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⚠️ At 13:30 GMT today, the US will release data on the state of its labor market. Forecasts suggest an increase of 180 thousand jobs last month, compared to 150 thousand in October.

📊 Last week, initial unemployment benefit applications in the US totaled 220 thousand, a slight increase from 219 thousand two weeks earlier.

📣 The Bank of Japan's head, Ueda, stated that the regulator is exploring options to normalize monetary policy and move away from negative interest rates. This led to a notable strengthening of the yen and a decline in the USD/JPY pair to 141.64.

🇯🇵 Japan's gross domestic product contracted by 0.7% in Q3, with an annual drop of 2.9%.

🇪🇺 The eurozone's gross domestic product saw a 0.1% decrease in Q3, while the annual economic performance remained stagnant. #EconomicIndicators #USDJPY #GDP #LaborMarket #FreshForex
🏛 Market Overview: Indices Show Rebound - Testing Levels...

🔙 Previous Trading Day: The indices demonstrated decent rebound attempts following a pullback on Wednesday's trading session, especially NQ showing relatively stronger dynamics. SPX made attempts at a local rebound, continuing to move near the crucial resistance at 4600. NQ showed solid rebound attempts, testing the boundary of the inclined channel and resistance at 16040.

🔆 Today: It is crucial for the indices to maintain positions above local support levels at 15700 for NQ and 4500 for SPX to prevent a rollback from current levels and ensure the possibility of continued growth if the nearest levels at 16040 for NQ and 4600 for SPX are breached.

🔎 Current Market Focus:

(1) The focus is currently shifting to Friday's US employment report.
(2) To gather information on the upcoming Fed meeting next week.

📊 Sectors:

Among cyclical sectors, XRT, XLY, and XLB led the rebound, while XLI, ITA, and XLE were weaker than others. Most growth sectors outperformed the market, with SOXX, XLC, IPO, and XLK showing the highest growth. Among defensive sectors, XLU and XLV experienced a slight pullback from local resistances, while XLP attempted to rebound from the trend.

💼 Stock News:

(=) CVX - Chevron faces new risks in Venezuela as Maduro threatens Guyana.
(+) BA - Boeing is close to securing an order for approximately 80 wide-body 787 Dreamliner aircraft from Thai Airways.
(+) AMZN - Amazon is testing a new unlimited grocery delivery service for Prime members.
(+) AVGO - Broadcom falls despite strong 2024 forecasts and Q4 results.
(+) SQ - Block launches a Bitcoin wallet that allows users to independently store their tokens on hardware.
(=) XOM - Exxon plans to respond to the Federal Trade Commission's second request for the $59 billion Pioneer deal as soon as possible.
(=) NKE - Nike's long-standing partnership with Tiger Woods may come to an end.
(+) LLY - Eli Lilly announces that its breast cancer drug Verzenio has received an expansion of labeling from the Canadian Ministry of Health.
(+) AMD - AMD's latest AI accelerator, Instinct MI300X, received mostly positive reactions on Wall Street.
(=) TTWO - According to BofA, Grand Theft Auto 6 from Rockstar may be delayed.

🌐 Intermarket Analysis:

Oil attempts a local rebound from support at 68.8 and the lower boundary of the descending channel. Yield is consolidating near the boundaries of the inclined channel and the 4.17% level. VIX continues to move in consolidation near the 13 level. Gold continues to move along the 50-MA and the boundaries of the local uptrend.

🗣 Market Discussions:

Here's what the market will be looking for in the Friday key job report.

Economists expect non-farm payrolls to increase by 190,000 last month compared to 150,000 in October. However, investors and policymakers expected the situation to slow down enough to at least allow the Fed to end this rate hike cycle. A report of stronger job market could undermine this confidence and darken the positive mood on Wall Street. There's also some risk of growth due to returning workers in the automotive industry who have announced a strike. Thus, it appears to be a resilient but slowing labor market. #MarketAnalysis #Indices #StockNews #EconomicIndicators
In the spotlight today: inflation.

A surge in volatility is expected at the beginning of the trading session, driven by the release of inflation data. The consensus anticipates a 4% year-on-year increase in the core indicator and a 0.3% month-on-month rise (October: +0.2% month-on-month). If the slowdown in consumer inflation persists, it will signal to the market that the Federal Reserve may transition to a more accommodative monetary policy in the second quarter of 2024. It's worth recalling that the previous easing in the Consumer Price Index growth in October sparked an active stock market rally.

Inflation data will be published a day before the conclusion of the last Federal Reserve meeting of the year, influencing the update of the regulator's macroeconomic forecasts. However, even if the statistics confirm the expected inflation slowdown, the Federal Reserve is likely to emphasize the need for further confirmation of trends indicating labor market cooling and inflation reduction for at least several months before considering a change in monetary policy. In this context, the Fed's decision is unlikely to catch investors off guard.

