🚨 Non-Farm Payrolls drops tomorrow!
The key U.S. jobs report hits at 3:30 PM EET, April 4 — and it could shake the markets!
📉 Weak numbers → USD down, gold up
📈 Strong report → USD rally, pressure on stocks and metals
🔥 Forecast: +140,000 new jobs — weaker than usual. Volatility is almost guaranteed.
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The key U.S. jobs report hits at 3:30 PM EET, April 4 — and it could shake the markets!
📉 Weak numbers → USD down, gold up
📈 Strong report → USD rally, pressure on stocks and metals
🔥 Forecast: +140,000 new jobs — weaker than usual. Volatility is almost guaranteed.
💡 Are you ready to trade the move?
🎁 Grab your 101% bonus up to $2,500 and make it count!
Forecast for April 7
EURUSD: BUY 1.1080, SL 1.1010, TP 1.1160
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair surged on Thursday, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar following the Trump administration’s announcement of new tariffs. On Friday, the euro pulled back slightly but remains poised for further gains.
This week’s European economic calendar is relatively light, but Friday’s release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report could significantly impact the markets, reflecting the effects of Trump’s tariff policy.
The U.S. ISM Services PMI for March dropped to a nine-month low of 50.8, deepening investor pessimism. Business sentiment had already been deteriorating in anticipation of the tariffs and is unlikely to recover quickly.
President Trump approved a 10% tariff on all imports starting April 5, with retaliatory tariffs taking effect on April 9. Fitch Ratings expects U.S. economic growth to slow and warns that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts while assessing the impact of the tariffs on inflation and employment.
EURUSD: BUY 1.1080, SL 1.1010, TP 1.1160
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair surged on Thursday, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar following the Trump administration’s announcement of new tariffs. On Friday, the euro pulled back slightly but remains poised for further gains.
This week’s European economic calendar is relatively light, but Friday’s release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report could significantly impact the markets, reflecting the effects of Trump’s tariff policy.
The U.S. ISM Services PMI for March dropped to a nine-month low of 50.8, deepening investor pessimism. Business sentiment had already been deteriorating in anticipation of the tariffs and is unlikely to recover quickly.
President Trump approved a 10% tariff on all imports starting April 5, with retaliatory tariffs taking effect on April 9. Fitch Ratings expects U.S. economic growth to slow and warns that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts while assessing the impact of the tariffs on inflation and employment.
Forecast for April 7
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3090, SL 1.3020, TP 1.3200
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls
GBPUSD:
On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair briefly broke above 1.3200 for the first time in six months, reaching fresh highs amid broad dollar weakness. The market reaction followed the tariff announcements made after U.S. markets closed on Wednesday.
The U.K. economic calendar is calm this week, but focus is on Friday’s NFP report, which could reveal the consequences of Trump’s trade policy and influence market sentiment.
The March ISM Services PMI in the U.S. fell to 50.8 — the lowest in nine months — marking one of the sharpest declines since the pandemic began. Business activity and consumer optimism had already been weakening before the tariffs and are unlikely to rebound quickly.
A 10% tariff on all imports took effect on April 5, with retaliatory measures starting April 9. Fitch Ratings forecasts slower U.S. GDP growth and notes the Fed may pause its monetary easing to gauge the tariffs’ impact on inflation and the labor market.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3090, SL 1.3020, TP 1.3200
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls
GBPUSD:
On Thursday, the GBP/USD pair briefly broke above 1.3200 for the first time in six months, reaching fresh highs amid broad dollar weakness. The market reaction followed the tariff announcements made after U.S. markets closed on Wednesday.
The U.K. economic calendar is calm this week, but focus is on Friday’s NFP report, which could reveal the consequences of Trump’s trade policy and influence market sentiment.
The March ISM Services PMI in the U.S. fell to 50.8 — the lowest in nine months — marking one of the sharpest declines since the pandemic began. Business activity and consumer optimism had already been weakening before the tariffs and are unlikely to rebound quickly.
A 10% tariff on all imports took effect on April 5, with retaliatory measures starting April 9. Fitch Ratings forecasts slower U.S. GDP growth and notes the Fed may pause its monetary easing to gauge the tariffs’ impact on inflation and the labor market.
Forecast for April 7
USDJPY: SELL 145.80, SL 146.40, TP 144.80
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen weakened during Friday’s Asian session amid growing concerns over the economic fallout from U.S. retaliatory tariffs. Rising global trade uncertainty has led markets to reassess expectations for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy, reducing the likelihood of aggressive rate hikes and weighing on the yen.
