First Bet Builder for tonight's Prem game.

Mount will be playing in the 10 for United tonight with Bruno out and not even in the squad. There isn't a whole lot of depth on the bench either, so expecting him to get a decent chunk of minutes. United's CB pairing is Evans and Casemiro and Palace have Eze and Olise both starting, so expecting an open game. He's been out most of the season but I think this is a good value bet given expected role and minutes.

Second Bet Builder for tonight's Prem game.

An open, back and fourth game will lead to more transitional moments and therefore more fouls.

Dalot has a foul in 13/15 away games and will be up against Olise down the left. Munoz has a foul in all six home starts and all 10 starts under Glasner. He's actually hit 2+ fouls in six. Wharton has a foul in all five home starts and 8 out of 10 under Glasner.

Both bet reasoning has been added and bet365 are running a 25% winnings boost on Palace v United for all customers!

See how the offer works and how to claim it here ▶️ https://www.soccerbase.com/blog/football/rpsport/add-a-25-winnings-boost-on-to-your-bet-builders/2937940/

Evening all,

After getting shafted by no Bruno for United last night, I wanted to see teams before getting involved tonight.

I've had two bets:

1 point on the Bet Builder.

🇪🇺 PSG v Dortmund
Over 3.5 Goals

bet365 - 1.98 - 1 Point

The first leg ended 1-0 Dortmund but there was 3.26 xG. We now get a big favourite chasing the tie at home. PSG beat Dortmund 2-0 at home in the group stages and have a very attacking lineup out. I see a lot of game states where this is end to end throughtout. Goal expectancy also increases for a second leg. Mbappe's last Champions League home game too.

Because of the attacking PSG lineup with them chasing the game, I'm targeting Mbappe and Dembele shots. Mbappe has hit 4/5 UCL home games, including 5 against Dortmund. Dembele has hit this in 3/5 home games but has been more of a focal point in the last three UCL games going 3,5,5 shots and hitting the target in all 3.

Best of luck if you follow 👍

Analysis updated 👍

Let me know if you're having a bet tonight 👇

Evening all,

Been a pretty rough week for us so but we take the rough with the smooth.

I've had one bet on tonight's game:

🇪🇺 Real Madrid vs Bayern Munich
Over 3.0 Goal Line

bet365 - 1.99 - 1 Point

The game was pretty even on expected goals with the xG ending 2.02-1.41. If we look at Real Madrid's UCL home form. They have scored 12 in 5 but conceded in 3, which all came against elite opposition. All five matches have seen over 3 expected goals. Tchouaméni is a doubt with a foot injury, which dents their defensive strength. Bayern's UCL away form is also impressive with 8 goals. Their only blank came at Lazio, where they had a 67th-minute red card. They have created over 1.6 expected goals in every game, including away at Arsenal. Like Madrid, they've also been leaky at the back, conceding in 4 out of 5. They've also seen over 3 xG land in 4 out of 5.

Best of luck if you follow 👍

Bet Builder for tonight's game.

Rodrygo and Vini Jr have a SOT in every home game they've played in the Champions League. Vini hit the target three times in the first leg and they'll be up against Dier and De Ligt. No Goretzka in midfield either. Harry Kane has had 2+ shots in four of five away in the Champions League. As outlined in the prematch bet, Madrid have been leaky at home against good sides in the Champions League. I'm expecting an open game like the first leg was.

✅️ Bet Builder lands easily but I have no idea how this game is 0-0.

Should be about 4 goals already but going to be another one of those nights for the overs.

Good morning all,

Thankfully, we got the goals we deserved last night and secured a profit, even if we did deserve to win the over 3.0 as well! As always, we move on to today's action!

I've had one bet on tonight's game:

🇪🇺 Atalanta v Marseille
Over 2.5 Goals

bet365 - 1.87 - 1 Point

◾️Marseille have conceded two or more in five away games on the bounce.
◾️They've seen over 2.5 land in 11 of 14 overall and five of six away under Jean-Louis Gassett.
◾️Atalanta are more aggressive at home. They've kept just one clean sheet in six against the top half in Serie A and seen over 2.5 land in five.
◾️They conceded in both European home games against Sporting and Liverpool.
◾️Atalanta created 1.05 xG away in the first leg.

