⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🔎 Against the Backdrop of the Counteroffensive's Failure and Setbacks on the International Political Arena - Zelensky is in vital Need of Victories - therefore, another Round of Escalation in #Crimea looks very Logical⚡️

🇺🇸 In addition, the topic of #Crimea is very important to the Western master. The return of the peninsula back to #Russia was painfully perceived by the Western elites. For them #Crimea has become a principled and obsessive idea.

🔹 Of course, taking #Crimea under control is an impossible task for the AFU even in the most favourable course of events on the front. But inflicting damage, primarily media damage, is a relatively realistic task.

🔹 We see two options for the development of further events:

🇺🇦 1) If the Initiator is Zelensky

▪️ The execution will be carried out by the GUR of the Ukrainian MoD. Resources are limited. They will act on the basis of available forces and means. They will count on the effect of surprise and personal boldness in actions. For example, a Special Forces team lands on the coast. They fire on any coastal objects from RPGs or largecalibre machine guns, record this action on camera and return to mainland #Ukraine. Even with casualties, because media is more important to them.

▪️ In case of success, it will give Zelensky an excuse to beg money from his Western masters, and the morale of Ukrainian soldiers will be slightly and temporarily, but it will raise.

🇬🇧 2) If the Initiator is UK

▪️ Anglo-Saxons are very fond of amphibious operations. Here it is possible to conduct a largescale, in the conditions of modern warfare, with modern intelligence systems, and even strangers' hands. And all primarily for the sake of making additions to their manuals on this subject. They don't give a damn how many Ukrops will die. However, this operation will also fall on the shoulders of the "SBS" - Special Boat Service, a special operations unit of the British Royal Navy. This will give Ukrainian soldiers the opportunity to use large forces, excellent technical equipment and intelligence data in the "online" mode, after all, in the sky above the Black Sea all this time will be circling some MQ-9 "Reaper".

🔹 That's how we see it!

❗️It is extremely difficult to fully control the coastline of #Crimea. #NATO's aerial reconnaissance will perfectly identify a loophole. That's why this loophole will be approached covertly by a small special group on boats. Approaching at the maximum permissible distance. Possibly using divers underwater and exit on the shore. Clearing the patrol, perhaps even disable the Bastion, for a discreet passage of the rest of the group on the boats. And further events can develop in 3 ways:

▪️ 1) A large force of gunboats will approach, inflict a fire defeat (loud enough so that it cannot be hidden from the public), possibly with great destruction, casualties or even taking prisoners. After a quick withdrawal.

▪️ 2) A large approaching group creates noise, which will become a distraction. Meanwhile, the small SRG will go deep into the peninsula to hit a more important, maybe even strategic facility in #Crimea and commit a more global sabotage. Perhaps even taking hostages from important people. After that, the group will leave by another route and through another section of the coast, where in the specified coordinates and at the specified time they will be waiting for the evacuation group.

▪️ 3) One of the ways described above to organise a passage of fighters to the territory of #Crimea and enter the coastal city. Try to take some areas of this city under control and gain a foothold there. They will not have a chance to survive in the end, but for a loud picture in the media will be very good.

📌 Simultaneously with any of these options, the enemy will conduct a massive attack with strike drones, unmanned boats, cruise missiles, etc.

📜 Archangel of Special Forces Z🇷🇺; 29 Sep 2023, 18:44 👼

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦📜 The Times Article on Zelensky's Policy is difficult to understand in its Entirety⚡️

🇺🇸 without taking into account the fact that the entire Western agenda of the past week revolved around another article in The Economist by the commander-in-chief of the AFU, Zaluzhny, concerning the reasons for the failed counter-offensive, the problems in the troops and the measures needed to turn the tide on the front. At the centre of the analysis of Zaluzhny on the enemy forces are the following key theses:

▪️ A positional stalemate has been reached on the frontline. Neither side is ready to move to serious offensive operations. The situation is reminiscent in its acuteness of the Battle of Verdun in 1916.
▪️ To overcome the positional deadlock, a sharp scientific and technological leap is needed, which is impossible without Western supplies of the necessary volume of offensive weapons.
▪️ He criticised the reduction of arms supplies by the West, giving a direct hint at the interest of foreign partners in prolonging the armed confrontation between #Russia and #Ukraine.

❗️An assessment of the scale of anxiety evident in Zaluzhny’s article cannot be understood without taking into account the 12 demands of the Republican Party for President Biden voiced this week.

