:00 GMT+3) - This report could influence future rate expectations and economic policy.
2. U.S. Q1 GDP (Thursday) - Expected to drop to 1.3%.
3. U.S. PCE Price Index Inflation (Friday) - Forecasted at 0.3% m/m.
### Inflation Expectations:
- Germany: Inflation is expected to decrease to 0.2% m/m, potentially influencing ECB policy.
- U.S.: PCE Price Index inflation is expected to remain at 0.3% m/m, critical for determining future Fed monetary policy.
### Conclusion
Given the current market expectations and upcoming economic data releases, investors are advised to closely monitor the Beige Book and key economic indicators to adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
### EURUSD
The Euro-Dollar pair hit an intraday high near 1.0890 on Tuesday before falling back to around 1.0860. Investors are cautious, awaiting German inflation data and the U.S. GDP release for Q1, which is forecasted to drop to 1.3%.
Trading Recommendation: Trade within the 1.0840-1.0890 range, buying on rebounds from these levels.
### GBPUSD
The Pound-Dollar pair is trading around 1.2760 with moderate losses due to the strengthening U.S. dollar and expectations of the Fed's rate cuts. Meanwhile, expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England are putting pressure on the pound. Political uncertainty in the UK could also impact the pair's movement.
Trading Recommendation: Primarily sell at the current price level.
### USDJPY
The Japanese yen continues to weaken amid broader market risk aversion and the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan. The U.S. dollar is strengthening due to hawkish comments from Fed members.
Trading Recommendation: Primarily buy at the current price level.
### Key Events:
1. Federal Reserve's Beige Book (21:00 GMT+3) - This report could influence future rate expectations and economic policy.
2. U.S. Q1 GDP (Thursday) - Expected to drop to 1.3%.
3. U.S. PCE Price Index Inflation (Friday) - Forecasted at 0.3% m/m.
### Inflation Expectations:
- Germany: Inflation is expected to decrease to 0.2% m/m, potentially influencing ECB policy.
- U.S.: PCE Price Index inflation is expected to remain at 0.3% m/m, critical for determining future Fed monetary policy.
### Conclusion
Given the current market expectations and upcoming economic data releases, investors are advised to closely monitor the Beige Book and key economic indicators to adjust their trading strategies accordingly.
### Fundamental Analysis by FreshForex (May 31, 2024)
#### Events to Watch Today:
- 12:00 GMT+3, EUR - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- 15:30 GMT+3, USD - Change in Personal Income/Spending
### Currency Pair Analysis:
#### EUR/USD:
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.0790 but then recovered as broad market sentiment caused the dollar to weaken. US GDP growth aligned with market expectations, bolstering hopes for a Fed rate cut. Key data releases today include the Eurozone's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
Trading Recommendations:
- Buy at 1.0840
- Sell at 1.0795
#### GBP/USD:
The GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.2720 in early Asian session. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is under selling pressure, supporting the pair. Investors await the US Core PCE index release. Expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut are putting pressure on the pound, although reduced rate cut expectations have provided some support.
Trading Recommendations:
- Buy at 1.2770
- Sell at 1.2700
#### USD/JPY:
The Japanese yen remains stable after the release of the CPI data, which showed an annual increase to 2.2% in May. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its entrenched monetary policy, which continues to pressure the yen. The upcoming release of the US Core PCE index is crucial for the US dollar.
Trading Recommendations:
- Buy at 157.00
- Sell at 156.30
### Key Economic Indicators:
1. Eurozone:
- May Core HICP expected at 2.8% (previous: 2.7%)
- Annual Core HICP expected at 2.5% (previous: 2.4%)
2. USA:
- Yearly Core PCE price index (April) expected at 2.8%
- Monthly Core PCE price index (April) expected at 0.3%
- Q1 GDP growth decreased to 1.3% (previous: 1.6%)
### Trading Strategies and Recommendations:
For effective trading amid the current macroeconomic environment, FreshForex recommends opening buy and sell orders at the specified levels. Depositing with cryptocurrency offers an additional 10% bonus on the first deposit, which can help increase trading volumes and manage drawdowns.
For more detailed analysis and recommendations, visit FreshForex's website.
