⚡️🇧🇾🇷🇺🇺🇦 Situation in the Belarusian Direction by the End of 20 Oct 2022⚡️

⚠️ Amid rumours of an imminent offensive by the Russian Forces either on #Lvov with #Volyn, #Kiev, #Chernigov or #Kharkov, the @Rybar's team decided to turn its attention to the northern regions of #Ukraine and report regularly on the developments there.

Currently, the Ukrainian command continues to reinforce the troop grouping in the north of the country. Reinforcements are being moved to the regions bordering #Belarus, and fortifications are being built in the #Kharkov Region.

#Kharkov Sector:

▪️ A grouping has been formed to prevent Russian troops from resuming their offensive on the regional centre.

▪️ Military personnel of the AFU engineering units are building fortifications at the #Okop - #Veterinarnoye line as well as in #Lukyantsy. Territorial Defence detachments are manning firing positions.

▪️ AFU reconnaissance groups are reconnoitring in the border areas. Observation posts have been established near #Volchansk, #Ternovaya and #Revolyutsionny.

▪️ Artillery crews are deployed near Malye Prokhody, #Borshchevaya, #Liptsy, #Veseloye. And two 155mm Bogdan self-propelled artillery units have been moved to #Pobeda (#Peremoga).

#Chernigov Sector:

▪️ Ukrainian formations are preparing for a possible offensive by the Russian Forces. North of Novgorod-Seversky and in #Shostka, the 209th Anti Tank Division of the 403rd AFU Artillery Brigade has set up an ambush in hidden firing positions.

▪️ Sabotage groups with SPG-9 anti-tank grenade launchers have taken up positions near Seredina-Buda and Gremyach settlements. And 155-mm artillery pieces have been deployed south of Seredina-Buda.

▪️ Several detachments of English-speaking mercenaries - mostly US citizens - have been moved to the area of the #Desna combined arms training ground.

#Kiev Sector:

Ukrainian formations with the forces of the 6th Border Unit and Special Forces reconnaissance groups conduct patrols in the vicinity of the Rudnya-Ilinetskaya and Rudki settlements.

▪️ Engineer teams of the 115th Territorial Defence Brigade are setting up mine barriers on the likely offensive routes of the combined group of troops from #Belarus.

▪️ The Ukrainian command notes that Russian soldiers are using UAVs of various types on a large scale. The Ukrainian Air Force command post has been moved to #Bushevo due to the risk of strikes on rear facilities.

▪️ Several electronic warfare assets, including Khmara and Anklav, were deployed in #Brovary to counter drones and suppress communication channels.

#Northwest Section:

Ukrainian formations continue to prepare reserves to replenish the troops groupings in various directions.

▪️ A new unit, the 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade of Airborne Assault Troops, is being formed at the 37th Combined Arms Range of the AFU in #Perlyavka, southwest of #Zhytomyr. The 67th Mechanized Reserve Brigade will be established at the 184th training centre in #Starichi.

▪️ A command and observation post of the 2nd Special Forces Unit of the 71st AFU Jager Brigade is established near the settlement of #Vezhitsa in the #Rivne region. Six reconnaissance units of the 71st Jager Brigade patrol the border areas with #Belarus on a daily basis.

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⚡️🇧🇾🇷🇺🇺🇦 Situation in the Belarusian Direction until 15:00 on 27 Oct 2022⚡️

The Ukrainian leadership assesses a possible Belarusian offensive as serious.

▪️ In order to uncover the plans and movements of Russian troops, Ukrainian units of the TsIPsO (Centre for Information and Psychological Operations) are searching for Belarusian citizens who are dissatisfied with the presence of Russian Forces.

▪️ In the locality of #Derevnaya, one of the pro-Ukrainian citizens uses a satellite phone to report on the movements of Russian and Belarusian troops.

#Volyn Sector:

▪️ The AFU command moved two battalions to the Volyn Joint Force Grouping.

▪️ AFU personnel trained at the 184th training centre in #Starichi, including one battalion from the newly formed 67th Mechanized Brigade, will arrive in the Volyn region to reinforce the areas bordering #Belarus.

▪️ A company control post of the AFU's 1st Radio Technical Brigade has been established near #Lukov to monitor the air situation and launched missiles from the Belarusian territory.

#Kiev Sector:

▪️ The AFU command activates two reconnaissance groups in order to monitor the activity of the Belarusian Forces, one in the Rudnya-Ilyinetskaya area and the other near Kriva Gora.

