GBPUSD: BUY 1.3270, SL 1.3140, TP 1.3470
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD continues its rally from April 8 and is trading near 1.3250 in Wednesday’s Asian session, after touching a fresh six-month high at 1.3256 earlier in the day.
On Tuesday, UK labor market data showed the unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% in February, matching expectations. The Bank of England has so far refrained from easing policy, citing wage growth, but markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in May, along with two more cuts later this year.
Investors are now awaiting the UK’s March CPI report due later today. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dipped below 99.80, with focus turning to US retail sales data for March, which could shed light on the impact of trade issues on consumer behavior.
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD continues its rally from April 8 and is trading near 1.3250 in Wednesday’s Asian session, after touching a fresh six-month high at 1.3256 earlier in the day.
On Tuesday, UK labor market data showed the unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% in February, matching expectations. The Bank of England has so far refrained from easing policy, citing wage growth, but markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in May, along with two more cuts later this year.
Investors are now awaiting the UK’s March CPI report due later today. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dipped below 99.80, with focus turning to US retail sales data for March, which could shed light on the impact of trade issues on consumer behavior.
Forecast for April 17
USDJPY: SELL 142.30, SL 143.70, TP 139.70
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) is rebounding after a slight pullback, supported by ongoing trade uncertainty that continues to drive demand for safe-haven assets. Additional support came from a sharp rise in Japan’s core machinery orders for February, beating market expectations, along with hopes for a trade deal with the US and growing confidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise rates in 2025.
BoJ’s hawkish outlook contrasts with increasing expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This could narrow the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, boosting the yen’s outlook. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains under pressure amid concerns that Trump’s trade policies could hinder US economic growth, keeping the USD/JPY pair near its six-month lows.
USDJPY: SELL 142.30, SL 143.70, TP 139.70
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) is rebounding after a slight pullback, supported by ongoing trade uncertainty that continues to drive demand for safe-haven assets. Additional support came from a sharp rise in Japan’s core machinery orders for February, beating market expectations, along with hopes for a trade deal with the US and growing confidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise rates in 2025.
BoJ’s hawkish outlook contrasts with increasing expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This could narrow the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, boosting the yen’s outlook. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains under pressure amid concerns that Trump’s trade policies could hinder US economic growth, keeping the USD/JPY pair near its six-month lows.
Forecast for April 18
EURUSD: SELL 1.1320, SL 1.1400, TP 1.1160
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:15 EET. EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
🔹 15:45 EET. EUR - ECB Press Conference
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair remains steady near 1.1400 in early Asian trading on Thursday, as markets adopt a cautious tone amid anticipation of potential trade deals from the Trump administration.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that trade tensions could undermine the Fed’s employment and inflation goals, increasing the risk of a U.S. economic slowdown and putting pressure on the dollar.
The ECB is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday — marking the sixth consecutive cut — amid ongoing tariff tensions and economic uncertainty.
Market focus is on the ECB press conference, where analysts believe Christine Lagarde is unlikely to hint at further rate cuts until more data becomes available.
EURUSD: SELL 1.1320, SL 1.1400, TP 1.1160
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:15 EET. EUR - ECB Interest Rate Decision
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
🔹 15:45 EET. EUR - ECB Press Conference
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair remains steady near 1.1400 in early Asian trading on Thursday, as markets adopt a cautious tone amid anticipation of potential trade deals from the Trump administration.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that trade tensions could undermine the Fed’s employment and inflation goals, increasing the risk of a U.S. economic slowdown and putting pressure on the dollar.
The ECB is expected to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points on Thursday — marking the sixth consecutive cut — amid ongoing tariff tensions and economic uncertainty.
Market focus is on the ECB press conference, where analysts believe Christine Lagarde is unlikely to hint at further rate cuts until more data becomes available.
Forecast for April 18
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3190, SL 1.3280, TP 1.3010
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair ended its seven-day winning streak, falling to 1.3230 in Thursday’s Asian session after reaching a six-month high of 1.3292 on Wednesday.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed above 99.60, supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales, which rose 1.4% in March, beating both the previous 0.2% gain and the forecast of 1.3%.
The pound came under pressure following weaker-than-expected UK inflation data: core inflation rose 2.6% year-over-year versus a 2.7% forecast, while services inflation fell to 4.7% from 5.0%, increasing expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in May.
