⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar's Analysis: The State of #Ukraine's Energy System after 2 Months of Systematic Strikes⚡️
On 10 Oct, the RF Forces launched the first massive strike on #Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The state after two months of strikes.
♦️Where was the Hit?
At the end of Nov, a cumulative effect worked. Limited strikes in certain regions began to lead to nationwide blackouts.
The main target was the distribution grid rather than generation facilities. Three-phase 330/110 kV autotransformers and single-phase 750/330 kV autotransformers were knocked out in substations.
High-voltage circuit breakers, line disconnectors, current and voltage transformers were incidentally affected.
In some rare cases, general control stations (GCPs) and TPPs were hit.
♦️Was the Fire Attack really systemic?
Despite the seeming strangeness, the strikes can be roughly divided into five logically interrelated stages:
▪️ Stage 1: strikes on nodal high-voltage substations.
✅ Ability to analyse the consequences for the entire system and the time taken to recover.
▪️ Stage 2: strikes on substations in major cities and the Ukrenergo building to limit dispatch control.
✅ Temporary difficulties and introduction of rolling blackout schedules.
▪️ Stage 3: isolation of the three remaining NPPs from the country's power system.
✅ The Khmelnitsky NPP and one unit of the Rivne NPP have been shut down in an emergency. The centre and west were left without power supply. Shutdown schedules have been tightened.
▪️ Stage 4: strikes on switchgear of large power plants and power plants themselves, repeated strikes on node substations.
✅ Temporary collapse of the power system, acute shortage of electricity generation. Import of electricity from #Poland and #Romania. Constant unscheduled emergency outages.
▪️ Stage 5: methodical knocking out of the remaining substations and PPs that are pulling the power supply to consumers across the country.
✅ It is continuing now. The results can be seen in the strikes on #Odessa, #Kiev and #Sumy. Similar things are happening in #Lvov and #Dnipropetrovsk regions.
♦️Okay, but everything can be restored, right?
Ukraine has run out of reserves, its own production in #Zaporozhye stopped long ago.
Despite the PR actions with the transfer of secondary equipment, no one can actually supply high-voltage autotransformers now (except for a few from #Lithuania and possibly #Bulgaria and #Romania).
Even if the European industry refocuses on #Ukraine's needs, the first unit deliveries will have to wait at least six months.
♦️So there is a complete collapse in #Ukraine right now?
Not exactly.
Measures are being taken now to protect the most important points. Barriers are being built at the surviving sites. Air defence is being built up.
♦️So the Power Grid is partially intact?
Alas, yes.
The restoration work is being carried out because of incomprehensible humanism on the part of the RF Forces. If the strikes were not on the power equipment, but on the control posts, there would be nothing to restore.
A strike on the control room with the destruction of the building would render the substation inoperable. In addition, #Ukraine needs to be deprived of the ability to generate electricity.
♦️What is the practical effect now?
The idea of moving the country to separate "islands" fed by the nearest power station is being discussed. The damage has reduced the manageability of the power system and is causing numerous accidents.
#Moldova has been affected, as the main PPs are in #Transnistria.
The option of importing electricity from #Europe and bringing in floating Turkish PPs is being considered.
🩸But the point of no return has already been passed?
Yes, the energy system is still capable of supplying critical industries and rail transport. But the further it goes, the more things go wrong.
That is why the strikes have to continue!
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On 10 Oct, the RF Forces launched the first massive strike on #Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The state after two months of strikes.
♦️Where was the Hit?
At the end of Nov, a cumulative effect worked. Limited strikes in certain regions began to lead to nationwide blackouts.
The main target was the distribution grid rather than generation facilities. Three-phase 330/110 kV autotransformers and single-phase 750/330 kV autotransformers were knocked out in substations.
High-voltage circuit breakers, line disconnectors, current and voltage transformers were incidentally affected.
In some rare cases, general control stations (GCPs) and TPPs were hit.
♦️Was the Fire Attack really systemic?
Despite the seeming strangeness, the strikes can be roughly divided into five logically interrelated stages:
▪️ Stage 1: strikes on nodal high-voltage substations.
✅ Ability to analyse the consequences for the entire system and the time taken to recover.
▪️ Stage 2: strikes on substations in major cities and the Ukrenergo building to limit dispatch control.