#### Events to Watch Today:
- 12:00 GMT+3, EUR - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
- 15:30 GMT+3, USD - Change in Personal Income/Spending
### Currency Pair Analysis:
#### EUR/USD:
On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.0790 but then recovered as broad market sentiment caused the dollar to weaken. US GDP growth aligned with market expectations, bolstering hopes for a Fed rate cut. Key data releases today include the Eurozone's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index.
Trading Recommendations:
- Buy at 1.0840
- Sell at 1.0795
#### GBP/USD:
The GBP/USD pair is trading near 1.2720 in early Asian session. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is under selling pressure, supporting the pair. Investors await the US Core PCE index release. Expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut are putting pressure on the pound, although reduced rate cut expectations have provided some support.
Trading Recommendations:
- Buy at 1.2770
- Sell at 1.2700
#### USD/JPY:
The Japanese yen remains stable after the release of the CPI data, which showed an annual increase to 2.2% in May. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its entrenched monetary policy, which continues to pressure the yen. The upcoming release of the US Core PCE index is crucial for the US dollar.
Trading Recommendations:
- Buy at 157.00
- Sell at 156.30
### Key Economic Indicators:
1. Eurozone:
- May Core HICP expected at 2.8% (previous: 2.7%)
- Annual Core HICP expected at 2.5% (previous: 2.4%)
2. USA:
- Yearly Core PCE price index (April) expected at 2.8%
- Monthly Core PCE price index (April) expected at 0.3%
- Q1 GDP growth decreased to 1.3% (previous: 1.6%)
### Trading Strategies and Recommendations:
For effective trading amid the current macroeconomic environment, FreshForex recommends opening buy and sell orders at the specified levels. Depositing with cryptocurrency offers an additional 10% bonus on the first deposit, which can help increase trading volumes and manage drawdowns.
For more detailed analysis and recommendations, visit FreshForex's website.
EUR/USD:
Current Situation:
The EUR/USD pair is rising and has reached the 1.0850 level.
Main growth factors: lower-than-expected PCE inflation data in the US and higher-than-expected HICP inflation data in the Eurozone.
Key Events:
The US ISM Manufacturing Index for May will be released today at 17:00 GMT+3.
The European Central Bank's interest rate decision is expected on Wednesday.
Market Expectations:
Higher inflation in the Eurozone may lead to a reassessment of the ECB's rate cut plans.
Lagarde's press conference will provide more information on the pace of rate cuts.
Trading Recommendation:
Consider buy orders at the price level of 1.0875.
Consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0830.
Current Situation:
The EUR/USD pair is rising and has reached the 1.0850 level.
Main growth factors: lower-than-expected PCE inflation data in the US and higher-than-expected HICP inflation data in the Eurozone.
Key Events:
The US ISM Manufacturing Index for May will be released today at 17:00 GMT+3.
The European Central Bank's interest rate decision is expected on Wednesday.
Market Expectations:
Higher inflation in the Eurozone may lead to a reassessment of the ECB's rate cut plans.
Lagarde's press conference will provide more information on the pace of rate cuts.
Trading Recommendation:
Consider buy orders at the price level of 1.0875.
Consider sell orders at the price level of 1.0830.
GBP/USD:
Current Situation:
The GBP/USD pair is trading in a narrow range around 1.2740.
Weakening of the US dollar due to signs of easing inflationary pressure supports GBP.
Key Events:
The UK Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 11:30 GMT+3.
The US ISM Manufacturing Index for May will be released at 17:00 GMT+3.
Market Expectations:
The Fed might lower interest rates later this year.
The Bank of England may keep current rates amid persistent price pressure in the UK.
Trading Recommendation:
Consider buy orders at the price level of 1.2780.
Consider sell orders at the price level of 1.2700.
Current Situation:
The GBP/USD pair is trading in a narrow range around 1.2740.
Weakening of the US dollar due to signs of easing inflationary pressure supports GBP.
Key Events:
The UK Manufacturing PMI will be released today at 11:30 GMT+3.
The US ISM Manufacturing Index for May will be released at 17:00 GMT+3.
Market Expectations:
The Fed might lower interest rates later this year.
The Bank of England may keep current rates amid persistent price pressure in the UK.
