Forecast for May 1
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3390, SL 1.3420, TP 1.3300
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change in the US
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is falling for a second straight session, trading around 1.3390 in Asia amid broad USD strength and renewed optimism over US-China trade relations. Key focus is on the US PCE inflation data, a crucial metric for Federal Reserve policy.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains above 99.00, supported by rising yields on 2- and 10-year US Treasuries, now around 3.66% and 4.17%, respectively — a sign of continued investor appetite for USD.
Meanwhile, the latest JOLTS report showed US job openings falling to 7.19 million in March, the lowest since September 2024, pointing to a cooling labor market and adding to economic uncertainty.
Sterling also faces pressure from rising expectations that the Bank of England may cut rates at its May meeting. Declining inflation expectations and growing global risks reinforce this outlook.
BoE official Megan Greene recently noted that US tariffs proposed by Trump could lower UK inflation, though broader economic and fiscal uncertainties remain.
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3390, SL 1.3420, TP 1.3300
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change in the US
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair is falling for a second straight session, trading around 1.3390 in Asia amid broad USD strength and renewed optimism over US-China trade relations. Key focus is on the US PCE inflation data, a crucial metric for Federal Reserve policy.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains above 99.00, supported by rising yields on 2- and 10-year US Treasuries, now around 3.66% and 4.17%, respectively — a sign of continued investor appetite for USD.
Meanwhile, the latest JOLTS report showed US job openings falling to 7.19 million in March, the lowest since September 2024, pointing to a cooling labor market and adding to economic uncertainty.
Sterling also faces pressure from rising expectations that the Bank of England may cut rates at its May meeting. Declining inflation expectations and growing global risks reinforce this outlook.
BoE official Megan Greene recently noted that US tariffs proposed by Trump could lower UK inflation, though broader economic and fiscal uncertainties remain.
Forecast for May 1
USDJPY: BUY 142.80, SL 142.40, TP 143.80
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change in the United States
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) is trading in a tight range against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by mixed signals. Risk sentiment remains supported after Trump signed a directive easing the impact of new tariffs on the auto sector, and hopes for fresh trade deals persist. However, weak domestic data continues to limit demand for the yen as a safe haven.
Traders are staying cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting beginning today. The BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged due to lingering economic risks tied to US tariffs. Still, signs of rising inflation in Japan keep the door open for future policy normalization, which could lend longer-term support to the yen.
USDJPY: BUY 142.80, SL 142.40, TP 143.80
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Quarterly GDP Change in the United States
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) is trading in a tight range against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by mixed signals. Risk sentiment remains supported after Trump signed a directive easing the impact of new tariffs on the auto sector, and hopes for fresh trade deals persist. However, weak domestic data continues to limit demand for the yen as a safe haven.
Traders are staying cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting beginning today. The BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged due to lingering economic risks tied to US tariffs. Still, signs of rising inflation in Japan keep the door open for future policy normalization, which could lend longer-term support to the yen.
Brent under pressure: A rebound may be coming
📉 Brent has dropped below $60 — down over 21% this year due to oversupply, weak demand, and trade tensions.
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📉 Brent has dropped below $60 — down over 21% this year due to oversupply, weak demand, and trade tensions.
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🤑 Bitcoin hits $100K again — and it’s just the start!
ETF inflows, soft SEC stance, and Trump’s comments fuel the rally.
📈 On May 8, BTC broke $100K, gaining 5.3% in a day. Market cap topped $2T.
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What’s driving BTC higher:
🔹 Fed rate cut expectations & Trump’s push for lower rates.
🔹 US–UK trade deal optimism.
🔹 Record ETF inflows — up to $2.68B last week.
🔹 Weak USD & lower bond yields.
🔹 BTC dominance over 60% — FOMO kicking in.
New SEC Chair and Arizona’s pro-crypto law boost the outlook.
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ETF inflows, soft SEC stance, and Trump’s comments fuel the rally.
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What’s driving BTC higher:
🔹 Fed rate cut expectations & Trump’s push for lower rates.
🔹 US–UK trade deal optimism.
🔹 Record ETF inflows — up to $2.68B last week.
