Soybean prices typically exhibit seasonal patterns influenced by planting and harvesting cycles, weather conditions, and market demand.
From May 20 onwards, soybeans often enter a period of increased volatility and potential bullish trends. This is due to several factors:
Growing Season and Weather Concerns:
The period from late spring into summer coincides with critical stages in soybean development. Weather patterns, particularly in the Midwest, can significantly impact yield expectations, causing price fluctuations. Dry or excessively wet conditions can lead to concerns about the crop, which generally supports higher prices during this period.
Planting Progress and Early Crop Reports:
By late May, planting progress is closely monitored. Delays or issues in planting can trigger bullish sentiments as they might lead to lower-than-expected yields. Additionally, early reports on crop conditions start to come in, which can influence market expectations.
Export Demand:
Seasonal export patterns, particularly to China, play a crucial role. In years where export demand is strong, particularly if U.S. soybeans are more competitively priced compared to South American beans, this can also drive prices higher during this time.
Historically, the period from May through July can see price increases, especially if there are concerns about the upcoming harvest or strong demand signals from major buyers like China. However, it's important to note that these trends can be influenced by broader market conditions and unexpected events.
Overall, while there is a seasonal tendency for soybean prices to strengthen from May 20 onwards, traders should remain aware of the specific market conditions each year, including weather forecasts, planting progress, and international trade dynamics.
Soybean-JUL24 price bottomed out with a convincing bullish reversal pattern. The least expected move we have discussed in #XMLive Trading Room was 12.50 and 12.80 levels. However, if the seasonality with the rising demand from China continues strongly, we might see $14, $15, and beyond.
#soybean #soybeans #commodities #commodity #commoditytrading #softcommodities #agriculture
From May 20 onwards, soybeans often enter a period of increased volatility and potential bullish trends. This is due to several factors:
Growing Season and Weather Concerns:
The period from late spring into summer coincides with critical stages in soybean development. Weather patterns, particularly in the Midwest, can significantly impact yield expectations, causing price fluctuations. Dry or excessively wet conditions can lead to concerns about the crop, which generally supports higher prices during this period.
Planting Progress and Early Crop Reports:
By late May, planting progress is closely monitored. Delays or issues in planting can trigger bullish sentiments as they might lead to lower-than-expected yields. Additionally, early reports on crop conditions start to come in, which can influence market expectations.
Export Demand:
Seasonal export patterns, particularly to China, play a crucial role. In years where export demand is strong, particularly if U.S. soybeans are more competitively priced compared to South American beans, this can also drive prices higher during this time.
Historically, the period from May through July can see price increases, especially if there are concerns about the upcoming harvest or strong demand signals from major buyers like China. However, it's important to note that these trends can be influenced by broader market conditions and unexpected events.
Overall, while there is a seasonal tendency for soybean prices to strengthen from May 20 onwards, traders should remain aware of the specific market conditions each year, including weather forecasts, planting progress, and international trade dynamics.
Soybean-JUL24 price bottomed out with a convincing bullish reversal pattern. The least expected move we have discussed in #XMLive Trading Room was 12.50 and 12.80 levels. However, if the seasonality with the rising demand from China continues strongly, we might see $14, $15, and beyond.
#soybean #soybeans #commodities #commodity #commoditytrading #softcommodities #agriculture