Trading Recommendation:
Consider buy orders at the price level of 1.2780.
Consider sell orders at the price level of 1.2700.
USD/JPY:
Current Situation:
The Japanese yen is depreciating following comments from Japan's Economy Minister Yoshitaka Shindo.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose to 2.2% in May.
Key Events:
The interest rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to pressure the yen.
Market Expectations:
PCE data in the US showed a slowdown in price pressures, reducing US Treasury yields.
The Fed's position on achieving the 2% inflation target without further rate hikes weakens the US dollar.
Trading Recommendation:
Consider buy orders at the current price level.
Current Situation:
The Japanese yen is depreciating following comments from Japan's Economy Minister Yoshitaka Shindo.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Japan rose to 2.2% in May.
Key Events:
The interest rate differential between Japan and other countries continues to pressure the yen.
Market Expectations:
PCE data in the US showed a slowdown in price pressures, reducing US Treasury yields.
The Fed's position on achieving the 2% inflation target without further rate hikes weakens the US dollar.
Trading Recommendation:
Consider buy orders at the current price level.
Today, attention is drawn to several key points in the financial markets:
1. The Composite PMI for the eurozone will be released at 11:00 GMT+3. This indicator may affect the euro's exchange rate against the US dollar.
2. At 17:00 GMT+3, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for the US will be published. This indicator can also influence the US dollar.
Currently, the EUR/USD pair is rising, mainly due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. However, further upside potential may be limited ahead of the European Central Bank meeting and its decisions on interest rates.
The GBP/USD pair is also trading below the 1.2800 level, primarily due to investor caution ahead of key economic data releases from the US and the UK.
The USD/JPY pair is showing a decline in the Japanese yen, but the upside potential is limited due to data from Japan indicating weak growth in the service sector.
Overall, traders can expect short-term opportunities in the market, especially ahead of the release of the ADP Employment Report in the US and the NFP Employment Data on Friday.
If you are interested in forex trading, remember that recommendations may change depending on current events and market trends.
1. The Composite PMI for the eurozone will be released at 11:00 GMT+3. This indicator may affect the euro's exchange rate against the US dollar.
2. At 17:00 GMT+3, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for the US will be published. This indicator can also influence the US dollar.
Currently, the EUR/USD pair is rising, mainly due to expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut. However, further upside potential may be limited ahead of the European Central Bank meeting and its decisions on interest rates.
The GBP/USD pair is also trading below the 1.2800 level, primarily due to investor caution ahead of key economic data releases from the US and the UK.
The USD/JPY pair is showing a decline in the Japanese yen, but the upside potential is limited due to data from Japan indicating weak growth in the service sector.
Overall, traders can expect short-term opportunities in the market, especially ahead of the release of the ADP Employment Report in the US and the NFP Employment Data on Friday.
If you are interested in forex trading, remember that recommendations may change depending on current events and market trends.
FreshForex Analytics EN, [06.06.2024 8:51]
Fundamental Analysis FreshForex, [06.06.2024 8:25]
Key Events to Watch Today:
15:15 GMT+3: ECB Main Refinancing Rate Decision
15:30 GMT+3: USD Initial Jobless Claims
15:45 GMT+3: ECB Press Conference
EURUSD Analysis:
Current Status: EUR and USD are consolidating around the 1.0890 mark despite early gains in the USD during the Asian session on Thursday.
ECB Rate Decision: Today's focus will be on the ECB's interest rate decision and President Christine Lagarde's press conference. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, reducing the main refinancing rate, marginal lending rate, and deposit rate to 4.25%, 4.50%, and 3.75%, respectively.
Market Expectations: Financial markets anticipate a 43 basis points cut by September and about 60 basis points by year-end.
Fed vs ECB: Divergences between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve could pressure the euro, creating headwinds for the EUR/USD pair. Increasing speculation about the Fed's first rate cut in September, as the US economy's growth slowed in Q1, might also affect the pair. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now estimate a nearly 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, up from 54.9% earlier this week.
USD Data: Stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI data for May provided some support for the USD. The index rose to 53.8 in May from 49.4, surpassing the consensus forecast of 50.8.
