β‘οΈπ·πΊπΊπ¦βοΈ Battle for #Kherson: Situation at Posad-Pokrovskoye at 11:00 on 14 Oct 2022β‘οΈ
βͺοΈ The Ukrainian command is preparing for an offensive on Ternovye Pody and #Pravdino. The forces of the BTGr of the AFUΒ΄s 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade are concentrated in the #Galitsinovo - #Lymany area.
βͺοΈ During the night, a large convoy of armoured vehicles and trucks with ammunition passed through the Korabelny district of #Nikolaev, heading towards the front line.
βͺοΈ During the night, AFU reconnaissance teams used drones to reconnoitre positions of Russian forces in the Ternovye Pody area. Russian soldiers shot down five Leleka-100 and Furiya UAVs.
βͺοΈ AFU army aviation helicopters fired several volleys of unguided missiles at Russian positions.
βͺοΈ It is very likely that the Ukrainian command will conduct an offensive in two areas at the same time, in the Ternovye Pody and #Pravdino areas. In case an assault near #Bashtanka fails, two more BTGr reserves are in reserve.
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βͺοΈ The Ukrainian command is preparing for an offensive on Ternovye Pody and #Pravdino. The forces of the BTGr of the AFUΒ΄s 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade are concentrated in the #Galitsinovo - #Lymany area.
βͺοΈ During the night, a large convoy of armoured vehicles and trucks with ammunition passed through the Korabelny district of #Nikolaev, heading towards the front line.
βͺοΈ During the night, AFU reconnaissance teams used drones to reconnoitre positions of Russian forces in the Ternovye Pody area. Russian soldiers shot down five Leleka-100 and Furiya UAVs.
βͺοΈ AFU army aviation helicopters fired several volleys of unguided missiles at Russian positions.
βͺοΈ It is very likely that the Ukrainian command will conduct an offensive in two areas at the same time, in the Ternovye Pody and #Pravdino areas. In case an assault near #Bashtanka fails, two more BTGr reserves are in reserve.
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Posad-Pokrovskoye at 11:00 on 14 Oct 2022
β‘οΈπ·πΊπΊπ¦βοΈ On the AFU's plans in the #Nikolaev - #Berislav Directionβ‘οΈ
βͺοΈ The AFU in recent days regrouped their troops on the #Nikolaev - #Berislav direction.
β A convoy of wheeled vehicles has come from #Ochakov to #Nikolaev. On the way it was joined by several trucks with ammunition and MLRS. In the city itself it was joined by dozens of armoured vehicles transferred from the northern districts of #Nikolaev Oblast.
β The grouping then split up and departed in two directions: one to #Bashtanka, the other to #Pribugskoye and #Galitsinovo, where strike forces are being formed.
βͺοΈ What are the future plans of the AFU?
β The Ukrainian leadership must organise an offensive before the cold weather arrives. Yesterday's attack by the AFU in the #Berislav area was a reconnaissance battle to check the staten of the Russian defensive lines. The surplus of personnel so far allows the enemy not to worry about losses from such unsuccessful assaults.
β The concentration of forces at the #Aleksandrovska sector and at #Bashtanka, from where they can be mooved to the #Andreevkya sector, indicates that these two sectors are being prepared for an attack.
β And the #Berislav section is needed to divert attention from the main directions of the assault: from #Luparevo and #Pribugskoye, as well as Sukhoy Stavok and Davydov Brod with subsequent access to Novaya Kakhovka and #Kherson.
βͺοΈ Another possible option is a completely different direction - #Zaporozhye. For more than a month Ukrainian marines have been practicing landing near #Energodar.
β The #Zaporozhye NPP is the most important target for the AFU before the onset of winter, and the scenario of capturing the plant has been worked out for a long time. And the grouping moved to #Bashtanka can be sent to #Zaporozhye relatively quickly.
