🌕#gold #monetarypolicy #macro #history
historically, gold experiences a significant increase when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle.

#BTC perhaps this time, Bitcoin will exert its influence ...
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many experts warn that historically, U.S. stocks experience significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle.

🌕#gold
Crescat notes that volatility of call options on gold has has fallen to levels last seen in 2019. The last time volatility was at these levels, gold experienced a 75% rally in the subsequent years.

🌕#gold #stocks
mining stocks are significantly trailing gold prices = this is a very rare occurrence, happening only a few times in the last 40 years.
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If 2024 turns out to be the year of gold, investing in gold mining stocks may yield substantial profits (chart)

🌕#gold #macro
Bloomberg Intelligence: over the past 3.5 years, central bank gold purchases have far exceeded the 14-year average.

World Gold Counci: gold demand to hit record with central-bank buying

Citi: gold prices could soar to $3,000 within the next 11 to 17 months

🌕#gold #macro #history
BofA: the world's central banks are buying gold at a record pace.

🌕#gold #stocks #macro
gold mining stocks / gold ratio = historical low

either gold prices will drop or gold mining stocks will rise.
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WSJ: old miners are enjoying unrealistic profits amid record gold prices.

🌕🇺🇸#farmland #us #food #gold
over the past 30 years, farmland has boasted an average annual return of 10.52%, dwarfing gold's 5.67%.

#inflation farmland also acts as a potent hedge against inflation, with its value and the price of agricultural products typically rising in tandem with the cost of living.
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FT: investors plough record amounts into US farmland

🛢🌕#oil #gold #macro
Crescat: even by historical standards, oil is very cheap when priced in gold

🛢🌕#oil #forecast #gold #correlation
McClellan: gold and oil have historically shown a strong positive correlation, with oil lagging gold by 19.8 months. Current conditions suggest an imminent bottom in the oil market.

🌕🪙#gold #silver
Gold-Silver ratio = below historical averages = bullish for silver

yet in relative terms, silver is still cheap. It currently takes about 80 ounces of silver to buy 1 ounce of gold, compared with the 20-year average of 68.

🌕#gold #history #monetarypolicy #гы
Incrementum has observed a historical correlation between the Fed's rate movements and gold prices. If history repeats itself, the best time for gold in this cycle is still ahead. Historically, gold rises sharply when the Fed ends its rate-hike cycle and continues to rise as rates are cut.

🌕#gold #hedge #inflation #history
Goldman: gold does not provide long-term protection against inflation.

historically, gold outperforms inflation only about 50% of the time over a 19-year window.

#stocks US equities are a better long-term inflation hedge than gold.

🌕#gold
Bespoke: speculators have increased their net long positions in gold futures to a 38-year high.

🌕#gold
BBG: central banks globally have 'pushed up' the price of gold by 25% above its fair value through vigorous purchases. Significant purchases are distorting the long-term price relationships between the precious metal, real interest rates, and the dollar.

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #gold #macro
Crescat: the Dow Jones Index, in terms of gold, is consolidating near the historically "overbought" zone.

🌕#gold #stocks
Crescat: US gold miners stocks continue to lag behind the price of gold.

🌕#gold #monetarypolicy #history
historically, gold has become more attractive during periods of Fed rate cuts.

🛢#oil #macro #gold
oil, in gold terms, is at a historic low.

🌕#gold #monetarypolicy #history
historically, gold rises over 15% on average within 24 months of the first Fed rate cut.
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gold becomes more attractive during periods of Fed rate cuts (chart).