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3190, SL 1.3280, TP 1.3010
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair ended its seven-day winning streak, falling to 1.3230 in Thursday’s Asian session after reaching a six-month high of 1.3292 on Wednesday.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed above 99.60, supported by stronger-than-expected U.S. retail sales, which rose 1.4% in March, beating both the previous 0.2% gain and the forecast of 1.3%.
The pound came under pressure following weaker-than-expected UK inflation data: core inflation rose 2.6% year-over-year versus a 2.7% forecast, while services inflation fell to 4.7% from 5.0%, increasing expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in May.
Forecast for April 18
USDJPY: SELL 142.30, SL 144.00, TP 140.30
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen pulled back after reaching a multi-month high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, though a deeper decline remains limited. Positive sentiment in global equity markets and a mild rebound in the dollar helped USD/JPY recover over 100 pips from the 141.60 level.
However, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff announcements, the escalating U.S.-China trade war, and recession fears are capping risk appetite. The yen continues to find support from expectations that the Bank of Japan may eventually raise interest rates — though potentially delayed — as well as hopes for a trade deal between Japan and the U.S.
USDJPY: SELL 142.30, SL 144.00, TP 140.30
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Claims
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen pulled back after reaching a multi-month high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, though a deeper decline remains limited. Positive sentiment in global equity markets and a mild rebound in the dollar helped USD/JPY recover over 100 pips from the 141.60 level.
However, uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff announcements, the escalating U.S.-China trade war, and recession fears are capping risk appetite. The yen continues to find support from expectations that the Bank of Japan may eventually raise interest rates — though potentially delayed — as well as hopes for a trade deal between Japan and the U.S.
Gold hits new all-time high! Next target — $4000!
XAUUSD soared above $3300/oz, gaining 20% YTD. Geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and risk-off sentiment are driving gold even higher.
🔹 Fed likely to cut rates — bullish for gold.
🔹 Central banks ramp up gold buying — +41% in Q1.
🔹 Trump targets critical mineral imports — market reacts fast.
🔹 US inflation hits 6.7% — highest since 1981, dollar under pressure.
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XAUUSD soared above $3300/oz, gaining 20% YTD. Geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and risk-off sentiment are driving gold even higher.
🔹 Fed likely to cut rates — bullish for gold.
🔹 Central banks ramp up gold buying — +41% in Q1.
🔹 Trump targets critical mineral imports — market reacts fast.
🔹 US inflation hits 6.7% — highest since 1981, dollar under pressure.
Goldman Sachs forecasts $3700 by year-end, $4000 by 2026. FreshForex sees $4000 this year!
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Forecast for April 24
EURUSD: SELL 1.1380, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1300
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair declines toward 1.1355 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, pressured by a stronger US dollar. The greenback finds support after Donald Trump stated he does not plan to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite criticism over the Fed’s slow pace in cutting interest rates.
Further boosting the dollar are reports of progress in US trade talks, with 18 countries already submitting proposals and meetings with 34 nations scheduled for this week.
Hawkish comments from Fed officials also support the dollar. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler emphasized the need to keep rates unchanged due to rising inflation risks driven by elevated import tariffs.
Meanwhile, expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June continue to weigh on the euro, with the probability of such a move increasing to 75%, according to LSEG data (up from 60% previously).
EURUSD: SELL 1.1380, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1300
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair declines toward 1.1355 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, pressured by a stronger US dollar. The greenback finds support after Donald Trump stated he does not plan to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite criticism over the Fed’s slow pace in cutting interest rates.
Further boosting the dollar are reports of progress in US trade talks, with 18 countries already submitting proposals and meetings with 34 nations scheduled for this week.
Hawkish comments from Fed officials also support the dollar. Fed Governor Adriana Kugler emphasized the need to keep rates unchanged due to rising inflation risks driven by elevated import tariffs.
Meanwhile, expectations of a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in June continue to weigh on the euro, with the probability of such a move increasing to 75%, according to LSEG data (up from 60% previously).
Forecast for April 24
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3300, SL 1.3340, TP 1.3210
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure near 1.3280 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, as the US dollar strengthens. The dollar is supported by hopes for de-escalation of the US-China trade war following comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who expressed optimism about easing tensions between the two nations.
Another supportive factor for the dollar is Trump’s decision to drop plans to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, further boosting investor confidence.
Markets are also focused on upcoming US-UK trade negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Washington is preparing deal terms that would include reducing UK tariffs on a broad range of US goods, including cutting car tariffs from 10% to 2.5%.