🔹 Weak USD & lower bond yields.
🔹 BTC dominance over 60% — FOMO kicking in.
New SEC Chair and Arizona’s pro-crypto law boost the outlook.
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Forecast for May 14
EURUSD: SELL 1.1070, SL 1.1170, TP 1.0870
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index
EURUSD:
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EUR/USD opened higher near 1.1110 after losing over 2.5% in the previous session.
Markets gained support after the US and China agreed to cut tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively.
Traders now await April’s US CPI data, with core inflation expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, while annual figures are forecast to remain unchanged.
The euro remains under pressure amid expectations of further ECB easing, although ECB’s Isabel Schnabel signaled that current rates remain neutral.
EURUSD: SELL 1.1070, SL 1.1170, TP 1.0870
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index
EURUSD:
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EUR/USD opened higher near 1.1110 after losing over 2.5% in the previous session.
Markets gained support after the US and China agreed to cut tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively.
Traders now await April’s US CPI data, with core inflation expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month, while annual figures are forecast to remain unchanged.
The euro remains under pressure amid expectations of further ECB easing, although ECB’s Isabel Schnabel signaled that current rates remain neutral.
Forecast for May 14
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3225, SL 1.3125, TP 1.3425
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index
🔹 18:00 EET. USD - BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks
GBPUSD:
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GBP/USD climbs toward 1.3195, supported by progress in US-UK trade talks — Trump announced tariff cuts on UK cars, steel, and aluminum.
The pound also benefits from the Bank of England’s cautious easing, cutting rates by 25 bps and raising its growth outlook to 1%.
Focus now shifts to US inflation data due later on Tuesday.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3225, SL 1.3125, TP 1.3425
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index
🔹 18:00 EET. USD - BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks
GBPUSD:
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GBP/USD climbs toward 1.3195, supported by progress in US-UK trade talks — Trump announced tariff cuts on UK cars, steel, and aluminum.
The pound also benefits from the Bank of England’s cautious easing, cutting rates by 25 bps and raising its growth outlook to 1%.
Focus now shifts to US inflation data due later on Tuesday.
Forecast for May 14
USDJPY: SELL 147.40, SL 148.40, TP 145.40
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index
USDJPY:
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The Bank of Japan highlights both risks from US tariffs and rising wages that may support inflation expectations. Japan’s Finance Ministry is discussing currency issues with US officials.
The BoJ’s latest policy summary revealed divided views — some see room for further rate hikes, while others favor maintaining the current stance.
All eyes are now on US CPI data expected later on Tuesday.
USDJPY: SELL 147.40, SL 148.40, TP 145.40
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index
USDJPY:
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The Bank of Japan highlights both risks from US tariffs and rising wages that may support inflation expectations. Japan’s Finance Ministry is discussing currency issues with US officials.
The BoJ’s latest policy summary revealed divided views — some see room for further rate hikes, while others favor maintaining the current stance.
All eyes are now on US CPI data expected later on Tuesday.
Forecast for May 15
EURUSD: BUY 1.1200, SL 1.1180 , TP 1.1300
EURUSD:
EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1200 on Tuesday, driven by broad US Dollar weakness, with no clear bullish drivers for the euro itself.
The market showed little reaction to US CPI, which revealed core inflation falling to a three-year low. Optimism around Trump’s trade talks continues, although the tariff concessions remain temporary. New tariffs are expected to weigh on the economy starting in May.
On Thursday, eurozone GDP data is due, with stable results expected. In the US, focus shifts to Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s consumer sentiment index.
EURUSD: BUY 1.1200, SL 1.1180 , TP 1.1300
EURUSD:
EUR/USD rebounded to 1.1200 on Tuesday, driven by broad US Dollar weakness, with no clear bullish drivers for the euro itself.
The market showed little reaction to US CPI, which revealed core inflation falling to a three-year low. Optimism around Trump’s trade talks continues, although the tariff concessions remain temporary. New tariffs are expected to weigh on the economy starting in May.
On Thursday, eurozone GDP data is due, with stable results expected. In the US, focus shifts to Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s consumer sentiment index.