▪️ Mobilised citizens are trained to work on artillery systems at a military training range near #Kiev.

#Chernigov Sector:

The AFU continues preparations for a possible offensive from #Belarus.

▪️ Reconnaissance units led by British mercenaries are being trained at the #Desna training centre.

▪️ At least two battalions of the Territorial Defence Forces have been moved to the areas of the #Bleshnya and #Mkhi settlements. The exercises are taking place from 25 to 29 October at military raining ranges in the area.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ #Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 27 Oct 2022⚡️

#Kiev Region:

▪️ Russian Forces continued strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure overnight. During the night raid, kamikaze drones hit autotransformers at the Kievskaya 750/330/35 kV substation.

The Belotserkovskaya 330/110/10 kV substation was also presumably one of the targets.

#Belarus Direction (MAP):

The Ukrainian command is expecting a possible offensive by the Russian Forces from the side of #Belarus.

▪️ In the village of #Derevnaya, #Minsk region, a citizen of the Republic of #Belarus passes data on the movement of Russian and Belarusian military personnel to Ukraine.

▪️ The #Volyn section on the Ukrainian side is reinforced by several battalions trained at the 184th Training Centre in #Starichi. A company control post of the AFU's 1st Radio Technical Brigade has been established near #Lukov.

▪️ In the #Kiev sector, several reconnaissance groups are active in the Rudnya-Ilyinetskaya area and near Kriva Gora.

▪️ In the #Chernigov sector, several Territorial Defensede Battalions have been deployed near of #Bleshnya and #Mkhi. Reconnaissance units led by British mercenaries are being trained at the #Desna training ground.

#Starobelsk Direction (MAP):

▪️ In the #Kupyansk section, the 14th AFU Mechanized Brigade attempted to storm #Nikolaevka and #Orlyanka, came under massive fire from Russian MLRS, suffered losses of personnel and equipment, and then withdrew.

▪️ In the #Svatovo sector, 1 BTGr of the 71st Jager Brigade attempted an offensive towards #Chernopopovka, but retreated to their initial positions after losing several tanks and combat vehicles.

▪️ In the #Lyman sector, the AFU tried to storm the Russian positions near #Torskoye, but did not succeed.

The enemy command plans to conduct a simultaneous offensive from the northeastern outskirts of #Terny and east of #Nevskoye. At the same time, Ukrainian forces shall reach the southern outskirts of #Kremennaya.

▪️ In the #Lysychansk sector, the AFU tried to gain a foothold near #Belogorovka. The attack was repulsed and the enemy retreated to #Grigorovka.

#Soledar Direction:

▪️ In this front section, the situation is unchanged. Positional fighting continues in the outskirts of #Bakhmut (#Artemovsk), #Soledar and #Opytnoye.

#Donetsk Direction:

▪️ Ukrainian militants have once again shelled settlements in the #Donetsk agglomeration, including #Donetsk, #Makeevka, #Yasinovataya and Kashtanovka. In addition, a fuel depot in #Shakhtyorsk was hit again.

#Zaporozhye Direction:

▪️ Overnight, Russian Forces launched several missile strikes on AFU facilities in #Zaporozhye and the village of #Balakovo on the outskirts of the regional capital.

▪️ Artillery duels continue along the entire contact line, with Russian Forces shelling targets in #Orekhov, #Zaliznichnoye, #Olgovskoye and #Gulyaypole.

#Dnipropetrovsk Region:

▪️ Overnight, Russian Forces launched a Geran-2 kamikaze drone strike at the #Pavlograd Mechanical Plant site, where components for ammunition and missiles are manufactured.

#Nikolaev - #Berislav Direction on Southern Front (MAP):

▪️ In the #Nikolaev sector, Ukrainian militants shelled the outskirts of Zelyony Gay, Ternovye Pody, #Kiselevka and #Petrovskoye.

▪️ In the #Andreevka sector, Ukrainian formations are moving military equipment and personnel to the eastern bank of the #Ingulets River.

▪️ In the #Berislav area, Ukrainian formations are concentrating their forces along the line of contact. An Ukrainian AN/TPQ-50 radar station was deployed near Novaya Kamenka to conduct counter-battery warfare.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 Massive Missile Strikes by the Russian Armed Forces in #Ukraine: What is known as of 18:00⚡️

🩸 In the afternoon, the Russian Armed Forces once again launched a series of strikes on targets across #Ukraine. The launches were carried out by long-range aircraft of the Russian Air Force and naval ships. As on previous occasions, the attacks caused electricity and water supply problems in Ukrainian cities.