Nonetheless, signs of rising inflation in Japan — including higher consumer prices and wages — suggest the BoJ may continue its gradual tightening, potentially supporting the yen in the medium term, provided external conditions don’t worsen significantly.
The yen is also being supported by a broader decline in risk appetite, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions. Additionally, the weakening U.S. dollar, driven by recession fears and expectations that the Fed may resume cutting rates, further supports the yen.
USDJPY: SELL 145.80, SL 146.40, TP 144.80
Event to watch out for today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Payrolls
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen weakened during Friday’s Asian session amid growing concerns over the economic fallout from U.S. retaliatory tariffs. Rising global trade uncertainty has led markets to reassess expectations for the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy, reducing the likelihood of aggressive rate hikes and weighing on the yen.
Nonetheless, signs of rising inflation in Japan — including higher consumer prices and wages — suggest the BoJ may continue its gradual tightening, potentially supporting the yen in the medium term, provided external conditions don’t worsen significantly.
The yen is also being supported by a broader decline in risk appetite, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions. Additionally, the weakening U.S. dollar, driven by recession fears and expectations that the Fed may resume cutting rates, further supports the yen.
Forecast for April 8
EURUSD: SELL 1.0910, SL 1.1000, TP 1.0825
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair bounced back to 1.0880 after dropping during the Asian session and has since stabilized around 1.0960, pausing its correction from the September high near 1.1100. The pair is little changed on the day amid mixed market sentiment.
The US dollar started the week on a weak note, despite Friday’s rebound, as recession fears and expectations of renewed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve weigh on the currency. Markets are pricing in four quarter-point cuts in 2025. This, combined with a flight to safety, is driving US Treasury yields lower and supporting the euro.
However, concerns over a potential escalation in the US-EU trade conflict are capping EUR/USD’s upside. The EU may impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods, which could boost the dollar and limit gains for the pair.
Investors now await German industrial production, trade balance data, and the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index, but focus remains on trade-related developments that could impact risk sentiment and drive demand for the US dollar.
EURUSD: SELL 1.0910, SL 1.1000, TP 1.0825
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair bounced back to 1.0880 after dropping during the Asian session and has since stabilized around 1.0960, pausing its correction from the September high near 1.1100. The pair is little changed on the day amid mixed market sentiment.
The US dollar started the week on a weak note, despite Friday’s rebound, as recession fears and expectations of renewed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve weigh on the currency. Markets are pricing in four quarter-point cuts in 2025. This, combined with a flight to safety, is driving US Treasury yields lower and supporting the euro.
However, concerns over a potential escalation in the US-EU trade conflict are capping EUR/USD’s upside. The EU may impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods, which could boost the dollar and limit gains for the pair.
Investors now await German industrial production, trade balance data, and the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index, but focus remains on trade-related developments that could impact risk sentiment and drive demand for the US dollar.
Forecast for April 8
GBPUSD: SELL 1.2850, SL 1.2960, TP 1.2715
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair rebounded from a one-month low near 1.2830, seen during the Asian session, and stabilized around 1.2900, pausing its pullback from the six-month high. However, gains remain limited due to gloomy global economic prospects.
Rising trade tensions following new US tariffs have heightened fears of a global slowdown, dragging equity markets lower and increasing demand for the safe-haven dollar, which pressures the pound.
Still, investors are cautious about making aggressive dollar bets, as expectations grow that US economic weakness could push the Fed to resume rate cuts. Markets are already pricing in four such cuts in 2025, and falling US bond yields are undermining dollar strength.
GBPUSD: SELL 1.2850, SL 1.2960, TP 1.2715
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair rebounded from a one-month low near 1.2830, seen during the Asian session, and stabilized around 1.2900, pausing its pullback from the six-month high. However, gains remain limited due to gloomy global economic prospects.
Rising trade tensions following new US tariffs have heightened fears of a global slowdown, dragging equity markets lower and increasing demand for the safe-haven dollar, which pressures the pound.
Still, investors are cautious about making aggressive dollar bets, as expectations grow that US economic weakness could push the Fed to resume rate cuts. Markets are already pricing in four such cuts in 2025, and falling US bond yields are undermining dollar strength.
Forecast for April 8
USDJPY: BUY 147.00, SL 145.80, TP 148.15
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) began the week on a strong note amid rising concerns over a global slowdown triggered by new US tariffs, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, diminished expectations for rapid rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are supporting the yen. As a result, USD/JPY dropped back to a six-month low below 145.00 during the Asian session.