✅ Temporary difficulties and introduction of rolling blackout schedules.
▪️ Stage 3: isolation of the three remaining NPPs from the country's power system.
✅ The Khmelnitsky NPP and one unit of the Rivne NPP have been shut down in an emergency. The centre and west were left without power supply. Shutdown schedules have been tightened.
▪️ Stage 4: strikes on switchgear of large power plants and power plants themselves, repeated strikes on node substations.
✅ Temporary collapse of the power system, acute shortage of electricity generation. Import of electricity from #Poland and #Romania. Constant unscheduled emergency outages.
▪️ Stage 5: methodical knocking out of the remaining substations and PPs that are pulling the power supply to consumers across the country.
✅ It is continuing now. The results can be seen in the strikes on #Odessa, #Kiev and #Sumy. Similar things are happening in #Lvov and #Dnipropetrovsk regions.
♦️Okay, but everything can be restored, right?
Ukraine has run out of reserves, its own production in #Zaporozhye stopped long ago.
Despite the PR actions with the transfer of secondary equipment, no one can actually supply high-voltage autotransformers now (except for a few from #Lithuania and possibly #Bulgaria and #Romania).
Even if the European industry refocuses on #Ukraine's needs, the first unit deliveries will have to wait at least six months.
♦️So there is a complete collapse in #Ukraine right now?
Not exactly.
Measures are being taken now to protect the most important points. Barriers are being built at the surviving sites. Air defence is being built up.
♦️So the Power Grid is partially intact?
Alas, yes.
The restoration work is being carried out because of incomprehensible humanism on the part of the RF Forces. If the strikes were not on the power equipment, but on the control posts, there would be nothing to restore.
A strike on the control room with the destruction of the building would render the substation inoperable. In addition, #Ukraine needs to be deprived of the ability to generate electricity.
♦️What is the practical effect now?
The idea of moving the country to separate "islands" fed by the nearest power station is being discussed. The damage has reduced the manageability of the power system and is causing numerous accidents.
#Moldova has been affected, as the main PPs are in #Transnistria.
The option of importing electricity from #Europe and bringing in floating Turkish PPs is being considered.
🩸But the point of no return has already been passed?
Yes, the energy system is still capable of supplying critical industries and rail transport. But the further it goes, the more things go wrong.
That is why the strikes have to continue!
t.me/sitreports /@rybar/#ene/
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Рыбарь
🇺🇦💡 В каком состоянии энергетическая система Украины спустя 2 месяцев систематических ударов — разбор Рыбаря
10 октября ВС РФ нанесли первый массированный удар по объектам энергетической инфраструктуры Украины. Команда Рыбаря объясняет, в каком состоянии…
10 октября ВС РФ нанесли первый массированный удар по объектам энергетической инфраструктуры Украины. Команда Рыбаря объясняет, в каком состоянии…
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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🇧🇬 In #Bulgaria, He drew the Symbol Z in Front of the Embassy of #Ukraine⚡️
🇺🇦 Representatives of the embassy tried to force the symbol to be erased, but the local police stood up for him.
📜 Military Correspondent Lisitsyn; 9 Jul 2023, 15:39
🎬 Video with 🇬🇧 English Subs
⚠️ I prepared the video for yesterday, but could not post.
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📜 Military Correspondent Lisitsyn; 9 Jul 2023, 15:39
🎬 Video with 🇬🇧 English Subs
⚠️ I prepared the video for yesterday, but could not post.
t.me/sitreports /@evgeniy_lisitsyn/#vid/
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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚓️ How the AFU attacked #Russia's Black Sea Fleet Ships⚡️
🗓 During the night, Ukrainian boats again attacked warships of the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet northeast of the Bosporus Strait, which were escorting a Russian tanker travelling from the Mediterranean Sea.
🔹 This attack was carefully planned just in time for the tanker's passage through the Bosporus. In the afternoon, a group of uncrewed boats under control of Portuguese-made Tekever AR5 UAVs from #Vilkovo Airfield left the mouth of the #Danube River.
▪️ They took up positions in the waiting area south of #Zmeinoye. Closer to midnight, an R-8A anti-submarine aircraft began operating off the coast of #Romania, tracking the movements of the patrol ships Vasily Bykov and Sergey Kotov.
