Scorpi18 | Market Insights
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Insights and analysis of the global financial market by investment advisor Sergio Shalamov.

Note: This is not an investment advice.

Contact: @invoyager

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βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#us #economy #recession #monetarypolicy #history #macro
Fed rate, the number of news mentioning a "soft landing" of the U.S. economy, and the number of soft landings and recessions ...

historically, an increased frequency of mentions of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy has almost always been observed before the onset of a recession. Nevertheless, there have been instances when the Fed successfully achieved a "soft landing" for the economy
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#debt #us #economy
US national debt - the biggest threat to the global economy. Nearly $34T, and $1T a year to service it, threatens to destabilize the global financial system.
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earlier: US debt will become unsustainable and trigger default in about 20 years
⚠️#us #economy #tax #opinion
A high-tax era awaits us in the US. A huge national debt and high interest rates make it unprofitable to continue financing budget spending through borrowing. The only option is to raise taxes.

However, experts do not rule out the scenario of "money printing", but in that case the US could repeat the 2008 crisis scenario or trigger uncontrollable inflation #printingmoney #inflation
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*among developed countries, the U.S. has the smallest tax-to-GDP ratio = 28% (compared to Germany = 39%, France = 46%)
βš οΈπŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ#economy #germany #europe
Germany’s days as an industrial superpower are coming to an end. Since 2017, a negative trend has been evident: investments are declining, companies are downsizing, and some are even closing production facilities. This negative trend has accelerated in the last two years. The reasons lie in the decline of competitiveness, bureaucracy and the energy crisis β€” BBG
βš οΈπŸ‡©πŸ‡ͺ#recession #economy #germany
the probability of a recession in Germany in the next 12 months is increasing
Forwarded from Scorpi18 | Investment Adviser
βš οΈπŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#economy #us #savings #macro
in the US, net saving (as a percentage of gross national income) has fallen into negative territory = the last time this happened was during the onset of the pandemic and the 2008 crisis.

* net saving indicates the amount of income remaining for households, corporations, and the government after accounting for current consumption and capital depreciation.
🌎#economy #worldtrade #macro
Morgan: world trade is slowing down amid increasing trade restrictions.
πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ#economy #us #recession #macro
Ned Davis Research: the probability of US recession is close to zero β€” research
🌍#economy #africa #china
the economic influence of China on Africa continues to grow.