β In the event of another offensive in #Kherson Oblast, it cannot be ruled out that an attack will be launched simultaneously from the #Orekhov - #Gulyaypole line with a landing at #Energodar.
β And an attack from the #Dudchany village could also be used to cover the landing of AFU formations on the left bank of the #Dnipro from Zolotaya Balka and #Novoalexandrovka. Besides, they have informants in that area.
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βͺοΈ The AFU in recent days regrouped their troops on the #Nikolaev - #Berislav direction.
β A convoy of wheeled vehicles has come from #Ochakov to #Nikolaev. On the way it was joined by several trucks with ammunition and MLRS. In the city itself it was joined by dozens of armoured vehicles transferred from the northern districts of #Nikolaev Oblast.
β The grouping then split up and departed in two directions: one to #Bashtanka, the other to #Pribugskoye and #Galitsinovo, where strike forces are being formed.
βͺοΈ What are the future plans of the AFU?
β The Ukrainian leadership must organise an offensive before the cold weather arrives. Yesterday's attack by the AFU in the #Berislav area was a reconnaissance battle to check the staten of the Russian defensive lines. The surplus of personnel so far allows the enemy not to worry about losses from such unsuccessful assaults.
β The concentration of forces at the #Aleksandrovska sector and at #Bashtanka, from where they can be mooved to the #Andreevkya sector, indicates that these two sectors are being prepared for an attack.
β And the #Berislav section is needed to divert attention from the main directions of the assault: from #Luparevo and #Pribugskoye, as well as Sukhoy Stavok and Davydov Brod with subsequent access to Novaya Kakhovka and #Kherson.
βͺοΈ Another possible option is a completely different direction - #Zaporozhye. For more than a month Ukrainian marines have been practicing landing near #Energodar.
β The #Zaporozhye NPP is the most important target for the AFU before the onset of winter, and the scenario of capturing the plant has been worked out for a long time. And the grouping moved to #Bashtanka can be sent to #Zaporozhye relatively quickly.
β In the event of another offensive in #Kherson Oblast, it cannot be ruled out that an attack will be launched simultaneously from the #Orekhov - #Gulyaypole line with a landing at #Energodar.
β And an attack from the #Dudchany village could also be used to cover the landing of AFU formations on the left bank of the #Dnipro from Zolotaya Balka and #Novoalexandrovka. Besides, they have informants in that area.
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AFU Grouping in Nikolaev - Krivoy Rog Direction
β‘οΈπ·πΊπΊπ¦βοΈ Chronicle of the Special Military Operation for 15-16 Oct 2022β‘οΈ
#RussianFederation Territories:
βͺοΈ During the day, the AFU shelled #Belgorod again. Most targets were intercepted by air defenses, but there were two explosions near #Belgorod airport. At least three civilians were injured.
#Starobelsk Direction:
βͺοΈ In the #Kupyansk area, Ukrainian forces are engaged in positional fighting on the #Kislovka - #Pershotravnevoye line.
βͺοΈ The artillery of the Russian Forces hit mobile groups of the 92nd AFU Brigade, which were preparing to advance to the front line near #Dvurechnaya. As a result, the enemy suffered significant losses and was forced to abandon its planned reconnaissance battle.
βͺοΈ In the #Lyman - #Svatovo sector, Ukrainian formations are moving personnel and armoured vehicles to the #Torskoye - #Terny line.
#Soledar Direction:
βͺοΈ There are no significant changes on the front line, the Wagner PMC troops are fighting fiercely in #Soledar and the south-eastern districts of #Bakhmut (#Artemovsk). The enemy regularly counterattacks in both towns. Artillery is working on the accumulations of Ukrainian formations.
βͺοΈ Wagner PMC units continue to fight fiercely for #Opytnoye. In the north-east, neat vicinity of #Belogorovka, the front is held by units of the LPR PeopleΒ΄s Militia.