🕑 After 02:00 on 1 August, one of the boats attempted to strike the board of the "Sergey Kotov", bypassing the ship from the side of the Turkish coast. The drone was detected by a visual observation post and hit with a machine gun.
🕔 Closer to 05:00, two more drones attacked the "Vasily Bykov" half an hour apart, but the appearance of the drones was also detected, after which they were destroyed. From midnight, 200 kilometres east of #Bulgaria, a US MQ-9A Reaper UAV was targeting BSF ships.
▪️ To counter it, a Su-30SM fighter aircraft of the Black Sea Fleet's naval aviation was taken into the air, but the Reaper immediately flew to the Kympiya-Turziy airbase, covered by a civilian aircraft. In its place flew the RQ-4D Phoenix, which monitored the Russian sailors' actions.
📌 In this situation, it is important to realise that attacks on Russian Navy warships will continue unabated. After the strikes on #Odessa, the AFU moved the launching areas of both marine and flying drones to the south - to #Vilkovo, #Reni, and #Izmail. And #NATO reconnaissance aviation provides guidance and targeting.
📜 RYBAR; 1 Aug 2023, 19:32
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🗓 During the night, Ukrainian boats again attacked warships of the Russian Navy's Black Sea Fleet northeast of the Bosporus Strait, which were escorting a Russian tanker travelling from the Mediterranean Sea.
🔹 This attack was carefully planned just in time for the tanker's passage through the Bosporus. In the afternoon, a group of uncrewed boats under control of Portuguese-made Tekever AR5 UAVs from #Vilkovo Airfield left the mouth of the #Danube River.
▪️ They took up positions in the waiting area south of #Zmeinoye. Closer to midnight, an R-8A anti-submarine aircraft began operating off the coast of #Romania, tracking the movements of the patrol ships Vasily Bykov and Sergey Kotov.
🕑 After 02:00 on 1 August, one of the boats attempted to strike the board of the "Sergey Kotov", bypassing the ship from the side of the Turkish coast. The drone was detected by a visual observation post and hit with a machine gun.
🕔 Closer to 05:00, two more drones attacked the "Vasily Bykov" half an hour apart, but the appearance of the drones was also detected, after which they were destroyed. From midnight, 200 kilometres east of #Bulgaria, a US MQ-9A Reaper UAV was targeting BSF ships.
▪️ To counter it, a Su-30SM fighter aircraft of the Black Sea Fleet's naval aviation was taken into the air, but the Reaper immediately flew to the Kympiya-Turziy airbase, covered by a civilian aircraft. In its place flew the RQ-4D Phoenix, which monitored the Russian sailors' actions.
📌 In this situation, it is important to realise that attacks on Russian Navy warships will continue unabated. After the strikes on #Odessa, the AFU moved the launching areas of both marine and flying drones to the south - to #Vilkovo, #Reni, and #Izmail. And #NATO reconnaissance aviation provides guidance and targeting.
📜 RYBAR; 1 Aug 2023, 19:32
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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸 On Increasing Ammunition Production in the US⚡️
💬 The Financial Times reports that officials in the US are actively working on increasing the production of 155 mm ammunition, including with a view to supplying it to #Ukraine.
📈 By 2025, the Americans plan to increase the production of shells for M777 howitzers to 90,000 rounds per month.
🇨🇦 For this purpose, defence plants in the Canadian province of #Ontario are being re-equipped and new workshops are being built in the state of #Texas. Similar complexes will be built in the states of Iowa, #Arkansas and #Kansas.
🇷🇴 In addition, the US administration has concluded agreements on the supply of 155-mm shells to the AFU with #Bulgaria and the Republic of Korea, and is currently conducting relevant negotiations with the leadership of #Japan.
❗️In the described situation, it is disconcerting that the already existing production facilities in the US produce only 24 thousand rounds of ammunition per month, that's about 100 rounds per hour when working in one shift for 8 hours. This is not enough even for a modest defence plant with convey lines. Only by the decision to introduce a second shift can the output be increased to 40,000 without the need to set up new plants.
📌 However, the remark would be true if the West did not pursue the goal of spending as much money as possible, including on the construction of additional infrastructure under the pretext of the Ukrainian conflict. Not to mention that at the current intensity of the artillery battle, the amount of ammunition produced is literally enough for a few days.
