Despite all the hype about an AI-fueled business boom, U.S. activity in December barely crawled along at a six-month low while input costs soared to a three-year high—proving once again that innovation doesn’t pay the bills. The S&P Global composite index nudged down to 53 (expansion, but just barely), even as the prices-paid gauge shot up to 64.1. Firms grumbled about tariffs and rising costs spreading from manufacturing to services, sending selling prices higher and hiring confidence lower. Orders slowed, service-sector growth stalled, and employment barely budged—all while output keeps ticking up for 35 months, like a treadmill no one asked for.

In a nutshell, U.S. business growth limps along as input costs soar, hiring stalls, and companies wonder how innovation can pay for rising prices—proof that the AI boom comes with a side of sticker shock.

As Europe marches toward its debt trap, the ECB’s Davos-approved answer is—of course—more centralization, with Lagarde calling it an “existential crisis” while quietly admitting the centralized model is finished: 28 nations were never meant to be one economy, and no amount of QE can fix growth destroyed by overregulation, taxation, and policies that deliberately built the very barriers now blamed for Europe’s decline.

https://www.euronews.com/business/2025/12/10/europes-existential-crisis-ecbs-lagarde-calls-for-urgent-reforms

Capital has been fleeing Europe for years—not because of rates, but because confidence is gone. When governments keep changing the rules and treating capital like a criminal, long-term investment vanishes.

Europe has borrowed to preserve lifestyles instead of productivity, the textbook road to decline. When debt grows faster than output, systems break. Lagarde’s “existential crisis” is simply the bill coming due.

And no, this won’t be fixed by another round of Brussels “reforms.” The euro was flawed from birth, and the warnings have been flashing since day one: nations will soon rediscover that sovereignty beats centralized control.

This Christmas, skip the socks and give something that actually compounds. 🎄

The Macro Butler Financial Academy is the gift for those who want to learn how money really works—and learn to earn. No noise, no fairy tales, just real-world macro, markets, and strategy.

👉 Discover more at https://themacrobutler.com/

🎁 Gift knowledge. Build confidence. Create financial independence.

Because the best return on investment is education—and it lasts a lifetime.

Mercedes’ 2026 CLA 220 hybrid is a triumph of globalization: a proud German badge powered by a Geely-co-developed 1.5L engine built in China, lightly sprinkled with a 48-volt hybrid and officially “finished” in Germany for paperwork purposes. It’s efficient, AI-enhanced, softly electrified, and fast enough to feel modern—proof that Western automotive dominance hasn’t ended, it’s just been outsourced, rebranded, and wrapped in ambient lighting. The beginning of the end, or simply the end with better UX?

https://carnewschina.com/2025/12/16/mercedes-benz-2026-cla-220-hybrid-features-a-geely-1-5t-engine-with-208-horsepower/

While Donald Copperfield waves his magic wand and proposes a 50-year mortgage to “solve” affordability—because nothing says You Will Own and Be Happy like debt until retirement and beyond—Russia is drafting legislation to simply pay off mortgages for families with four children.

One model inflates prices, delays adulthood, and does nothing for demographics; the other targets population decline head-on.

https://news-pravda.com/world/2025/12/17/1939722.html

With Christmas a week away, the U.S. Treasury unwrapped a festive $13 billion 20-year bond—priced at a not-so-joyful 4.798% yield, a full 10 bps richer than November’s 4.71%. It barely squeezed through the when-issued level at 4.799%, marking the sixth “stop-through” in seven tries—proof that even in a jubilee year, Santa still demands a higher yield before climbing down the chimney.

And despite the Grinch-like yield, demand showed up: bid-to-cover jumped from 2.41 to 2.67, foreigners feasted on 65.2% (their biggest bite since July), directs nibbled a bit less, and dealers were once again left holding the leftovers—because nothing says “strong auction” like Wall Street stuck with the turkey.

Overall, it was a “solid” auction—proof that plenty of investors still believe the Wall Street fairy tale that government IOUs are risk-free, even as they quietly morph into the riskiest asset to hold heading into inevitable ‘Trump Stagflation’ and the oncoming Year of the Fire Horse.

This Christmas, skip the socks — give a gift that actually compounds. 🎄

The Macro Butler Financial Academy is for those who want to learn how money really works and how to learn to earn. No hype. No fairy tales. Just real macro, real markets, real strategy.

https://www.tiktok.com/@the.macro.butler/video/7585129518206110983?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc&web_id=7547131000448714258

🎁 Gift knowledge. Build confidence. Create financial independence.

Because the best ROI isn’t a gadget — it’s education that lasts a lifetime.

In Eurostan, the Educated Yet Idiots are preparing to “recycle” frozen Russian assets to fund their forever agenda, only to be reminded by Fitch that confiscation dressed up as virtue tends to carry consequences.

The ratings agency promptly put Euroclear on negative watch, warning that the EU’s €210bn “Reparations Loan” could unleash legal warfare, capital flight, and a gentle undermining of the euro itself.

Eurostan’s Malthusian-in-Chief, Kaja Kallas, helpfully explained that the EU’s paralysis is due to having “only” 27 member states—several of which now refuse to bless outright asset seizure. Belgium, home of Euroclear and first in line to hold the liability bag, is under pressure, while Hungary, Slovakia, Italy, Bulgaria, Malta, and the Czech Republic quietly rebel.
Even the IMF and ECB have waved red flags, warning that confiscation masquerading as policy may frighten investors away. Germany pegs the odds of agreement at a neat 50%, Russia promises lawsuits, and the message is clear: in the EU, property rights are negotiable, unity is optional, and financial stability is a shared illusion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fYE_5IU_v-o

In a nutshell, Eurostan’s plan to “recycle” frozen assets has Fitch, investors, and half the EU whispering the same punchline: when property rights become optional, lawsuits are guaranteed and stability is just another policy slogan.

🤵 The Macro Butler Special Service 🤵

🌐 As America stumbles into another round of inflation, the real danger isn’t the chaos—it’s the delusion driving it. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/inflation-delusion-and-the-architects

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler special service newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/inflation-delusion-and-the-architects-cbb

With immaculate political correctness, the ECB left rates exactly where they were and declared—very flexibly—that the cutting cycle is probably over, unless it isn’t. After eight cuts from 4% to 2%, rates are expected to stay put indefinitely, with hikes “premature,” cuts still “optional,” and inflation conveniently projected back to 2%… by 2028. In short: nothing was decided, every option remains open, and the data will speak—once it agrees with the script.

In a nutshell, the ECB froze rates, declared victory over inflation sometime around 2028, and reassured markets that nothing is decided, everything is possible, and confusion remains fully data-dependent.

Right on cue—and after years of monetizing credibility to keep zombie politicians comfortable—the Bank of Japan finally lifted rates to a 30-year high, an entirely predictable move dressed up as newfound “conviction.” After exhausting yield-curve control as a political favor disguised as policy, the BOJ now insists inflation is finally behaving and that more hikes are coming, provided reality continues to cooperate. Markets, unsurprisingly, were not impressed: the move was fully priced, unanimously expected, and does little to repair the damage done to one of the world’s most politicized central banks. The result is straightforward—rising JGB yields, a structurally weaker yen, and a slow realization that a quarter-point hike does not magically restore decades of lost monetary credibility.