#Donetsk Direction:
βͺοΈ Ukrainian formations once again shelled the civilian infrastructure of the #Donetsk agglomeration, including the #Donetsk city administration building in Voroshilovsky district. There are casualties among the civilian population.
#Zaporozhye Direction:
βͺοΈ Russian Forces continue to conduct positional fighting near #Vremevka and #Neskuchnoye. AFU units made two attempts to storm the heights west of the villages, but retreated both times with heavy losses.
βͺοΈ Russian Forces personnel engaged targets in #Zaporozhye and #Orekhov, as well as enemy concentrations along the entire line of contact.
#Nikolaev - #Berislav Direction on Southern Front (MAP):
βͺοΈ In the #Berislav area, Ukrainian formations attempted an unsuccessful offensive against the Russian defences on the #Dudchany - #Mylovoye - #Novogrigorovka line on the morning of 15 October.
βͺοΈ In the #Nikolaev sector, the AFU command continues regrouping troops for another offensive against the positions of the Russian Forces.
Ukrainian forces are forming two combat groups. One near #Bashtanka and the other in the #Prybugskoye and #Galitsynovo areas.
βͺοΈ Ukrainian formations may launch a renewed offensive in the #Berislav and #Aleksandrovka areas in the near future. At the same time, the option of moving forces to the #Zaporozhye sector is not excluded.
βͺοΈ Failures and significant losses of AFU units in this sector of the front have a negative impact on the moral and psychological state of soldiers and lead to reduction in the combat effectiveness of enemy forces.
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#RussianFederation Territories:
βͺοΈ During the day, the AFU shelled #Belgorod again. Most targets were intercepted by air defenses, but there were two explosions near #Belgorod airport. At least three civilians were injured.
#Starobelsk Direction:
βͺοΈ In the #Kupyansk area, Ukrainian forces are engaged in positional fighting on the #Kislovka - #Pershotravnevoye line.
βͺοΈ The artillery of the Russian Forces hit mobile groups of the 92nd AFU Brigade, which were preparing to advance to the front line near #Dvurechnaya. As a result, the enemy suffered significant losses and was forced to abandon its planned reconnaissance battle.
βͺοΈ In the #Lyman - #Svatovo sector, Ukrainian formations are moving personnel and armoured vehicles to the #Torskoye - #Terny line.
#Soledar Direction:
βͺοΈ There are no significant changes on the front line, the Wagner PMC troops are fighting fiercely in #Soledar and the south-eastern districts of #Bakhmut (#Artemovsk). The enemy regularly counterattacks in both towns. Artillery is working on the accumulations of Ukrainian formations.
βͺοΈ Wagner PMC units continue to fight fiercely for #Opytnoye. In the north-east, neat vicinity of #Belogorovka, the front is held by units of the LPR PeopleΒ΄s Militia.
#Donetsk Direction:
βͺοΈ Ukrainian formations once again shelled the civilian infrastructure of the #Donetsk agglomeration, including the #Donetsk city administration building in Voroshilovsky district. There are casualties among the civilian population.
#Zaporozhye Direction:
βͺοΈ Russian Forces continue to conduct positional fighting near #Vremevka and #Neskuchnoye. AFU units made two attempts to storm the heights west of the villages, but retreated both times with heavy losses.
βͺοΈ Russian Forces personnel engaged targets in #Zaporozhye and #Orekhov, as well as enemy concentrations along the entire line of contact.
#Nikolaev - #Berislav Direction on Southern Front (MAP):
βͺοΈ In the #Berislav area, Ukrainian formations attempted an unsuccessful offensive against the Russian defences on the #Dudchany - #Mylovoye - #Novogrigorovka line on the morning of 15 October.
βͺοΈ In the #Nikolaev sector, the AFU command continues regrouping troops for another offensive against the positions of the Russian Forces.
Ukrainian forces are forming two combat groups. One near #Bashtanka and the other in the #Prybugskoye and #Galitsynovo areas.
