The Swedish authorities have published new footage of a large-scale leak from the Nord Stream gas pipeline, which occurred as a result of sabotage.

In Europe, they are already talking about an environmental catastrophe and it is impossible to name the exact timing of the repair work.
#Europe

@new_militarycolumnist

https://t.me/new_militarycolumnist/92691

⚡️The Swedish special services, which are investigating the accident at Nord Stream, do not exclude the involvement of a foreign state in the incident.
#Europe

@new_militarycolumnist

https://t.me/new_militarycolumnist/92732

Zin note: I, for one, am waiting for the day they blame a tsunami on Putin!

Read:

American politicians continue to "rock" the topic of possible nuclear strikes by the Russian Federation.

So, Senator Marco Rubio, said that Moscow could not only inflict such a strike on facilities in Ukraine, but also on the distribution center of Western weapons in Poland, but not a nuclear one.

According to French media, Russia could also use the Poseidon nuclear submersible, which cannot be traced under water, to form a huge tsunami off the coast of Western countries.
#Europe

https://t.me/new_militarycolumnist/93021

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ War Map and the Situation on the Fronts on the Evening of 22 Nov 2022, publ. 0:05⚡️

🩸 Once again, the AFU militants brutally shelled the #Belgorod region. The attack on #Shebekino resulted in three deaths: a local resident died due to a blast, and a retired couple was killed due to a mine or an unexploded shell. The main target of the shelling was the Veterans of War Hospital. Massive attacks on Russian territory finally made the federal channels realize and highlight the need for a Russian army offensive in the #Kupyansk direction. After all, dislodging the AFU from #Volchansk, #Kupyansk should not only prevent the enemy's invasion of Russian territory, but also stop artillery terrorism against #Belgorod region.

⚔️ The Situation on the Fronts over the past 24 Hours

⚫️ #Svatovo - #Kremennaya Direction:

An AFU motorized infantry company attempted to attack near #Novoselovsky LPR, but Russian artillery work halted the enemy's advance. One tank, three BMPs and five vehicles were destroyed. The militants also unsuccessfully attacked #Stelmakhovka LPR and ended up destroying three armoured vehicles and three enemy pick-up trucks.

⚫️ #Ugledar Direction:

Three Ukrainian SRGs near #Pavlovka were destroyed, the enemy lost more than 50 soldiers, three BMPs and two armoured vehicles. Also, the Russian army destroyed a mechanized company of militants near #Vodyanoye.

Six Ukrainian UAVs were also shot down near #Nikolskoye and #Vladimirovka.

💡 Today, country 404 has proved its failure not only as a state but also as a society. Members of the Kiev regime have initiated criminal proceedings against executed Russian POWs. By doing so, #Ukraine is absolving itself of responsibility for the war crime. So far, the "world community" in the form of the West sees nothing wrong, which indicates a complete acceptance of the fact of the existence of a terrorist state - errorist in the centre of #Europe.

t.me/sitreports /@readovkanews/#smo/
Join SITREP🔺Map Reports - Top Videos - Analyses

🇪🇺 ❄️ Winter outlook for Europe

🔺PART 1

▪️Can EU manage this energy emergency with LNG terminals?
It can be a solution. But there are some problems. The price of LNG at the Henry Hub, for instance, is hovering over the $2000 level, peaking sometimes to $3500 per 1000 cubic meters of gas. It can hardly be called affordable, especially in comparison with long term pipeline gas contracts. But there is competition for LNG even at these prices. Asian market has been traditionally relying on LNG, while EU faced this situation for the first time. Germany won the battle for some LNG with India, but later China took all Qatar LNG signing a multi-year contract. Egypt can increase supply to Europe just by 8 million mt/year. Finland has to share an LNG terminal with Estonia. In Italy local social movements are opposing to terminal construction. Terminals in Spain are too distant from the main consumers in Germany. France and Germany are trying to strengthen energy cooperation exchanging gas for electricity. But it cannot help to fix overall EU energy balance.

