Scorpi18 | Market Insights
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Insights and analysis of the global financial market by investment advisor Sergio Shalamov.

Note: This is not an investment advice.

Chat for investors: https://t.me/+lLbjdcohKhc5MDBi

Contact: @invoyager

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βœ΄οΈπŸŒ•#BTC #gold #etf #crypto #analogy
another analogy:

Gold ETF (2004) vs. Bitcoin ETF (present days)

gold has surged more than 6X since the launch of its initial ETF, while Bitcoin is projected to reach $500,000 by the end of 2025.
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earlier: based on the history of gold ETP launches, Standard Chartered sees significant potential for the price of bitcoin
πŸŒ•#gold #monetarypolicy #macro #history
historically, gold experiences a significant increase when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle.

#BTC perhaps this time, Bitcoin will exert its influence ...
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many experts warn that historically, U.S. stocks experience significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle.
πŸ’₯#BTC Bitcoin < 39 000
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Arthur Hayes anticipates a Bitcoin correction of 20-30% from any level it attains by early March.

In November 2023, JPMorgan suggested that the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs could trigger a "sell the news" event, potentially leading to a correction in Bitcoin
✴️#BTC #sentiment #poll #crypto
most of the 2,000 surveyed individual investors from the USA, Europe, and UK anticipate Bitcoin falling below $20,000 by the end of 2024 β€” Deutsche Bank
✴#BTC #liquidity #macro #history
the changes in the growth rate of the global money supply (M2) and the price changes of Bitcoin.

the growth of the money supply = the rise of the Bitcoin price and other risky assets (S&P 500 hits records)
✴️#BTC #crypto
Bitcoin' bull market is still in its early stages according to the MVRV metric
πŸ’₯🌎#liquidity #markets #world #forecast #macro
FT: global liquidity is expected to increase in 2024 as central banks around the world continue to ease monetary policy

#stocks the growth of global liquidity ultimately leads to significant increase in prices of risky assets, albeit not necessarily immediately

#BTC Bitcoin price is highly correlated with changes in global liquidity (chart)
✴️#BTC #crypto #markets #liquidity #macro
global M2 liquidity vs. Bitcoin
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many expect the Fed to return to active money printing soon.

the growth of the money supply = the rise of the Bitcoin price and other risky assets (S&P 500 hits records) (chart)

global liquidity is expected to increase in 2024 (chart)
✴️#BTC
Bitcoin continues to rise
β—οΈβœ΄οΈ#BTC #crypto #hashrate
CryptoQuant:the price of Bitcoin has recovered to the level of 2021, while the Bitcoin mining difficulty (hashrate) has tripled over the same period.
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historically, hashrate growth has been a leading indicator of bitcoin price growth (chart)

Matrixport has released a new report stating that the bitcoin target of $63,000 in March 2024 is achievable. Factors: Bitcoin spot ETFs, the upcoming halving, expectations of the Fed rate cuts, and the US presidential election.
πŸ’₯#BTC Bitcoin > 60 000
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earlier: Matrixport has released a new report stating that the bitcoin target of $63,000 in March 2024 is achievable.
✴️#BTC #crypto #history
here's how much bitcoin has grown since its inception
βœ΄οΈπŸŒ•#BTC #gold #mining #costprice
JP Morgan: Bitcoin < Bitcoin mining cost = Bullish signal

#opinion Bitcoin is regarded as the new gold. If this assertion holds true, then the ratio of its price to its mining cost should be similar to that of gold, which is approximately 1.5
✴️#BTC #mining #costprice
JPMorgan: average cost of mining bitcoin has dropped to around $45,000 as inefficient miners leave the industry.

JPMorgan noted that the average cost of mining Bitcoin has typically served as the "floor" for Bitcoin’s price. Historically, the price of Bitcoin has traded below the cost of mining only for very short periods before going up again.
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#halving historically, after each halving β€” the event when the Bitcoin mining reward is cut in half every four years β€” the cost of mining Bitcoin approximately doubles.
✴️#BTC #implementation #macro #crypti
the adoption of Bitcoin is progressing faster than the adoption of the Internet in the 1990s.
✴️#BTC #crypto #mining #costprice
MacroMicro: the average cost of Bitcoin mining has risen to $77,000. According to CryptoQuant, this increase has prompted crypto miners to actively sell Bitcoin in June.
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Bitcoin price < Bitcoin mining cost = Bullish signal (chart)

earlier: JPMorgan: the average cost of Bitcoin mining is $45,000

Bernstein: bitcoin could hit $1M within 10 years
✴️#BTC #halving #crypto
Bitcoin: history of post-halving returns
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historically, Bitcoin prices have seen substantial growth post-halving (chart)

historically, after each halving β€” the event when the Bitcoin mining reward is cut in half every four years β€” the cost of mining Bitcoin approximately doubles.
✴️#BTC #crypto
CryptoQuant: for long-term Bitcoin holders, the breakeven level is significantly lower than the current price. Bitcoin could drop another 40% without affecting these holders before the upward trend resumes, as it did in 2019 and 2015.