⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ On the AFU's plans in the #Nikolaev - #Berislav Direction⚡️
▪️ The AFU in recent days regrouped their troops on the #Nikolaev - #Berislav direction.
➖ A convoy of wheeled vehicles has come from #Ochakov to #Nikolaev. On the way it was joined by several trucks with ammunition and MLRS. In the city itself it was joined by dozens of armoured vehicles transferred from the northern districts of #Nikolaev Oblast.
➖ The grouping then split up and departed in two directions: one to #Bashtanka, the other to #Pribugskoye and #Galitsinovo, where strike forces are being formed.
▪️ What are the future plans of the AFU?
➖ The Ukrainian leadership must organise an offensive before the cold weather arrives. Yesterday's attack by the AFU in the #Berislav area was a reconnaissance battle to check the staten of the Russian defensive lines. The surplus of personnel so far allows the enemy not to worry about losses from such unsuccessful assaults.
➖ The concentration of forces at the #Aleksandrovska sector and at #Bashtanka, from where they can be mooved to the #Andreevkya sector, indicates that these two sectors are being prepared for an attack.
➖ And the #Berislav section is needed to divert attention from the main directions of the assault: from #Luparevo and #Pribugskoye, as well as Sukhoy Stavok and Davydov Brod with subsequent access to Novaya Kakhovka and #Kherson.
▪️ Another possible option is a completely different direction - #Zaporozhye. For more than a month Ukrainian marines have been practicing landing near #Energodar.
➖ The #Zaporozhye NPP is the most important target for the AFU before the onset of winter, and the scenario of capturing the plant has been worked out for a long time. And the grouping moved to #Bashtanka can be sent to #Zaporozhye relatively quickly.
➖ In the event of another offensive in #Kherson Oblast, it cannot be ruled out that an attack will be launched simultaneously from the #Orekhov - #Gulyaypole line with a landing at #Energodar.
➖ And an attack from the #Dudchany village could also be used to cover the landing of AFU formations on the left bank of the #Dnipro from Zolotaya Balka and #Novoalexandrovka. Besides, they have informants in that area.
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▪️ The AFU in recent days regrouped their troops on the #Nikolaev - #Berislav direction.
➖ A convoy of wheeled vehicles has come from #Ochakov to #Nikolaev. On the way it was joined by several trucks with ammunition and MLRS. In the city itself it was joined by dozens of armoured vehicles transferred from the northern districts of #Nikolaev Oblast.
➖ The grouping then split up and departed in two directions: one to #Bashtanka, the other to #Pribugskoye and #Galitsinovo, where strike forces are being formed.
▪️ What are the future plans of the AFU?
➖ The Ukrainian leadership must organise an offensive before the cold weather arrives. Yesterday's attack by the AFU in the #Berislav area was a reconnaissance battle to check the staten of the Russian defensive lines. The surplus of personnel so far allows the enemy not to worry about losses from such unsuccessful assaults.
➖ The concentration of forces at the #Aleksandrovska sector and at #Bashtanka, from where they can be mooved to the #Andreevkya sector, indicates that these two sectors are being prepared for an attack.
➖ And the #Berislav section is needed to divert attention from the main directions of the assault: from #Luparevo and #Pribugskoye, as well as Sukhoy Stavok and Davydov Brod with subsequent access to Novaya Kakhovka and #Kherson.
▪️ Another possible option is a completely different direction - #Zaporozhye. For more than a month Ukrainian marines have been practicing landing near #Energodar.
➖ The #Zaporozhye NPP is the most important target for the AFU before the onset of winter, and the scenario of capturing the plant has been worked out for a long time. And the grouping moved to #Bashtanka can be sent to #Zaporozhye relatively quickly.
➖ In the event of another offensive in #Kherson Oblast, it cannot be ruled out that an attack will be launched simultaneously from the #Orekhov - #Gulyaypole line with a landing at #Energodar.
➖ And an attack from the #Dudchany village could also be used to cover the landing of AFU formations on the left bank of the #Dnipro from Zolotaya Balka and #Novoalexandrovka. Besides, they have informants in that area.