1️⃣ Biden and Zelensky must provide the U.S. Congress with a realistic strategy for winning #Ukraine. Estimates do not have to be exact, but we must understand the ultimate goals and exit criteria.
2️⃣ What is the approximate cost associated with implementing a victory strategy? Selective disclosure and incremental requests averaging $12 billion per month are unaffordable, unsustainable, and unacceptable.
✅ Biden and Secretary of Defence Austin should:
3️⃣ Clearly inform Americans about the status of the war in #Ukraine. This includes informing them of #Ukraine's progress, the reasons that led to the current stalemate, and the status of the "spring counteroffensive."
4️⃣ Explain why future US investment is necessary, what specific weapons are being sent, and how those specific weapons will help win the war, not just continue it.
5️⃣ Provide Congress with a list of weapons that have not been sent to #Ukraine but could effectively change the current situation.
6️⃣ Explain what happens if US investment in #Ukraine stops. What major military exports are needed?
7️⃣ Provide a clear explanation of why the resources requested are the right ones for victory.
8️⃣ The Treasury and Commerce Departments should report to Congress on the level of implementation and compliance with already approved sanctions against #Russia.
9️⃣ The US and all NATO members should adopt a full-fledged sanctions policy against #Russia that includes oil, grain, and rare earth minerals.
🔟 Provide an answer as to whether the US and #Ukraine's goals on #Crimea are aligned? Is #Ukraine's desire to regain #Crimea realistic?
1️⃣1️⃣ Biden and Zelensky should continue to provide Congress with a full accounting of the weapons systems that have been shipped and used to date by #Ukraine.
1️⃣2️⃣ Biden must provide commitments and evidence that his administration is not compromising the schedule and cost of critical domestic weapon programmes or the commitments we have made to Taiwan's and Israel's FMF programmes.

📌 A key message of the Republican appeal also contains the following thesis: "We cannot cannibalise potential at the expense of our own capabilities, or our other strategic partnerships, to meet commitments to #Ukraine. The administration's current slow policy has only made #Ukraine's situation worse, and Congress must play a role in deciding what additional options should be offered to #Ukraine."

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸 Ten Years ago, from the Rostrum of the Verkhovna Rada, I accused the #US Embassy of preparing a Coup d'état in #Ukraine - 🇬🇧 Subtitled⚡️

🇺🇦 The nationalists were shouting so loudly that I couldn't hear myself. Thank God the microphone is more sensitive than my ears, otherwise it would have been impossible to make out what I was saying.

💬 My speech lasted as long as the time allotted for the speech of the head of the faction. From a formal point of view, I, as deputy leader of the faction, had the right to do so. But in fact, my speech was not coordinated with the leadership of the faction and the party and was my personal initiative.

🔹 When I left the rostrum, an indignant Anna German rushed towards me, saying that I had no authority to accuse the #US. I was rescued by Mikhail Chechetov, who overtook German, rushed towards me, hugged me, and pushed German away: "Finally, at least someone called things by their proper names!"

🔹After the speech, I left for #Dnepropetrovsk and returned to #Kiev at the request of the party leaders at the height of the #Maidan.

📌 PS: After the speech, I approached a good friend of mine, a journalist who was responsible for news stories from #Ukraine for Russian federal channels. I asked him to put this video on #Russia. I said that it would be good for #Russia to know about what would happen in #Ukraine in advance.

📜 Oleg Tsarov; 20 Nov 2023, 07:45

⚠️ Thanks to a feedback I could exchange the Video with a subtitles version.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🏴 Is #Ukraine or #IS guilty of the #Crocus Massacre⚡️

🔸There will almost certainly not be a universally accepted end result. To the facts:

1️⃣ The perpetrators were caught in the #Bryasnk region and most likely wanted to flee to #Ukraine.
2️⃣ The #US knew about attack planning and issued a travel warning for their citizens.
3️⃣ #IS terrorist involvement was almost immediately claimed by Western entities without providing any evidence, especially without #IS source.
4️⃣ The #IS Terror Organisation itself only commented in detail yesterday and took responsibility. (Video👆)
5️⃣ #The investigation is ongoing!

❗️According to the current state of knowledge, prima facie evidence (at first sight) suggests that #Ukraine is involved. IS involvement has not been proven.

🔹The belated admission by IS doesn't change anything, because IS is also known for being free riders.

🔹Even if #IS were involved, that wouldn't rule out #Ukraine or the #US or #UK being involved.
🟡#IS is pragmatic and its main enemy is #Russia. Let us remember that #IS only began to falter in #Syria when #Russia intervened and destroyed its economic structure and stopped oil sales to #Turkey by bombing oil convoys.
🟡The #US are also pragmatic and changes partners as it sees fit. Osama Bin Laden and Sadam Hussein are just 2 examples. During the Battle of Mosul in #Iraq, the #US allowed #IS troops to withdraw towards #Syria without bombing them. A short time later, Palmyra was retaken by #IS.
🟡#IS militants were treated in #Israel and some are fighting on the side of #Ukraine.

❗️Thus, there are no fixed fronts. Cooperation between #Ukraine and #IS and also the participation of the #US or #UK are conceivable.

⚖️ In Roman law, Ukraine must shatter the proof prima facie. The statements available so far are not suitable for this.

🔸These are the core facts. I warn against getting bogged down in details. For example, it is completely irrelevant whether the perpetrators behaved like #IS militants or not, since #IS now recruits anyone who is halfway suitable. The fact that the #US knew about planned terrorist attacks is a fact that is completely unsuitable for drawing any further conclusions.

📌 In conclusion, the further investigations have to be awaited and #Ukraine is forced to act in the current situation because "prima facie" is against it.

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