Forecast for May 15
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3330, SL 1.3310, TP 1.3420
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD climbed above 1.3300 on Tuesday, recovering earlier losses amid broad USD weakness. UK jobs data and US CPI had little impact on the market. Investors remain hopeful about progress in Trump’s trade negotiations, though tariff relief is seen as temporary.
UK unemployment edged up to 4.5% as expected, while jobless claims rose by just 5.2K, below forecasts. US CPI showed core inflation hitting a three-year low, but new tariffs are expected to start weighing on the economy in May.
Traders now await Thursday’s UK Q1 GDP data, with forecasts pointing to 0.6% quarterly growth and a slowdown to 1.2% year-on-year.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3330, SL 1.3310, TP 1.3420
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD climbed above 1.3300 on Tuesday, recovering earlier losses amid broad USD weakness. UK jobs data and US CPI had little impact on the market. Investors remain hopeful about progress in Trump’s trade negotiations, though tariff relief is seen as temporary.
UK unemployment edged up to 4.5% as expected, while jobless claims rose by just 5.2K, below forecasts. US CPI showed core inflation hitting a three-year low, but new tariffs are expected to start weighing on the economy in May.
Traders now await Thursday’s UK Q1 GDP data, with forecasts pointing to 0.6% quarterly growth and a slowdown to 1.2% year-on-year.
Forecast for May 15
USDJPY: SELL 147.10, SL 147.30, TP 146.10
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen extended its gains for the second day, showing little reaction to flat PPI data. Hawkish comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida support expectations of policy tightening, boosting demand for the yen.
Weak US CPI has increased bets on Fed rate cuts, adding pressure on USD/JPY. Meanwhile, optimism over a 90-day US-China tariff truce limits safe-haven flows into the yen.
The policy divergence between the BoJ and Fed suggests further downside for USD/JPY. Traders are now watching upcoming Fed speakers and overall market sentiment.
USDJPY: SELL 147.10, SL 147.30, TP 146.10
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen extended its gains for the second day, showing little reaction to flat PPI data. Hawkish comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida support expectations of policy tightening, boosting demand for the yen.
Weak US CPI has increased bets on Fed rate cuts, adding pressure on USD/JPY. Meanwhile, optimism over a 90-day US-China tariff truce limits safe-haven flows into the yen.
The policy divergence between the BoJ and Fed suggests further downside for USD/JPY. Traders are now watching upcoming Fed speakers and overall market sentiment.
Forecast for May 20
EURUSD: BUY 1.1200, SL 1.1130, TP 1.1290
EURUSD:
EUR/USD recovers toward 1.1190 as the US dollar comes under pressure following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising debt and growing interest costs. This marks the third downgrade after Fitch in 2023 and S&P in 2011. Moody’s projects US debt to reach 134% of GDP by 2035, with the budget deficit nearing 9% of GDP.
However, dollar losses are limited by easing trade tensions after the US and China agreed to lower tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively, alongside hopes for a US-Iran nuclear deal and upcoming US-Russia talks on Ukraine.
The euro remains under pressure as expectations grow that the ECB will cut rates again, given weak economic conditions and inflation hovering at the 2% target.
EURUSD: BUY 1.1200, SL 1.1130, TP 1.1290
EURUSD:
EUR/USD recovers toward 1.1190 as the US dollar comes under pressure following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing rising debt and growing interest costs. This marks the third downgrade after Fitch in 2023 and S&P in 2011. Moody’s projects US debt to reach 134% of GDP by 2035, with the budget deficit nearing 9% of GDP.
However, dollar losses are limited by easing trade tensions after the US and China agreed to lower tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively, alongside hopes for a US-Iran nuclear deal and upcoming US-Russia talks on Ukraine.
The euro remains under pressure as expectations grow that the ECB will cut rates again, given weak economic conditions and inflation hovering at the 2% target.
Forecast for May 20
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3315, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3400
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD rebounds toward 1.3300 as the dollar weakens following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating to Aa1 due to rising debt and servicing costs—its third downgrade after Fitch in 2023 and S&P in 2011. Moody’s forecasts US debt to climb to 134% of GDP and the deficit to 9% by 2035.