#Inflation #EconomicIndicators #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #MarketVolatility
Understanding the US Dollar Index (DXY)

Introduction

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is a real-time indicator reflecting the dynamics of the US dollar against a basket of other currencies. Widely used, it serves as a common way to track the value of the world's most traded currency and stands as a key market in itself.

What is DXY?
DXY, symbolizing the US Dollar Index, tracks the price of the US dollar against six foreign currencies, aiming to represent its value in global markets. This index rises when the dollar strengthens against other currencies and falls when the dollar weakens.

The index operates by comparing the US dollar's price with six other currencies: the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swedish krona, and Swiss franc. These currencies were selected when the index was formed in 1974.

How to Calculate the US Dollar Index
To calculate the US Dollar Index, each currency's rate in the basket is multiplied by its weight. Weights ensure that significant currencies, like the euro, have a greater impact on the DXY price compared to less significant currencies, such as the krona.

Today, the following weights are used for calculating the index:

- EUR/USD - 57%
- USD/JPY - 13.6%
- GBP/USD - 11.9%
- USD/CAD - 9.1%
- USD/SEK - 4.2%
- USD/CHF - 3.6%

As seen, the euro-dollar pair is undoubtedly the most influential in the DXY calculation, reflecting its replacement of several European currencies and the EU's status as a key US trading partner.

History of the US Dollar Index
DXY was introduced in 1973 after the end of the Bretton Woods Agreement. It provided markets with the opportunity to determine the value of the world's reserve currency following the end of the gold standard. The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) has managed the index since 1985.

Historically, DXY has traded in a broad range and, unlike other indices, has not been consistently bullish. In March 1985, it reached a historical high of 164.63, while its lowest point occurred in April 2008 during the financial crisis, reaching 70.63.

Factors Influencing Price Movements of the US Dollar Index
Macroeconomic events, GDP data, the economic condition of each country, and the monetary and fiscal policies of central banks impact DXY prices. Safe-haven demand also influences the index: during global economic crises, traders often view the US dollar as a safe asset, leading to optimism in the index. Conversely, if risk sentiment prevails, and investors sell the dollar for riskier assets, the index may decline.

Why the US Dollar Index Matters for Traders
The US Dollar Index is crucial for traders as both a market and an indicator of the US dollar's relative strength worldwide. It can be used in technical analysis to confirm trends in commodity prices, currency pairs involving the US dollar, stocks, and indices.

As the dollar's value rises, the prices of commodities such as gold (at least nominally) tend to decrease, and vice versa. For currency pairs where the dollar is the base currency, like USD/JPY, they usually move in the same direction as the index. However, for quote currency pairs like EUR/USD, they move inversely. The relationship becomes more complex for stocks and indices, influenced by factors like US exporters' competitiveness and the purchasing power of the dollar.

In conclusion, the US Dollar Index (DXY) serves as a relative measure of the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies. Created in 1973, it remains relevant and can be used as an indicator of the health of the US economy. #USDollarIndex #ForexTrading #FinanceAnalysis #CurrencyMarkets #EconomicIndicators #TradingStrategies #GlobalEconomy #DXYInsights #MarketTrends #FinancialMarkets #InvestingTips #TechnicalAnalysis #CommodityPrices #CurrencyPairs #MarketIndicators #TradingSignals #USDEconomy #SafeHavenAssets #MarketAnalysis #InvestmentStrategies #FinancialNews
📊 The Impact of Eurozone CPI YoY on Various Financial Areas:

1. Currency Markets: The inflation level can influence the euro exchange rate. High inflation may prompt central banks to raise interest rates to curb inflationary pressures, making the euro more attractive to investors and increasing its value in the currency market. #CurrencyMarkets #Inflation #Euro

2. Bonds: Inflation affects the bond market. An increase in inflation can reduce the real value of bonds, especially those with fixed coupons. Investors typically demand higher bond yields to offset losses from inflation. #Bonds #InflationImpact #FinancialMarkets

3. Stocks: The impact of inflation on stock markets can be twofold. High inflation can negatively affect company profits and reduce their real value, impacting stock prices. However, under moderate inflation, rising prices for goods and services may contribute to increased company profits and, consequently, stock prices. #Stocks #InflationEffect #EquityMarkets

4. Gold and Commodities: Investors often view precious metals and commodities as protective assets against inflation. High inflation levels may boost demand for such assets, including gold. #Gold #Commodities #InflationHedge

5. Central Banks: Eurozone central banks may use CPI data to shape their monetary policies. High inflation levels may lead to interest rate hikes, while low inflation may prompt rate cuts. #CentralBanks #MonetaryPolicy #InflationData

It's important to note that the impact of the Consumer Price Index depends on the economic context, the overall direction of central bank policies, and other factors. Market reactions may vary over different time periods and depending on investor expectations. Stay informed to navigate the dynamic financial landscape. 📈💹 #FinancialAnalysis #MarketImpact #EconomicIndicators
Title: Understanding U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ) Growth and Its Impact on Economic Metrics and Financial Instruments

Introduction:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a crucial economic indicator that reflects the overall health and performance of a country's economy. The Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ) growth rate of U.S. GDP provides valuable insights into the nation's economic trajectory. This article aims to delve into the significance of this metric and explore its influence on various economic measures and financial instruments.