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MAP:
AFU Grouping in Nikolaev - Krivoy Rog Direction
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Situation in the #Nikolaev - #Berislav Direction at 11:00 on 18 Oct 2022⚡️
#PosadPokrovskoye Sector:
▪️ Mutual shelling of the sides continues. The mortar battery of the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade is shelling Ternovy Pody from #Lyubomirovka, and the mortar battery of the 3rd Battalion of the 28th Mechanized Brigade from #Luparevo is shelling #Alexandrovka.
▪️ The school building in #Luparevo houses the 3rd Battalion's command and observation post, and the site is equipped with a drone launch site.
#Andreevka Sector:
▪️ The Ukrainian command is conducting reconnaissance of the Russian Forces' positions on the frontline of the #Kostromka - #Bruskinskoye defense line. Ukrainian artillery is shelling Russian positions from #Murakhovka.
▪️ Over the past 24 hours, 74 pieces of equipment were moved to the left bank of the #Ingulets River via the established crossings, while 86 pieces of equipment has been moved to repair and reconstruction.
#Berislav Area:
▪️ The AFU are preparing fot another offensive attempt in the next 24 hours. A brigade artillery group of the 60th Separate Infantry Brigade is firing disruptive fire at the #Polyanka - #Sukhanovo - #Pyatikhatki line.
▪️ A platoon of the 97th battalion of the 60th Separate Infantry Brigade has arrived in Novaya Kamenka and the 96th Battalion of the compound is expected to arrive in the morning hours.
▪️ Composite assault groups of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade are set on full readiness for an offensive near #Sukhanovo and #Polyanka.
▪️ The command of the 17th Tank Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade has moved more than a dozen tanks and armoured fighting vehicles from #Ukrainka to the vicinity of #Novogrigorovka and Novaya Kamenka.
▪️ A mortar company is deployed on the southern outskirts of Novaya Kamenka. Targeting and reconnaissance of the Russian positions is provided by the Bayraktar UAV from the vicinity of #Chervonoye.
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#PosadPokrovskoye Sector:
▪️ Mutual shelling of the sides continues. The mortar battery of the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade is shelling Ternovy Pody from #Lyubomirovka, and the mortar battery of the 3rd Battalion of the 28th Mechanized Brigade from #Luparevo is shelling #Alexandrovka.
▪️ The school building in #Luparevo houses the 3rd Battalion's command and observation post, and the site is equipped with a drone launch site.
#Andreevka Sector:
▪️ The Ukrainian command is conducting reconnaissance of the Russian Forces' positions on the frontline of the #Kostromka - #Bruskinskoye defense line. Ukrainian artillery is shelling Russian positions from #Murakhovka.
▪️ Over the past 24 hours, 74 pieces of equipment were moved to the left bank of the #Ingulets River via the established crossings, while 86 pieces of equipment has been moved to repair and reconstruction.
#Berislav Area:
▪️ The AFU are preparing fot another offensive attempt in the next 24 hours. A brigade artillery group of the 60th Separate Infantry Brigade is firing disruptive fire at the #Polyanka - #Sukhanovo - #Pyatikhatki line.
▪️ A platoon of the 97th battalion of the 60th Separate Infantry Brigade has arrived in Novaya Kamenka and the 96th Battalion of the compound is expected to arrive in the morning hours.
▪️ Composite assault groups of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade are set on full readiness for an offensive near #Sukhanovo and #Polyanka.
▪️ The command of the 17th Tank Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade has moved more than a dozen tanks and armoured fighting vehicles from #Ukrainka to the vicinity of #Novogrigorovka and Novaya Kamenka.
▪️ A mortar company is deployed on the southern outskirts of Novaya Kamenka. Targeting and reconnaissance of the Russian positions is provided by the Bayraktar UAV from the vicinity of #Chervonoye.