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3300, SL 1.3340, TP 1.3210
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair remains under pressure near 1.3280 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, as the US dollar strengthens. The dollar is supported by hopes for de-escalation of the US-China trade war following comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who expressed optimism about easing tensions between the two nations.
Another supportive factor for the dollar is Trump’s decision to drop plans to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell, further boosting investor confidence.
Markets are also focused on upcoming US-UK trade negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Washington is preparing deal terms that would include reducing UK tariffs on a broad range of US goods, including cutting car tariffs from 10% to 2.5%.
Forecast for April 24
USDJPY: SELL 141.70, SL 142.10, TP 140.50
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) weakens for the second consecutive day, retreating from its recent multi-month high, as risk appetite improves globally following upbeat US comments on trade talks with China. This shift reduces demand for safe-haven assets, including the yen.
The US dollar is further supported by its recovery from multi-year lows and easing concerns over the Fed’s independence, pushing USD/JPY above 143.00 during the Asian session.
However, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates in 2025 limit yen downside. Additionally, weak PMI readings from Japan and growing doubts about the consistency of US economic policy contribute to volatility. As a result, USD/JPY has pulled back below 142.00 in the last hour.
USDJPY: SELL 141.70, SL 142.10, TP 140.50
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) weakens for the second consecutive day, retreating from its recent multi-month high, as risk appetite improves globally following upbeat US comments on trade talks with China. This shift reduces demand for safe-haven assets, including the yen.
The US dollar is further supported by its recovery from multi-year lows and easing concerns over the Fed’s independence, pushing USD/JPY above 143.00 during the Asian session.
However, expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates in 2025 limit yen downside. Additionally, weak PMI readings from Japan and growing doubts about the consistency of US economic policy contribute to volatility. As a result, USD/JPY has pulled back below 142.00 in the last hour.
Forecast for April 25
EURUSD: BUY 1.1350, SL 1.1320, TP 1.1430
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Number of Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S.
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair rises toward 1.1335 during the early Asian session on Thursday, supported by easing concerns over tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, which puts pressure on the dollar.
According to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, companies affected by Trump’s initial tariffs are attempting to pass rising costs onto consumers but remain uncertain about their ability to do so.
Earlier, Trump imposed a 10% import tax but later suspended it for 90 days to allow time for negotiations. However, ongoing trade policy uncertainty and fears of a U.S. economic slowdown may continue to weigh on the dollar, favoring EUR/USD upside.
Meanwhile, the ECB cut its key interest rate to 2.25%. ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that the increase in U.S. tariffs on EU goods from 3% to 13% is already hurting Europe’s economic outlook.
EURUSD: BUY 1.1350, SL 1.1320, TP 1.1430
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Number of Initial Jobless Claims in the U.S.
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair rises toward 1.1335 during the early Asian session on Thursday, supported by easing concerns over tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, which puts pressure on the dollar.
According to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, companies affected by Trump’s initial tariffs are attempting to pass rising costs onto consumers but remain uncertain about their ability to do so.
Earlier, Trump imposed a 10% import tax but later suspended it for 90 days to allow time for negotiations. However, ongoing trade policy uncertainty and fears of a U.S. economic slowdown may continue to weigh on the dollar, favoring EUR/USD upside.
Meanwhile, the ECB cut its key interest rate to 2.25%. ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed that the increase in U.S. tariffs on EU goods from 3% to 13% is already hurting Europe’s economic outlook.
Forecast for April 25
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3280, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3370
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Number of Initial Jobless Claims in the US
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair strengthens toward 1.3270, breaking a two-day losing streak amid dollar weakness driven by uncertainty over Trump’s trade policies.
The U.S. administration reported it has held tariff talks with 90 countries, with tariffs on China potentially being implemented within the next few weeks, depending on Beijing’s stance. Trump also threatened to raise the 25% tariffs on cars imported from Canada to support U.S. automakers, adding to market uncertainty and dollar pressure.
At the same time, expectations of a Bank of England rate cut at the May meeting could limit GBP gains. According to LSEG, markets currently price in an 82% chance of a rate cut due to the global economic impact of the ongoing trade conflict.
Traders now focus on upcoming U.S. data, including weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders, and existing home sales. On Friday, UK retail sales for March are expected to show a 0.4% monthly decline after a 1.0% rise in February.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3280, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3370
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Number of Initial Jobless Claims in the US
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair strengthens toward 1.3270, breaking a two-day losing streak amid dollar weakness driven by uncertainty over Trump’s trade policies.