▪️New pipelines?
Algeria needs investment and time, as well as other African countries to increase gas supplies on the EU market. Sea gas exploration on the Israeli and Lebanon shelf has just been started. And gas from there will go to Egypt facilities to make LNG. Azerbaijan is pushing hard on supply increase via its pipeline system, but the disposable gas volume is still relatively small. Poland is trying to control Germany through Baltic Pipe. This project can hardly cover needs of both countries. Local pipeline projects in the Baltic states are dependent either on LNG supplies or on the Baltic Pipe gas reverse.

But there are still couple of options. First is to persuade Norway to provide more gas to the EU market at lower prices. This definitely will not make happy Norway people and government, but it's worth trying. The second option is to put into operation the huge Groningen gas field. A side effect is uncontrollable seismic activity in Western Europe.

▪️This brief review of the situation in Europe gives quite a pessimistic outlook. Although in South Europe the effects of structural problems can be mitigated, the situation is far from being under control. The EU governments right now are making hard decisions on de-industrialisation. Main energy consumers are industrial plants. And there is no way to save both industry and people. Blaming Putin for our mistakes is not the way out. More professional approach is needed. If the problems above are not addressed now, the situation will remain the same in the coming years.

#Europe #enegry #winter

@songofoil

🇪🇺⛽️ Gas celling for Europe

▪️The gas price in Europe could brake the ceiling proposed by the European Commission of $3,000 USD per 1,000 m3 and reach higher levels. In the current situation it looks quite realistic.

▪️In the past weeks we saw a minor price correction on the gas market, but this should not deceive us. The heating season in EU has just started. The US LNG terminal system capacity remains limited and does not match the demand.

▪️Seeking for alternative energy supplies Germany managed to get some more LNG, but not right now. QatarEnergy and ConocoPhillips signed an agreement to export LNG to Germany for at least 15 years, starting in 2026. Two million tons will be supplied annually from Ras Laffan to Brunsbüttel. This small amount is no comparison to the Nord Stream, but at least it’s a long-term contract instead of spot. An unpleasant side-effect of the agreement is that German energy security will be partly controlled by a Qatari and an American company. The gas price under this contract has not yet been disclosed. So ordinary Germans can only guess how much the Middle Eastern monarchy and the American corporation will earn.

▪️The main reason for such imbalances is shortage of natural gas. Oil and gas industry was underinvested in the past 20 years. Since 2016 investments by EU companies in conventional energy sources literally collapsed. This led to a substantial gap in energy supply and demand, that can’t be filled with renewables.

▪️Historically, European gas consumption peaks in January. Just a year ago the supply of Russian pipeline gas to Europe reached about 600 million m3 / day, taking into account that EU gas storage facilities were filled up to 85-95% in general.

▪️That’s why long-term contracts were the keystone on European energy system. Such contracts are dominant on the market and allow to extend investment horizon over 5, 10 or even 15 year. Spot trading has hardly surpassed 30% of the whole gas and oil market. And this ratio has been quite stable for decades. Now it’s changing dramatically at the expense of Europe, and this change will continue to push up the retail prices.

▪️Consequences
It is clear that at some point the EU authorities will be forced to make hard decisions and cut off certain categories of consumers. Critical infrastructure will remain intact, while production, commercial and private gas consumption is in crosshairs.

▪️Price celling mechanism
As reported, the instrument proposed by the EC consists of a price ceiling of €275/MWh ($2,951/1000 m3 currently) for the next month gas futures at the TTF hub.

The mechanism activates automatically when 2 conditions match:
- the estimated price of the contract will exceed €275/MWh
- TTF prices will stay above the indicative LNG price of €58/MWh for 10 consecutive trading days

Some EU energy ministers view €264/MWh price level as more acceptable. The final discussion is set for December 13th.

In any case the proposed ceiling is well above the current quotation level but below the peak prices seen in August (€350/MWh or $3,800/1,000 m3). The mechanism is likely to start working from January 1, 2023.

🔺Given that oil and gas industry was underinvested, the energy market in 2023, 2024 and 2025 will remain under sellers’ control. The price of $3,000USD is apparently inevitable. The EU states are quite limited in defending this price level. It’s necessary to use subsidies to compensate higher prices for the household gas consumption. Basically this is the only option that can help keeping prices under control for a while. A good question is - for how long subsidies will work before inflation concerns will outweight them? All other options will definitely have a positive effect, but not before 2025-2026.

