Scorpi18 | Market Insights
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Insights and analysis of the global financial market by investment advisor Sergio Shalamov.

Note: This is not an investment advice.

Chat for investors: https://t.me/+lLbjdcohKhc5MDBi

Contact: @invoyager

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β—οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#banks #us #insider #macro
insiders are buying shares of US banks at record rates
🌎 #quantum #cyberattack #banks
the emergence of functional quantum computers within the next 10-15 years could pose the most significant threat to the security of banking data worldwide β€” BIS
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#banks #realestate #us #watchlist
Fortune: commercial real estate exposure of US banks

❗️#CFG #MCB #ALLY #FHN
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#markets #recession #opinion #warning
JPMorgan bond chief Bob Michele sees worrying echoes of 2008 in market calm

In previous rate-hiking cycles going back to 1980, recessions start an average of 13 months after the Fed’s final rate increase, he said

Pain is likely to be greatest in three areas of the economy: Regional banks, commercial real estate and junk-rated corporate borrowers, he said #banks #realestate #highyield #bonds

some US banks are preparing to sell off property loans β€” FT

investors have started a sell-off in US office real estate - prices

❗️#CIO #watchlist
🌎#markets #world #flow
weekly financial flows - BofA -EPFR (week through June. 21):

WORLD STOCKS = -$5B #stocks

TECH STOCKS = -$2B = highest weekly outflow in 10 weeks #tech

FIN STOCKS = +$1B = highest weekly inflow in 10 weeks #banks

WORLD BONDS = +$5.4B #bonds

WORLD CASH = -$13.9B #cash

GOLD = -$1B #gold

UK STOCKS = outflows persist for 24 consecutive weeks #uk

INVESTMENT-GRAD BONDS = 12 consecutive weeks of outflows = the longest streak since October 2021 #ig

BofA: BofA Bull & Bear Indicator signals worsening sentiment in risk assets.
πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡·πŸ‡Ί#banks #europe
ECB urges European banks to speed up Russia exit.

#RBI Raiffeisen earned half its net profit from the Russian market

Bloomberg Intelligence: Raiffeisen, with more than €20 billion, is by far the most exposed, with management projecting as much as a 230-bp hit to CET1 should it fully write down its Russia unit
πŸ’₯πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#banks #us #keepcalm
Fed: US's largest banks pass stress tests successfully

Fed: all 23 banks tested remained above their minimum capital requirements during the hypothetical recession, despite total projected losses of $541B

Fed: major banks are resilient to significant (-40%) commercial real estate decline #realestate

#COF
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#banks #lending #cars
US banks are continuing to cut back on auto lending, and some are even completely exiting this business

#COF #CFG #ALLY
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#lending #us #student
Supreme Court strikes down Biden's plan to forgive student loan debt

New York Fed: student loan borrowers had over $195B in waived payments, likely exceeding $300B now

Deutsche: if students are going to have to resume their payments, that will have an effect on credit card #banks

⚠️#NAVI #SLM #OMF #COF
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#banks #us #lending #macro
US - Banks credit is contracting

#COF #ALLY
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#banks #creditcard #defaults #us #economy
delinquencies on U.S. credit cards continue to rise

#COF #BFH
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#banks #us #macro
U.S. banks' combined unrealized losses have resumed growth, reaching nearly $700B β€” FDIC
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#banks #us #macro
U.S. banks' total unrealized losses on securities are again at record levels.
β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”
US regional banks are under renewed scrutiny after their stocks plunged β€” RTRS

US regional bank sell-off a cautionary sign of more pain to come β€” RTRS
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#banks #us #NYCB
market cap of New York Community Bank = 21-year low = such a decline was not seen even during the GFC (2008)

earlier: NYCB's credit grade is cut to junk by Moody's
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US regional bank sell-off a cautionary sign of more pain to come β€” RTRS
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #banks #us #office #warning
FT: bad commercial real estate loans have overtaken loss reserves at the biggest US banks after a sharp increase in late payments (here) linked to offices, shopping centres and other properties.
β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”
BBG: fears of a systemic credit event are growing among fund managers as alarms sound in property markets around the world
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#banks #us #NYCB #realestate #warning
New York Community Bancorp is under pressure again:

- Q4 loss balloons to $2.7B = bank's market cap

- concerns about the risks associated with CRE

- CEO resigns

β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”
earlier: New York Community Bancorp's stock plunge raises fears of wider financial mess

#wathlist
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#banks #creditcards #us #lending #macro
delinquencies on U.S. credit card accounts continue to rise

⚠️#BFH
πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί#stocks #banks #europe
EU bank stocks remain too cheap despite the increasing profitability of the banking business.
β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”β€”
EU stocks are at a record low valuation compared to US stocks (chart)

❗️#RBI