The U.S. administration reported it has held tariff talks with 90 countries, with tariffs on China potentially being implemented within the next few weeks, depending on Beijing’s stance. Trump also threatened to raise the 25% tariffs on cars imported from Canada to support U.S. automakers, adding to market uncertainty and dollar pressure.
At the same time, expectations of a Bank of England rate cut at the May meeting could limit GBP gains. According to LSEG, markets currently price in an 82% chance of a rate cut due to the global economic impact of the ongoing trade conflict.
Traders now focus on upcoming U.S. data, including weekly jobless claims, durable goods orders, and existing home sales. On Friday, UK retail sales for March are expected to show a 0.4% monthly decline after a 1.0% rise in February.
Forecast for April 25
USDJPY: SELL 142.90, SL 143.20, TP 141.10
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - US Initial Jobless Claims Number
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) gains against the U.S. dollar during Thursday’s Asian session, pausing its pullback from the multi-month highs reached earlier this week.
Demand for the safe-haven yen is supported by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who downplayed expectations of a quick resolution to the U.S.-China trade dispute. Additionally, growing confidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its policy stance and possibly continue raising rates in 2025 further supports the yen.
However, concerns that BoJ may delay rate hikes due to Trump’s tariff actions and their impact on the economic outlook could limit the yen’s upside. Still, the policy divergence between BoJ’s hawkish signals and expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continues to pressure the dollar and favors the bearish outlook for USD/JPY.
USDJPY: SELL 142.90, SL 143.20, TP 141.10
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - US Initial Jobless Claims Number
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) gains against the U.S. dollar during Thursday’s Asian session, pausing its pullback from the multi-month highs reached earlier this week.
Demand for the safe-haven yen is supported by comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who downplayed expectations of a quick resolution to the U.S.-China trade dispute. Additionally, growing confidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its policy stance and possibly continue raising rates in 2025 further supports the yen.
However, concerns that BoJ may delay rate hikes due to Trump’s tariff actions and their impact on the economic outlook could limit the yen’s upside. Still, the policy divergence between BoJ’s hawkish signals and expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve continues to pressure the dollar and favors the bearish outlook for USD/JPY.
Bitcoin Surpasses Google: Rally to $94,000
Bitcoin hits new highs — $94,000 and $1.86T market cap, overtaking Alphabet and becoming the 5th largest asset globally.
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5 reasons behind BTC’s 2025 rally:
🔹 Bitcoin ETFs approved in the US — SEC allowed spot ETFs, unlocking institutional inflows.
🔹 Weaker dollar, falling markets — BTC seen as “digital gold” and safe haven.
🔹 US government support — easier regulation and plans for state crypto reserves.
🔹 Rising trust — Bitcoin strengthens as a long-term store of value.
🔹 Tech upgrades — Lightning Network and Layer 2 solutions speed up and lower transaction costs.
Bitcoin keeps proving its status as a top global financial asset.
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Bitcoin hits new highs — $94,000 and $1.86T market cap, overtaking Alphabet and becoming the 5th largest asset globally.
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5 reasons behind BTC’s 2025 rally:
🔹 Bitcoin ETFs approved in the US — SEC allowed spot ETFs, unlocking institutional inflows.
🔹 Weaker dollar, falling markets — BTC seen as “digital gold” and safe haven.
🔹 US government support — easier regulation and plans for state crypto reserves.
🔹 Rising trust — Bitcoin strengthens as a long-term store of value.
🔹 Tech upgrades — Lightning Network and Layer 2 solutions speed up and lower transaction costs.
Bitcoin keeps proving its status as a top global financial asset.
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Forecast for April 30
EURUSD: SELL 1.1380, SL 1.1400 , TP 1.1300
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 17:00 EET. USD - US Consumer Confidence Indicator
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair is declining toward 1.1415 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The euro is weakening amid expectations of an ECB rate cut in June. Investors are also preparing for the release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday.
U.S. President Donald Trump reported progress in negotiations with China, although Beijing denied it. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed contacts with Chinese officials but emphasized that Beijing must take the first step toward de-escalation. Investors are closely watching developments, as an escalation of the trade war could weaken the dollar and support EUR/USD.