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MAP:
Nikolaev - Berislav Direction at 11:00 on 18 Oct 2022
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Situation in the #Nikolaev - #Berislav Direction by the End of 20 Oct 2022⚡️
#Nikolaev - #Berislav Area:
▪️ The AFU continue redeploying forces and equipment to the settlements near the line of contact. Two Osa surface-to-air missile systems are deployed near of #Luparevo and #Lymanov.
▪️ Reconnaissance drones such as Leleka-100 and Furia are active for the second day in the #Aleksandrovka sector.
▪️ Crews of self-propelled howitzers conduct harassing fire on Russian positions in Ternovye Pody, #Pravdino and #Aleksandrovka and are corrected by UAV operators.
▪️ In the #Snigirovka section, the 105th Battalion of the 63rd Mechanized Brigade of the AFU Reserve Corps shells Russian positions along the line of contact with 82mm mortars from positions in #Kvitnevy and #Kiselevka.
#Andreevka - #Berislav Sector:
▪️ The AFU is restoring the combat capability their units after the failed offensive on 19 October.
▪️ According to confirmed reports, the 28th Mechanized Brigade, 60th Separate Infantry Brigade and 17th Tank Brigade lost 90 killed and wounded in yesterday's fighting (14 fallen and 76 injured of varying severity).
▪️ The command of the 17th Tank Brigade withdrew two assault groups and surviving armoured vehicles from Novaya Kamenka to #Ukrainka to be manned with mobilised civilians.
▪️ Meanwhile, the enemy continues to prepare for another offensive on the #Sukhanovo - #Polyanka line. A combined grouping of the 60th Separate Infantry Brigade and 17th Tank Brigade of the AFU has been moved to the vicinity of #Novogrigorovka.
▪️ In addition, 70 men from the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of the AFU have arrived in #Novovoskresenskoye. The reinforcements will be part of a combined grouping for an offensive in the #Berislav area.
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#Nikolaev - #Berislav Area:
▪️ The AFU continue redeploying forces and equipment to the settlements near the line of contact. Two Osa surface-to-air missile systems are deployed near of #Luparevo and #Lymanov.
▪️ Reconnaissance drones such as Leleka-100 and Furia are active for the second day in the #Aleksandrovka sector.
▪️ Crews of self-propelled howitzers conduct harassing fire on Russian positions in Ternovye Pody, #Pravdino and #Aleksandrovka and are corrected by UAV operators.
▪️ In the #Snigirovka section, the 105th Battalion of the 63rd Mechanized Brigade of the AFU Reserve Corps shells Russian positions along the line of contact with 82mm mortars from positions in #Kvitnevy and #Kiselevka.
#Andreevka - #Berislav Sector:
▪️ The AFU is restoring the combat capability their units after the failed offensive on 19 October.
▪️ According to confirmed reports, the 28th Mechanized Brigade, 60th Separate Infantry Brigade and 17th Tank Brigade lost 90 killed and wounded in yesterday's fighting (14 fallen and 76 injured of varying severity).
▪️ The command of the 17th Tank Brigade withdrew two assault groups and surviving armoured vehicles from Novaya Kamenka to #Ukrainka to be manned with mobilised civilians.
▪️ Meanwhile, the enemy continues to prepare for another offensive on the #Sukhanovo - #Polyanka line. A combined grouping of the 60th Separate Infantry Brigade and 17th Tank Brigade of the AFU has been moved to the vicinity of #Novogrigorovka.
▪️ In addition, 70 men from the 128th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade of the AFU have arrived in #Novovoskresenskoye. The reinforcements will be part of a combined grouping for an offensive in the #Berislav area.
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MAP:
Nikolaev - Berislav Direction at the End of 20 Oct 2022
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Situation in the #Nikolaev - #Berislav Direction until 16:00 on 5 Nov 2022⚡️
🩸 The command of the United Troop Grouping 'Nikolaev' is restoring the combat capability of the troops.
In recent days, the intensity of shelling on forward positions along the line of contact has increased. It is likely that Ukrainian formations are making artillery preparations for a possible offensive.
