Scorpi18 | Market Insights
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Insights and analysis of the global financial market by investment advisor Sergio Shalamov.

Note: This is not an investment advice.

Chat for investors: https://t.me/+lLbjdcohKhc5MDBi

Contact: @invoyager

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πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us #office
Morgan: vacancy rate in U.S. office real estate = Max since the 2008 crisis

... 39% decline in office values in the longer-run, the latter representing a $0.5T value destruction
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#office #remote #us
demand for remote jobs is on the decline
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us #office #opinion #warning
US commercial real estate prices could plummet as much as 40% from their peak in a worse crash than the 2008 financial crisis, according to Morgan - research

UBS says a potential credit crunch will lead to higher defaults on commercial real estate loans #defaults
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us #sentiment
Topdown: everyone is bearish on US real estate

πŸ’₯#reit #office
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us #debt #reit #office
BBG: almost $1.5T of US commercial real estate debt comes due for repayment before the end of 2025

Morgan: office, retail property valuations could fall as much as 40%

Musk are warning of a looming commercial real estate crisis

BofA: commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) prices = lowest level since 2009

BofA sees commercial real estate as "the next shoe to drop" because to stricter lending rules for CRE loans from US regional banks and a still low occupancy rate in offices
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#banks #realestate #default #warning #opinion
billionaire investor Howard Marks sounds the alarm on commercial real estate – warning of a wave of mortgage defaults

#office #reit
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us #office #banks
Goldman: US office occupancy rate continues to decline, especially for high-end office space in central business districts

⚠️#SLG #FSP #CIO #ESRT
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us #office #warning
Kastle Systems: office occupancy levels in New York are just 46% of prepandemic levels

one solution to New York’s glut of offices is to turn them into homes = significant fall in office real estate prices

Morgan: office property valuations could fall as much as 40%

Goldman: US office occupancy rate continues to decline
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us #office #commercial #CIO
office values have declined by 27%

the average commercial property is down 15%

β€” Green Street
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CBRE: it took 6 years for US office prices to recover after the 2008 financial crisis. This time we think it’ll take 10 years
🌎#realestate #uk #office
FT: investors are actively investing in the redevelopment of underutilized office buildings into hotels, apartments, or warehouses as landlords try to adapt to hybrid working

old office buildings are being sold at the price of the land they occupy #prices
β—οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us #office #opinion
Meredith Whitney, who predicted the 2008 mortgage crisis, says that the real estate market in the US (residential and commercial) is in good shape

#mortgage most US homeowners have a mortgage that is just 30% of their house value, which means they are less likely to owe more than their house is worth and face the risk of selling or foreclosure

#office there are concerns about the effectiveness of remote work = employers will increasingly require employees to return to the office = increase in the value of office buildings
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us
US regulators asks lenders to help firms with commercial real estate stress

#office owners are particularly struggling as higher borrowing costs complicate financing and tenants pull back given layoffs and the rise of remote work

earlier: nearly $400B of debt on commercial real estate matures this year

BBG: the world’s empty office buildings have become a debt time bomb #world

#CIO
🌏#realestate #forecast #office
PGIM Real Estate: office prices are expected to fall more than 25% in Europe and almost 13% in Asia
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New York University and Columbia University: offices in NYC will lose 44% of their pre-pandemic value by 2029 because of the impact of remote work #remote

earlier: at least 40% of workforces would remain remote
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us #office #macro
US commercial property price index.

Based on the chart, a significant decline in US commercial real estate prices is likely to occur soon.

⚠️#CIO #SLG
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us #office
Capital Economics: in cities like San Francisco and New York, office values are expected to decline by 50% over the next 3 years

⚠️#CIO #WE
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #office #mall
сommercial real estate prices in the U.S., with the exception of shopping malls, have plummeted over the past year.

⚠️ #ONL
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us #office #warning
US commercial real estate delinquency rates hit 12-year high.
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сommercial real estate prices in the U.S., with the exception of shopping malls, have plummeted over the past year (chart)

and the price decline may continue (chart)

#ONL #EQC #CIO
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #banks #us #office #warning
FT: bad commercial real estate loans have overtaken loss reserves at the biggest US banks after a sharp increase in late payments (here) linked to offices, shopping centres and other properties.
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BBG: fears of a systemic credit event are growing among fund managers as alarms sound in property markets around the world
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#realestate #us #office
US office real estate costs continue to decline β€” CommnercialEdge

... and the price decline may continue (chart)

interestingly, Class A offices (the best ones) are experiencing the most significant drops in price, while Class C offices (the worst ones) have stopped declining in price.
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earlier: the world’s empty office buildings have become a debt time bomb

⚠️#CIO #ONL #WE #EQC