⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦📜 Boris Rozhin on Victories and Failures of the First Military Year⚡️

The military expert on stages of #SMO, LPR liberation, mistakes of the Russian army and de facto legalization of PMCs

Periodization of SMO

🔹What stages would you divide the past 10 months of SMO into?

1. From the beginning of the SMO to the withdrawal from #Kiev;
2. Late March - early May - completion of Battle for #Mariupol;
3. May-July - Liberation of the LPR;
4. August - September - AFU counteroffensive. Loss of #Izyum, successful defensive operation on the Right Bank bridgehead;
5. October - December - final formation of a position front, withdrawal from #Kherson.

Azov - Inland sea of #Russia

🔹Which victory on the front do you consider most significant?

- The defeat of the enemy in the #Severodonetsk - #Lysychansk agglomeration, which made it possible to liberate the territory of the LPR. Next in importance is the encirclement and defeat of the #Mariupol grouping of the AFU. In both battles, the enemy sustained heavy losses in manpower and equipment, losing major cities and leaving large areas behind.
In addition, the victory at #Mariupol allowed #Russia to pierce a land corridor to #Crimea and make the Sea of Azov an inland Russian sea.

Defeat at #Balakleya

🔹A similar question, but with a minus sign. Which setback made the most painful impression on you?

Defeat at #Balakleya, which resulted in the forced withdrawal from #Izyum, and the subsequent loss of Kupyansk and Krasny #Liman. This blow was warned about, but no proper measures were taken, due to which the loss of territory and considerable materiel was allowed to occur. Militarily, this is our most significant defeat in 2022.

Syriaization awaits #Ukraine

🔹Now, 10 months after the start of the SMO, can we say that we have not been sufficiently prepared for the level of military conflict that is taking place in #Ukraine?

- As events on the front line have shown, no one was fully prepared for the type of war that has started in #Ukraine. Including #Russia, which had to adapt to the type of war it had not prepared for. As pointed out back in March, the war will follow a Syrianization path, which implies extended fronts and an indefinite duration of the war with its maximum internationalisation. The problems of the Russian Federation were mainly objective in nature, which was further exacerbated by various unforced errors of an organisational and managerial nature, some of which had already been officially acknowledged in the autumn.

The success of Wagner is natural

🔹One of the main heroes of the SMO were the fighters of the Wagner PMC, which has proved to be excellent in combat operations. Was it expected, given the involvement of PMCs in the Syrian war, or it still came as some kind of surprise?

- Since we`ve been following the operations of Wagner PMCs in #Syria, #Libya and #Africa, there are no surprises about its successes. Qualitative assault work of Wagner could be observed in #Syria (for example, during the storming of #Palmyra and #Akerbat) or in #Libya during the fighting for #Tripoli. Of course, for those who have not tracked the work of Wagner in remote theater, the PMCs' success was somewhat surprising. The main outcome of this participation is the fact that PMCs have received full legalization in Russia, even in the absence of the law regulating the activities of PMCs. Not de jure, but de facto.

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