⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #bonds #us #history
MacroEdge: the last time stocks were this pricey versus debt was during the dot-com boom - that was followed by a 50% crash in the S&P 500

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #bonds #us #opinion #sentiment
billionaire Howard Marks highlights that bond yields are now on par with those of stocks. He recommends shifting from stocks to bonds.

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #bonds
for the first time in 22 years, U.S. stocks have become less attractive than bonds
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earlier: billionaire Howard Marks recommends shifting from stocks to bonds

❗️🌎#bonds #em #us #macro
BBG: an unlikely aberration has taken place in global bond markets for the first time on record: yields on emerging-market bonds in local currencies have fallen below US Treasuries = threat EM markets

⚠️🇺🇸#bonds #us #recession #history
BBG: this is the swiftest rise in U.S. government bond yields in 40 years. Historically, such rapid increases have frequently coincided with recessions
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BofA: bonds to ‘rally big’ in 2024 amid recession

🇺🇸#bonds #us #sentiment
an increasing number of strategists anticipate further recovery in the U.S. bond market — BBG
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Bloomberg Intelligence: US treasuries are poised for double-digit returns in 2024

Barrons: time to buy US bonds

Bill Ackman, recently closed out his bets against US Treasuries

Billionaire Druckenmiller has 'massive' bullish bets on U.S. Treasuries.

Vanguard is bullish on longer-dated US Treasuries

earlier: global fund managers are very bullish on bonds

🇺🇸#bonds #us #history
BofA: US Treasury oversold = historical highs
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earlier: US bonds to ‘rally big’ in 2024 amid recession

earlier: an increasing number of strategists anticipate further recovery in the U.S. bond market

🌎#bonds #debt #world
global negative-yielding debt volume experiences epic decline

⚠️🇨🇳#markets #china #stocks #bonds
In 2023, investors dumped Chinese stocks and bonds at a record pace

🇺🇸#bonds #us
BofA: historically, Fed rate cut cycles have led to robust rallies in US Treasuries. The yield on US 10-year bonds may fall to 2.25% by May 2024.
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earlier: an increasing number of strategists anticipate further recovery in the U.S. bond market

🇺🇸#stocks #bonds #tbill #us
the spread between S&P 500 dividend yield and US 3-month Treasury yields is at its lowest since 2001 = the dividend attractiveness of US stocks compared to cash is currently at a 23-year low.

⚠️#warning historically, US 3-month Treasury has gone this deep into negative territory at market tops, and then there has been a significant decline in stock prices (crash of 1987, bear market of 2000-2002, financial crisis of 2008).

❗️🌎#bonds #crisis #macro #history
in the past, spikes in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields have often preceded crises.

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #tech #bonds #opinion #history #warning #bubble
analysts at Bank of America (BofA) have concluded that the ongoing growth of the "magnificent seven" stocks since 2022 could be halted by an increase in the real yield of 10-year government bonds to 2.5-3%. Currently, the real yield stands at 2%, representing the difference between the yields of 10-year government bonds and inflation.

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #bonds #history
Mcrobond: the yield of a classic portfolio (60% stocks and 40% bonds) in the US stock market, adjusted for the money market yield, has long been negative = historically, at these levels, the S&P 500 (including dividends) has experienced significant declines.

⚠️#bonds #us #inflation
the yield on 10-year US Treasuries continues to rise against the backdrop of potential inflation growth in the US.
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copper prices signal the start of US inflationary growth (chart)

🇺🇸#stocks #us #bonds #macro
the US bond market has once again become more attractive than the stock market.

🇺🇸#bonds #us #seasonality
US 30-Year Treasury seasonality.

рistorically, long-term U.S. government bonds tend to increase in the second and third quarters.