Scorpi18 | Market Insights
6.28K subscribers
5.4K photos
59 videos
24 files
3.58K links
Insights and analysis of the global financial market by investment advisor Sergio Shalamov.

Note: This is not an investment advice.

Chat for investors: https://t.me/+lLbjdcohKhc5MDBi

Contact: @invoyager

Buy ads: https://telega.io/c/scorpi18
Download Telegram
βš οΈπŸ‡¬πŸ‡§#uk #business #vc #banks #exposure #warning
at least 200 firms employing tens of thousands of people will find they can't pay their staff or suppliers due to SVB (#SIVB) collapse. Between 30% and 40% or UK start-ups employing up to 50,000 people could be affected by the collapse β€” BBC
⚠️#inflation #uk #macro
UK - Consumer inflation CPI (% y/y)

recent data:
m/m = +1.1% (est. +0.6% /ex. -0.6%)
y/y = +10.4% (est. +9.9% /ex. +10.1%)

Core CPI = +6.2% y/y (set. +5.7% /ex. +5.8%)
βš οΈπŸ‡¬πŸ‡§#economy #uk #macro
UK - GDP (% y/y)

recent data (4Q 2022):
q/q = +0.1% (ex. -0.2%)
y/y = +0.6% (ex. +1.9%)
πŸ”₯πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§#inflation #uk #macro
UK inflation remains above 10% as food prices stay high:

m/m = +0.8% (est. +0.5% / ex. -1.1%)
y/y = +10.1% (est. +9.8% /ex. +10.4%)

core CPI = +6.2% y/y (est. +6% / ex. +6.2%)

⚠️#monetarypolicy
βš οΈπŸ‡¬πŸ‡§#banks #uk #deposit #saving
British depositors are actively withdrawing their money from banks β€” BBG
πŸ”₯πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§#inflation #uk #macro
UK inflation falls by less than expected.

it will add to pressure on the Bank of England to keep raising interest rates through the summer #monetarypolicy

the peak interest rate is forecasted to range from 5.25% to 5.5%
βš οΈπŸ‡¬πŸ‡§#realestate #uk #macro
UK - The price of residential real estate continues to decline, with economists predicting that the downturn has further to run β€” BBG
βš οΈπŸ‡¬πŸ‡§#realestate #uk
UK house prices registered the first annual contraction in more than a decade β€” FT
🌎#realestate #uk #office
FT: investors are actively investing in the redevelopment of underutilized office buildings into hotels, apartments, or warehouses as landlords try to adapt to hybrid working

old office buildings are being sold at the price of the land they occupy #prices
πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§#inflation #uk #macro
UK - Consumer inflation CPI (% y/y)
🌎#markets #world #flow
weekly financial flows - BofA -EPFR (week through June. 21):

WORLD STOCKS = -$5B #stocks

TECH STOCKS = -$2B = highest weekly outflow in 10 weeks #tech

FIN STOCKS = +$1B = highest weekly inflow in 10 weeks #banks

WORLD BONDS = +$5.4B #bonds

WORLD CASH = -$13.9B #cash

GOLD = -$1B #gold

UK STOCKS = outflows persist for 24 consecutive weeks #uk

INVESTMENT-GRAD BONDS = 12 consecutive weeks of outflows = the longest streak since October 2021 #ig

BofA: BofA Bull & Bear Indicator signals worsening sentiment in risk assets.
βš οΈπŸ‡¬πŸ‡§#realestate #uk #macro
FT: the biggest fall in UK house prices since 2009
πŸ”₯πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§#inflation #uk #macro
Britain’s inflation rate falls to lowest in more than a year

Bank of England's peak interest rate forecast: < 6% #monetarypolicy
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡¬πŸ‡§#realestate #uk #us
CoStar: demand for office spaces in UK and US = 20-year low

❗️#CIO #ONL
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¬πŸ‡§#inflation #us #europe #uk #macro
πŸ‡¬πŸ‡§#stocks #uk #bonds #cash #strategy
If you had invested Β£100 in UK stocks in 1899 and reinvested all the income, you would now have nearly Β£55,000 in real terms. In comparison, if you had invested in UK government bonds (Gilts), you would have nearly Β£550, and if you had invested in the money market (T-Bills), you would have nearly Β£300.