Nonetheless, rising inflation expectations in Japan keep the door open for further BoJ rate hikes in 2025. Geopolitical tensions may also limit any significant downside in the yen. On the other hand, the US dollar remains under pressure despite Friday’s rebound, as Fed rate cut expectations and falling Treasury yields weigh on the greenback and cap any meaningful USD/JPY recovery.
USDJPY: BUY 147.00, SL 145.80, TP 148.15
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) began the week on a strong note amid rising concerns over a global slowdown triggered by new US tariffs, boosting demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, diminished expectations for rapid rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are supporting the yen. As a result, USD/JPY dropped back to a six-month low below 145.00 during the Asian session.
Nonetheless, rising inflation expectations in Japan keep the door open for further BoJ rate hikes in 2025. Geopolitical tensions may also limit any significant downside in the yen. On the other hand, the US dollar remains under pressure despite Friday’s rebound, as Fed rate cut expectations and falling Treasury yields weigh on the greenback and cap any meaningful USD/JPY recovery.
Forecast for April 9
EURUSD: SELL 1.0950, SL 1.1030, TP 1.0830
EURUSD:
After a tense week in which the U.S. adopted a protectionist trade policy despite lacking a strong industrial base, broad import tariffs have come into effect. A general 10% import tax now applies to goods from all countries, alongside “reciprocal” tariffs calculated based on the U.S. import-export ratio. A 34% tariff was imposed on Chinese goods, prompting an identical response from China. The Trump administration has threatened an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports starting April 8.
This week, market attention returns to U.S. data: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due Thursday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
Investors are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates to prevent a recession. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in nearly 200 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, despite the Fed’s cautious messaging that trade uncertainty complicates the path to easing.
EURUSD: SELL 1.0950, SL 1.1030, TP 1.0830
EURUSD:
After a tense week in which the U.S. adopted a protectionist trade policy despite lacking a strong industrial base, broad import tariffs have come into effect. A general 10% import tax now applies to goods from all countries, alongside “reciprocal” tariffs calculated based on the U.S. import-export ratio. A 34% tariff was imposed on Chinese goods, prompting an identical response from China. The Trump administration has threatened an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports starting April 8.
This week, market attention returns to U.S. data: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due Thursday, followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
Investors are increasingly expecting the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates to prevent a recession. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in nearly 200 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, despite the Fed’s cautious messaging that trade uncertainty complicates the path to easing.
Forecast for April 9
GBPUSD: SELL 1.2750, SL 1.2830, TP 1.2600
GBPUSD:
Following a tense week where the U.S. embraced a protectionist stance without sufficient industrial support, large-scale import tariffs were introduced. A flat 10% import tax was applied across all countries, along with “reciprocal” tariffs based on the U.S. import/export ratio. A 34% tariff on Chinese goods was met with an identical Chinese response. The Trump administration threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports, effective April 8.
This week, focus once again shifts to key U.S. economic releases: CPI data is expected Thursday, followed by PPI and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey on Friday.
Markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates to offset recession risks. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in close to 200 basis points of rate cuts through the end of 2025, despite the Fed’s cautious tone and its emphasis on trade uncertainty as a complicating factor.
GBPUSD: SELL 1.2750, SL 1.2830, TP 1.2600
GBPUSD:
Following a tense week where the U.S. embraced a protectionist stance without sufficient industrial support, large-scale import tariffs were introduced. A flat 10% import tax was applied across all countries, along with “reciprocal” tariffs based on the U.S. import/export ratio. A 34% tariff on Chinese goods was met with an identical Chinese response. The Trump administration threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports, effective April 8.
This week, focus once again shifts to key U.S. economic releases: CPI data is expected Thursday, followed by PPI and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey on Friday.
Markets anticipate that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates to offset recession risks. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, traders are pricing in close to 200 basis points of rate cuts through the end of 2025, despite the Fed’s cautious tone and its emphasis on trade uncertainty as a complicating factor.
Forecast for April 9
USDJPY: SELL 147.00, SL 148.20, TP 144.60
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar during Tuesday’s Asian session, halting a sharp pullback from a multi-month high. Despite concerns that U.S. retaliatory tariffs could negatively impact Japan’s economy, persistent inflation in Japan keeps the door open for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2025 — a key factor supporting the yen.