#Europe #gas

@songofoil

🇪🇺 EU energy ministers again seek elusive gas price cap to contain costs

EU energy ministers again sought to overcome deep differences on a natural gas price cap that many hope would make utility bills cheaper so people can stay a little warmer during harsh winter days – if not this year, then later.

EU energy ministers have been forced into five emergency meetings because they cannot come to agreement on a maximum ceiling to pay for gas because of fear that global suppliers will simply bypass Europe when others offer more money.

Despite the time pressure two days ahead of an EU leaders summit, the meeting “will not be easy also because member states do have very different views and very different concerns,” EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson said. “Everybody has to show some flexibility, and everybody has to be able to propose some compromises.”

#EU #Europe #gas

@songofoil

Bloomberg: Europe’s $1 trillion energy bill only marks start of the crisis

According to Bloomberg, “the deepest crisis in decades is only getting started” as Europe got hit by roughly $1 trillion from surging energy costs.

After this winter, the region will have to refill gas reserves with little to no deliveries from Russia, intensifying competition for tankers of the fuel. Even with more facilities to import liquefied natural gas coming online, the market is expected to remain tight until 2026, when additional production capacity from the US to Qatar becomes available. That means no respite from high prices.

While governments were able to help companies and consumers absorb much of the blow with more than $700 billion in aid, according to the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, a state of emergency could last for years. With interest rates rising and economies likely already in recession, the support that cushioned the blow for millions of households and businesses is looking increasingly unaffordable.

#Europe #LNG #gas

@songofoil

As I said. I want to be honest, I think, and this is only my assumption… It is too late for triggering WW3:
The Ukrainian human potential is almost gone. And soon it WILL BE GONE.
The Europeans have been demilitarized. And they will be demilitarized further until this is over. There is not much which could be used to actually fight the Russians.
The Americans would withdraw its equipment to America or Asia. This is an important region. Europe lost its significance, and with it, the obligation to NATO.
Article 5 says that the allies should consult on whether and how to support the member under attack. The decision of the single member states could be to send medical equipment or simply to do nothing. This applies to America as well. America wouldn’t do much for Eastern European states. And it certainly would NOT fight Russia over them. I’m not yet sure, about central and west Europe, since America will need them, for reindustrializing over their resources and industries.
Until this war is over, NATO will only be four letters on a piece of paper. To be honest, I didn’t expect it that way. I will point out my assumption, how NATO could be dismembered, in the “strategic outlook” chapter. But as it turns out, the NATO military branch will soon be done and gone. Left will be a club of people, that are meeting regularly to issue some threats out of a parallel universe in the direction of Russia. As I said, I’ll go deeper into this later.
I want you all to keep in mind, what the ultimate goal of Russia is. Russia’s ultimate goal is to secure its strategic security in the western direction, by forcing the West to accept the new draft treaty for European security. Either voluntarily or by force. Force can be military, economic or revolutionary. Don’t forget that part. In case of failure, we all are simply going to die.

As I pointed out in the quoted article, who is cheering for Russia to lose, is cheering for his own death.

The lynchpin – Odessa

The strategic lynchpin, whether there will be a Ukraine, going forward, or not, is Odessa. With Odessa, Ukraine could sustain some kind of economy, by accessing the Black Sea. Probably it would be enough, to continue an existence as a classic American failed state, like Libya and some others that I won’t name so as to not insult the people living there.
If Russia takes Odessa, or defeats the Ukrainian army somewhere else, so that Odessa could no longer be defended, then the war is over. Odessa is more important to Ukraine than Kiev itself.
Odessa is also one of the strategic goals, named by President Vladimir Putin, before he started the SMO. 

One of these goals is to bring justice to what happened in Odessa in 2014, when some fifty Russians were burned to death by Ukrainian nationalists. It is a personal goal of Vladimir Putin to take the city and seek justice for these deaths. Here are more reasons:
It is a strategic city. Without it, there could never be something like “Ukraine” again. It wouldn’t be economically sustainable.
It would give Russia the control of a big part of the Black Sea. In fact, Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea couldn’t be contested anymore. Not only not from the Sea, but also not from the land or air.