NFP Data: On Friday, focus will shift to the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, with expectations of an addition of 185,000 jobs in May. Strong NFP data could further strengthen the USD and limit EUR/USD growth.
Trading Recommendation:
Buy Orders: At 1.0920
Sell Orders: At 1.0855
FreshForex Analytics EN, [06.06.2024 8:51]
Fundamental Analysis FreshForex, [06.06.2024 8:26]
Key Event to Watch Today:
15:30 GMT+3: USD Initial Jobless Claims
GBPUSD Analysis:
Current Status: GBP/USD is resuming its rise near 1.2800, despite the USD recovery.
Fed Rate Cut Speculation: Traders are predicting two rate cuts by the Fed this year due to lower-than-expected US Q1 economic growth.
US Data: Today, weekly initial jobless claims and trade balance data will be released. The Fed officials have emphasized maintaining higher rates until inflation trends towards the 2% target. However, weak ISM Manufacturing PMI for May and lower Q1 GDP have raised expectations of Fed easing in September, which pressures the USD. Markets now estimate a nearly 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, up from 54.9% earlier this week, according to CME FedWatch.
Services PMI Data: ISM Services PMI rose to 53.8 in May from 49.4, beating the forecast of 50.8. In contrast, the UK services sector showed slowing growth in May, with the S&P Global Services PMI hitting a six-month low of 52.9 from 55.0 in April, matching expectations. The composite PMI fell to a two-month low of 53.0 from a yearly high of 54.1 in April.
GBP/USD Influence: In the absence of significant UK economic data, GBP/USD will be influenced by the USD.
Trading Recommendation:
Buy Orders: At 1.2825
Sell Orders: At 1.2740
Fundamental Analysis FreshForex, [06.06.2024 8:25]
Key Events to Watch Today:
15:15 GMT+3: ECB Main Refinancing Rate Decision
15:30 GMT+3: USD Initial Jobless Claims
15:45 GMT+3: ECB Press Conference
EURUSD Analysis:
Current Status: EUR and USD are consolidating around the 1.0890 mark despite early gains in the USD during the Asian session on Thursday.
ECB Rate Decision: Today's focus will be on the ECB's interest rate decision and President Christine Lagarde's press conference. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, reducing the main refinancing rate, marginal lending rate, and deposit rate to 4.25%, 4.50%, and 3.75%, respectively.
Market Expectations: Financial markets anticipate a 43 basis points cut by September and about 60 basis points by year-end.
Fed vs ECB: Divergences between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve could pressure the euro, creating headwinds for the EUR/USD pair. Increasing speculation about the Fed's first rate cut in September, as the US economy's growth slowed in Q1, might also affect the pair. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now estimate a nearly 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, up from 54.9% earlier this week.
USD Data: Stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI data for May provided some support for the USD. The index rose to 53.8 in May from 49.4, surpassing the consensus forecast of 50.8.
NFP Data: On Friday, focus will shift to the US non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, with expectations of an addition of 185,000 jobs in May. Strong NFP data could further strengthen the USD and limit EUR/USD growth.
Trading Recommendation:
Buy Orders: At 1.0920
Sell Orders: At 1.0855
FreshForex Analytics EN, [06.06.2024 8:51]
Fundamental Analysis FreshForex, [06.06.2024 8:26]
Key Event to Watch Today:
15:30 GMT+3: USD Initial Jobless Claims
GBPUSD Analysis:
Current Status: GBP/USD is resuming its rise near 1.2800, despite the USD recovery.
Fed Rate Cut Speculation: Traders are predicting two rate cuts by the Fed this year due to lower-than-expected US Q1 economic growth.
US Data: Today, weekly initial jobless claims and trade balance data will be released. The Fed officials have emphasized maintaining higher rates until inflation trends towards the 2% target. However, weak ISM Manufacturing PMI for May and lower Q1 GDP have raised expectations of Fed easing in September, which pressures the USD. Markets now estimate a nearly 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, up from 54.9% earlier this week, according to CME FedWatch.
Services PMI Data: ISM Services PMI rose to 53.8 in May from 49.4, beating the forecast of 50.8. In contrast, the UK services sector showed slowing growth in May, with the S&P Global Services PMI hitting a six-month low of 52.9 from 55.0 in April, matching expectations. The composite PMI fell to a two-month low of 53.0 from a yearly high of 54.1 in April.