βͺοΈ Ukrainian formations may launch a renewed offensive in the #Berislav and #Aleksandrovka areas in the near future. At the same time, the option of moving forces to the #Zaporozhye sector is not excluded.
βͺοΈ Failures and significant losses of AFU units in this sector of the front have a negative impact on the moral and psychological state of soldiers and lead to reduction in the combat effectiveness of enemy forces.
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SMO Chronicle for 15-16 Oct 2022
β‘οΈπ·πΊπΊπ¦π― About the next Strike of the RF Armed Forces on #Berislavβ‘οΈ
π Yesterday (12 Apr 2023), Russian aircraft carried out another strike on a facility in #Berislav. According to the Ukrainian occupation authorities, one of the local enterprises had been damaged during the raid.
We were able to determine from the images that appeared on the web that the target of the attack was warehouses on Central Street near the Priority-1 scrap metal selling point.
Coordinates:
At the same time, the enemy's activity in the #Kherson and #Berislav areas has increased in recent days - columns of military equipment were heading towards the #Dnieper River from #Nikolayev, #Bashtanka and #KrivoyRog.
π Ukrainian Formations are preparing for an offensive, during which attempts at local attacks in the #Kherson direction with a crossing of the #Dnieper are inevitable. According to some reports, the command of the AFU group is concentrating its forces at the Golaya Pristan - #Kherson - Novaya Kakhovka line.
High Resolution: π¬π§ MAP; π·πΊ MAP
π RYBAR
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π Yesterday (12 Apr 2023), Russian aircraft carried out another strike on a facility in #Berislav. According to the Ukrainian occupation authorities, one of the local enterprises had been damaged during the raid.
We were able to determine from the images that appeared on the web that the target of the attack was warehouses on Central Street near the Priority-1 scrap metal selling point.
Coordinates:
46.83289588946823, 33.39457205133063
The use of industrial facilities to store weapons, military equipment, ammunition and fuel is a common practice for Ukrainian formations. It appears that a Russian Aerospace Forces strike has hit just one of the AFU deployment sites.At the same time, the enemy's activity in the #Kherson and #Berislav areas has increased in recent days - columns of military equipment were heading towards the #Dnieper River from #Nikolayev, #Bashtanka and #KrivoyRog.
π Ukrainian Formations are preparing for an offensive, during which attempts at local attacks in the #Kherson direction with a crossing of the #Dnieper are inevitable. According to some reports, the command of the AFU group is concentrating its forces at the Golaya Pristan - #Kherson - Novaya Kakhovka line.
High Resolution: π¬π§ MAP; π·πΊ MAP
π RYBAR
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β‘οΈπ·πΊπΊπ¦βοΈ Strengthening of the AFU Grouping near the #Dnieperβ‘οΈ
Ukrainian formations continue preparations for the spring campaign along the entire frontline. In #Kherson region, the activity of the AFU on the right bank of the #Dnieper has increased. The number of mortar shelling has increased and additional forces have been redeployed to the line of contact.
πΉWhat exactly is happening along the #Dnieper?
βͺοΈ Several columns of military equipment with personnel have been observed moving from the area of Krivoy Rog to the south along the highway to #Berislav. And all this was carried out at night.
βͺοΈ At least one S-300 SAM launcher was moved from #Bashtanka to #Snigirevka and the surrounding area. An infantry battalion on 15 armoured vehicles of unknown type was moved from #Nikolayev to #Luparevo.
βͺοΈ In #Ochakov, near the coastline of the #Dnieper-Bug Estuary, more than 100 people and five light armored vehicles are stationed at several recreation centers.
βͺοΈ Long-range artillery firing positions are set up along the #Dnieper River in various settlements, including #Ochakov, #Luparevo, #Kherson and #Berislav. Forced evacuation of local residents from #Stanislav to #Koblevo, west of #Ochakov, has been carried out.
βͺοΈ In addition, a split point on the #Snigirevka-#Kherson railway line was commissioned at #Galaganovka station to increase the throughput capacity to #Kherson.
