✅New Trades in the VIP Channel: AUDJPY TP HIT, NZDUSD TP HIT, DAX by the book, EURUSD bounced as expected 🤩
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ℹ️We keep observing for new trading opportunities and new detailed Fundamental outlook will be shared today❗️
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ℹ️We keep observing for new trading opportunities and new detailed Fundamental outlook will be shared today❗️
⚠️Do not miss it out! Find more information at the Pinned message above👆
ℹ️BTCUSD chart looks very interesting today
📊Highly correlated BTC with US equity markets is not following the US100 price drop that much. Yes, it has dropped during the Asia session, but it seems bulls are taking over, isn't it?
👀We keep a close eye on Crypto markets as well. If you want to take advantage of our Deep-Dive Fundamental Crypto market Analysis, do not lose time and join the VIP Channel!
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📊Highly correlated BTC with US equity markets is not following the US100 price drop that much. Yes, it has dropped during the Asia session, but it seems bulls are taking over, isn't it?
👀We keep a close eye on Crypto markets as well. If you want to take advantage of our Deep-Dive Fundamental Crypto market Analysis, do not lose time and join the VIP Channel!
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Sign up today for a live trading account and start trading FX, Stock Indices, Gold and Oil.
US100 bullish technical divergence
H4 bullish close will be an excellent bullish signal to buy with targets of 13860 and 14380 levels short-term.
Join our Live Trading Session in XM NOW: bit.ly/AdvancedRoom
H4 bullish close will be an excellent bullish signal to buy with targets of 13860 and 14380 levels short-term.
Join our Live Trading Session in XM NOW: bit.ly/AdvancedRoom
✅Oil continues with its bearish trend.
Technical short trade on the break down completed the target. Now we are looking for reversal signals to close the position and watch for potential buy short-term signals.
The reason we make more short-term trades here is because of uncertainty. If Oil exporters manage to increase the output, we might see a nice oil drop, which will be good for the global economy.
Let's keep an eye on further developments!
If Oil breaks above the mentioned level on the chart, we can take a long position. If it breaks below, we will hold the short one.
👉🏼Live Trading Session with Dzhuneyt Vahid in XM Advanced room:
bit.ly/AdvancedRoom
Technical short trade on the break down completed the target. Now we are looking for reversal signals to close the position and watch for potential buy short-term signals.
The reason we make more short-term trades here is because of uncertainty. If Oil exporters manage to increase the output, we might see a nice oil drop, which will be good for the global economy.
Let's keep an eye on further developments!
If Oil breaks above the mentioned level on the chart, we can take a long position. If it breaks below, we will hold the short one.
👉🏼Live Trading Session with Dzhuneyt Vahid in XM Advanced room:
bit.ly/AdvancedRoom
https://trade-insider.com/2023/05/08/energy-stocks-and-crude-oil/
Energy Sector And Crude Oil Price Update
Energy Sector And Crude Oil Price Update
Trade-Insider
Energy Stocks And Crude Oil are attractive on the current levels!
Energy Stocks And Crude Oil Price Update! The prospects for the energy stocks remain unclear. Crude Oil prices have been bouncing from the lows.
https://trade-insider.com/2023/05/12/gold-market-update/
Gold has been ranging for quite some time.
Gold has been ranging for quite some time.
Trade-Insider
Gold has been ranging for quite some time. - Trade-Insider
Gold Market looks interesting. The price has declined since yesterday followed by positive news affecting the market mood to more negative sentiment due to Fed's potentially more hawkish than dovish Fed in the near future. Let's have a look at the technical…
ℹ️NEW TRADING SIGNAL was shared in the VIP Channel🎯
💡GOLD xxx xxxx - xxxx
❗️SL xxxx
✅TP xxxx
✅TP2 xxxx
💡GOLD xxx xxxx - xxxx
❗️SL xxxx
✅TP xxxx
✅TP2 xxxx
Liquidity is one of the biggest intermediate-term drivers for both financial assets and even the economy itself. Valuations, structural growth, and macro factors serve as the foundation of my long-term views on various asset classes, but in recent years liquidity tends to be a driving force over any given multi-month period.