GBP/USD Influence: In the absence of significant UK economic data, GBP/USD will be influenced by the USD.
Trading Recommendation:
Buy Orders: At 1.2825
Sell Orders: At 1.2740
FreshForex Analytics EN, [06.06.2024 8:51]
Fundamental Analysis FreshForex, [06.06.2024 8:27]
Key Event to Watch Today:
15:30 GMT+3: USD Initial Jobless Claims
USDJPY Analysis:
Current Status: The Japanese yen (JPY) is strengthening due to improved risk sentiment and increased speculation of a Fed rate cut in September. Lower US Treasury yields are pressuring the USD, impacting the USD/JPY pair.
US Jobs Data: Investors are looking forward to Friday's key US employment data, including average hourly earnings and non-farm payrolls.
Japan's Economic Data: The yield on Japanese government bonds retreated from recent highs, and the 10-year yield dropped below 1% for the first time in two weeks. However, real wages in Japan fell for the 25th consecutive month in April as inflation outpaced wage growth, complicating the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy normalization efforts.
USD Index: The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, faced challenges after mixed US economic data, intensifying speculation about a Fed rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September has risen to almost 70.0% from 47.5% a week earlier.
Trading Recommendation:
Sell Orders: From the current price level
Fundamental Analysis FreshForex, [06.06.2024 8:27]
Key Event to Watch Today:
15:30 GMT+3: USD Initial Jobless Claims
USDJPY Analysis:
Current Status: The Japanese yen (JPY) is strengthening due to improved risk sentiment and increased speculation of a Fed rate cut in September. Lower US Treasury yields are pressuring the USD, impacting the USD/JPY pair.
US Jobs Data: Investors are looking forward to Friday's key US employment data, including average hourly earnings and non-farm payrolls.
Japan's Economic Data: The yield on Japanese government bonds retreated from recent highs, and the 10-year yield dropped below 1% for the first time in two weeks. However, real wages in Japan fell for the 25th consecutive month in April as inflation outpaced wage growth, complicating the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy normalization efforts.
USD Index: The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, faced challenges after mixed US economic data, intensifying speculation about a Fed rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September has risen to almost 70.0% from 47.5% a week earlier.
Trading Recommendation:
Sell Orders: From the current price level
EUR/USD:
Analysis: The EUR/USD pair is under selling pressure and has dropped to a three-week low. The pair is influenced by strong US employment data, which is strengthening the dollar. Additional pressure on the euro comes from political risks in the eurozone, including the success of Eurosceptics in the elections and political uncertainty in France.
Recommendation: Primarily sell orders from the current price level. Traders should be cautious ahead of the important FOMC meeting and the release of US inflation data.
GBP/USD:
Analysis: The GBP/USD pair is recovering its lost ground, but its growth is limited by the reduced expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The focus will be on the UK employment data due on Tuesday, which could affect expectations regarding the Bank of England's future policy.
Recommendation: Primarily sell orders from the current price level. Pay attention to the UK employment data and the Federal Reserve's decisions to be announced this week.
USD/JPY:
Analysis: The Japanese yen is weakening amid a strong US dollar, supported by favorable US employment data. These data are expected to reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, benefiting the dollar against the yen.
Recommendation: Primarily buy orders from the current price level. Consider the Japanese GDP data and the ongoing developments around the Federal Reserve's policy.
Analysis: The EUR/USD pair is under selling pressure and has dropped to a three-week low. The pair is influenced by strong US employment data, which is strengthening the dollar. Additional pressure on the euro comes from political risks in the eurozone, including the success of Eurosceptics in the elections and political uncertainty in France.
Recommendation: Primarily sell orders from the current price level. Traders should be cautious ahead of the important FOMC meeting and the release of US inflation data.
GBP/USD:
Analysis: The GBP/USD pair is recovering its lost ground, but its growth is limited by the reduced expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The focus will be on the UK employment data due on Tuesday, which could affect expectations regarding the Bank of England's future policy.
Recommendation: Primarily sell orders from the current price level. Pay attention to the UK employment data and the Federal Reserve's decisions to be announced this week.
