⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦📜 Boris Rozhin on Victories and Failures of the First Military Year⚡️

The military expert on stages of #SMO, LPR liberation, mistakes of the Russian army and de facto legalization of PMCs

Periodization of SMO

🔹What stages would you divide the past 10 months of SMO into?

1. From the beginning of the SMO to the withdrawal from #Kiev;
2. Late March - early May - completion of Battle for #Mariupol;
3. May-July - Liberation of the LPR;
4. August - September - AFU counteroffensive. Loss of #Izyum, successful defensive operation on the Right Bank bridgehead;
5. October - December - final formation of a position front, withdrawal from #Kherson.

Azov - Inland sea of #Russia

🔹Which victory on the front do you consider most significant?

- The defeat of the enemy in the #Severodonetsk - #Lysychansk agglomeration, which made it possible to liberate the territory of the LPR. Next in importance is the encirclement and defeat of the #Mariupol grouping of the AFU. In both battles, the enemy sustained heavy losses in manpower and equipment, losing major cities and leaving large areas behind.
In addition, the victory at #Mariupol allowed #Russia to pierce a land corridor to #Crimea and make the Sea of Azov an inland Russian sea.

Defeat at #Balakleya

🔹A similar question, but with a minus sign. Which setback made the most painful impression on you?

Defeat at #Balakleya, which resulted in the forced withdrawal from #Izyum, and the subsequent loss of Kupyansk and Krasny #Liman. This blow was warned about, but no proper measures were taken, due to which the loss of territory and considerable materiel was allowed to occur. Militarily, this is our most significant defeat in 2022.

Syriaization awaits #Ukraine

🔹Now, 10 months after the start of the SMO, can we say that we have not been sufficiently prepared for the level of military conflict that is taking place in #Ukraine?

- As events on the front line have shown, no one was fully prepared for the type of war that has started in #Ukraine. Including #Russia, which had to adapt to the type of war it had not prepared for. As pointed out back in March, the war will follow a Syrianization path, which implies extended fronts and an indefinite duration of the war with its maximum internationalisation. The problems of the Russian Federation were mainly objective in nature, which was further exacerbated by various unforced errors of an organisational and managerial nature, some of which had already been officially acknowledged in the autumn.

The success of Wagner is natural

🔹One of the main heroes of the SMO were the fighters of the Wagner PMC, which has proved to be excellent in combat operations. Was it expected, given the involvement of PMCs in the Syrian war, or it still came as some kind of surprise?

- Since we`ve been following the operations of Wagner PMCs in #Syria, #Libya and #Africa, there are no surprises about its successes. Qualitative assault work of Wagner could be observed in #Syria (for example, during the storming of #Palmyra and #Akerbat) or in #Libya during the fighting for #Tripoli. Of course, for those who have not tracked the work of Wagner in remote theater, the PMCs' success was somewhat surprising. The main outcome of this participation is the fact that PMCs have received full legalization in Russia, even in the absence of the law regulating the activities of PMCs. Not de jure, but de facto.

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🇲🇱🇷🇺 New military aid package from Russia to Mali

An official ceremony was held yesterday at the presidential pavilion at Bamako International Airport in the presence of Russian Ambassador Igor Gromyko to hand over a new batch of Russian arms to the Malian military. According to local sources, the Malian Air Force received:

➖One Su-25 attack aircraft;
➖Six L-39 combat training aircraft;
➖Two Mi-8 helicopters.

The commander of the Malian air force, General Alou boy Diarra has rightly described the Russian equipment received as "an unprecedented modernization of the Malian forces". Apparently, the latest batch of military assistance was the largest since the beginning of cooperation between Mali and Russia.

Thus, since October 2021, the Malian military has received a total of four Mi-17 helicopters, four Mi-35 helicopters, two Mi-8 helicopters, ten L-39 combat training aircraft and five Su-25 units. Against the background of France, which refuses to supply its satellites with the necessary equipment, Russia looks a more serious and reliable military ally for the African countries.

#Africa #Mali #Russia
@rybar

⚡️🇺🇸🇺🇦💸 Smuggling from #Ukraine of Weapons supplied by the West to the AFU⚡️

A few days ago, colleagues from the Telegram Channel ANNA NEWS wondered where some of the weapons supplied by Western states to the AFU go. According to the story, the Ukrainian government is writing off oversized types of weapons under the pretext of combat operations and high consumption of all the property.

The process is overseen by Kirill Budanov, head of Ukraine's main intelligence directorate, and assisted by the head of the #Odessa regional administration, Maxim Marchenko, who was recently removed from his post.

🔹Why #Odessa?

The city hosts a major port whose infrastructure allows the passage of large flows of cargo ships. There is virtually no control over the goods carried on the ships, thanks to the grain deal concluded last year, which was safely extended a few days ago.

Various cargoes supplied by the West are brought into #Odessa port completely unhindered through Bulgarian and Romanian seaports, as well as directly in transit through the Bosporus and Dardanelles straits. This is also how smuggling out of #Odessa takes place.

🔹Where is Everything going?

Some of the weapons do go to #Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia and Southeast Asia. However, separatist and terrorist groups operating in the regions can hardly afford to buy even a sufficient number of assault rifles.

Therefore, the main flows of smuggling go to criminal organisations and radical national diasporas in #Europe. They are the most solvent customers due to their participation in various black market activities.