We traded very actively with our short and mid-term trading strategies on various instruments, using trend-following and trend-reversal trading positions. We are happy with the success of our trading strategies so far, but the question now is, what from here?
My prediction for the second half of this year was that USD might strengthen again due to my expectations for the changes in the liquidity cycles. This means a dull or slightly bearish stock market, weaker gold, choppy major fx instruments, hit on oil (short-term).
Gold declined as expected. The stock market bounced so far with the liquidity boost from the government, but the question now is if the liquidity start shrinking what is coming? Fx majors were more or less predictable with the patterns and technical cycles. Major banks are hiking rates aggressively (BoC, ECB, BoE, FED, RBA, RBNZ), but BoJ is still holding their ultra-lose MP.
In my next Premium article, I will deep-dive into liquidity conditions, market trends and opportunities. I will also touch on the energy sector, crypto, major Fx and some long-term individual stock opportunities with solid fundamental arguments.
For short-term trades, I just shared a few trades I am trading now.
ℹ️NEW TRADING SIGNAL was shared in the VIP Channel🎯
💡BTCUSD xxx xxxx - xxxx
❗️SL xxxx
✅TP xxxx
✅TP2 xxxx
✅TP3 xxxx
ℹ️NEW TRADING SIGNAL was shared in the VIP Channel🎯
💡AUDUSD xxx xxxx - xxxx
❗️SL xxxx
✅TP xxxx
✅TP2 xxxx
✅TP3 xxxx
ℹ️NEW TRADING SIGNAL was shared in the VIP Channel🎯
💡EURSD xxx xxxx - xxxx
❗️SL xxxx
✅TP xxxx
✅TP2 xxxx
✅TP3 xxxx
ℹ️NEW TRADING SIGNAL was shared in the VIP Channel🎯
💡GBPAUD xxx xxxx - xxxx
❗️SL xxxx
✅TP xxxx
✅TP2 xxxx
✅TP3 xxxx
Enjoy!
We traded very actively with our short and mid-term trading strategies on various instruments, using trend-following and trend-reversal trading positions. We are happy with the success of our trading strategies so far, but the question now is, what from here?
My prediction for the second half of this year was that USD might strengthen again due to my expectations for the changes in the liquidity cycles. This means a dull or slightly bearish stock market, weaker gold, choppy major fx instruments, hit on oil (short-term).
Gold declined as expected. The stock market bounced so far with the liquidity boost from the government, but the question now is if the liquidity start shrinking what is coming? Fx majors were more or less predictable with the patterns and technical cycles. Major banks are hiking rates aggressively (BoC, ECB, BoE, FED, RBA, RBNZ), but BoJ is still holding their ultra-lose MP.
In my next Premium article, I will deep-dive into liquidity conditions, market trends and opportunities. I will also touch on the energy sector, crypto, major Fx and some long-term individual stock opportunities with solid fundamental arguments.
For short-term trades, I just shared a few trades I am trading now.
ℹ️NEW TRADING SIGNAL was shared in the VIP Channel🎯
💡BTCUSD xxx xxxx - xxxx
❗️SL xxxx
✅TP xxxx
✅TP2 xxxx
✅TP3 xxxx
ℹ️NEW TRADING SIGNAL was shared in the VIP Channel🎯
💡AUDUSD xxx xxxx - xxxx
❗️SL xxxx
✅TP xxxx
✅TP2 xxxx
✅TP3 xxxx
ℹ️NEW TRADING SIGNAL was shared in the VIP Channel🎯
💡EURSD xxx xxxx - xxxx
❗️SL xxxx
✅TP xxxx
✅TP2 xxxx
✅TP3 xxxx
ℹ️NEW TRADING SIGNAL was shared in the VIP Channel🎯
💡GBPAUD xxx xxxx - xxxx
❗️SL xxxx
✅TP xxxx
✅TP2 xxxx
✅TP3 xxxx
Enjoy!