Additionally, the yen benefits from its safe-haven status amid global economic uncertainty fueled by President Trump’s tariff policy. Meanwhile, traders are factoring in the possibility that a U.S. economic slowdown could push the Federal Reserve toward aggressive rate cuts, contrasting with the BoJ’s hawkish outlook and limiting the dollar’s two-day rebound from multi-month lows.
USDJPY: SELL 147.00, SL 148.20, TP 144.60
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen strengthened against the U.S. dollar during Tuesday’s Asian session, halting a sharp pullback from a multi-month high. Despite concerns that U.S. retaliatory tariffs could negatively impact Japan’s economy, persistent inflation in Japan keeps the door open for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2025 — a key factor supporting the yen.
Additionally, the yen benefits from its safe-haven status amid global economic uncertainty fueled by President Trump’s tariff policy. Meanwhile, traders are factoring in the possibility that a U.S. economic slowdown could push the Federal Reserve toward aggressive rate cuts, contrasting with the BoJ’s hawkish outlook and limiting the dollar’s two-day rebound from multi-month lows.
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Get a $895 bonus when you deposit $450 — kick off your trading journey with a powerful boost!
🚀 It’s simple:
1️⃣ Open a Classic 5, Classic 4, or Market Pro 4 account at FreshForex
2️⃣ Deposit $450
3️⃣ $895 bonus is yours!
Claim bonus
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Forecast for April 15
EURUSD: SELL 1.1350, SL 1.1450, TP 1.1200
EURUSD:
On Friday, China’s Ministry of Finance sharply raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% from 84%, in response to President Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to an unprecedented 145%. In an effort to ease tensions, the European Union suspended its planned retaliatory tariffs for 90 days, mirroring a similar move by Washington.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued to decline for a third consecutive session, falling below the 100.00 mark and nearing a three-year low. The drop reflects weakening investor confidence amid disappointing economic data and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 in April, while inflation expectations rose to 6.7%. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.7% year-over-year in March, down from 3.2% in February, and the core reading fell to 3.3%. Jobless claims rose to 223,000, but continuing claims fell to 1.85 million, highlighting mixed signals in the labor market.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the impact of the trade war largely depends on how quickly uncertainty is resolved, calling the current situation the biggest blow to confidence since March 2020.
EURUSD: SELL 1.1350, SL 1.1450, TP 1.1200
EURUSD:
On Friday, China’s Ministry of Finance sharply raised tariffs on U.S. goods to 125% from 84%, in response to President Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on Chinese imports to an unprecedented 145%. In an effort to ease tensions, the European Union suspended its planned retaliatory tariffs for 90 days, mirroring a similar move by Washington.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) continued to decline for a third consecutive session, falling below the 100.00 mark and nearing a three-year low. The drop reflects weakening investor confidence amid disappointing economic data and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve.
The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 50.8 in April, while inflation expectations rose to 6.7%. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 2.7% year-over-year in March, down from 3.2% in February, and the core reading fell to 3.3%. Jobless claims rose to 223,000, but continuing claims fell to 1.85 million, highlighting mixed signals in the labor market.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the impact of the trade war largely depends on how quickly uncertainty is resolved, calling the current situation the biggest blow to confidence since March 2020.
Forecast for April 15
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3130, SL 1.3010, TP 1.3310
GBPUSD:
Markets only briefly reacted to Trump’s decision to delay tariffs for 90 days, as recession fears in the U.S. intensified following the escalation of the trade conflict with China. On Thursday, China imposed 84% tariffs on U.S. goods, while the U.S. raised duties on Chinese imports to a record 145%. Given the U.S. still relies on several hard-to-replace Chinese materials, confidence in the economy has weakened.
Recent data showed a 0.1% decline in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, while core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year—below expectations. Markets are now pricing in a 90 basis point rate cut by year-end. In contrast, the probability of a Bank of England rate cut in May is seen as lower.
Despite a supportive fundamental backdrop, investors remain cautious, awaiting key UK data: the employment report on Tuesday and inflation figures on Wednesday. Attention will also be on U.S. retail sales and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, both of which could influence dollar dynamics and drive movement in the GBP/USD pair.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3130, SL 1.3010, TP 1.3310
GBPUSD:
Markets only briefly reacted to Trump’s decision to delay tariffs for 90 days, as recession fears in the U.S. intensified following the escalation of the trade conflict with China. On Thursday, China imposed 84% tariffs on U.S. goods, while the U.S. raised duties on Chinese imports to a record 145%. Given the U.S. still relies on several hard-to-replace Chinese materials, confidence in the economy has weakened.