πΉ The Preparation of the AFU Assault Groups is currently being completed. Personnel and equipment are being concentrated in settlements near the line of contact, while civilians are being forcibly removed to other towns and placed in tourist camps.
According to the Ukrainian commanders, crossing the river is a necessary step for a successful offensive with a broad front, as it will allow the Russian forces on the left bank of the #Dnieper to be constrained, despite the potential losses.
The objective of the initial strike from the right bank of the #Dnieper is to divert the attention of the RF Armed Forces by using the length of the river to their advantage.
π In the Long Term, AFU units intend to entrench themselves in one section of the #Dnieper basin and use the bridgehead to develop a simultaneous attack on #Crimea from #Kherson and #Orekhov in #Zaporozhye region.
The most likely sites are the #Kinburn Peninsula, #Kherson and Nova Kakhovka because of convenient terrain for both manpower and equipment. That is where the engineers of the 808th Pontoon Bridge Regiment are stationed.
Given the increased activity of both Ukrainian infantry and information and psychological operations π forces, an attack on Russian army positions in the #Kherson region is possible in the coming weeks. And, first and foremost, it will be aimed at creating a negative background in the run-up to Victory Day on May 9.
π¬π§ MAP
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Ukrainian formations continue preparations for the spring campaign along the entire frontline. In #Kherson region, the activity of the AFU on the right bank of the #Dnieper has increased. The number of mortar shelling has increased and additional forces have been redeployed to the line of contact.
πΉWhat exactly is happening along the #Dnieper?
βͺοΈ Several columns of military equipment with personnel have been observed moving from the area of Krivoy Rog to the south along the highway to #Berislav. And all this was carried out at night.
βͺοΈ At least one S-300 SAM launcher was moved from #Bashtanka to #Snigirevka and the surrounding area. An infantry battalion on 15 armoured vehicles of unknown type was moved from #Nikolayev to #Luparevo.
βͺοΈ In #Ochakov, near the coastline of the #Dnieper-Bug Estuary, more than 100 people and five light armored vehicles are stationed at several recreation centers.
βͺοΈ Long-range artillery firing positions are set up along the #Dnieper River in various settlements, including #Ochakov, #Luparevo, #Kherson and #Berislav. Forced evacuation of local residents from #Stanislav to #Koblevo, west of #Ochakov, has been carried out.
βͺοΈ In addition, a split point on the #Snigirevka-#Kherson railway line was commissioned at #Galaganovka station to increase the throughput capacity to #Kherson.
πΉ The Preparation of the AFU Assault Groups is currently being completed. Personnel and equipment are being concentrated in settlements near the line of contact, while civilians are being forcibly removed to other towns and placed in tourist camps.
According to the Ukrainian commanders, crossing the river is a necessary step for a successful offensive with a broad front, as it will allow the Russian forces on the left bank of the #Dnieper to be constrained, despite the potential losses.
The objective of the initial strike from the right bank of the #Dnieper is to divert the attention of the RF Armed Forces by using the length of the river to their advantage.
π In the Long Term, AFU units intend to entrench themselves in one section of the #Dnieper basin and use the bridgehead to develop a simultaneous attack on #Crimea from #Kherson and #Orekhov in #Zaporozhye region.
The most likely sites are the #Kinburn Peninsula, #Kherson and Nova Kakhovka because of convenient terrain for both manpower and equipment. That is where the engineers of the 808th Pontoon Bridge Regiment are stationed.
Given the increased activity of both Ukrainian infantry and information and psychological operations π forces, an attack on Russian army positions in the #Kherson region is possible in the coming weeks. And, first and foremost, it will be aimed at creating a negative background in the run-up to Victory Day on May 9.