https://trade-insider.com/2023/08/29/macro-analysis/
Macro View: Liquidity, Business Cycles, Technical Charts
Macro View: Liquidity, Business Cycles, Technical Charts
Trade-Insider
Macro View: Liquidity, Business Cycles, Technical Charts - Trade-Insider
US Stock market is down, Gold dropped down to $1885 and it is recovering now to $1920s, Bitcoin is down, Oil also dropped -8% from the recent highs and now it is recovering +3%. EURUSD is down, VIX have some mild higher highs and higher lows.
https://trade-insider.com/2023/08/31/sector-update-and-stock-picks/
Sector Update and Stock picks
Sector Update and Stock picks
Trade-Insider
Sector Update and Stock picks - Trade-Insider
The U.S. federal government’s fiscal deficit for the first 10 months of the fiscal year (October 2022 through July 2023) was $1.6 trillion. That’s twice what it was for the first ten months of last year. The largest component of that increase was the higher…
Hey, Traders!
I have been neglecting my FREE Telegram Channel due to a busy schedule for which I’m sorry and will try to be more active up next.
There are a lot of headlines and topics on social media, my XM Live Sessions, and in most newsfeeds about Gold, JPY, BTC, Inflation, Recession, etc.
Whenever I see a given macroeconomic topic get nonstop chatter on social media, also on XM live sessions, it usually means that it’s near the end of its current move.
In recent weeks as I said , the USDJPY got a lot of social media attention, since the yen was sharply weakening relative to the dollar to levels not seen in over thirty years.
The more questions from friends, traders, analysts, and investors I get about USDJPY and BoJ the more that grab my attention sentiment-wise.
Not that we haven’t discussed everything in detail during XM Live sessions, but Let's deep dive into this topic for this post.
I have been pointed out that the root of the currency problem is that Japan has over 250% public debt to GDP, which puts them firmly into fiscal dominance. They can’t afford positive real interest rates on a sustained basis, which limits their ability to perform adequate monetary policy.
When government debts and deficits become structurally large and fiscal dominance takes hold, capital controls and financial repression tend to become commonplace.
Japan currently has 0.1% short term interest rates despite experiencing above-target inflation, at a time when most other developed countries have 4-5% interest rates or higher. This makes holding yen unattractive, and thus hurts the exchange rate. The Bank of Japan has thus far chosen not to meaningfully tighten monetary policy in the face of this, although they previously intervened when the exchange rate moved faster than they prefer.
That’s the problem with being in fiscal dominance, which applies even more to Japan than the United States. Japan has such large government debts (over 250% public debt to GDP) that if they raise interest rates meaningfully in line with the rest of the developed world, it would blow out their public interest expense to huge levels, which in large part flows to the private sector and is nominally stimulatory and would require support from the central bank.
If Japan wants to defend its exchange rate at some point again, they could sell some U.S. Treasuries and buy back some yen. They have a strong current account surplus and accumulated positive net international investment position, and are the biggest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries in the world. Thus far, the yen has weakened because they have allowed it to weaken. They have plenty of ammo to deploy if the devaluation gets too disorderly for their preferences, even if interest rates are not necessarily the ideal tool for them to use.
Japan indeed intervened by selling dollar assets and buying back the yen. The Financial Times estimated that it was around $35 billionworth of intervention.
The effects from that were short-lived, so on May 1st (early May 2nd their time), Japan came in with a second invention of what looks like around $23 billion that had more of a cumulative impact.
The success of a currency intervention can be judged with a couple different measurements.
One measure of success is to quantify how much the intervention improved the exchange rate relative to the money spent. Dropping the dollar/yen exchange rate from 160 to 155 might not seem like a lot, but that’s a 3% improvement on the value of Japan’s total money supply relative to the dollar, and Japan’s 1.6 quadrillion yen M3 money supply was worth about $10 trillion USD at the peak exchange rate of 160 USDJPY. Moving a $10 trillion money supply’s value by 3% is about $300 billion worth of total currency strengthening, for less than $60 billion spent on intervention. You can narrow that a bit by focusing on M2, or broadening it by including the whole bond market, but either way it’s a decent ratio. However, it remains to be seen how long that strengthening will hold.
I have been neglecting my FREE Telegram Channel due to a busy schedule for which I’m sorry and will try to be more active up next.
