Scorpi18 | Market Insights
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Insights and analysis of the global financial market by investment advisor Sergio Shalamov.

Note: This is not an investment advice.

Chat for investors: https://t.me/+lLbjdcohKhc5MDBi

Contact: @invoyager

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βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #forecast #history
Shiller ratio (cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio) is now more expensive than it has been 97% of the time since 1880. Money manager AQR calculates that real stock returns over the 10 years following a 90th decile reading have averaged just 0.5%.
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historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #history #seasonality
historically, September is the weakest month for the S&P 500.
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historically, European stocks have shown poor performance during the summer months (chart).
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#inflation #us #macro
BofA: current US inflation dynamics are very similar to those of 1967-1985.
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the Fed's greatest fear is the resurgence of inflation, akin to the 1970s.

Kenneth Rogoff (who predicted the 2008 financial crisis ): another bout of inflation could occur sooner than markets expect β€” read more
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#election #us #history
who will be next president of US? Harris leads Trump.
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US stock market performs better under a Democratic president than under a Republican president (chart).

Factor in control of Congress, however, and the performance patterns shift.
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #bubble #history
"Euphoriameter” indicator (it's the average of forward P/E, risk, and investors sentiment) = new all-time highs.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#economy #us #recession
JPMorgan: US recession probability < 30%
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Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a US recession (chart).

Inverted yield curve signals start of US recession (chart).
Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #historty #warning
i3Invest: the last three times the S&P 500 crossed below its 52-week moving average after a significant uptrend, the S&P 500 experienced significant declines. This crossover is happening again.
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#stocks #us #warning #history
JPMorgan: historically, when the S&P 500 had a high valuation based on the Forward P/E ratio, market returns over the following five years were typically close to zero.
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historical data since 1871 suggests that when the Shiller ratio exceeds 34, the real return of the S&P 500 over the following 10 years tends to be zero (chart).
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#election #stocks #us
Barclays: top-10 stocks that could benefit from a Trump or Harris victory in the upcoming presidential election.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#commodity #us #stocks
S&P 500 Energy sector is extremely oversold.