Recent data showed a 0.1% decline in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March, while core CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year—below expectations. Markets are now pricing in a 90 basis point rate cut by year-end. In contrast, the probability of a Bank of England rate cut in May is seen as lower.
Despite a supportive fundamental backdrop, investors remain cautious, awaiting key UK data: the employment report on Tuesday and inflation figures on Wednesday. Attention will also be on U.S. retail sales and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech, both of which could influence dollar dynamics and drive movement in the GBP/USD pair.
Forecast for April 15
USDJPY: SELL 142.50, SL 144.50, TP 140.50
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen is strengthening at the start of the week, staying near its highest level since September 2024, reached last Friday amid broad U.S. dollar weakness. The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China continues to boost demand for traditional safe-haven assets like the yen. Additionally, hopes for a potential U.S.–Japan trade deal are also supporting the currency.
Signs of rising inflation in Japan keep the door open for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more accommodative stance due to concerns that the trade war could hinder U.S. economic growth. This narrows the rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the low-yielding yen is to the upside.
USDJPY: SELL 142.50, SL 144.50, TP 140.50
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen is strengthening at the start of the week, staying near its highest level since September 2024, reached last Friday amid broad U.S. dollar weakness. The escalating trade war between the U.S. and China continues to boost demand for traditional safe-haven assets like the yen. Additionally, hopes for a potential U.S.–Japan trade deal are also supporting the currency.
Signs of rising inflation in Japan keep the door open for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more accommodative stance due to concerns that the trade war could hinder U.S. economic growth. This narrows the rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the low-yielding yen is to the upside.
Forecast for April 16
EURUSD: SELL 1.1310, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1140
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair fluctuated between 1.1400 and 1.1300 on Monday, ending the day near the middle of that range. The US dollar continues to strengthen following the Trump administration’s withdrawal of tariff threats, though market sentiment remains weak due to lingering concerns over trade tensions.
On Tuesday, mid-tier sentiment indicators from Europe are due, followed by US retail sales data on Wednesday. However, the key event for the EUR/USD this week is Thursday’s ECB meeting, where markets widely expect a 25 basis point rate cut in response to the economic fallout from the US’s unstable tariff policies.
EURUSD: SELL 1.1310, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1140
EURUSD:
The EUR/USD pair fluctuated between 1.1400 and 1.1300 on Monday, ending the day near the middle of that range. The US dollar continues to strengthen following the Trump administration’s withdrawal of tariff threats, though market sentiment remains weak due to lingering concerns over trade tensions.
On Tuesday, mid-tier sentiment indicators from Europe are due, followed by US retail sales data on Wednesday. However, the key event for the EUR/USD this week is Thursday’s ECB meeting, where markets widely expect a 25 basis point rate cut in response to the economic fallout from the US’s unstable tariff policies.
Forecast for April 16
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3220, SL 1.3090, TP 1.3410
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair rose 0.75% on Monday, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains as the pound continues to recover against the weakening US dollar. However, upcoming UK economic data could impact the pair’s trajectory.
On Tuesday, UK labor market data will be released: unemployment is expected to remain at 4.4%, while jobless claims for March are forecast to drop to 30.3K from 44.2K in February. CPI inflation figures are due Wednesday, with overall annual inflation projected to ease to 2.7%, while core inflation is expected to remain at 3.5%.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3220, SL 1.3090, TP 1.3410
GBPUSD:
The GBP/USD pair rose 0.75% on Monday, marking its fifth consecutive session of gains as the pound continues to recover against the weakening US dollar. However, upcoming UK economic data could impact the pair’s trajectory.
On Tuesday, UK labor market data will be released: unemployment is expected to remain at 4.4%, while jobless claims for March are forecast to drop to 30.3K from 44.2K in February. CPI inflation figures are due Wednesday, with overall annual inflation projected to ease to 2.7%, while core inflation is expected to remain at 3.5%.
Forecast for April 16
USDJPY: SELL 142.80, SL 144.50, TP 140.50
USDJPY:
The yen is weakening on Tuesday, pushing the USD/JPY pair closer to the mid-143.00s amid modest US dollar strength. Trump’s decision to cancel tariffs on consumer electronics and the possibility of temporary relief for the auto sector are fueling market optimism, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like the yen.
However, the escalating US-China trade war and fears over the economic impact of Trump’s tariff strategy continue to weigh on risk appetite. Diverging monetary policy paths — expectations of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan versus potential easing by the Fed — along with hopes for a US-Japan trade deal, could help limit further losses for the low-yielding yen.