What is U.S. GDP QoQ?
The GDP QoQ growth rate measures the percentage change in the value of goods and services produced in the United States over a specific quarter compared to the previous quarter. It serves as a key indicator of economic expansion or contraction during short-term periods.

Impact on Economic Metrics:

1. Economic Growth: A positive GDP QoQ indicates economic expansion, signaling a healthy and growing economy. Conversely, a negative growth rate suggests a contraction, possibly leading to economic challenges.

2. Employment Levels: GDP growth is closely tied to job creation. A thriving economy with positive QoQ GDP growth often leads to increased employment opportunities, contributing to lower unemployment rates.

3. Consumer Confidence: GDP QoQ figures can influence consumer confidence. Positive growth often boosts consumer optimism, leading to increased spending and investment, while negative growth may have the opposite effect.

4. Inflationary Pressures: The relationship between GDP growth and inflation is intricate. Strong GDP growth may lead to increased demand, potentially triggering inflationary pressures. On the contrary, negative growth may contribute to deflationary concerns.

Impact on Financial Instruments:

1. Equity Markets: U.S. GDP QoQ growth has a substantial impact on equity markets. Positive growth is generally associated with higher corporate profits, positively influencing stock prices. Conversely, negative growth may lead to market declines.

2. Fixed Income Securities: Bond markets are sensitive to economic conditions. In a growing economy, interest rates may rise, affecting the prices of fixed-income securities. Conversely, economic contraction may lead to lower interest rates and increased bond prices.

3. Currency Markets: GDP QoQ figures influence the value of the U.S. dollar in currency markets. Positive growth may strengthen the dollar, while negative growth could lead to a weaker currency.

4. Commodities: Economic growth affects the demand for commodities. A growing economy typically results in increased demand for raw materials, impacting commodity prices. Conversely, economic contraction may lead to lower demand and reduced commodity prices.

Conclusion:
Monitoring U.S. GDP QoQ growth is essential for understanding the dynamics of the nation's economy. Investors, policymakers, and analysts closely watch these figures to make informed decisions. The impact of GDP growth extends beyond economic metrics, influencing a wide array of financial instruments and markets. As a fundamental indicator, U.S. GDP QoQ growth plays a pivotal role in shaping the overall economic narrative.

#USGDP #EconomicIndicators #FinancialMarkets #GDPQoQ #EconomicAnalysis #Investing #FinanceInsights
Key Economic Indicators and Potential Market Impact Today

1. Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) (YoY) (December):
*Actual: 2.9%, Forecast: 3.0%, Previous: 2.4%*

Data on the Eurozone Consumer Price Index reflects the year-on-year inflation for December. If inflation figures fall below expectations, concerns about economic growth may arise, impacting the Euro (EUR) and potentially affecting European stocks.

*Potential Instruments: EUR/USD, Eurozone Stock Indices*

2. US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) and Nonfarm Payrolls (December):
*Average Hourly Earnings: 0.3%, Forecast: 0.4%*
*Nonfarm Payrolls: 170K, Forecast: 199K*

Indicators of the US labor market, including wage growth and nonfarm payrolls, can influence the US Dollar (USD) and global investment activity. Figures surpassing expectations may strengthen the dollar and instill confidence in the US economy.

*Potential Instruments: USD pairs (e.g., EUR/USD, USD/JPY), US Stock Indices*

3. US Unemployment Rate (December):
*Actual: 3.8%, Forecast: 3.7%*

Changes in the unemployment rate provide insights into the overall state of the US labor market. A lower unemployment rate is generally seen as a positive signal for the economy and may support the US Dollar.

*Potential Instruments: USD pairs, US Stock Indices*

4. US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Prices (December):
*ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: 52.6, Forecast: 52.7*
*ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices: 58.3*

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI reflects the economic condition of the US services sector. A value above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 suggests contraction. Figures exceeding expectations may support the US Dollar, while lower values could have the opposite effect.

*Potential Instruments: USD pairs, US Dollar Index (DXY), US Treasury Securities*

#Forex #EconomicIndicators #TradingNews #USD #EUR #StockMarket #Investing #Inflation #Employment #PMI #FinancialMarkets