Scorpi18 | Market Insights
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Insights and analysis of the global financial market by investment advisor Sergio Shalamov.

Note: This is not an investment advice.

Chat for investors: https://t.me/+lLbjdcohKhc5MDBi

Contact: @invoyager

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πŸ’₯πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #sentiment
BofA's Sell Side Indicator has stopped its decline = the number of Wall Street strategists with a bearish outlook on stocks has reached extremely high levels = S&P 500 potentially stands ready for a rebound
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#inflation #us #sentiment
US consumer inflation expectations continue to accelerate
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in the U.S., a new inflation wave, akin to the 1970s, might be looming - details

MarketDesk: Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s #monetarypolicy
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#bonds #us #sentiment
an increasing number of strategists anticipate further recovery in the U.S. bond market β€” BBG
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Bloomberg Intelligence: US treasuries are poised for double-digit returns in 2024

Barrons: time to buy US bonds

Bill Ackman, recently closed out his bets against US Treasuries

Billionaire Druckenmiller has 'massive' bullish bets on U.S. Treasuries.

Vanguard is bullish on longer-dated US Treasuries

earlier: global fund managers are very bullish on bonds
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#monetarypolicy #us #sentiment
Compound: market expectations for Fed rate
πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί#stocks #europe #sentiment
targets of major investment firms for the European STOXX 600 in 2024
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#monetarypolicy #us #sentiment
Fed signals rate cuts on the way.

Markets are pricing in a 1.5% Fed rate cut in 2024.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #sentiment
SP500 rally has just started to broaden out β€” BBG
β—οΈπŸŒŽ#cash #flow #markets
in 2023, money market fund inflows reached a record high β€” BofA/EPFR

#stocks record cash inflows show lots of investors missed out on the stock rally β€” BBG

a record $6T in cash on the sidelines will boost the stock market in 2024. The expectation is that once the Fed starts to lower interest rates, investors will shift money out of cash and into riskier assets. Any downturns in the stock market are expected to be short-lived β€” Fundstrat

#sentiment SP500 could reach 6,000 by 2025 due to the recovery of the U.S. economy and AI β€” Yardeni
🌎#copper #sentiment #renewable
Copper could skyrocket over 75% to record highs by 2025 - driven by mining supply disruptions and higher demand for the metal, fueled by the push for renewable energy

#shortage Goldman: copper deficit of over half a million tons in 2024

Bernstain: starting in 2027, the copper deficit will only increase.

Wood Mackenzie: decarbonization demands a lot of copper
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earlier: there isn’t enough copper in the world β€” and the shortage could last till 2030

earlier: copper production in Chile (million tons) = 18-year low

BNEF Metals Research: Chile and Peru are significantly boosting their investments in copper production

*Chile, Peru, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo account for 46% of global copper production
β€οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #sentiment
JPMorgan: сonsensus earnings expectations for SP500 companies over the next 12 months = ATH = rosy outlook
β€οΈπŸ‡¨πŸ‡³#stocks #china #sentiment
BlackRock, JPMorgan AM, and Goldman have become bullish on Chinese stocks ... they now find their valuations attractive.

#watchlist
✴️#BTC #sentiment #poll #crypto
most of the 2,000 surveyed individual investors from the USA, Europe, and UK anticipate Bitcoin falling below $20,000 by the end of 2024 β€” Deutsche Bank
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#monetarypolicy #us #sentiment #history
the history of changes in the Fed rate and market expectations.

Investors are almost always wrong about the Fed rate.

market consensus: Fed will start cutting rates after June 2024.
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earlier: historically, U.S. stocks experience significant declines when the Federal Reserve shifts from a rate-hike cycle to a rate-cut cycle. #warning
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #sentiment #warning
historically, such Barron's covers have appeared shortly before the start of corrections in US stocks.
🌎#bubble #sentiment #stocks
mentions of a "stock bubble" are at a 2-year high, but still relatively low.

billionaire investor Ray Dalio said the stock market doesn't resemble a "full-on" bubble right now.

volatility remains low for now (chart)
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #sentiment
Sundial: "small speculators" have record long positions in the S&P 500.
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #sentiment #warning
Sundial: sentiment of individual investors in U.S. stocks is currently at a historically extreme level.
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#inflation #us #sentiment
US long-term inflation expectations at record levels.
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the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s (chart)
πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³#stock #china #sentiment
BofA notes that the Chinese stock market on verge of 'panic'