I'll be back after team news for Bet Builder selections.

If you had bet Bet Builder selections to £20 a point this season, you'd have made +£256.80 in profit—and we only started in February!

Best of luck if you follow 👍

Evening all, I think I'm going to leave the Bet Builder tonight.

Villa's team is a bit weird and I've spent too much time trying to figure it out. I think Diaby will be in behind Watkins and Cash out on the right wing but I want to be fully sure before betting it.

Plenty of action to come this weekend, so I'll just stick with the overs at Atalanta.

Best of luck tonight with your bets 👍

Get in there!

✅️ 95th minute winner!

Back tomorrow morning with Friday's bets!

Good morning all,

Our data scientists have been busy! We now have xG data for a few more leagues, including Australia and Dutch Eerste!

I've had two bets today:

🇦🇺 Sydney FC v Central Coast Mariners
Sydney FC Win

bet365 - 2.05 - 0.5 Points

Although Central Coast finished top of the regular season, our xG model has Sydney FC as the best team in the league. They comfortably beat Central Coast 2-0 back in March and destroyed them on xG 2.52-0.36. Sydney have created over 2.00 expected goals in 11 of 13 home games if you discount games where they had a red card. According to Net xG, Sydney have been the best side in the A-League over the past 12 games. Taking Sydney to win at over even money looks like good value.

🇳🇱 MVV Maastricht v VVV Venlo
Over 3.0 Goal Line

bet365 - 1.73 - 0.5 Points

MVV need to win to give themselves a chance at a possible playoff promotion spot, and VVV have nothing to play for. Maastricht have been involved in many high-scoring games against similar opposition to VVV at home - 3-0, 3-3, 6-1, 3-0, 4-0, and 2-1 with a red card. VVV have been good away from home in these spots, mainly due to their defence. Their defensive work rate won't be as high with nothing to play for, but they should still be a threat going forward. The first leg ended 3-1 to MVV with 2.91 xG.

Best of luck if you follow 👍

💰 Get £40 In Free Bets! 💰

Get yourself some Friday free bets with this offer from Spreadex.

Good for player bets in the fixed odds markets and are the best bookmaker for spread betting by some margin in my opinion!

🎁 SIGN UP HERE ▶️ https://bit.ly/Spreadex40

18+. T&C's Apply. New Customer Offer

Good morning all,

A very busy Saturday ahead with 7 bets across the Premier League and Europe!

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Fulham v Man City

Fulham +2 Asian Handicap
bet365 - 17/20 - 0.5 Points

Both Teams To Score
bet365 - 3/4 - 0.5 Points

Is this a market overreaction to Fulham flying kites in training? City have beaten three teams away from home by three or more goals this season - Man United, Burnley, and Brighton. Fulham have lost just once at home by three or more, which oddly came against Brentford. They actually beat Arsenal and Spurs at home, and the scoreline of 5-1 flattered Man City in the first meeting. Fulham's attack can help them to cover this handicap, which will be playing with freedom in their last home game of the season.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Wolves v Crystal Palace
Over 2.5 Goals

bet365 - 3/4 - 1 Point

When Olise and Eze started this season, the scorelines were 4-0, 5-2, 0-1, 3-2, 3-1, 2-1, and 2-1. Palace have five wins and two losses in those games. The market isn't factoring in how much of a difference these two make to the Palace attack. Wolves also have Hwang back up front and a couple of defensive injuries. This is also a complete dead rubber with plenty of attacking quality on show.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
Over 3.5 Goals

