Raicher
Atualização #Indicador 7 Fases do #PiCycle.
Aproveitei e reajustei a posição dos números.
Vejam como estamos imitando a fase 4 Perfeitamente com esse dip Sub-média Inferior (Flechas Azuis).
Será que estamos caminhando para a fase 5, com rompimento da linha Verde (PiCycle #Bottom Average) e em seguida testaremos a resistência da média Superior?
#log
#ATH@TutorialBTC
Atualização #Indicador 7 Fases do #PiCycle.
Aproveitei e reajustei a posição dos números.
Vejam como estamos imitando a fase 4 Perfeitamente com esse dip Sub-média Inferior (Flechas Azuis).
Será que estamos caminhando para a fase 5, com rompimento da linha Verde (PiCycle #Bottom Average) e em seguida testaremos a resistência da média Superior?
#log
Por fim, numerei cada fase do comportamento do preço durante o PiCycle.
1 - Fundo abaixo da média Inferior
2 - Teste na média Superior acima da linha verde (fake out)
3 - Dip abaixo da média inferior (desespero)
4 - 2ª tentativa de ganhar a linha Verde (fake out)
5 - Ganhamos a linha Verde
6 - Ganhamos a média Superior
7 - PiCycle Top
Atualmente estamos na fase 4 tentando ganhar a linha Verde para subir pra fase 5. Não sei quando vamos chegar nela, nem quando vamos para a fase 6 e 7.
Temos um espaço enorme entre a média Inferior e Superior do PiCycle Top (58%), sugerindo que o topo ainda está LONGE daqui. #ATH@TutorialBTC
CryptoCon JAN/15/2026
Bitcoin data is clear, 80k was not a "#bear market #bottom."
The same traps that were set up in the last bear market for #FOMO investors are being put out in this one with different labels.
>> Rota Hodler
Bitcoin data is clear, 80k was not a "#bear market #bottom."
The same traps that were set up in the last bear market for #FOMO investors are being put out in this one with different labels.
>> Rota Hodler
CryptoCon #Cycle #4Years JAN/16/2026
If you're waiting on the downfall of the #Halving Cycles #Theory, good luck to you!
Here's HCT reinforced with #Fibonacci zones. All major moves this cycle came in their expected time frames.
Here are the time windows for the upcoming cycle:
👍 Cycle #Bottom: November 2026 - January 2027
First Early Top: June - July 2027
Second Early Top: April - August 2028
First Cycle Top: January - June 2029
Cycle Top: October - December 2029
PS. Focus: #BCA (#DCA) fixed (D, W or M) + #BuyTheDip #Support SMA200.
⚡️ REVIEW
If you're waiting on the downfall of the #Halving Cycles #Theory, good luck to you!
Here's HCT reinforced with #Fibonacci zones. All major moves this cycle came in their expected time frames.
Here are the time windows for the upcoming cycle:
👍 Cycle #Bottom: November 2026 - January 2027
First Early Top: June - July 2027
Second Early Top: April - August 2028
First Cycle Top: January - June 2029
Cycle Top: October - December 2029
PS. Focus: #BCA (#DCA) fixed (D, W or M) + #BuyTheDip #Support SMA200.
⚡️ REVIEW
⚠️Bitcoin has already fallen -37% from its all-time high.
This does not signal a market bottom, according to this metric.
In every major cycle, Bitcoin experienced much deeper drawdowns before the bearish phase was completed.
📉 Historical drawdowns:
2011: -93%
2013–2015: -85%
2017–2018: -84%
2021–2022: -75%
📌 Historically, a -37% move represents only the early stage of the contraction phase.
As the market matures, drawdowns tend to become less severe — which is positive —
but they never disappear.
Statistically most likely zone for the #cycle #bottom (10/2025 - 10/2026)
➡️ -60% to -70%.
👇👇
>> F/F
This does not signal a market bottom, according to this metric.
In every major cycle, Bitcoin experienced much deeper drawdowns before the bearish phase was completed.
📉 Historical drawdowns:
2011: -93%
2013–2015: -85%
2017–2018: -84%
2021–2022: -75%
📌 Historically, a -37% move represents only the early stage of the contraction phase.
As the market matures, drawdowns tend to become less severe — which is positive —
but they never disappear.