Expectations of Fed rate cuts have strengthened after the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in May, the lowest since 2022.
The dollar finds some support from reduced trade tensions, with the US and China agreeing to cut tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively. Market sentiment is also buoyed by hopes for a nuclear deal with Iran and US-Russia talks on Ukraine.
The pound strengthens on better-than-expected UK GDP data, boosting expectations that the Bank of England will keep rates steady.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3315, SL 1.3250, TP 1.3400
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD rebounds toward 1.3300 as the dollar weakens following Moody’s downgrade of the US credit rating to Aa1 due to rising debt and servicing costs—its third downgrade after Fitch in 2023 and S&P in 2011. Moody’s forecasts US debt to climb to 134% of GDP and the deficit to 9% by 2035.
Expectations of Fed rate cuts have strengthened after the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in May, the lowest since 2022.
The dollar finds some support from reduced trade tensions, with the US and China agreeing to cut tariffs to 30% and 10%, respectively. Market sentiment is also buoyed by hopes for a nuclear deal with Iran and US-Russia talks on Ukraine.
The pound strengthens on better-than-expected UK GDP data, boosting expectations that the Bank of England will keep rates steady.
Forecast for May 20
USDJPY: SELL 144.70, SL 145.50, TP 143.80
USDJPY:
USD/JPY drops toward 144.80, hitting a weekly low, as expectations of another BoJ rate hike in 2025 and Moody’s US downgrade to Aa1 increase demand for safe-haven assets like the yen.
The dollar remains pressured by growing expectations of Fed rate cuts amid soft inflation and slowing US economic growth. With no key US data scheduled for Monday, the dollar will likely respond to comments from FOMC members and overall market sentiment.
Diverging policy outlooks between the Fed and the BoJ support the bearish view for USD/JPY, with any rebound likely seen as a selling opportunity.
USDJPY: SELL 144.70, SL 145.50, TP 143.80
USDJPY:
USD/JPY drops toward 144.80, hitting a weekly low, as expectations of another BoJ rate hike in 2025 and Moody’s US downgrade to Aa1 increase demand for safe-haven assets like the yen.
The dollar remains pressured by growing expectations of Fed rate cuts amid soft inflation and slowing US economic growth. With no key US data scheduled for Monday, the dollar will likely respond to comments from FOMC members and overall market sentiment.
Diverging policy outlooks between the Fed and the BoJ support the bearish view for USD/JPY, with any rebound likely seen as a selling opportunity.
Forecast for May 27
EURUSD: BUY 1.1420, SL 1.1400, TP 1.1520
Event to pay attention today:
🔹 17:30 EET. EUR- ECB President Christine Lagarde to deliver a speech
EURUSD:
EUR/USD extends gains for the second consecutive session, trading around 1.1390 on Monday morning. The euro is strengthening following a Bloomberg report that former President Trump agreed to extend the 50% tariffs on EU goods until July 9. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU is ready to accelerate trade talks with the U.S., but more time is needed to finalize a deal.
U.S. markets are closed on Monday for Memorial Day.
Last Friday, Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs starting June 1, 2025, calling the EU’s trade offer unsatisfactory.
Additional support for the pair comes from continued dollar weakness amid growing uncertainty over the U.S. economy. A large spending bill is expected to widen the budget deficit, which could keep bond yields elevated and raise borrowing costs.
Moreover, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, warning that federal debt could rise to 134% of GDP by 2035, with the budget deficit reaching 9% of GDP.
EURUSD: BUY 1.1420, SL 1.1400, TP 1.1520
Event to pay attention today:
🔹 17:30 EET. EUR- ECB President Christine Lagarde to deliver a speech
EURUSD:
EUR/USD extends gains for the second consecutive session, trading around 1.1390 on Monday morning. The euro is strengthening following a Bloomberg report that former President Trump agreed to extend the 50% tariffs on EU goods until July 9. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU is ready to accelerate trade talks with the U.S., but more time is needed to finalize a deal.
U.S. markets are closed on Monday for Memorial Day.
