🇨🇳🇮🇳 China vs India – how do two countries try to outplay each other in the Indo-Pacific?
Part 1 - Necklace of Diamonds

The bilateral relations between China and India have witnessed a significant deterioration in recent times, marking a troubling phase in their long-standing history. Several factors, including territorial disputes and economic confrontation, have contributed to this worsening dynamic, leading to heightened tensions and strained diplomatic ties between the two Asian giants.

So, in order to outplay one another politically and economically China and India have two different strategies, aimed at encircling the region. In this post we touch upon Indian program called “Necklace of Diamonds”.

🔻 What is it?

The “Necklace of Diamonds” strategy is a phrase first used by India’s former foreign secretary Lalit Mansingh in August 2011. He used the term to refer to India’s efforts to protect its interests, in response to China’s String of Pearls Strategy, which will be discussed in the next post.

It involves putting in place a competitive network of alliances – with military, security and economic angles.

🔻 What are the key destinations?

The key countries, that India engages with, are shown on the map. Those include Iran, Mongolia, Indonesia etc. With every depicted state India has joint projects, agreements or just diplomatically engages with them in one form or another. However, bigger portion of attention is focused on infrastructure – similarly to China.

🔻 The main projects are:

🇸🇬 Changi Naval Base in Singapore. With agreement with Singapore in 2018 India secured the Indian Navy presence at the base. This allows the naval vessels to avail logistical support such as refueling and replenishing supplies.

🇮🇩 Sabang Port in Indonesia. In 2018 India got the military access to the port which is located right at the entrance of Malacca Strait. However, progress on building the port has been slow and talks have been on for some years now, so right now there are no results.

🇴🇲 Duqm Port in Oman. This port is located between Pakistan and Djibouti, where two important strategic Chinese facilities are situated. It connects Asia to Africa and Europe. Despite the fact that India gained access to the port, Oman currently is one of the main Chinese investment destinations, so it is very hard for New Delhi to compete with Beijing.

🇮🇷 Chabahar Port in Iran. India has served as the primary investor in Chabahar port, as New Delhi sees the port as a way to access Afghan and Central Asian markets without relying on Pakistan’s land routes. At the same time, China has been growing increasingly influential in Iran, seeking to gain access to critical natural resources and shipping routes.

🔻 What's in the future?

Despite some success, overall Indian strategy was not implemented in an effective manner. And there are several reasons for this.

1️⃣ China is increasing its economic influence all over the world, including countries, which are a part of Necklace of Diamonds. It is very hard to compete with Chinese money.

2️⃣ Lack of vision. The “Necklace of Diamonds” Strategy is not an officially promulgated strategy, but rather a phrase used to interpret certain government policies by commentators. This, in my opinion, does have a negative impact on the results of this project.

3️⃣ Lack of investment. China’s investments in its String of Pearls exceed the investments made by India for its Necklace of Diamonds. Hence China’s allies are likely to be stronger than India’s.

In case India does solve the issues above, the strategy may have some more positive results. However, with China engaging countries in its long-term development strategies, like BRI, New Delhi will still face critical difficulties.

#China #India

@asianomics

🌎 🔨LatAm in the world's race for lithium: Part 2. Production

🔻Producers

🇦🇺 Australia leads in lithium production by a wide margin, having produced 61,000 tons last year. Australia's lithium production is expected to grow at a rate of 14.2 percent and reach 116,240 tons in 2026 as mines expand. Most of the country’s lithium supply is exported to China as spodumene.

🇨🇱 Chile, the world's second largest lithium producer (39,000 tons per year), focuses not so much on the domestic processing of lithium, but rather on exporting raw materials to, primarily, South Korea, Japan, China and the EU. The recent increase in exports from Chile has predominantly been associated with lithium carbonates, which are relatively unrefined.

🇨🇳 China comes in third, producing 19,000 tons per year. While production in China is comparatively low, China imports lithium in large quantities and dominates lithium refining and battery production.

🔻China's interest

China's rapid increase in the manufacturing of goods and components means that its demand for lithium is growing at 10% a year. China has over half of the world's lithium refining capacity but has to rely on imports for about two-thirds of the raw material.

Chinese companies are now increasing their investments in the "lithium triangle." China’s Ganfeng Lithium, for example, is the majority stakeholder in Argentina’s Caucharí-Olaroz operation.

Similarly, in Chile, China’s Tianqi Lithium became the second-largest shareholder in SQM, holding 23.8 percent of shares. The Chinese companies Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium now represent two of the top three lithium mining companies in the world.