There are a lot of headlines and topics on social media, my XM Live Sessions, and in most newsfeeds about Gold, JPY, BTC, Inflation, Recession, etc.
Whenever I see a given macroeconomic topic get nonstop chatter on social media, also on XM live sessions, it usually means that it’s near the end of its current move.
In recent weeks as I said , the USDJPY got a lot of social media attention, since the yen was sharply weakening relative to the dollar to levels not seen in over thirty years.
The more questions from friends, traders, analysts, and investors I get about USDJPY and BoJ the more that grab my attention sentiment-wise.
Not that we haven’t discussed everything in detail during XM Live sessions, but Let's deep dive into this topic for this post.
I have been pointed out that the root of the currency problem is that Japan has over 250% public debt to GDP, which puts them firmly into fiscal dominance. They can’t afford positive real interest rates on a sustained basis, which limits their ability to perform adequate monetary policy.
When government debts and deficits become structurally large and fiscal dominance takes hold, capital controls and financial repression tend to become commonplace.
Japan currently has 0.1% short term interest rates despite experiencing above-target inflation, at a time when most other developed countries have 4-5% interest rates or higher. This makes holding yen unattractive, and thus hurts the exchange rate. The Bank of Japan has thus far chosen not to meaningfully tighten monetary policy in the face of this, although they previously intervened when the exchange rate moved faster than they prefer.
That’s the problem with being in fiscal dominance, which applies even more to Japan than the United States. Japan has such large government debts (over 250% public debt to GDP) that if they raise interest rates meaningfully in line with the rest of the developed world, it would blow out their public interest expense to huge levels, which in large part flows to the private sector and is nominally stimulatory and would require support from the central bank.
If Japan wants to defend its exchange rate at some point again, they could sell some U.S. Treasuries and buy back some yen. They have a strong current account surplus and accumulated positive net international investment position, and are the biggest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries in the world. Thus far, the yen has weakened because they have allowed it to weaken. They have plenty of ammo to deploy if the devaluation gets too disorderly for their preferences, even if interest rates are not necessarily the ideal tool for them to use.
Japan indeed intervened by selling dollar assets and buying back the yen. The Financial Times estimated that it was around $35 billionworth of intervention.
The effects from that were short-lived, so on May 1st (early May 2nd their time), Japan came in with a second invention of what looks like around $23 billion that had more of a cumulative impact.
The success of a currency intervention can be judged with a couple different measurements.
One measure of success is to quantify how much the intervention improved the exchange rate relative to the money spent. Dropping the dollar/yen exchange rate from 160 to 155 might not seem like a lot, but that’s a 3% improvement on the value of Japan’s total money supply relative to the dollar, and Japan’s 1.6 quadrillion yen M3 money supply was worth about $10 trillion USD at the peak exchange rate of 160 USDJPY. Moving a $10 trillion money supply’s value by 3% is about $300 billion worth of total currency strengthening, for less than $60 billion spent on intervention. You can narrow that a bit by focusing on M2, or broadening it by including the whole bond market, but either way it’s a decent ratio. However, it remains to be seen how long that strengthening will hold.
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A second measure of success is to see if it broke the trend and put two-way risk back into the market. If market participants believe that there is no risk to borrowing yen at low interest rates and using it to buy higher-yielding dollars or other non-yen assets, then they will keep doing so more and more aggressively. Borrowing yen in a fractional reserve system creates more yen, and so that’s a cumulative attack on the currency. The willingness to occasionally do sharp interventions makes it so that speculators have to think twice before leveraging themselves too much. In other words, the currency may keep devaluing over time, but the speed of the devaluation can be slowed down because the vicious cycle of more and more leveraged shorts gets disrupted from time to time and can’t feed on itself so quickly.
Japan has one of the largest net international investment positions in the world, meaning that Japan owns more foreign assets than the foreign sector collectively owns Japanese assets, by a wide margin. In addition to the government selling its holdings to finance their interventions, Japan could increase regulations on large domestic pools of capital to force them to hold more domestic assets and fewer foreign assets. But it’s unclear to what extent that might occur or what the timing might be.
So, that whole set of topics regarding capital controls and regulation of pools of capital toward domestic assets is a nonlinear overlay on top of what is otherwise a pretty mechanical outcome of ongoing yen devaluation.
