In a nutshell, after torching its credibility with years of yield-curve control, the BOJ’s long-overdue rate hike is less a policy pivot than a cosmetic fix—fully priced, and unlikely to stop higher JGB yields or a weaker yen.

The Macro Butler just snagged an extra seat at Piggo’s Trading Desk to unpack the “inflation is over” fairy tale and serve up some spicy predictions for the Year of the Fire Horse.

Grab your coffee—this one’s going to be a wild ride!

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-piggos-trading-desk-ba9

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In a masterclass of Orwellian courage, EU leaders bravely decided not to “steal” Russian assets but instead heroically loan €90 billion of EU taxpayers’ money to Ukraine—money that will, of course, never be repaid—funded by fresh joint debt, while frozen Russian assets sit untouched, leaders declare victory, and Europe reassures itself that shifting the bill from Moscow to its own citizens is somehow a triumph of principle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJZEAxnk-iQ

Despite holiday cheer and year-end discounts doing their best sales pitch, US consumers remained unimpressed: December sentiment rose, but only just, staying stuck in the “everything is still too expensive” zone. The Michigan index crept up to 52.9—below expectations—with current conditions hitting a fresh low as shoppers decided big-ticket items are a hard “no.” Inflation expectations eased a bit, but between pricey groceries, shaky job confidence, and wallets still on strike, consumers aren’t feeling festive—they’re feeling frugal.

In a nutshell, holiday discounts tried their charm, but US consumers shrugged—sentiment barely budged as high prices, job anxiety, and wallet fatigue kept the festive mood firmly off the shopping list.

This is 1 of 10 bold financial forecasts from The Macro Butler—and it’s just the appetizer.

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🌐 Once sold as safe, bonds have quietly become the riskiest asset to own—until the Educated Yet Idiots run the world. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/bonds-from-risk-free-to-riskiest

When trust in public institutions is run by Educated Yet Idiots, even “risk-free” bonds start playing with matches 🔥—and in Japan, that means 10-year JGB yields heading north of 4% in the Year of the Fire Horse.

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As gunboat diplomacy sails back into fashion, the U.S. Treasury quietly floated $69 billion of 2-year paper. It cleared at a 3.499% yield—1 bp higher than last month’s 3.489%—and politely tailed the when-issued by 0.3 bps, the chunkiest short-end tail since April’s 0.6 bps. Not a disaster, but a reminder that after a year of auctions stopping through, buyers are no longer saluting quite as crisply.

The bid-to-cover slipped to 2.543, down from November’s healthier 2.684 and the weakest showing since September—also below the six-auction average of 2.623. The internals didn’t help the mood: Indirects showed up late and light at 53.21% (their worst since March 2023), while Directs did more of the heavy lifting at 34.05%. The result? Dealers were left holding 12.74% of the auction—the biggest inventory hangover since June. In short, demand showed up, but enthusiasm clearly stayed home.

As the great awakening spreads that “risk-free” bonds are now anything but, the auction landed with a thud rather than a bang. Demand was polite, enthusiasm was optional, and the metrics were unmistakably soft—an early omen that in the Year of the Fire Horse, bond yields are likely to gallop higher whether investors like it or not.

America’s political Grinch struck again: Bernie Sanders blocked the Mikaela Naylon Give Kids a Chance Act—a bipartisan bill to help children with cancer access life-saving treatments—despite it passing the House unanimously and heading for effortless Senate approval. Apparently, even kids with cancer aren’t exempt from a career-long game of political obstruction.

https://www.ms.now/chris-jansing-reports/watch/sanders-blocks-bipartisan-pediatric-cancer-bill-from-passing-2477432387803

The Mikaela Naylon Give Kids a Chance Act honors Mikaela Naylon, a Colorado girl diagnosed with osteosarcoma at age 10, who spent her short life advocating for broader access to pediatric cancer trials. After enduring amputation, multiple relapses, surgeries, and treatments across the country, Mikaela and her family worked with lawmakers so other children might have more options than she did. Before her passing at 16, she shared a simple lesson from her journey: that even in the face of immense hardship, the small things matter less than living life as fully as possible.

Bernie Sanders once again mounted the moral high ground—this time to block a unanimous, bipartisan bill helping children with rare diseases. After promising endless “fighting for the people,” he returned to familiar form: virtue signaling over outcomes. The self-styled crusader against oligarchs lectures from private jets and multiple mansions, while procedural purity trumps human consequences. As Democrats explain losses as “oligarchy” rather than accountability, the contradiction is harder to hide: compassion is proclaimed, obstruction delivered.

https://www.mullin.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/release-mullin-champions-bipartisan-give-kids-a-chance-act-condemns-the-grinch-bernie-sanders-for-blocking-the-bill/

Late Sunday afternoon, while most people were debating dinner plans, The Macro Butler was busy on Asharq Bloomberg TV, breaking down the latest twists in the global oil market—and explaining how a return to good old-fashioned gunboat diplomacy could shake supply lines and send prices sailing in 2026.

The interview has been translated into Arabic.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-asharq-bloomberg-tv-096

Nvidia is back at the epicenter of the U.S.–China tech war—where a single export restriction can erase $4.6 billion overnight and turn AI from a growth story into a geopolitical weapon. This isn’t about chips anymore; it’s about power, policy, and capital flows in a fractured world.

https://www.tiktok.com/@the.macro.butler/video/7587034570046868754

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Like a Christmas fairy tale delivered two months late by the Shutdown Circus, the long-lost Q3 GDP print finally arrived: an eye-popping 4.3%, up from an already feverish 3.8% in Q2 and fueled by consumers doing their patriotic duty—spending. It’s ancient history dressed as fresh data, but in a world where every Fed sneeze is treated like scripture, the regime still expects applause for the hottest quarterly growth since Q3 2023.