USD/JPY:
Analysis: The Japanese yen is weakening amid a strong US dollar, supported by favorable US employment data. These data are expected to reinforce the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, benefiting the dollar against the yen.
Recommendation: Primarily buy orders from the current price level. Consider the Japanese GDP data and the ongoing developments around the Federal Reserve's policy.
Fundamental Analysis of Currency Pairs for June 17, 2024
EUR/USD
Overview:
The EUR/USD pair starts the week consolidating around the 1.0700 level after recent losses that took it to 1.0670-1.0665. The downward trend continues, driven by political and economic factors in Europe and the U.S.
Key Factors:
Political Instability in France: Upcoming snap elections and the leading position of the right-wing "National Front" party are raising concerns about economic stability in the Eurozone's second-largest economy.
High U.S. Treasury Yields: The Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated the possibility of only one rate cut in 2024, supporting higher yields.
Geopolitical Tensions: Increased tensions in the Middle East are bolstering demand for the safe-haven dollar.
Inflation Expectations: Signs of easing inflation pressure in the U.S. could allow the Fed to cut rates in September.
Trading Recommendation:
Sell from the current level (around 1.0700) targeting the 1.0670-1.0665 range.
GBP/USD
Overview:
The GBP/USD pair is fluctuating in a narrow range around 1.2680 after a modest rebound on Friday. The U.S. dollar continues to receive support from the Fed's hawkish stance.
Key Factors:
Hawkish Fed Stance: The Fed's forecast includes only one rate cut in 2024, supporting U.S. Treasury yields and strengthening the dollar.
U.S. Inflation Data: Weaker-than-expected consumer price and producer price data, along with a surprising drop in import prices, enhance the outlook for potential Fed rate cuts in September.
Economic Situation in the UK: Persistent price pressures may prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to maintain current rates. Upcoming general elections on July 4 add to the uncertainty.
Trading Recommendation:
Buy at the 1.2720 level and sell at the 1.2655 level.
USD/JPY
Overview:
The USD/JPY pair continues its rally, trading near 157.50. The Japanese yen is weakening due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish stance.
Key Factors:
Hawkish Fed Stance: Supports the pair as the Fed signals only one rate cut in 2024.
BoJ's Dovish Position: The BoJ maintained its rate at 0%, weakening the yen. Potential reduction in Japanese government bond purchases may be considered at the next meeting, but this has not significantly impacted the yen yet.
Trading Recommendation:
Buy from the current level (around 157.50).
EUR/USD
Overview:
The EUR/USD pair starts the week consolidating around the 1.0700 level after recent losses that took it to 1.0670-1.0665. The downward trend continues, driven by political and economic factors in Europe and the U.S.
Key Factors:
Political Instability in France: Upcoming snap elections and the leading position of the right-wing "National Front" party are raising concerns about economic stability in the Eurozone's second-largest economy.
High U.S. Treasury Yields: The Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated the possibility of only one rate cut in 2024, supporting higher yields.
Geopolitical Tensions: Increased tensions in the Middle East are bolstering demand for the safe-haven dollar.
Inflation Expectations: Signs of easing inflation pressure in the U.S. could allow the Fed to cut rates in September.
Trading Recommendation:
Sell from the current level (around 1.0700) targeting the 1.0670-1.0665 range.
GBP/USD
Overview:
The GBP/USD pair is fluctuating in a narrow range around 1.2680 after a modest rebound on Friday. The U.S. dollar continues to receive support from the Fed's hawkish stance.
Key Factors:
Hawkish Fed Stance: The Fed's forecast includes only one rate cut in 2024, supporting U.S. Treasury yields and strengthening the dollar.
U.S. Inflation Data: Weaker-than-expected consumer price and producer price data, along with a surprising drop in import prices, enhance the outlook for potential Fed rate cuts in September.
Economic Situation in the UK: Persistent price pressures may prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to maintain current rates. Upcoming general elections on July 4 add to the uncertainty.
Trading Recommendation:
Buy at the 1.2720 level and sell at the 1.2655 level.
USD/JPY
Overview:
The USD/JPY pair continues its rally, trading near 157.50. The Japanese yen is weakening due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) dovish stance.