Today I cautiously shorted USDJPY before the CPI data live, during my XM Live Trading Sessions, and currently is running in a good profit. However, I don't trust the move so much and decided to secure the trade with an SL below the entry level, so I can sleep well.
If you want to learn macroeconomics, financial analysis, investment models and methods, and trading join my VIP subscription services and watch all my XM live trading for free!
Trade with my trusted broker:
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Japan has one of the largest net international investment positions in the world, meaning that Japan owns more foreign assets than the foreign sector collectively owns Japanese assets, by a wide margin. In addition to the government selling its holdings to finance their interventions, Japan could increase regulations on large domestic pools of capital to force them to hold more domestic assets and fewer foreign assets. But it’s unclear to what extent that might occur or what the timing might be.
So, that whole set of topics regarding capital controls and regulation of pools of capital toward domestic assets is a nonlinear overlay on top of what is otherwise a pretty mechanical outcome of ongoing yen devaluation.
Today I cautiously shorted USDJPY before the CPI data live, during my XM Live Trading Sessions, and currently is running in a good profit. However, I don't trust the move so much and decided to secure the trade with an SL below the entry level, so I can sleep well.
If you want to learn macroeconomics, financial analysis, investment models and methods, and trading join my VIP subscription services and watch all my XM live trading for free!
Trade with my trusted broker:
https://affs.click/YMndh
Like and Follow Trade-Insider’a social media and contact with me if you have any questions:)
Xm
Register Your Account
Hey, Traders!
#BTCUSD
Price action for #bitcoin has been consolidating for two months, from mid-March through mid-May.
The percentage of coins that haven’t moved in over a year began increasing during the bull run, as some long-term holders sold into the strength, which always happens. Now that the sharp upward price move is over, those coins aren’t really coming to market anymore, which is good because it means the supply side is getting tighter again.
My view about BTC technically is #bullish. I believe #BTC has completed its Flat (ABC) correction. Possibilities in the short term for me are bullish, but I’m not necessarily going for all-time highs from here. For chart pattern traders, the price just broke out the “neckline” of the H&S formed pattern. I will keep an eye on the resistance levels within the range and I will be closely following the #priceaction guidelines for potential longer-term range scenarios.
The Bitcoin Exchange Reserves data denotes the total amount of coins or cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, stored in wallets or addresses controlled by a specific exchange. It signifies the overall holdings available for different purposes, including facilitating trades, withdrawals, and managing user balances, currently at an unprecedented low. That means low short-term supply. And a low short-term supply of Bitcoin on exchanges suggests increased competition among buyers, potentially leading to price appreciation. It could support my buy theory by indicating bullish market sentiment, further analysis of other factors is necessary and I will share more details in the coming days in XM Live.
In the long run I am generally bullish with an 18-month view. I consider dollar-cost averaging into the asset to make the most sense for people that want some exposure, and I don’t particularly recommend holding Bitcoin unless someone plans to hold it for 3-4+ years.
My base case is that as long as global #liquidity continues to chop along, bitcoin will probably chop along as well due to lackluster #demand, and then when global liquidity eventually heads up, so will Bitcoin.
👉Join my Private VIP channel and take your trading to the next level :)⚡
#BTCUSD
Price action for #bitcoin has been consolidating for two months, from mid-March through mid-May.
The percentage of coins that haven’t moved in over a year began increasing during the bull run, as some long-term holders sold into the strength, which always happens. Now that the sharp upward price move is over, those coins aren’t really coming to market anymore, which is good because it means the supply side is getting tighter again.
My view about BTC technically is #bullish. I believe #BTC has completed its Flat (ABC) correction. Possibilities in the short term for me are bullish, but I’m not necessarily going for all-time highs from here. For chart pattern traders, the price just broke out the “neckline” of the H&S formed pattern. I will keep an eye on the resistance levels within the range and I will be closely following the #priceaction guidelines for potential longer-term range scenarios.