Last Friday, Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs starting June 1, 2025, calling the EU’s trade offer unsatisfactory.
Additional support for the pair comes from continued dollar weakness amid growing uncertainty over the U.S. economy. A large spending bill is expected to widen the budget deficit, which could keep bond yields elevated and raise borrowing costs.
Moreover, Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, warning that federal debt could rise to 134% of GDP by 2035, with the budget deficit reaching 9% of GDP.
Forecast for May 27
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3590, SL 1.3570, TP 1.3690
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD continues its strong upward momentum from last week, rising above 1.3550 on Monday — its highest level since February 2022 — supported by multiple factors.
The British pound is gaining strength on the back of robust UK retail sales data, which highlight resilient consumer spending despite economic concerns. Additionally, higher-than-expected inflation in April has fueled speculation that the Bank of England may pause at its June 18 meeting and hold off on further rate cuts.
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure due to concerns that a new fiscal bill could accelerate the widening of the budget deficit. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates in 2025 have also pushed the dollar to a near one-month low, supporting further GBP/USD gains.
This week, investor focus will be on key U.S. data: durable goods orders (Tuesday), GDP (Thursday), FOMC minutes (Wednesday), and the PCE price index (Friday). These reports could influence rate expectations and impact the dollar’s direction.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3590, SL 1.3570, TP 1.3690
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD continues its strong upward momentum from last week, rising above 1.3550 on Monday — its highest level since February 2022 — supported by multiple factors.
The British pound is gaining strength on the back of robust UK retail sales data, which highlight resilient consumer spending despite economic concerns. Additionally, higher-than-expected inflation in April has fueled speculation that the Bank of England may pause at its June 18 meeting and hold off on further rate cuts.
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure due to concerns that a new fiscal bill could accelerate the widening of the budget deficit. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates in 2025 have also pushed the dollar to a near one-month low, supporting further GBP/USD gains.
This week, investor focus will be on key U.S. data: durable goods orders (Tuesday), GDP (Thursday), FOMC minutes (Wednesday), and the PCE price index (Friday). These reports could influence rate expectations and impact the dollar’s direction.
Forecast for May 27
USDJPY: SELL 142.50, SL 142.70, TP 141.50
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) advances to a new one-month high against a weaker U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday, driven by several supportive developments.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. at the upcoming G7 summit on June 15, aligning with market expectations for further tightening from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which continues to bolster the yen.
Japan’s lead negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said a meeting is being arranged with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to coordinate the next round of trade talks.
Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East, are also contributing to the yen’s status as a safe-haven currency. Meanwhile, concerns over the rising U.S. budget deficit and expectations that the Fed may adopt more stimulus measures are putting additional pressure on the dollar, weighing on USD/JPY.
USDJPY: SELL 142.50, SL 142.70, TP 141.50
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) advances to a new one-month high against a weaker U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday, driven by several supportive developments.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to reach a trade agreement with the U.S. at the upcoming G7 summit on June 15, aligning with market expectations for further tightening from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which continues to bolster the yen.
Japan’s lead negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said a meeting is being arranged with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to coordinate the next round of trade talks.
Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East, are also contributing to the yen’s status as a safe-haven currency. Meanwhile, concerns over the rising U.S. budget deficit and expectations that the Fed may adopt more stimulus measures are putting additional pressure on the dollar, weighing on USD/JPY.
Dive into the oil storm of 2025!
The Alliance shifts strategy — the market holds its breath.
Oil prices hit 4-year lows. OPEC+ boosts output, U.S. stockpiles grow, demand weakens, and the dollar strengthens. The Alliance proposes a 411,000 bpd increase — triple the original plan. Decision day: May 31. Goal: pressure U.S. shale, but oversupply grows.
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Still, recovery is possible:
🔹 rising demand in emerging markets
🔹 limited production investment
🔹 geopolitical risks
🔹 potential OPEC+ output cuts
💡 Bottom line: the market is strained, but the OPEC+ meeting could shift the tide.
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The Alliance shifts strategy — the market holds its breath.
