Scorpi18 | Market Insights
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Insights and analysis of the global financial market by investment advisor Sergio Shalamov.

Note: This is not an investment advice.

Chat for investors: https://t.me/+lLbjdcohKhc5MDBi

Contact: @invoyager

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βš οΈπŸ›’#oil #forecast #opinion
Doomberg, a well-known critic of the energy transition and renewable energy, claims that the world is entering an era of hydrocarbon oversupply = the price of oil (in terms of gold) will only decrease in the long run.
✴️#BTC #etf
SEC has indeed approved a spot Bitcoin ETF.
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Arthur Hayes anticipates a Bitcoin correction of 20-30% from any level it attains by early March #opinion
⚠️#us #economy #tax #opinion
A high-tax era awaits us in the US. A huge national debt and high interest rates make it unprofitable to continue financing budget spending through borrowing. The only option is to raise taxes.

However, experts do not rule out the scenario of "money printing", but in that case the US could repeat the 2008 crisis scenario or trigger uncontrollable inflation #printingmoney #inflation
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*among developed countries, the U.S. has the smallest tax-to-GDP ratio = 28% (compared to Germany = 39%, France = 46%)
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #opinion
BofA sees the current U.S. stock cyclical bull trend potentially extending until 2033, based on insights from past bull cycles.
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #opinion #warning #bubble
JPMorgan quantitative strategists: the dominance of the 10 biggest stocks in US equity markets is increasingly drawing similarities with the dot-com bubble, raising the risk of a selloff
❗️#stocks #us #opinion
S&P 500 would have to climb another 25% to reach dot-com-era 'irrational exuberance' β€” SocGen
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #tech #bonds #opinion #history #warning #bubble
analysts at Bank of America (BofA) have concluded that the ongoing growth of the "magnificent seven" stocks since 2022 could be halted by an increase in the real yield of 10-year government bonds to 2.5-3%. Currently, the real yield stands at 2%, representing the difference between the yields of 10-year government bonds and inflation.
βœ΄οΈπŸŒ•#BTC #gold #mining #costprice
JP Morgan: Bitcoin < Bitcoin mining cost = Bullish signal

#opinion Bitcoin is often regarded as the new gold. If this assertion holds true, its price-to-mining-cost ratio should be similar to that of gold, which is approximately 1.5
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡ΈπŸ›’#gas #lng #us #forecast
over the next 10 years, US will significantly increase its LNG export capacity.
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#opinion in the long term, demand and prices for natural gas in the US are expected to rise due to increased LNG exports to Europe and Asia.

More and more experts are predicting a rise in U.S. gas prices.

US natural gas prices are at historical lows.

πŸ’₯#SJT
Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
πŸͺ™#silver #macro #history
silver mining stocks/gold mining stocks ratio = historical low

#etf #opinion If the price of silver rises above $30 (chart), we could see a substantial increase in the Global X Silver Miners ETF (#SIL), which is focused on silver miners. At its peak in 2011, when silver traded around $50, the #SIL was at $94. With the current price around $34, there is significant potential for bullish movement, provided that silver continues its upward trend.
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#inflation #us #opinion
Kenneth Rogoff (who predicted the 2008 financial crisis ): another bout of inflation could occur sooner than markets expect β€” read more
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the current inflation dynamics in the US closely resemble those of the 1970s.

the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s (chart)
🌎#economy #weather #macro
BBG: the average global temperature continues to rise. Extreme heat wreaks havoc across many parts of the global economy.

#opinion some experts believe that the rise in temperature has nothing to do with human activity, but is simply a cyclical change in nature.
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#inflation extreme temperatures are posing significant challenges for farmers, and the weather's impact could result in prolonged higher food inflation - details

#coal efforts to restrict global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius are failing β€œacross the board” β€” and major shifts will be required to create meaningful change, including a much faster move away from using coal to generate electricity - details
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#economy #markets #us #election #warning
after the assassination attempt on Trump, the odds of his victory skyrocketed.
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#opinion Trump's promise of tariffs and deportations could pop the stock market bubble if he wins a 2nd term β€” Capital Economics

Trump’s policies would trigger a recession by mid-2025 β€” FT

Trumponomics would not be as bad as most expect β€” Economist

here’s a rundown of some of Trump’s proposals β€” read more
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #opinion
SocGen: history shows that extremely concentrated markets tend to precede crashes, as occurred during the run-up to the 2007- 2008 global financial crisis and the 2022 bear market. There is no reason why this time would be any different β€” read more
β—οΈπŸ‡¨πŸ‡³#china #savings #macro #opinion
SocGen: Chinese household savings exceed the country's annual GDP β€” read more

... if China were an open market economy, its capital markets would be the biggest in the world β€” FT

#stocks Chinese household savings have accumulated to twice the capitalization of the entire Chinese stock market. Sooner or later, these savings will flow into the domestic stock market, which is denominated in yuan.
✴️#BTC #mining #costprice
the average cost of mining bitcoin among the largest publicly traded mining companies has fallen to $49,500 β€” CoinShares
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#opinion Bitcoin is often regarded as the new gold. If this assertion holds true, its price-to-mining-cost ratio should be similar to that of gold, which is approximately 1.5 (chart)