πΊπΈ#monetarypolicy #us #sentiment #history
the history of changes in the Fed rate and market expectations.
Investors are almost always wrong about the Fed rate.
market consensus: Fed will start cutting rates after June 2024.
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earlier: historically, U.S. stocks experience significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle. #warning
the history of changes in the Fed rate and market expectations.
Investors are almost always wrong about the Fed rate.
market consensus: Fed will start cutting rates after June 2024.
ββββββββββ
earlier: historically, U.S. stocks experience significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle. #warning
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #concentration #bubble #macro #history #warning
In terms of concentration (the top 5 stocks Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon account for 25% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 Index), today's US stock market bears similarities to the markets of 2000 and 1929 β Deutsche
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earlier: historically, high concentrations of a few companies in index weights have been observed during the formation of stock market bubbles
In terms of concentration (the top 5 stocks Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet and Amazon account for 25% of the market capitalization of the S&P 500 Index), today's US stock market bears similarities to the markets of 2000 and 1929 β Deutsche
βββββββ
earlier: historically, high concentrations of a few companies in index weights have been observed during the formation of stock market bubbles
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #bubble #warning
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller has been warning for many years that the U.S. market is overvalued. Yet, despite his warnings, the markets continue to rise. Although his own model for assessing market value, known as the Excess CAPE Yield, suggests that the current American market is cheaper than it was before the dot-com and 2008 crises, indicating that the U.S. stock market still has room to grow.
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S&P 500 would have to climb another 25% to reach dot-com-era 'irrational exuberance' β SocGen
Nobel laureate Robert Shiller has been warning for many years that the U.S. market is overvalued. Yet, despite his warnings, the markets continue to rise. Although his own model for assessing market value, known as the Excess CAPE Yield, suggests that the current American market is cheaper than it was before the dot-com and 2008 crises, indicating that the U.S. stock market still has room to grow.
ββββββββ
S&P 500 would have to climb another 25% to reach dot-com-era 'irrational exuberance' β SocGen
β οΈπΊπΈ#realestate #us #office #warning
US commercial real estate delinquency rates hit 12-year high.
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Ρommercial real estate prices in the U.S., with the exception of shopping malls, have plummeted over the past year (chart)
and the price decline may continue (chart)
#ONL #EQC #CIO
US commercial real estate delinquency rates hit 12-year high.
ββββββββββ
Ρommercial real estate prices in the U.S., with the exception of shopping malls, have plummeted over the past year (chart)
and the price decline may continue (chart)
#ONL #EQC #CIO
β οΈπΊπΈ#realestate #banks #us #office #warning
FT: bad commercial real estate loans have overtaken loss reserves at the biggest US banks after a sharp increase in late payments (here) linked to offices, shopping centres and other properties.
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BBG: fears of a systemic credit event are growing among fund managers as alarms sound in property markets around the world
FT: bad commercial real estate loans have overtaken loss reserves at the biggest US banks after a sharp increase in late payments (here) linked to offices, shopping centres and other properties.
βββββββββ
BBG: fears of a systemic credit event are growing among fund managers as alarms sound in property markets around the world
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #concentration #bubble #history #warning
market cap of the top 10% of stocks has hit its highest level since 1929, surpassing 2000.
ββββββββββ
today's US stock market bears similarities to the markets of 2000 and 1929 β Deutsche
market cap of the top 10% of stocks has hit its highest level since 1929, surpassing 2000.
ββββββββββ
today's US stock market bears similarities to the markets of 2000 and 1929 β Deutsche
β οΈπΊπΈ#stocks #us #tech #bonds #opinion #history #warning #bubble
analysts at Bank of America (BofA) have concluded that the ongoing growth of the "magnificent seven" stocks since 2022 could be halted by an increase in the real yield of 10-year government bonds to 2.5-3%. Currently, the real yield stands at 2%, representing the difference between the yields of 10-year government bonds and inflation.
analysts at Bank of America (BofA) have concluded that the ongoing growth of the "magnificent seven" stocks since 2022 could be halted by an increase in the real yield of 10-year government bonds to 2.5-3%. Currently, the real yield stands at 2%, representing the difference between the yields of 10-year government bonds and inflation.
β οΈπΊπΈ#banks #us #NYCB #realestate #warning
New York Community Bancorp is under pressure again:
- Q4 loss balloons to $2.7B = bank's market cap
- concerns about the risks associated with CRE
- CEO resigns
ββββββββββ
earlier: New York Community Bancorp's stock plunge raises fears of wider financial mess
#wathlist
New York Community Bancorp is under pressure again:
- Q4 loss balloons to $2.7B = bank's market cap
- concerns about the risks associated with CRE
- CEO resigns
ββββββββββ
earlier: New York Community Bancorp's stock plunge raises fears of wider financial mess
#wathlist