In an era where geoeconomics governs reality and liquidity remains the leash of nations, South Korea and China have quietly extended their 400-billion-yuan swap line — a five-year renewal that doubles as a non-dollar lifeline should the global monetary order wobble or Washington decide who may trade and who may vanish from SWIFT. Framed as “cooperation,” the deal grants Seoul access to yuan liquidity for trade settlement while subtly reminding the world that dependence on the dollar comes with consequences. Wrapped in diplomatic ceremony and backed by China’s vast web of swap lines, the agreement offers South Korea not liberation, but another layer of insurance in a system where every hedge — even gold — signals growing distrust of the architects of the global financial machine.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/bilateral-swaps-role-in-chinas-rising-global-footprint/article33330279.ece

In a nutshell, South Korea’s renewal of its 400-billion-yuan swap line with China is a quiet, strategic hedge against dollar-dependence in an increasingly unstable, geopolitically policed financial order.

The Macro Butler grabbed an extra armchair and joined Piggo’s Trading Desk to chat about America’s newest coworkers—Ai & robots—how they’re vacuuming up jobs, why everything feels unaffordable, and the economic storm brewing on the road to 2026.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-piggos-trading-desk-2b0

While Donald Copperfield is still waving his wand and bragging about economic “strength,” reality is busy filing paperwork: Subchapter V bankruptcies for small businesses have climbed 8% to 2,221 as of November 2025.

And no, this surge isn’t because of the tariffs or whatever new trick the Magician-in-Chief is rehearsing—it’s the long shadow of rising interest rates since 2022 choking off the era of cheap, reckless credit. Big and small firms alike gorged on easy money, not to mention the PPP buffet. Now, with inflation refusing to leave the party, everything costs more—especially borrowing. Small businesses are being squeezed to death, consumers are buying less for more, and the essentials are increasingly going on plastic.

The illusion is impressive; the reality, not so much.

The problem isn’t some tariff-induced hiccup—it’s a full-blown structural unraveling, the inevitable slide from boom to bust as the economy’s foundation cracks beneath the political theatre, threatening to wobble the entire financial system no matter how many magic tricks are performed on stage.

The Macro Butler was dragged out of bed at dawn for another BFM 89.9 interview, this time to diagnose the latest aches and pains of the U.S. job market and decipher how the Fed’s soon-to-be new Governor will juggle rising unemployment with stubborn prices in 2026 — and, of course, what that circus means for your portfolio from New York to Hong Kong.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-bfm-899-malaysia-05122025

As predictably as Monday follows Sunday, September’s headline PCE — as fresh as an avocado toast forgotten in a hipster café — clocked in at 0.3%. Core PCE inched down, supercore eased, and spending basically flatlined, with Americans buying less stuff but still paying more for the privilege. Incomes rose just enough to pretend everything’s fine, while the savings rate stayed stuck at its annual low. Bottom line: inflation is still too spicy for the Fed, but the real economy looks more like lukewarm soup — hardly the reacceleration story anyone wants to sell heading into the holidays.

In a nutshell, inflation is still too hot, spending is ice cold, and the economy is serving the Fed a very unappetizing lukewarm mess.

Consumer sentiment perked up in December now that the government finally reopened and stopped testing the nation’s patience, but the optimism is about as sturdy as a dollar-store umbrella. Yes, consumers feel slightly better about the labour market, inflation expectations eased a touch, and future expectations brightened—but current conditions actually slipped, most people still expect unemployment to rise, and inflation is viewed as lingering like an unwanted houseguest. In short, the mood has improved, but no one’s breaking out the confetti just yet.

Bottom line: Consumer sentiment got a small December bounce from the government finally reopening, but Americans are still nervously clutching their wallets like the next plot twist is always bad news.

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

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As the world holds its breath for the year's final, riveting FOMC puppet show, the Treasury, in a staggering display of activity, managed to sell another $58 billion in three-year debt. The yield hit an exhilarating 3.614%—its highest since August!—and, in a victory that will surely be memorialized in bronze, it "stopped through" by a massive 0.8 basis points, extending its incomprehensible winning streak to four. Sleep well, financial world.

The overall demand for the $58 billion paper plunged, with the bid-to-cover ratio nose-diving from 3.850, though it miraculously landed 0.009 above the recent average—a true cause for celebration! However, the internal metrics were "more solid," meaning foreign buyers (Indirects) bailed the US out, soaking up a near-record 72.0% of the debt. Because international friends took the lot, the despised Dealers were left with a historically low 9.03%. In other words, the quality of demand was saved by a massive foreign subsidy, ensuring our local financial heroes don't have to carry too much of the debt burden.

In summary, this auction was "surprisingly steady" because a delightful majority of investors are apparently still clinging to the fairy tale that the Treasury bond—the supposed risk-free asset—remains safe, blissfully ignorant that the Educated Yet Idiots now governing the world have rendered nothing on this Earth truly free of risk.

Even while on mission in the city destined to replace NYC as the global financial epicenter, The Macro Butler took time to deliver another price outlook for Gold, Silver, and Copper on Asharq Bloomberg TV.

The world may be shifting East, but the ultimate authority on global commodities remains firmly with The Macro Butler.

The interview has been translated into Arabic.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-asharq-bloomberg-tv-0ba