Statistically most likely zone for the #cycle #bottom (10/2025 - 10/2026)
➡️ -60% to -70%.
👇👇
>> F/F
CryptoCon JUN/15/2026
#Calendar The collective consensus amongst crypto X seems to be that the #cycle #bottom is in. That alone gets me pretty disinterested in looking for the low here.
Of course, the bear market according to the Havling Cycles Theory is not over until November 2026 - January 2027.
It is no surprise that "this time is different" is coming back up. This time, the plausible story is data interpretation.
A potential bullish divergence is forming on Weekly RSI, just like November 2022. Some metrics are bottoming out. From my perspective, most have not.
So, I will once again take the contrarian position during this bounce and say the cycle bottom is not in.
The opportunity I'm looking for is the trifecta of psychology, data positioning, and cycle position.
#Calendar The collective consensus amongst crypto X seems to be that the #cycle #bottom is in. That alone gets me pretty disinterested in looking for the low here.
Of course, the bear market according to the Havling Cycles Theory is not over until November 2026 - January 2027.
It is no surprise that "this time is different" is coming back up. This time, the plausible story is data interpretation.
A potential bullish divergence is forming on Weekly RSI, just like November 2022. Some metrics are bottoming out. From my perspective, most have not.
So, I will once again take the contrarian position during this bounce and say the cycle bottom is not in.
The opportunity I'm looking for is the trifecta of psychology, data positioning, and cycle position.
#ATL $40K - $42K
China’s Top Bitcoin Miner Suggests #ArthurHayes Is Right About BTC #Bottom
https://beincrypto.com/china-miner-bitcoin-bottom-arthur-hayes/
PS. ETFs USA $38K - $49K JAN/2024
China’s Top Bitcoin Miner Suggests #ArthurHayes Is Right About BTC #Bottom
https://beincrypto.com/china-miner-bitcoin-bottom-arthur-hayes/
PS. ETFs USA $38K - $49K JAN/2024
BeInCrypto
China’s Top Bitcoin Miner Suggests Arthur Hayes Is Right About BTC Bottom
China's best-known miner sees a $42,000 Bitcoin bottom by late 2026, echoing Arthur Hayes' call for a $40,000 floor.
Joao Wedson
#BearMarket According to on-chain data, Bitcoin has not yet confirmed a price #bottom.
Even so, many analysts, especially those relying on traditional market models, are already treating the bottom as established.
In my view, a price recovery alone does not confirm a structural shift.
We still need to see clearer signs of capitulation, deleveraging, and renewed capital inflows from short-term investors.
The market may be building a bottom. But claiming that the bottom is already in requires stronger evidence.
Data confirms. Narratives anticipate.
>> F/F
#BearMarket According to on-chain data, Bitcoin has not yet confirmed a price #bottom.
Even so, many analysts, especially those relying on traditional market models, are already treating the bottom as established.
In my view, a price recovery alone does not confirm a structural shift.
We still need to see clearer signs of capitulation, deleveraging, and renewed capital inflows from short-term investors.
The market may be building a bottom. But claiming that the bottom is already in requires stronger evidence.
Data confirms. Narratives anticipate.
>> F/F
CryptoCon
SOPR still says this is not good enough for the #cycle #bottom. The pattern looks spot on for mid-to-late #bear market activity.
Many people are waiting for the exact 1 year mark from the cycle top to buy in October, but again, the Halving Cycles Theory bottom range doesn't start until November.
The bear market that lasted for almost a year and two months (2014 at 410 days) is most times conveniently left out of "bear markets are always one year"
Personally, I think paitence for better prices is just worth it.
High Loss on SOPR marked the exact cycle bottom in two cycles, and the low before the cycle bottom in September 2014.
SOPR still says this is not good enough for the #cycle #bottom. The pattern looks spot on for mid-to-late #bear market activity.
Many people are waiting for the exact 1 year mark from the cycle top to buy in October, but again, the Halving Cycles Theory bottom range doesn't start until November.
The bear market that lasted for almost a year and two months (2014 at 410 days) is most times conveniently left out of "bear markets are always one year"
Personally, I think paitence for better prices is just worth it.
High Loss on SOPR marked the exact cycle bottom in two cycles, and the low before the cycle bottom in September 2014.