The Bitcoin Exchange Reserves data denotes the total amount of coins or cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, stored in wallets or addresses controlled by a specific exchange. It signifies the overall holdings available for different purposes, including facilitating trades, withdrawals, and managing user balances, currently at an unprecedented low. That means low short-term supply. And a low short-term supply of Bitcoin on exchanges suggests increased competition among buyers, potentially leading to price appreciation. It could support my buy theory by indicating bullish market sentiment, further analysis of other factors is necessary and I will share more details in the coming days in XM Live.
In the long run I am generally bullish with an 18-month view. I consider dollar-cost averaging into the asset to make the most sense for people that want some exposure, and I don’t particularly recommend holding Bitcoin unless someone plans to hold it for 3-4+ years.
My base case is that as long as global #liquidity continues to chop along, bitcoin will probably chop along as well due to lackluster #demand, and then when global liquidity eventually heads up, so will Bitcoin.
👉Join my Private VIP channel and take your trading to the next level :)⚡
Soybean prices typically exhibit seasonal patterns influenced by planting and harvesting cycles, weather conditions, and market demand.
From May 20 onwards, soybeans often enter a period of increased volatility and potential bullish trends. This is due to several factors:
Growing Season and Weather Concerns:
The period from late spring into summer coincides with critical stages in soybean development. Weather patterns, particularly in the Midwest, can significantly impact yield expectations, causing price fluctuations. Dry or excessively wet conditions can lead to concerns about the crop, which generally supports higher prices during this period.
Planting Progress and Early Crop Reports:
By late May, planting progress is closely monitored. Delays or issues in planting can trigger bullish sentiments as they might lead to lower-than-expected yields. Additionally, early reports on crop conditions start to come in, which can influence market expectations.
Export Demand:
Seasonal export patterns, particularly to China, play a crucial role. In years where export demand is strong, particularly if U.S. soybeans are more competitively priced compared to South American beans, this can also drive prices higher during this time.
Historically, the period from May through July can see price increases, especially if there are concerns about the upcoming harvest or strong demand signals from major buyers like China. However, it's important to note that these trends can be influenced by broader market conditions and unexpected events.
Overall, while there is a seasonal tendency for soybean prices to strengthen from May 20 onwards, traders should remain aware of the specific market conditions each year, including weather forecasts, planting progress, and international trade dynamics.
Soybean-JUL24 price bottomed out with a convincing bullish reversal pattern. The least expected move we have discussed in #XMLive Trading Room was 12.50 and 12.80 levels. However, if the seasonality with the rising demand from China continues strongly, we might see $14, $15, and beyond.
#soybean #soybeans #commodities #commodity #commoditytrading #softcommodities #agriculture
From May 20 onwards, soybeans often enter a period of increased volatility and potential bullish trends. This is due to several factors:
Growing Season and Weather Concerns:
The period from late spring into summer coincides with critical stages in soybean development. Weather patterns, particularly in the Midwest, can significantly impact yield expectations, causing price fluctuations. Dry or excessively wet conditions can lead to concerns about the crop, which generally supports higher prices during this period.
Planting Progress and Early Crop Reports:
By late May, planting progress is closely monitored. Delays or issues in planting can trigger bullish sentiments as they might lead to lower-than-expected yields. Additionally, early reports on crop conditions start to come in, which can influence market expectations.
Export Demand:
Seasonal export patterns, particularly to China, play a crucial role. In years where export demand is strong, particularly if U.S. soybeans are more competitively priced compared to South American beans, this can also drive prices higher during this time.
Historically, the period from May through July can see price increases, especially if there are concerns about the upcoming harvest or strong demand signals from major buyers like China. However, it's important to note that these trends can be influenced by broader market conditions and unexpected events.
Overall, while there is a seasonal tendency for soybean prices to strengthen from May 20 onwards, traders should remain aware of the specific market conditions each year, including weather forecasts, planting progress, and international trade dynamics.
Soybean-JUL24 price bottomed out with a convincing bullish reversal pattern. The least expected move we have discussed in #XMLive Trading Room was 12.50 and 12.80 levels. However, if the seasonality with the rising demand from China continues strongly, we might see $14, $15, and beyond.
#soybean #soybeans #commodities #commodity #commoditytrading #softcommodities #agriculture