Russia would have a deep outpost within the east flank of NATO, which is crucial. Think of radars, air bases, air defences, missile bases, fleet bases, marshalling grounds, etc.
Odessa is a Russian city. Not just any Russian city. It is a highly important Russian city. It was built by a very popular Russian emperor, Katherine the Great. Moreover, it is a hero city. (See WW2 hero cities).
Ukraine and the West will never accept peace with Russia as long as Russia holds territory that the West claims as well, such as Kherson, Crimea, etc. If the Russians would leave Odessa to Ukraine, under some kind of treaty, there would always be the danger that Ukraine rearms and uses Odessa and its access to the Black Sea to harm Russia. As we all know, and Russia knows even more, the West breaks ALL treaties that it signs.

Thus, we can see how the Russian strategy for Avdeevka has changed, which could have come as a surprise for NATO’s planners. Note that Ukraine has more or less “hard-wired” logistics routes to its main frontlines. If a new frontline or an intensification of the battle in a certain area occurs, then it is no easy task to reroute operations to such an area, especially logistics infrastructure, supply lines and frontline depots.
In brief, I see the activation of another vector of attrition, or theatre of war, to release the pressure on Marinka and Ugledar. Or, if Ukraine is able to sustain all the frontlines, then Russia will try to shorten the war with increased attrition of men and matériel.
As for the Belarussian theatre of war, we can assume that the Ukrainians’ ability to keep up the fight has been overestimated for several months. If the Ukrainians pull troops away from the northern border to replace their losses in Donbass, then the situation will be dire. I expected a vector of attrition near the border. But there might not be much left to wear down there.
As soon as the frontlines in Donbass collapse, there is a real possibility that Russia could use the Belarussian border to put pressure on Kiev and to take it in a pincer, thus forcing negotiation of a Ukrainian surrender. More about that eventuality in the last section.

Sino-Russian peace proposal

President Xi of China and President Putin will meet next week amid rumours that China will propose to Ukraine a peace deal agreed upon by the Russians.
Readers of my blog know that I see no chance on Earth that Ukraine will not entirely fall to Russia. Yes, some parts of it could be given pseudo-independence after denazification and demilitarization, especially parts of Western Ukraine. My assessment has not changed in any way.
Especially because the Russians’ overall goal is implementation of the New Draft Treaty for European Security.
Remember that if Russia does not achieve its geopolitical goals, it will automatically lose the war, even if some kind of temporary peace is achieved, and Novorossiya, including Odessa, joins Russia. Remember the threat of NATO, which would still be too close to Russia’s large cities and could lead to automated Armageddon if Russia’s “Perimeter” (or “Dead Hand”) system were switched on in automatic mode.
So, what could the Chinese offer be? And why is it being offered at all?
Why is it being offered? Well, I could explain it politely but I won’t. In a nutshell, it’s a public relations exercise.
What could the offer be? I have no way of knowing but I will make an assumption. Given that all of Ukraine will have to surrender, and then some parts could be given pseudo-independence, I can speculate that the question is whether Kiev will be part of Russia or of the new pseudo-independent country. If Kiev is still part of it, it would mean the preservation of “Ukraine”, despite its dependence on Russia.
If Kiev is incorporated into Russia, Ukraine is done for. And with it the Western dream of restarting the whole adventure and infiltrating the pseudo-independent state again to bring it back under the West’s influence. If Kiev is not part of the farce, then there will be nothing viable or interesting for the West, except the land bridge to Hungary and Serbia, which of course is a geopolitical necessity for Russia in order to break up NATO.
Do you think China will formulate its proposal as bluntly as I have here? That’s not how diplomacy works. There will be an X-point plan that is beautiful but meaningless. The real terms of surrender will be communicated behind closed doors. Do I expect the Ukrainians to accept such an offer? Well, given that the Ukrainians have nothing to say (only the Americans do), I have two different considerations:
The West wants to fight to the last Ukrainian. See the “Scorched earth” section. Hence, any ceasefire that would save even a single Ukrainian life is unacceptable to the leaders of the United States. By the way, I don’t blame the people of the US.