Oil prices hit 4-year lows. OPEC+ boosts output, U.S. stockpiles grow, demand weakens, and the dollar strengthens. The Alliance proposes a 411,000 bpd increase — triple the original plan. Decision day: May 31. Goal: pressure U.S. shale, but oversupply grows.
📩 Use promo code BACK10 to get up to $10 loss refund on any closed trade if you deposit $100+ between May 27–31.
Still, recovery is possible:
🔹 rising demand in emerging markets
🔹 limited production investment
🔹 geopolitical risks
🔹 potential OPEC+ output cuts
💡 Bottom line: the market is strained, but the OPEC+ meeting could shift the tide.
Trade #BRENT and #WTI with FreshForex — benefit from 1:1000 leverage and tight spreads.
Forecast for May 29
EURUSD: SELL 1.1265, SL 1.1365, TP 1.1065
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair continues to decline for the second day, trading below 1.1400 amid a stronger U.S. dollar following upbeat consumer confidence data.
Risk sentiment improved after Trump spoke of progress in U.S.-EU trade talks, despite earlier threats of 50% tariffs. However, a deal before July 9 remains uncertain.
The May CB Consumer Confidence Index boosted the dollar, pushing the DXY up by 0.62% to 99.54.
ECB signals remain mixed: Simkus hinted at a possible rate cut in June, while Holzmann sees no reason for easing over the summer.
EURUSD: SELL 1.1265, SL 1.1365, TP 1.1065
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair continues to decline for the second day, trading below 1.1400 amid a stronger U.S. dollar following upbeat consumer confidence data.
Risk sentiment improved after Trump spoke of progress in U.S.-EU trade talks, despite earlier threats of 50% tariffs. However, a deal before July 9 remains uncertain.
The May CB Consumer Confidence Index boosted the dollar, pushing the DXY up by 0.62% to 99.54.
ECB signals remain mixed: Simkus hinted at a possible rate cut in June, while Holzmann sees no reason for easing over the summer.
Forecast for May 29
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3425, SL 1.3525, TP 1.3225
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
GBPUSD:
On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair pulled back from the 1.3600 area after hitting fresh multi-year highs.
Reduced expectations for frequent rate cuts by the Bank of England supported the pound, lifting it to its highest level since early 2022.
Trump floated the idea of 50% tariffs on EU imports starting June 1, but later delayed the decision to July 9—part of a now-familiar pattern.
The U.S. calendar is packed this week: FOMC minutes on Wednesday, Q1 GDP on Thursday, and April’s PCE inflation data on Friday.
GBPUSD: SELL 1.3425, SL 1.3525, TP 1.3225
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
GBPUSD:
On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair pulled back from the 1.3600 area after hitting fresh multi-year highs.
Reduced expectations for frequent rate cuts by the Bank of England supported the pound, lifting it to its highest level since early 2022.
Trump floated the idea of 50% tariffs on EU imports starting June 1, but later delayed the decision to July 9—part of a now-familiar pattern.
The U.S. calendar is packed this week: FOMC minutes on Wednesday, Q1 GDP on Thursday, and April’s PCE inflation data on Friday.
Forecast for May 29
USDJPY: SELL 144.20, SL 145.20, TP 142.20
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen fell to a one-week low against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, pressured by rising JGB yields and improved risk appetite, supporting USD/JPY.
Comments from Japan’s Finance Minister on curbing bond yield spikes added pressure on the yen, alongside continued USD buying.
However, upside for the pair is limited by expectations of another rate hike from the Bank of Japan, in contrast with the Fed’s dovish outlook. Uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and geopolitical risks may also lend support to the yen, while broader USD weakness could cap further USD/JPY gains.
USDJPY: SELL 144.20, SL 145.20, TP 142.20
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 21:00 EET. USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen fell to a one-week low against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, pressured by rising JGB yields and improved risk appetite, supporting USD/JPY.
Comments from Japan’s Finance Minister on curbing bond yield spikes added pressure on the yen, alongside continued USD buying.
However, upside for the pair is limited by expectations of another rate hike from the Bank of Japan, in contrast with the Fed’s dovish outlook. Uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and geopolitical risks may also lend support to the yen, while broader USD weakness could cap further USD/JPY gains.