Key Factors:
Hawkish Fed Stance: Supports the pair as the Fed signals only one rate cut in 2024.
BoJ's Dovish Position: The BoJ maintained its rate at 0%, weakening the yen. Potential reduction in Japanese government bond purchases may be considered at the next meeting, but this has not significantly impacted the yen yet.
Trading Recommendation:
Buy from the current level (around 157.50).
EURUSD
Events:
12:00 GMT+3: Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI).
15:30 GMT+3: US Retail Sales data.
Current Situation:
EURUSD is trading lower around 1.0730.
Moderate recovery in the US dollar is pressuring the euro.
Traders are cautious ahead of the Eurozone inflation data and US retail sales data.
Forecast:
US retail sales are expected to rise by 0.2% m/m.
Core retail sales are also expected to remain at 0.2%.
Trading Recommendation:
Watch the 1.0740 level. If it holds above, consider opening Buy positions. If it rebounds, consider Sell positions.
GBPUSD
Events:
15:30 GMT+3: US Retail Sales data.
Current Situation:
GBPUSD is under pressure and trading below the 1.2700 level.
Recovery of the US dollar is pressuring the pound.
Forecast:
US retail sales are expected to increase by 0.3%.
Trading Recommendation:
Predominantly trade Sell orders from the current price level.
USDJPY
Events:
15:30 GMT+3: US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data.
Current Situation:
USDJPY is fluctuating within a narrow range above mid-157.00.
The pair remains near the highest level since late April.
Forecast:
Despite expectations of rate cuts by the Fed, US Treasury yields might support the dollar.
Possible intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen.
Trading Recommendation:
Predominantly trade Buy orders from the current price level.
General Recommendations:
EURUSD: Monitor Eurozone CPI and US retail sales data closely. Determine your strategy based on whether the price consolidates above or below 1.0740.
GBPUSD: Sell from current levels, considering further data on US retail sales.
USDJPY: Buy from current levels, taking into account US macroeconomic data and potential actions by Japanese authorities.
Events:
12:00 GMT+3: Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI).
15:30 GMT+3: US Retail Sales data.
Current Situation:
EURUSD is trading lower around 1.0730.
Moderate recovery in the US dollar is pressuring the euro.
Traders are cautious ahead of the Eurozone inflation data and US retail sales data.
Forecast:
US retail sales are expected to rise by 0.2% m/m.
Core retail sales are also expected to remain at 0.2%.
Trading Recommendation:
Watch the 1.0740 level. If it holds above, consider opening Buy positions. If it rebounds, consider Sell positions.
GBPUSD
Events:
15:30 GMT+3: US Retail Sales data.
Current Situation:
GBPUSD is under pressure and trading below the 1.2700 level.
Recovery of the US dollar is pressuring the pound.
Forecast:
US retail sales are expected to increase by 0.3%.
Trading Recommendation:
Predominantly trade Sell orders from the current price level.
USDJPY
Events:
15:30 GMT+3: US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data.
Current Situation:
USDJPY is fluctuating within a narrow range above mid-157.00.
The pair remains near the highest level since late April.
Forecast:
Despite expectations of rate cuts by the Fed, US Treasury yields might support the dollar.
Possible intervention by Japanese authorities to support the yen.
Trading Recommendation:
Predominantly trade Buy orders from the current price level.
General Recommendations:
EURUSD: Monitor Eurozone CPI and US retail sales data closely. Determine your strategy based on whether the price consolidates above or below 1.0740.
GBPUSD: Sell from current levels, considering further data on US retail sales.
USDJPY: Buy from current levels, taking into account US macroeconomic data and potential actions by Japanese authorities.
📊 #ForexNews #Finance #Economy
🔹 The dollar strengthens amid US economic resilience. The dollar has reached a seven-week high against the yen amid growing confidence in the US economy. The euro and pound have weakened.
📈 Recommendation: Consider opening long positions in USD/JPY.
🔹 South African rand slips as new cabinet appointments are awaited.
📉 Recommendation: Avoid open positions in ZAR until political stability is achieved.
🔹 Bearish forecasts for Asian currencies. Analysts continue to hold bearish positions on most Asian currencies due to expectations of higher US interest rates.