According to Reuters, ECB officials are increasingly confident that rate cuts are necessary amid slowing inflation. ECB official Olli Rehn stated that the central bank is ready to lower rates below the neutral level to support the economy.
EURUSD: SELL 1.1380, SL 1.1400 , TP 1.1300
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 17:00 EET. USD - US Consumer Confidence Indicator
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair is declining toward 1.1415 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The euro is weakening amid expectations of an ECB rate cut in June. Investors are also preparing for the release of U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday.
U.S. President Donald Trump reported progress in negotiations with China, although Beijing denied it. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed contacts with Chinese officials but emphasized that Beijing must take the first step toward de-escalation. Investors are closely watching developments, as an escalation of the trade war could weaken the dollar and support EUR/USD.
According to Reuters, ECB officials are increasingly confident that rate cuts are necessary amid slowing inflation. ECB official Olli Rehn stated that the central bank is ready to lower rates below the neutral level to support the economy.
Forecast for April 30
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3400, SL 1.3420, TP 1.3310
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 17:00 EET. USD - US Consumer Confidence Indicator
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is declining toward 1.3425 on Tuesday, pressured by a strengthening U.S. dollar and ahead of remarks from Bank of England (BoE) official Dave Ramsden. The dollar is supported by easing trade tensions, as China partially lifted tariffs on U.S. imports, although Beijing denied ongoing negotiations.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed that talks with China are ongoing. The British pound remains under pressure amid expectations that the BoE will cut rates by 25 basis points in May; any dovish comments from Ramsden could further weaken the pound.
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3400, SL 1.3420, TP 1.3310
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 17:00 EET. USD - US Consumer Confidence Indicator
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is declining toward 1.3425 on Tuesday, pressured by a strengthening U.S. dollar and ahead of remarks from Bank of England (BoE) official Dave Ramsden. The dollar is supported by easing trade tensions, as China partially lifted tariffs on U.S. imports, although Beijing denied ongoing negotiations.
U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins confirmed that talks with China are ongoing. The British pound remains under pressure amid expectations that the BoE will cut rates by 25 basis points in May; any dovish comments from Ramsden could further weaken the pound.
Forecast for April 30
USDJPY: BUY 142.50, SL 142.10, TP 143.50
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 17:00 EET. USD - US Consumer Confidence Indicator
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen is weakening on Tuesday, giving up part of its recovery from a two-week low, amid cautious optimism over easing U.S.-China trade tensions. This reduces demand for safe-haven assets, although traders are refraining from aggressive positions ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting on Thursday.
The BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged due to external risks, although rising inflation could prompt future policy tightening. Geopolitical uncertainty and dollar weakness are limiting the upside for USD/JPY.
USDJPY: BUY 142.50, SL 142.10, TP 143.50
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 17:00 EET. USD - US Consumer Confidence Indicator
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen is weakening on Tuesday, giving up part of its recovery from a two-week low, amid cautious optimism over easing U.S.-China trade tensions. This reduces demand for safe-haven assets, although traders are refraining from aggressive positions ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy meeting on Thursday.
The BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged due to external risks, although rising inflation could prompt future policy tightening. Geopolitical uncertainty and dollar weakness are limiting the upside for USD/JPY.
Forecast for May 1
EURUSD: BUY 1.1390, SL 1.1370, TP 1.1480
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change in the United States
EURUSD:
The US dollar continues to strengthen for a second consecutive day, supported by repositioning ahead of key US macroeconomic data releases. Meanwhile, the euro is under pressure due to dovish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB), with markets pricing in a 75% chance of a rate cut in June.
These expectations were reinforced by comments from ECB policymaker Olli Rehn, who noted easing core inflation pressures and suggested rates could fall below the neutral level. ECB board member Piero Cipollone added that trade uncertainty could reduce eurozone GDP growth by 0.2% in 2025–2026.
However, traders remain cautious about aggressive USD buying due to concerns that Donald Trump’s trade policies could slow the US economy. Expectations of a possible rate-cutting cycle resumption by the Federal Reserve also cap dollar strength and lend support to EUR/USD.
Market focus this week is on the ADP employment report, the preliminary Q1 GDP release, and the core PCE inflation index — all of which may influence USD moves and EUR/USD dynamics.
EURUSD: BUY 1.1390, SL 1.1370, TP 1.1480
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change in the United States
EURUSD:
The US dollar continues to strengthen for a second consecutive day, supported by repositioning ahead of key US macroeconomic data releases. Meanwhile, the euro is under pressure due to dovish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB), with markets pricing in a 75% chance of a rate cut in June.