Despite recent deliveries of Western-made air defence systems, the AFU was once again unable to repel a Russian massive air raid. So far, the following cities are reliably known to have been hit:

▪️ #Kiev: more than five cruise missile sorties. One five-storey building was damaged, which may be a consequence of Ukrainian air defence. Power outages have started in the city.

▪️ #Zhytomyr: two incursions into critical infrastructure, tentatively the Zhytomyrska 330 substation, which has previously been hit by missiles by the Russian Armed Forces. Electricity and water have been lost in the city.

▪️ #Kharkov: power cuts after incoming attacks, underground shut down. Local authorities reported hitting critical infrastructure in Chuguevsky district: probably the Zmievskaya TPP.

▪️ #Lvov: a series of explosions, power and mobile phone outages. According to preliminary reports, one of the targets was a 330kV substation.

▪️ #Sumy: explosions in the area and power outages.

▪️ #Odessa: at least one rocket flew in. Power outage in part of the area.

▪️ #Kirovograd: two sorties, power infrastructure damaged.

▪️ #Volyn: hit energy infrastructure in the region, tentatively a 330kV substation in Kovel.

▪️ #Rivne: explosion, city partially de-energised.

▪️ #KrivoyRog: at least two explosions after arrivals.

▪️ #Khmelnitsky: at least two explosions after incoming flights.

▪️ #Kremenchuk: incoming, infrastructure facility hit.

Although power cuts have begun in the country, it is not gone everywhere: this indirectly indicates that autotransformers, rather than general control points (GCPs), are once again targeted. This reduces the effectiveness of the impact on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar's Analysis - Russian Armed Forces hit Ukraine's Energy System on 15 Nov 2022⚡️

🔎 Rybar's team continues its analysis of the consequences of a systemic fire attack on Ukraine's energy system.

#Kiev said today's raid was the largest such attack since the start of the SMO. According to Ukrainian resources, cruise missiles and kamikaze drones damaged 15 critical infrastructure facilities.

We have repeatedly written that strikes have a cumulative effect, with each successive raid resulting in increasingly grave consequences for the Ukrainian energy system. This is exactly what today's events have demonstrated:

▪️ Strikes on the #Zmiev thermal power plant in #Chuguev district temporarily completely de-energised the entire #Kharkov region.

▪️ Strikes on facilities in #Kiev led to massive overloads in the power grid and tripping of emergency frequency overload automatics, which was perfectly visible in the footage of pulsating power on and off.

▪️ Repeated strikes on the #Zhytomyr 330 substation resulted in power outages in this regional centre and areas around it.

▪️ Voltage surges and temporary power outages were reported in western regions of Ukraine after repeated strikes on the Lvov-South 330 substation in Lvov Region and the #Kovel 330 substation in #Volyn Region.

🔻 For the first time, #Moldova also experienced the consequences of Russian missile strikes: paradoxically, they were the consequence of the policies of the authorities themselves in #Chisinau.

➖ Restrictions of gas supply to #Transnistria led to decrease of generation of the Moldavian state district power station that with its capacity stabilized the situation in the south of #Odessa region and fed the energy deficit of #Moldova.

➖ Due to reduced capacity and increased consumption from Ukraine, exacerbated by a possible impact on the 330 substation in #Artsyz, an automatic protection was triggered at the TPP. The plant switched to self-powered operation, which caused consumers in Moldova and Transnistria to be disconnected.

➖ Also, a section of the 750kV high voltage transit line in #Romania was disconnected, which may indirectly indicate a possible short circuit from the 750kV switchgear of the South Ukraine NPP.

🔻 The lack of objective data from most of the hit locations made it impossible to determine exactly which elements of the energy facilities were targeted in each attack.

However, dense black plumes could be seen in photos and videos from the arrival areas. This indirectly indicates that it is highly likely that the strikes were again directed at power and automatic transformers rather than general control stations (GCPs).

🩸 Their preservation would once again allow Ukrainian power producers to reassemble emergency circuits and eliminate damaged equipment in a relatively short period of time. Yes, it will cause even more severe restrictions, but power supply to consumers will be restored.

The absence of strikes on the General Control Stations reduces the impact on the Ukrainian energy system, although even then its resilience drops with each attack.

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