#Nikolaev Sector:
▪️ The AFU is conducting massive mortar and artillery fire from positions in Stepovaya Dolina, #Chervonoye, #Luparevo, and #Novogrigorovka into the areas of #Aleksandrovka, #Pravdino, Ternovye Pody, #Blagodatnoye and #Vasilki.
▪️ KVSG-6 anti-drone guns were delivered to the AFU frontlines to repel Russian drones.
#Andreevka Sector:
▪️ Mutual shelling continues. The mortar battery of the 61st Separate Infantry Brigade in Sukhoy Stavok and the artillery battery of the AFU's 46th Separate Air Assault Brigade in Malaya Aleksandrovka shelled the Karlo-Marksovskoye - #Staritsa and #Sadok - #Borozenskoye line.
▪️ Retaliatory artillery fire from the Russian forces hit an AFU deployment point near Davydov Brod. The exact number of casualties is unknown.
▪️ A few hours ago, two Mi-8 helicopters transported dead and wounded (about 20 people) from Davydov Brod to #Bereznegovatoye.
#Berislav Area:
▪️ AFU militants spread information about the imminent arrival of significant reinforcements to carry out an assault on #Kherson.
▪️ Artillery crews of the 60th Separate Infantry Brigade from the #Petropavlovka position area fire indiscriminately at the Pyatikhatki - Polyanka - Dudchany South line.
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🩸 The command of the United Troop Grouping 'Nikolaev' is restoring the combat capability of the troops.
In recent days, the intensity of shelling on forward positions along the line of contact has increased. It is likely that Ukrainian formations are making artillery preparations for a possible offensive.
#Nikolaev Sector:
▪️ The AFU is conducting massive mortar and artillery fire from positions in Stepovaya Dolina, #Chervonoye, #Luparevo, and #Novogrigorovka into the areas of #Aleksandrovka, #Pravdino, Ternovye Pody, #Blagodatnoye and #Vasilki.
▪️ KVSG-6 anti-drone guns were delivered to the AFU frontlines to repel Russian drones.
#Andreevka Sector:
▪️ Mutual shelling continues. The mortar battery of the 61st Separate Infantry Brigade in Sukhoy Stavok and the artillery battery of the AFU's 46th Separate Air Assault Brigade in Malaya Aleksandrovka shelled the Karlo-Marksovskoye - #Staritsa and #Sadok - #Borozenskoye line.
▪️ Retaliatory artillery fire from the Russian forces hit an AFU deployment point near Davydov Brod. The exact number of casualties is unknown.
▪️ A few hours ago, two Mi-8 helicopters transported dead and wounded (about 20 people) from Davydov Brod to #Bereznegovatoye.
#Berislav Area:
▪️ AFU militants spread information about the imminent arrival of significant reinforcements to carry out an assault on #Kherson.
▪️ Artillery crews of the 60th Separate Infantry Brigade from the #Petropavlovka position area fire indiscriminately at the Pyatikhatki - Polyanka - Dudchany South line.
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Nikolaev - Berislav Direction at 16:00 on 5 Nov 2022
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Strengthening of the AFU Grouping near the #Dnieper⚡️
Ukrainian formations continue preparations for the spring campaign along the entire frontline. In #Kherson region, the activity of the AFU on the right bank of the #Dnieper has increased. The number of mortar shelling has increased and additional forces have been redeployed to the line of contact.
🔹What exactly is happening along the #Dnieper?
▪️ Several columns of military equipment with personnel have been observed moving from the area of Krivoy Rog to the south along the highway to #Berislav. And all this was carried out at night.
▪️ At least one S-300 SAM launcher was moved from #Bashtanka to #Snigirevka and the surrounding area. An infantry battalion on 15 armoured vehicles of unknown type was moved from #Nikolayev to #Luparevo.
▪️ In #Ochakov, near the coastline of the #Dnieper-Bug Estuary, more than 100 people and five light armored vehicles are stationed at several recreation centers.
▪️ Long-range artillery firing positions are set up along the #Dnieper River in various settlements, including #Ochakov, #Luparevo, #Kherson and #Berislav. Forced evacuation of local residents from #Stanislav to #Koblevo, west of #Ochakov, has been carried out.