bet365 - 5/4 - 1 Point

Chelsea have seen over 3.5 in 12 of their last 14 Premier League games. Their attack has been more clinical in the last month, with 21 goals in seven games since the start of April. Forest are fighting relegation and have a good attacking front four capable of scoring. They've scored in 11 of 12 home games against teams outside of the top six and have scored two or more in eight. Chelsea have kept just two clean sheets in 17 away and conceded two or more in 11.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 West Ham v Luton
Luton +0.5 Asian Handicap

bet365 - 21/20 - 0.5 Points

It feels like West Ham have completely given up on the season, knowing David Moyes won't be around and knocked out of Europe. They've won one of their last nine and will face a Luton side fighting for their lives at the bottom of the league. The Hatters have actually been good in this spot, with just one loss away from home against the bottom seven. West Ham have overperformed their xG all season and are a bottom six club according to our Net xG ratings.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Everton v Sheffield Utd
Sheffield Utd +1.5 Asian Handicap

bet365 - 17/20 - 0.5 Points

This is a complete dead rubber with the Blades relegated and Everton's safety secured. This is a huge handicap for Everton to cover in a regular game, but they aren't the sort of side with the attacking quality or tactical game plan to win games by a margin. They've won five games at home by more than two goals but only won two games by over 1.00 xG. The Blades have only lost two of 8 away games by two goals or more. Dyche has also said, "There might be a few changes... if we feel it's right".

🇮🇹 AC Milan v Cagliari
Over 3.0 Goal Line

bet365 - 19/20 - 1 Point

We've been backing goals in Cagliari games for the last month while they fight relegation. They've already scored against Atalanta and twice against Juventus and Inter over the past six games. Cag will be confident they can score against a Milan side with nothing to play for that has conceded three at home to Genoa and away at Sassuolo over their last four.

Best of luck if you follow 👍

Bet Builder writeups added 👍

Good morning all,

A nice bit of profit landed yesterday with all three 1 Point best bets landing. Palace look like a fantastic side at the moment, let's hope we get another favourable goal line in their final game against Villa next weekend!

On to today's action, where I've had four bets:

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Man United v Arsenal
Man United +1.5 Asian Handicap

bet365 - 20/21 - 1 Point

Manchester United may have been comfortably beaten by Palace midweek, but they've been poor away from home all season. They've only suffered one defeat at home against the top eight and have beaten Villa and Chelsea. Their only defeat came against Man City, and they recently drew 2-2 with Liverpool. The Gunners have just one win away from home against the top eight, suffering two losses and three draws in the other matches. They've kept just one clean sheet in those matches, and United have scored two in four of five against the top eight at Old Trafford.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Norwich v Leeds
Norwich +0.5 Asian Handicap

bet365 - 20/21 - 0.5 Points

Leeds have won three of nine away against the top half in the Championship, but when you dig into the underlying metrics, they lost the expected goals battle in three, which includes their 3-2 win over the Canaries. Norwich have lost two other home games against the top half, but they came without Josh Sargent. They are unbeaten in 84% of games where he starts, and without him, they've lost 48%. Leeds have also stumbled in high-pressure situations in the run-in, with losses away at QPR and Coventry and home to Blackburn.

🇪🇸 Cadiz v Getafe
Getafe +0.5 Asian Handicap

bet365 - 4/6 - 1 Point

Cadiz fighting for relegation and needing points to stay up has been over priced in the market. Getafe are unbeaten away from home against sides in the bottom six. Cadiz have won just once in their home games against sides in the bottom eight, so why are they favoured over a mid-table side? Getafe have individual quality in their side and can avoid defeat.

🇮🇹 Verona v Torino
Verona Draw No Bet

bet365 - 11/10 - 1 Point

Torino are comfortably mid-table and winless in their last five. They've already lost away at Empoli, who are battling relegation like Verona. The home side have good wins over Fiorentina and Udinese in their last two home games and see this as another good spot to pick up points in their fight for survival. These two sides have been pretty even over the past six games on net xG, so when you factor in the added motivation and home advantage 11/10 for Draw No Bet looks like a solid value bet.

Best of luck if you follow 👍