🗺 High Resolution: 🇬🇧 MAP; 🇷🇺 MAP
📜 RYBAR; 3 Aug 2023, 14:38
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💬 The Financial Times reports that officials in the US are actively working on increasing the production of 155 mm ammunition, including with a view to supplying it to #Ukraine.
📈 By 2025, the Americans plan to increase the production of shells for M777 howitzers to 90,000 rounds per month.
🇨🇦 For this purpose, defence plants in the Canadian province of #Ontario are being re-equipped and new workshops are being built in the state of #Texas. Similar complexes will be built in the states of Iowa, #Arkansas and #Kansas.
🇷🇴 In addition, the US administration has concluded agreements on the supply of 155-mm shells to the AFU with #Bulgaria and the Republic of Korea, and is currently conducting relevant negotiations with the leadership of #Japan.
❗️In the described situation, it is disconcerting that the already existing production facilities in the US produce only 24 thousand rounds of ammunition per month, that's about 100 rounds per hour when working in one shift for 8 hours. This is not enough even for a modest defence plant with convey lines. Only by the decision to introduce a second shift can the output be increased to 40,000 without the need to set up new plants.
📌 However, the remark would be true if the West did not pursue the goal of spending as much money as possible, including on the construction of additional infrastructure under the pretext of the Ukrainian conflict. Not to mention that at the current intensity of the artillery battle, the amount of ammunition produced is literally enough for a few days.
🗺 High Resolution: 🇬🇧 MAP; 🇷🇺 MAP
📜 RYBAR; 3 Aug 2023, 14:38
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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🛳 Speaking of the new Route for Ship Movement from #Ukraine⚡️
🗓 Now, at least six ships are travelling in the direction of various ports in the Mediterranean Sea, from #Haifa to #Alexandria, according to data from the Marine Traffic Service.
🇺🇸 And the intelligence attention of the #US and #NATO Air Forces is fully focused on controlling this corridor. One R-8A, three MQ-9A Reapers and one E-3A UAV patrolled over the mouth of the #Danube and the coastline of #Romania and #Bulgaria.
▪️ That's not counting the RQ-4Bs and RQ-4Ds that have been monitoring the situation off the coast of Krasnodar Kray all today, apparently tracking Black Sea Fleet activity and the fire in the port of #Novorossiysk.
❗️The new route on the example of Joseph Schulte is quite workable. Vessels sail along territorial waters, and in the event of the approach of the Russian fleet, they can easily enter the ports of #Constanta, #Varna and #Burgas, not really worrying about possible inspections.
▪️ It is possible to prevent this. However, the capabilities of the Navy are very limited for several objective reasons, from gross mistakes in the construction of the fleet in the pre-war period to the irrational use of forces and means. And, unfortunately, there is no progress on many organizational issues at all.
📌 At the same time, the free movement of ships to #Ukraine and back creates additional threats to Russian harbors and ships. Especially given that #NATO intelligence is working without interruption, and the AFU are intensively preparing for attacks, which they want to coincide with the Independence Day on 24 August.
🗺 High Resolution: 🇬🇧 MAP; 🇷🇺 MAP
📜 RYBAR; 18 Aug 2023, 22:37
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🗓 Now, at least six ships are travelling in the direction of various ports in the Mediterranean Sea, from #Haifa to #Alexandria, according to data from the Marine Traffic Service.
▪️ That's not counting the RQ-4Bs and RQ-4Ds that have been monitoring the situation off the coast of Krasnodar Kray all today, apparently tracking Black Sea Fleet activity and the fire in the port of #Novorossiysk.
❗️The new route on the example of Joseph Schulte is quite workable. Vessels sail along territorial waters, and in the event of the approach of the Russian fleet, they can easily enter the ports of #Constanta, #Varna and #Burgas, not really worrying about possible inspections.
▪️ It is possible to prevent this. However, the capabilities of the Navy are very limited for several objective reasons, from gross mistakes in the construction of the fleet in the pre-war period to the irrational use of forces and means. And, unfortunately, there is no progress on many organizational issues at all.