π¬π§ MAP
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π·πΊβοΈ AFU Dnieper Grouping as of 16 Apr 2023
β‘οΈπ·πΊπΊπ¦βοΈ In #Kherson Direction the AFU is forming a Strike Group for Operations on the Left #Dnieper Bankβ‘οΈ
πΉ While the main activity on the #Dnieper is concentrated in the island zone, where AFU tactical groups are entrenched on Kazatsky Island, marines are arriving in the #Kherson and #Nikolayev regions.
βͺοΈ On 24 and 25 September, another convoy of the 37th and 38th Separate Marines Brigades, which had previously operated in the #Vremyevka sector, passed westward through #Dnepropetrovsk.
βͺοΈ 190 units of equipment are also moving there, including 13 Kirpi AFVs, 25 Husky AFVs, 10 Mastiff AFV, 7 Hummer AFVs, one M777 howitzer and one Stormer SAM, as well as about 13,000 militants (Marines alone exceed 8,000).
βͺοΈ Some personnel and tracked vehicles have already deployed in the areas of #Vysokoye, #Ponyatovka and #Nikolskoye and have begun to interact with the Territorial Defence Brigades operating near the #Dnieper.
βͺοΈ The rest of the Ukrainian Navy's units remain in the second line for the time being. To cover them from strikes, IRIS-T SAM positioning areas are equipped in Krutoy Yar and #Bashtanka.
βοΈThis group was sent to the destination for a reason. Now they are trying to secure a bridgehead on the islands with Territorial Defence forces, while more trained and equipped Marines are in reserve.
βͺοΈ The focus on #Kazatsky Island may indicate the intention to land on the #Dnepryany - Novaya Kakhovka border and continue moving inland directly towards #Crimea, with air and artillery support, which in recent days have been trying to hit rear facilities in the #Kherson region.
π However, such a sortie is suicidal. More likely the AFU will simultaneously try to attack from the direction of #Ochakov. And if we add the regular landing sorties towards #Crimea, the current marines transfer is may be linked to the planned largescale operation in the south.
πΊ High Resolution: π¬π§ MAP; π·πΊ MAP
π RYBAR; 26 Sep 2023, 22:06
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πΉ While the main activity on the #Dnieper is concentrated in the island zone, where AFU tactical groups are entrenched on Kazatsky Island, marines are arriving in the #Kherson and #Nikolayev regions.
βͺοΈ On 24 and 25 September, another convoy of the 37th and 38th Separate Marines Brigades, which had previously operated in the #Vremyevka sector, passed westward through #Dnepropetrovsk.
βͺοΈ 190 units of equipment are also moving there, including 13 Kirpi AFVs, 25 Husky AFVs, 10 Mastiff AFV, 7 Hummer AFVs, one M777 howitzer and one Stormer SAM, as well as about 13,000 militants (Marines alone exceed 8,000).
βͺοΈ Some personnel and tracked vehicles have already deployed in the areas of #Vysokoye, #Ponyatovka and #Nikolskoye and have begun to interact with the Territorial Defence Brigades operating near the #Dnieper.
βͺοΈ The rest of the Ukrainian Navy's units remain in the second line for the time being. To cover them from strikes, IRIS-T SAM positioning areas are equipped in Krutoy Yar and #Bashtanka.
βοΈThis group was sent to the destination for a reason. Now they are trying to secure a bridgehead on the islands with Territorial Defence forces, while more trained and equipped Marines are in reserve.
βͺοΈ The focus on #Kazatsky Island may indicate the intention to land on the #Dnepryany - Novaya Kakhovka border and continue moving inland directly towards #Crimea, with air and artillery support, which in recent days have been trying to hit rear facilities in the #Kherson region.
π However, such a sortie is suicidal. More likely the AFU will simultaneously try to attack from the direction of #Ochakov. And if we add the regular landing sorties towards #Crimea, the current marines transfer is may be linked to the planned largescale operation in the south.
πΊ High Resolution: π¬π§ MAP; π·πΊ MAP
π RYBAR; 26 Sep 2023, 22:06
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