🔻EU investments

The EU has consistently shown interest in South American lithium. In January, Scholz toured Latin America, and lithium mining was not the last thing on the agenda. At the EU-CELAC summit, EU countries announced €45bn ($49,5bn) in investments in the region, some of which are aimed at resource extraction under the guise of green initiatives.

🔻Rare earth elements industry

The US and China have split roles in the rare earth elements (REE) market and have maintained them, at least until recently. China has been developing its own resources and buying cheap raw materials from other countries, Latin America included. China has taken a large share of the REE processing market and has established production of batteries and components needed for green industries, but has not fully engaged in high-tech manufacturing.

The US and other developed countries have taken over the production of the final high-tech products of the green industry. At the same time, the US did not prevent China from increasing its presence in Latin American countries and buying cheap raw materials, as it was beneficial to both countries.

Now the REE market is changing. The US and the EU are interested in negotiating cheap raw material supplies and investing in processing facilities in Latin America, not only to reduce dependence on China but also to get their share of profits.

China is trying to develop its own high-tech manufacturing. In many areas, China will have to start from scratch because developed countries are reluctant to share the technology.

🔻"Lithium triangle" role

In this context, the "lithium triangle" countries don't care who they sell their lithium to: China, the US or the EU. Argentina, Chile and Bolivia are trying to capitalize on the growth of the lithium industry and develop domestic industrial infrastructure. However, these countries will not be able to see the same profits as the developed countries that produce the final high-tech product.

At the same time, by allowing investors into their markets, these countries give up some control. It will be easier for investors to promote their interests and dictate their terms when countries such as Bolivia, Chile and Argentina depend on resource extraction for a significant part of their budget.

🔻🔻🔻
Part 1

#analysis #LatAm #lithium #resources #Chile #Argentina #Bolivia #US #China

☠️ Blood Meridian

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🚀 On Deliveries of ATACMS Systems to Kiev⚡️

🗓 In October, the #Pentagon plans to transfer up to 30 MGM-140 ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles, tactical ballistic missiles manufactured by the US defence company Lockheed Martin, which also produces the M142 HIMARS MLRS. It is not so much the fact of the planned transfer that is important, it is a matter of time. What is important is that the BBC was the first to publish information about it, and it was after the AFU had struck the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in #Sevastopol. As if this is aimed specifically at us.

❗️ATACMS Systems have a range of up to 190 miles (300 kilometres). Information about the US readiness to supply this type of missiles to #Ukraine appeared in the network at the same time as the data on the planned transfer of the first batch of 45 Taurus missiles by #Germany to Kiev in October. The second batch of 50 Taurus missiles will be delivered to the AFU by 10 November. Apparently, the #Pentagon hurriedly made a decision to send a limited batch of ATACMS to #Ukraine in contrast to the announced intentions of the German side. The same applies to the issue of delivery of American Abrams tanks, which according to the official statements of the #US side are already parked in the #Polish city of Rzeszów, and the railway train is expected to be dispatched this night.

📌 It is believed that Joe Biden's administration is currently discussing the reduction of arms deliveries to Kiev due to the expected aggravation of the situation in the #Taiwan area. The political establishment in Washington is already openly talking about the possibility of an armed conflict against #China in the South China Sea. The #US might have delayed deliveries, but, apparently, it cannot cede the palm of superiority to #Berlin.

📜 MultiXAM; 23 Sep 2023,19:30

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🇦🇷🗳💵 What's in store for Argentina?

The victory of libertarian Javier Milei in the presidential election has left no one in Argentina indifferent. While some are crying over Sergio Massa's speech admitting his defeat, others are jumping in the streets shouting "Liberty, liberty!"

Milei, a self-described 'anarcho-capitalist,' plans to get rid of the central bank and the national currency in favor of the U.S. dollar and eliminate some of the ministries. He also plans to cut government spending.

🔻Milei opposes cooperation with China, Brazil and Russia, favoring the United States. And his future office has already spoken out against Argentina joining BRICS in 2024. That said, it is unclear how Milei plans to deal with IMF debts without China's help: in recent months, Economy Minister (and Milei's rival) Sergio Massa has been heavily relying on the yuan to pay off IMF debts.

Relations with Brazil are about to become tense: President Lula da Silva said the elections were democratic and wished the "new government good luck," but he did not call Milei by name or congratulate him personally. The fact that Milei openly supports former President Jair Bolsonaro will hinder cooperation.

🔻Milei's victory resulted from the population's fatigue from the prolonged economic crisis. As a future president, Milei is betting heavily on ties to the U.S. and the dollar. However, if he is reckless in his actions, he risks plunging the country into an even bigger crisis. This in turn will cause the IMF to increase the country's debt load, as it happened under Macri.