These expectations were reinforced by comments from ECB policymaker Olli Rehn, who noted easing core inflation pressures and suggested rates could fall below the neutral level. ECB board member Piero Cipollone added that trade uncertainty could reduce eurozone GDP growth by 0.2% in 2025–2026.
However, traders remain cautious about aggressive USD buying due to concerns that Donald Trump’s trade policies could slow the US economy. Expectations of a possible rate-cutting cycle resumption by the Federal Reserve also cap dollar strength and lend support to EUR/USD.
Market focus this week is on the ADP employment report, the preliminary Q1 GDP release, and the core PCE inflation index — all of which may influence USD moves and EUR/USD dynamics.
Forecast for May 1
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3390, SL 1.3420, TP 1.3300
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change in the US
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is falling for a second straight session, trading around 1.3390 in Asia amid broad USD strength and renewed optimism over US-China trade relations. Key focus is on the US PCE inflation data, a crucial metric for Federal Reserve policy.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains above 99.00, supported by rising yields on 2- and 10-year US Treasuries, now around 3.66% and 4.17%, respectively — a sign of continued investor appetite for USD.
Meanwhile, the latest JOLTS report showed US job openings falling to 7.19 million in March, the lowest since September 2024, pointing to a cooling labor market and adding to economic uncertainty.
Sterling also faces pressure from rising expectations that the Bank of England may cut rates at its May meeting. Declining inflation expectations and growing global risks reinforce this outlook.
BoE official Megan Greene recently noted that US tariffs proposed by Trump could lower UK inflation, though broader economic and fiscal uncertainties remain.
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3390, SL 1.3420, TP 1.3300
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change in the US
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is falling for a second straight session, trading around 1.3390 in Asia amid broad USD strength and renewed optimism over US-China trade relations. Key focus is on the US PCE inflation data, a crucial metric for Federal Reserve policy.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains above 99.00, supported by rising yields on 2- and 10-year US Treasuries, now around 3.66% and 4.17%, respectively — a sign of continued investor appetite for USD.
Meanwhile, the latest JOLTS report showed US job openings falling to 7.19 million in March, the lowest since September 2024, pointing to a cooling labor market and adding to economic uncertainty.
Sterling also faces pressure from rising expectations that the Bank of England may cut rates at its May meeting. Declining inflation expectations and growing global risks reinforce this outlook.
BoE official Megan Greene recently noted that US tariffs proposed by Trump could lower UK inflation, though broader economic and fiscal uncertainties remain.
Forecast for May 1
USDJPY: BUY 142.80, SL 142.40, TP 143.80
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change in the United States
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) is trading in a tight range against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by mixed signals. Risk sentiment remains supported after Trump signed a directive easing the impact of new tariffs on the auto sector, and hopes for fresh trade deals persist. However, weak domestic data continues to limit demand for the yen as a safe haven.
Traders are staying cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting beginning today. The BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged due to lingering economic risks tied to US tariffs. Still, signs of rising inflation in Japan keep the door open for future policy normalization, which could lend longer-term support to the yen.
USDJPY: BUY 142.80, SL 142.40, TP 143.80
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change in the United States
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) is trading in a tight range against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by mixed signals. Risk sentiment remains supported after Trump signed a directive easing the impact of new tariffs on the auto sector, and hopes for fresh trade deals persist. However, weak domestic data continues to limit demand for the yen as a safe haven.
Traders are staying cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting beginning today. The BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged due to lingering economic risks tied to US tariffs. Still, signs of rising inflation in Japan keep the door open for future policy normalization, which could lend longer-term support to the yen.
Brent under pressure: A rebound may be coming
📉 Brent has dropped below $60 — down over 21% this year due to oversupply, weak demand, and trade tensions.
📈 But FreshForex analysts see upside risks: geopolitical tensions, strict OPEC+ cuts, and low oil investment could lift prices.
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📉 Brent has dropped below $60 — down over 21% this year due to oversupply, weak demand, and trade tensions.
📈 But FreshForex analysts see upside risks: geopolitical tensions, strict OPEC+ cuts, and low oil investment could lift prices.
🔥 Use promo code CRY10 to deposit crypto and get +10% (up to $500)!
Trade #BRENT and #WTI with 1:1000 leverage and tight spreads.