🔹Why Europe?

American foreign policy and position in the #Ukraine conflict is not only to weaken #Russia, but also to implement the total impoverishment of European states in order to further their total subjugation to their will.

Since the start of the #SMO, #Europe has been hit by a serious economic and energy crisis, prompting many large businesses and companies to move their infrastructure and financial flows to the safer states.

All #EU countries are now effectively left behind, as the sanctions imposed on #Russia have done more damage to the #EU itself and forced it to surrender completely to the control of US policy.

The outflow of weapons into the hands of criminal elements or ethnic diasporas in #Europe, who run the "back end" of the economy, allows the creation of well-equipped cells in European states, which are bound to be used under certain circumstances. Arms smuggling also leads to increased criminality and sets the stage for businesses to leave #Europe.

🔹 So the Americans are involved in Smuggling?

The illegal sale of the supplied weapons by the Ukrainian authorities could not be organized without assistance or a go-ahead from Washington. If it were not for the leaked evidence of what is happening, no one would have paid attention to it.

The conflict in #Ukraine created favourable conditions for the organisation of alternative supply routes for various criminal and extremist groups operating in different regions of the world. First and foremost, in Europe itself.

The flourishing corruption at the top of the Ukrainian government, together with the "war will pay for everything" principle, has eliminated any possibility of actual control over the activities of the Ukrainian authorities in the use of military aid for its intended purpose.

And this most smuggled weapon with ammunition in the future will begin to suddenly pop up exactly where the US will need to artificially create an escalation.

📜 Rybar

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🇷🇺🌍📄 Russia made an emphasis on Africa in its Foreign Policy Concept

Russian President Vladimir Putin approved a new version of the Foreign Policy Concept. In it Russia for the first time made an emphasis on Africa.

Despite the fact that the media constantly discussed the topic of Russia's active participation in African affairs, previously this direction was not a priority for the country. The main actor was Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner PMC.

▪️However, the tide has turned. As the relations between the Western world and Russia heated up, the latter is looking for new directions, and Africa, given its rich history of cooperation with the Soviet Union, is now one of the key vectors.

🔻This document provides some insights, and the way it is put into practice needs to be monitored.

In a new concept "some developed states" (meaning the USA and European countries) are accused "of the sophisticated neo-colonial policies towards Africa".

▪️Russia intends to "support in ensuring the independence of the states through assistance in the areas of security, including food and energy security, military and military-technical cooperation".

Adding to that, Russia will provide an "assistance in settling and overcoming the consequences of armed conflicts in Africa advocating the leading role of African States in these efforts, based on their formulation of the principle "African problems - African solution"".

▪️The document puts an emphasis on "expanding trade and investment with African states and African integration structures (primarily the African Continental Free Trade Area, the African Export-Import Bank and other sub-regional organizations), including through the EAEU".

▪️Russia points out "the strengthening and deepening of Russian-African cooperation in various fields on a bilateral and multilateral basis, first of all within the framework of the African Union and the Russia-Africa Partnership Forum".

🔻Previously, Africa was delegated much smaller space in Foreign Policy Concepts and in the Foreign Policy overall.

However, now Russia shows that Africa is one of the most important regions, and Russia will do everything in its power to strengthen the influence on the continent.

#Russia #Africa

@africaintel

⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸 US Response on the permanent AFU Whining⚡️

💬 "#Ukraine has received over 600 types of weapons for the counteroffensive. This is more than any army in the world has", said Colonel Martin O'Donnell, the speaker of the US Armed Forces Command in #Europe and #Africa.

It is very similar to a hint to the Ukrainian leadership that it is enough in the public field to whine about the lack of something and justify the lack of offensive activity of the AFU at the front.

📜 Callsign Bruce; 11 May 2023, 10:05

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🇬🇧🌍 How Great Britain tries to recreate its colonial empire in Africa

Russian channel Rybar analyzed the British expansion into Africa.

The most interesting part of the material lies in the current state of Great Britain’s policies towards African continent and how it tried to maintain position after the disband of colonial empire.

▪️In the middle of 20th century British government after the pressure from the US decided to change its format of interaction with the newly formed states. Despite granting them formal independence, Great Britain replaced direct control with an indirect one.

Most of the former colonies did not have any national industries or skilled workers to develop them. Trying to gain something by selling resources was also destined to fail, since the international market was already divided between developed states.

The most logical way for local leaders in this dire situation was to ask its former colonizer and British companies for a help to win some place under the sun. Thus newly formed countries sold themselves to UK and were forced to play by its rules in hopes of gaining access to the international market and develop somehow.

▪️The main British interest in African countries lies in mining, mineral extraction and financial services, since the continent is viewed as a source of raw materials. Thus 88% of all Great Britain’s investments in the region lie in these spheres. Other fields that African really need to improve, like communication and agriculture, are overlooked.

▪️Moreover, Britain maintains a military presence on the territory of about 40 countries of Africa. The UK government justifies its presence by training African personnel, peacekeeping missions and the fight against terrorism.

But all this activity, for the most part, exists only on paper, and the situation of fragmentation and terrorism has not improved at all during the time British "peacekeepers" have been on the continent.

▪️The situation to this day doesn't look so good. Dependence on Britain persists. However, with the rise of other foreign players in the end of 20th and beginning of 21st centuries, Africa can see some improvements.

#UK #Africa

@africaintel @rybar