📉 Recommendation: Consider opening short positions in JPY and INR against USD.
🔹 Argentina and China extend currency swap, easing fears over Argentina's solvency.
📈 Recommendation: Consider long-term investments in Argentine assets.
🔹 Dollar weakens following US inflation data, potentially increasing the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies.
📈 Recommendation: Consider purchasing BTC and ETH.
🔹 The dollar strengthens amid US economic resilience. The dollar has reached a seven-week high against the yen amid growing confidence in the US economy. The euro and pound have weakened.
📈 Recommendation: Consider opening long positions in USD/JPY.
🔹 South African rand slips as new cabinet appointments are awaited.
📉 Recommendation: Avoid open positions in ZAR until political stability is achieved.
🔹 Bearish forecasts for Asian currencies. Analysts continue to hold bearish positions on most Asian currencies due to expectations of higher US interest rates.
📉 Recommendation: Consider opening short positions in JPY and INR against USD.
🔹 Argentina and China extend currency swap, easing fears over Argentina's solvency.
📈 Recommendation: Consider long-term investments in Argentine assets.
🔹 Dollar weakens following US inflation data, potentially increasing the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies.
📈 Recommendation: Consider purchasing BTC and ETH.
📊 #StockMarketNews #Finance #Economy
🔹 US Stock Market Update
The major US stock indices showed mixed results this week. The S&P 500 slightly decreased by 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite experienced a modest rise of 0.3%. Investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week, where more insights into future interest rate decisions are expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week with a 0.5% decline, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected corporate earnings from several blue-chip companies.
📈 Recommendation: Considering the current market sentiment, it might be prudent to maintain a diversified portfolio and closely monitor the outcomes of the Fed meeting.
🔹 European Markets in Focus
European stock markets also faced some turbulence. The FTSE 100 in the UK fell by 0.4% as Brexit uncertainties continue to weigh on investor confidence. In contrast, the DAX in Germany posted a 0.6% gain, bolstered by strong performance in the automotive sector.
📉 Recommendation: Investors should remain cautious and keep an eye on geopolitical developments that might impact European markets.
🔹 Asian Markets Performance
Asian markets experienced mixed results as well. The Nikkei 225 in Japan climbed by 1.2% thanks to favorable economic data, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong dropped by 0.8% due to ongoing political tensions.
📈 Recommendation: Asian markets offer both opportunities and risks. Diversification within the region could mitigate potential volatility.
🔹 US Stock Market Update
The major US stock indices showed mixed results this week. The S&P 500 slightly decreased by 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite experienced a modest rise of 0.3%. Investors remain cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting next week, where more insights into future interest rate decisions are expected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week with a 0.5% decline, primarily driven by weaker-than-expected corporate earnings from several blue-chip companies.
📈 Recommendation: Considering the current market sentiment, it might be prudent to maintain a diversified portfolio and closely monitor the outcomes of the Fed meeting.
🔹 European Markets in Focus
European stock markets also faced some turbulence. The FTSE 100 in the UK fell by 0.4% as Brexit uncertainties continue to weigh on investor confidence. In contrast, the DAX in Germany posted a 0.6% gain, bolstered by strong performance in the automotive sector.
📉 Recommendation: Investors should remain cautious and keep an eye on geopolitical developments that might impact European markets.
🔹 Asian Markets Performance
Asian markets experienced mixed results as well. The Nikkei 225 in Japan climbed by 1.2% thanks to favorable economic data, while the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong dropped by 0.8% due to ongoing political tensions.
📈 Recommendation: Asian markets offer both opportunities and risks. Diversification within the region could mitigate potential volatility.
S&P 500 Market Overview for Today
Today, the S&P 500 shows confident growth, continuing the trend from last week. Investors are awaiting today's ISM Manufacturing Index data, which could provide a new impetus to the market. Trading recommendation: Consider buy orders at the current price levels.
#SP500 #stocks #marketanalysis #trading
Today, the S&P 500 shows confident growth, continuing the trend from last week. Investors are awaiting today's ISM Manufacturing Index data, which could provide a new impetus to the market. Trading recommendation: Consider buy orders at the current price levels.
#SP500 #stocks #marketanalysis #trading