📌 At the same time, the free movement of ships to #Ukraine and back creates additional threats to Russian harbors and ships. Especially given that #NATO intelligence is working without interruption, and the AFU are intensively preparing for attacks, which they want to coincide with the Independence Day on 24 August.
🗺 High Resolution: 🇬🇧 MAP; 🇷🇺 MAP
📜 RYBAR; 18 Aug 2023, 22:37
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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦🇧🇬 On the Drone in #Bulgaria⚡️
🚀 The discovery of an unidentified drone on the shore of the Black Sea near the village of Tyulenevo was the main topic in the Bulgarian media today. An 82 mm mine was also artisanally attached to the hull of the UAV, and its identity (as stated by the Bulgarians) is unknown.
🔎 However, when looking at the shape of the drone, its fuselage and wingspan, one can see similarities with the Ukrainian-made Dovbush T10 drone. Such UAVs filled with explosives were used during strikes on #Belgorod.
📌 Apparently, the drone landed on the Bulgarian coast from the #Crimea. In recent weeks, the AFU began using UAVs of various types to attack the peninsula, and the Dovbush was most likely suppressed by electronic warfare equipment during one of the raids and fell into the water.
🗺 High Resolution: 🇷🇺 MAP
📜 RYBAR; 18 Sep 2023, 16:35
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🔎 However, when looking at the shape of the drone, its fuselage and wingspan, one can see similarities with the Ukrainian-made Dovbush T10 drone. Such UAVs filled with explosives were used during strikes on #Belgorod.
📌 Apparently, the drone landed on the Bulgarian coast from the #Crimea. In recent weeks, the AFU began using UAVs of various types to attack the peninsula, and the Dovbush was most likely suppressed by electronic warfare equipment during one of the raids and fell into the water.
🗺 High Resolution: 🇷🇺 MAP
📜 RYBAR; 18 Sep 2023, 16:35
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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Special Operation, 4 Dec 2023, Main; pub. 19:01⚡️
▪️ According to the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD), Kiev has lost up to 805 militants killed and wounded in different directions over the past day;
▪️ Russian Su-35 destroyed an AFU radar station in the Svatov direction, MoD said;
▪️ The #LPR detained an Ukrainian spy who was collecting data on the locations of military and equipment, and a case of espionage was opened, the regional FSB Directorate told RIA Novosti;
▪️ The AFU attacked an oil depot in #Lugansk using a drone on Monday night, the military commandant's office told RIA Novosti;
▪️ National Security and Defence Council Secretary Danilov admitted that #Ukraine is now engaged in a "positional fight" with #Russia and cannot gain an advantage;
▪️ Russian economy has adapted to the conditions of the SMO and is providing a regime for its continuation, Peskov said;
▪️ The President of #Bulgaria vetoed the provision of a batch of 100 used armored personnel carriers to #Ukraine;
▪️ Zelensky communicates with some AFU commanders bypassing commander-in-chief Zaluzhny, which prevents the latter from commanding the entire army, Ukrainian media reported.
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🇷🇺⚔️ RIA - Special Operation - Situation on 4 December 2023
⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦⚔️ Special Operation, 16 Dec 2023, Main; pub. 21:47⚡️
▪️ The Russian Armed Forces repelled 16 Ukrainian attacks, destroyed a tank, a Mi-8 helicopter and an ammunition depot, Kiev's losses amounted to up to 630 militants, the Russian Ministry of Defence (MoD) said in its report;
▪️ A massive drone strike on #Crimea was repelled on Saturday, with a total of 49 drones shot down in the course of the day, MoD said;
▪️ Kiev fired 22 MLRS rockets and 33 shells of 155 millimetre calibre at #Donetsk, #Makeyevka and #Gorlovka, the #DPR Representative Office in the JCCC said;
▪️ Six Ukrainian border guards surrendered on the #Kursk region border, Governor Starovoyt said;
▪️ The Turkish Defence Minister said that an agreement to establish a working group on mine countermeasures in the Black Sea is planned to be signed with #Bulgaria and #Romania on 11 January;
▪️ Western media: Zelensky privately told EU leaders that it was more important for him to get consent not for additional funding, but for the start of negotiations on Ukraine’s membership.
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🇷🇺⚔️ RIA - Special Operation - Situation on 16 December 2023