USDJPY: SELL 142.80, SL 144.50, TP 140.50
USDJPY:
The yen is weakening on Tuesday, pushing the USD/JPY pair closer to the mid-143.00s amid modest US dollar strength. Trump’s decision to cancel tariffs on consumer electronics and the possibility of temporary relief for the auto sector are fueling market optimism, reducing demand for safe-haven assets like the yen.
However, the escalating US-China trade war and fears over the economic impact of Trump’s tariff strategy continue to weigh on risk appetite. Diverging monetary policy paths — expectations of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan versus potential easing by the Fed — along with hopes for a US-Japan trade deal, could help limit further losses for the low-yielding yen.
Forecast for April 17
EURUSD: SELL 1.1260, SL 1.1360, TP 1.1080
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
EURUSD:
EUR/USD is trading higher around 1.1285 in early Asian hours on Wednesday. The US dollar remains near a three-year low amid persistent trade tensions.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that Trump’s tariff policy had significantly hurt the US economy and could force the Fed to cut rates even if inflation remains elevated. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic urged caution, suggesting rate cuts should wait until there’s more clarity.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday due to growing recession fears driven by US tariffs. Analysts also see the possibility of cuts to all three key rates. In March, the ECB lowered the deposit rate to 2.5%; another cut would bring it down to 2.25%.
EURUSD: SELL 1.1260, SL 1.1360, TP 1.1080
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
EURUSD:
EUR/USD is trading higher around 1.1285 in early Asian hours on Wednesday. The US dollar remains near a three-year low amid persistent trade tensions.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that Trump’s tariff policy had significantly hurt the US economy and could force the Fed to cut rates even if inflation remains elevated. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic urged caution, suggesting rate cuts should wait until there’s more clarity.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday due to growing recession fears driven by US tariffs. Analysts also see the possibility of cuts to all three key rates. In March, the ECB lowered the deposit rate to 2.5%; another cut would bring it down to 2.25%.
GBPUSD: BUY 1.3270, SL 1.3140, TP 1.3470
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD continues its rally from April 8 and is trading near 1.3250 in Wednesday’s Asian session, after touching a fresh six-month high at 1.3256 earlier in the day.
On Tuesday, UK labor market data showed the unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% in February, matching expectations. The Bank of England has so far refrained from easing policy, citing wage growth, but markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in May, along with two more cuts later this year.
Investors are now awaiting the UK’s March CPI report due later today. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dipped below 99.80, with focus turning to US retail sales data for March, which could shed light on the impact of trade issues on consumer behavior.
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
GBPUSD:
GBP/USD continues its rally from April 8 and is trading near 1.3250 in Wednesday’s Asian session, after touching a fresh six-month high at 1.3256 earlier in the day.
On Tuesday, UK labor market data showed the unemployment rate held steady at 4.4% in February, matching expectations. The Bank of England has so far refrained from easing policy, citing wage growth, but markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a rate cut in May, along with two more cuts later this year.
Investors are now awaiting the UK’s March CPI report due later today. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dipped below 99.80, with focus turning to US retail sales data for March, which could shed light on the impact of trade issues on consumer behavior.
Forecast for April 17
USDJPY: SELL 142.30, SL 143.70, TP 139.70
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) is rebounding after a slight pullback, supported by ongoing trade uncertainty that continues to drive demand for safe-haven assets. Additional support came from a sharp rise in Japan’s core machinery orders for February, beating market expectations, along with hopes for a trade deal with the US and growing confidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise rates in 2025.
BoJ’s hawkish outlook contrasts with increasing expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This could narrow the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, boosting the yen’s outlook. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains under pressure amid concerns that Trump’s trade policies could hinder US economic growth, keeping the USD/JPY pair near its six-month lows.
USDJPY: SELL 142.30, SL 143.70, TP 139.70
Event to pay attention to today:
🔹 15:30 EET. USD - Retail Sales
🔹 20:30 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
USDJPY:
The Japanese yen (JPY) is rebounding after a slight pullback, supported by ongoing trade uncertainty that continues to drive demand for safe-haven assets. Additional support came from a sharp rise in Japan’s core machinery orders for February, beating market expectations, along with hopes for a trade deal with the US and growing confidence that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise rates in 2025.
BoJ’s hawkish outlook contrasts with increasing expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. This could narrow the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, boosting the yen’s outlook. Meanwhile, the US dollar remains under pressure amid concerns that Trump’s trade policies could hinder US economic growth, keeping the USD/JPY pair near its six-month lows.