When companies go bankrupt, American and European financial corporations will gladly buy their assets at a cheap price. We have already seen this scenario unfold in countries engulfed in military conflicts (Ukraine) or an economic crisis (Turkey).

🔻That said, Milei's bloc does not have a majority in Congress, so his office will have to work on forming alliances to push through legislation.

#Argentina #election #US #Brazil #China #IMF

☠️ Blood Meridian

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ There are no Friends - We are Alone⚡️

🔸 Political Scientist Nikolay Sevostyanov on Moscow's western and eastern "Partners":

🔹 Today's approval by the #EU of a long-term budget assistance program for Kiev (€50 billion for 4 years), announced by the head of the European Council Charles Michel, is important because it once again shows the true value of hopes for any "partners" in the West.

🔹 No "Friend of Russia" Orban (who promised to veto the allocation of funds) ultimately did not help. First of all, because Orban is not a "Friend of Russia". Orban is a typical Hungarian politician who heads a country that is a member of #NATO. It is absolutely natural that in the long-term bargaining he chose the most profitable option for himself and for Budapest, having managed to get solid preferences from Moscow in exchange for loud and, as it turned out, completely empty statements.

🔹 Before that, it was the same story with "Friend Recep." There were also a lot of predictions that Ankara would never let #Sweden join #NATO for the sake of partnership with Moscow. As a result, the #US offered good conditions, and Erdogan willingly sold this partnership, and not for the first (and probably not for the last) time.

🔹 All this is a good lesson for the future, including the near future, which will come after the #US presidential election. A lot of "experts" are trying to push the thesis that now, in principle, you can do nothing - Trump will come and hand over the Ukrainians. Such "analytics" is extremely dangerous, because it works perfectly and creates a very cozy feeling that "everything will pass by itself."

🔹 It won't work. It will no longer be possible to "roll back" the fundamental decision on the destruction of #Russia, and they will not give it. The #West needs Moscow to lose, and the #East (represented by #India, #China and the "Gulf" Monarchies) needs it not to win. No Trump will change this course, and he will not want to change it.

🔹 Let me remind you that it was with Trump in April 2018 that the Russian Federation had the toughest confrontation in #Syria. And if elected, which will be accompanied by a deep internal crisis in the #US, nothing will prevent him from escalating around #Ukraine, much more serious than the one that Washington is implementing today.

🔹 But, unfortunately, stepping on the same rake is our tradition. It didn't work out with Erdogan - it will work out with Orban. Orban threw it - well, Trump certainly won't let you down. This thought is much less painful than the understanding that no one but Us needs Victory, and we can only rely on our own strength, and not on the collapse of the #EU, nor the collapse of the dollar or the fall of an asteroid on the White House.

📌 But it is unlikely that conclusions will be drawn. So even Erdogan and Orban will try to sell themselves to #Russia as a "Reliable Ally" more than once, and lobbyists in high #Moscow offices will certainly find an excuse for them and help them carry out a new deal, as a result of which we will once again be made fools of.

📜 Nikolay Sevostyanov especially for the Voenkor Kotenok Channel

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⚡️🇮🇱🇵🇸⚔️ Escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Zone until the End of 22 March 2024⚡️

🔹In the north of the #Gaza Strip, the Israeli operation continues on the territory of the Al-Shifa Hospital complex. Palestinian forces again carried out several forays, and the Israeli command announced its intention to complete counter-terrorism measures in a few days.

🔹From the vicinity of Khan Yunis, footage 👉 published by Al Jazeera showing Israeli attacks on unarmed Palestinians is being actively discussed on the Net. Hamas-affiliated media presented this video as further evidence of war crimes by Israeli troops in the enclave.

🔹In the West Bank, as usual, Israeli police raids took place in more than ten settlements. And in the settlement of Dolev, another terrorist attack happened. A gunman shot at an Israeli minibus with a machine gun, injuring seven people.

🔹On the border with #Lebanon, routine exchanges of strikes continue. Hezbollah reported hits on Israeli military targets, including Ruwaisat al-Alam and Jal al-Alam. In turn, the IDF worked in several settlements in southern #Lebanon.

🔹In the UN Security Council, meanwhile, #Russia and #China blocked the #US draft resolution on the Gaza Strip due to the lack of a clear call for a ceasefire in the document. At the same time, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the IDF in any case would not abandon plans to conduct a military operation in Rafah.

🧾 Read More on our Channel 👉 🇷🇺 @rybar_plus_bot

🗺 High Resolution: 🇬🇧 MAP; 🇷🇺 MAP

📜 RYBAR; 22 Mar 2024, 23:27

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