▪️ In addition, a split point on the #Snigirevka-#Kherson railway line was commissioned at #Galaganovka station to increase the throughput capacity to #Kherson.
🔹 The Preparation of the AFU Assault Groups is currently being completed. Personnel and equipment are being concentrated in settlements near the line of contact, while civilians are being forcibly removed to other towns and placed in tourist camps.
According to the Ukrainian commanders, crossing the river is a necessary step for a successful offensive with a broad front, as it will allow the Russian forces on the left bank of the #Dnieper to be constrained, despite the potential losses.
The objective of the initial strike from the right bank of the #Dnieper is to divert the attention of the RF Armed Forces by using the length of the river to their advantage.
📌 In the Long Term, AFU units intend to entrench themselves in one section of the #Dnieper basin and use the bridgehead to develop a simultaneous attack on #Crimea from #Kherson and #Orekhov in #Zaporozhye region.
The most likely sites are the #Kinburn Peninsula, #Kherson and Nova Kakhovka because of convenient terrain for both manpower and equipment. That is where the engineers of the 808th Pontoon Bridge Regiment are stationed.
Given the increased activity of both Ukrainian infantry and information and psychological operations 👉 forces, an attack on Russian army positions in the #Kherson region is possible in the coming weeks. And, first and foremost, it will be aimed at creating a negative background in the run-up to Victory Day on May 9.
🇬🇧 MAP
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Ukrainian formations continue preparations for the spring campaign along the entire frontline. In #Kherson region, the activity of the AFU on the right bank of the #Dnieper has increased. The number of mortar shelling has increased and additional forces have been redeployed to the line of contact.
🔹What exactly is happening along the #Dnieper?
▪️ Several columns of military equipment with personnel have been observed moving from the area of Krivoy Rog to the south along the highway to #Berislav. And all this was carried out at night.
▪️ At least one S-300 SAM launcher was moved from #Bashtanka to #Snigirevka and the surrounding area. An infantry battalion on 15 armoured vehicles of unknown type was moved from #Nikolayev to #Luparevo.
▪️ In #Ochakov, near the coastline of the #Dnieper-Bug Estuary, more than 100 people and five light armored vehicles are stationed at several recreation centers.
▪️ Long-range artillery firing positions are set up along the #Dnieper River in various settlements, including #Ochakov, #Luparevo, #Kherson and #Berislav. Forced evacuation of local residents from #Stanislav to #Koblevo, west of #Ochakov, has been carried out.
▪️ In addition, a split point on the #Snigirevka-#Kherson railway line was commissioned at #Galaganovka station to increase the throughput capacity to #Kherson.
🔹 The Preparation of the AFU Assault Groups is currently being completed. Personnel and equipment are being concentrated in settlements near the line of contact, while civilians are being forcibly removed to other towns and placed in tourist camps.
According to the Ukrainian commanders, crossing the river is a necessary step for a successful offensive with a broad front, as it will allow the Russian forces on the left bank of the #Dnieper to be constrained, despite the potential losses.
The objective of the initial strike from the right bank of the #Dnieper is to divert the attention of the RF Armed Forces by using the length of the river to their advantage.
📌 In the Long Term, AFU units intend to entrench themselves in one section of the #Dnieper basin and use the bridgehead to develop a simultaneous attack on #Crimea from #Kherson and #Orekhov in #Zaporozhye region.
The most likely sites are the #Kinburn Peninsula, #Kherson and Nova Kakhovka because of convenient terrain for both manpower and equipment. That is where the engineers of the 808th Pontoon Bridge Regiment are stationed.
Given the increased activity of both Ukrainian infantry and information and psychological operations 👉 forces, an attack on Russian army positions in the #Kherson region is possible in the coming weeks. And, first and foremost, it will be aimed at creating a negative background in the run-up to Victory Day on May 9.
🇬🇧 MAP
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MAP:
🇷🇺⚔️ AFU Dnieper Grouping as of 16 Apr 2023