⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #forecast #history
Shiller ratio (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) is now more expensive than it has been 97% of the time since 1880. Money manager AQR calculates that real stock returns over the 10 years following a 90th decile reading have averaged just 0.5%.
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historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).
Shiller ratio (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) is now more expensive than it has been 97% of the time since 1880. Money manager AQR calculates that real stock returns over the 10 years following a 90th decile reading have averaged just 0.5%.
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historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).
🇺🇸#stocks #us #history #seasonality
historically, September is the weakest month for the S&P 500.
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historically, European stocks have shown poor performance during the summer months (chart).
historically, September is the weakest month for the S&P 500.
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historically, European stocks have shown poor performance during the summer months (chart).
⚠️🇺🇸#inflation #us #macro
BofA: current US inflation dynamics are very similar to those of 1967-1985.
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the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s.
Kenneth Rogoff (who predicted the 2008 financial crisis ): another bout of inflation could occur sooner than markets expect — read more
BofA: current US inflation dynamics are very similar to those of 1967-1985.
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the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s.
Kenneth Rogoff (who predicted the 2008 financial crisis ): another bout of inflation could occur sooner than markets expect — read more
🇺🇸#economy #us #recession
JPMorgan: US recession probability < 30%
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Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a US recession (chart).
Inverted yield curve signals start of US recession (chart).
JPMorgan: US recession probability < 30%
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Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a US recession (chart).
Inverted yield curve signals start of US recession (chart).
⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #us #warning #history
JPMorgan: historically, when the S&P 500 had a high valuation based on the Forward P/E ratio, market returns over the following five years were typically close to zero.
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historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).
JPMorgan: historically, when the S&P 500 had a high valuation based on the Forward P/E ratio, market returns over the following five years were typically close to zero.
—————————————
historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).