⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 Russian Armed Forces hit Ukraine's Energy System on 18 October 2022 - Rybar's Analysis⚡️

🔎 @Rybar's team continues its daily analysis of the consequences of systemic fire strikes on Ukraine's energy system.

🔻 Confirmed strikes:

▪️ Pridneprovskaya TPP - generation in #Dnipropetrovsk has been significantly reduced: the city of one million is left with only the crumbs that can be transmitted via the 330kV overhead line through the still undamaged substations. A wave of blackouts has hit the city.

The damage is limited. In the near future, the power plant will continue to operate - albeit with reduced generation capacity.

▪️ #Kiev TPP-6 - the power transformer of the generator-transformer unit is probably damaged.

Given that there are only two of them at CHPP-6, the damage caused to the central station is much more serious than in Dnipropetrovsk.

Presumably, the 330/110 kV autotransformer was also destroyed.

▪️ #Zhytomyr 330 kV substation - the 330/110 kV autotransformer was hit. The ability to transmit power to end users from the NPP through the 330kV network was reduced.

A safety mechanism has tripped, as a result of which the entire city of #Zhytomyr lost power. It is likely that tomorrow the substation will be restored and the load will be transferred to the remaining autotransformers, but it is unlikely that fan outages and restrictions will be avoided.

🔻 Probable strikes:

Krivoy Rog and Ivano-Frankovsk were also hit today, but there is no reliable information on the targets of the fire.

🔻 Summing up 9 days of fire strikes we come to the conclusion that the resilience of Ukraine's energy system is falling, with even single strikes on generation and distribution facilities shutting down entire regions.

The east of the country is constantly suffering from power outages even without direct impact on the power facilities located there.

The cumulative effect of the strikes is increasing, and if they continue, Ukraine's unified energy system will cease to exist.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar's Analysis: Russian Armed Forces Strikes on Ukraine's Energy System for 19 Oct 2022⚡️

🔎 Rybar's team continues its daily analysis of the consequences of systemic fire strikes on Ukraine's energy system.

🔻 Confirmed strikes:

▪️ #Burshtynskaya TPP - autotransformers struck. Located in the Ivano-Frankovsk region, the TPP supplies power to western Ukraine as well as Transcarpathia and Precarpathia. Depending on the severity of the damage, the entire southwest of the country could face significant power shortages.

▪️ #Ladyzhinskaya TPP - the facility was hit by three missiles, the exact extent of the damage is unknown. Together with the cascade on the #Dnipro River, the TPP feeds the entire south-west of the country, and a complete failure of the facility would increase the load on the grid and lead to power shortages in the region.

🔻 On Power Cuts:

Ukrainian authorities have announced rolling blackouts across all regions for 20 October, which will last from 7:00 am to 11:00 pm. People have been urged to cut electricity consumption as much as possible. Street lighting will also be limited.

According to the deputy head of the presidential office, Kirill Timoshenko, if the power consumption is not reduced, it will be necessary to switch to temporary blackouts. First of all, businesses should reduce electricity consumption.

The Ukrainian energy system is experiencing a shortage of both generating and transmitting capacities. Autotransformers at substations and thermal power plants have been hit. And hydropower plants appear to have been switched to maximum electricity generation, but there is nothing to compensate for morning and evening consumption peaks.

🔻 So far it is impossible to confirm the degree of damage to the energy system at 30-40%, as #Kiev claims. However, the damage has already been quite severe, although not enough to cause a complete collapse.

The 750kV and 330kV switchgear of the remaining three NPPs could cause critical damage to the energy system fairly quickly. But they would also have a strong political cost.

Continued strikes on substations and thermal power plants would achieve the same effect. However, they would require more time and more missiles.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡@Rybar's Analysis: Consequences of Strikes on Ukraine's Energy Infrastructure⚡️

🔎 The Rybar Team continues a systematic analysis of the consequences of fire strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The extreme (hopefully not the last) strike was carried out by the Russian Armed Forces on Saturday 22 October.

💥 The following facilities were hit by fire that day:

▪️ Target #1 - cutting off the Rivne NPP from the 330kV power grid
➖ Rivne 330 substation, 330/110/35/10 kV
➖ Substation Lutsk-Severnaya, voltage 330/220/110/10/6 kV
➖ Substation Kovel 330, voltage 330/220/110/35 kV
➖ TS Khmelnitskaya 330, voltage 330/110/10 kV
➖ Substation Shepetovka 330, voltage 330/110/35kV - at least 330/110kV autotransformer was affected.

▪️ Target #2 - impact on the Odessa power district and create an electricity deficit in the Odessa area.
➖ Pobuzhskaya 330 substation, 330/110/35/10 kV
➖ Substation Kvartsit 330, voltage 330/150/35 kV
➖ TS Polyana 330, voltage 330/110/10kV - presumably
➖ TS Trikhaty 330, 330/220/150/35/10kV - presumably
➖ PS Ukrainka 330, voltage 330/150/35kV, presumably
➖ Substation Ardjalik 330, voltage 330/110/10kV

🩸 Interim Conclusions:

After the large-scale strikes against Ukrainian power plants on Saturday, electricity supply was restored everywhere by Wednesday, albeit with rather severe restrictions.

▪️ The main strikes took place in the centre and west of the country, where the restrictions on electricity consumption were the greatest.

▪️ In Kharkov, for example, the underground escalators could be put into operation because the deficit caused by the shocks was not so large.

▪️ However, it would be fundamentally wrong to claim that the strikes have passed without a trace and that their consequences have been completely overcome.

It is now clear that the shocks once again targeted autotransformers with 330 kV high voltage. Such shocks do not completely cripple the substations themselves, but they do cause considerable difficulties in supplying power to the areas near the substations.

▪️ The transfer of power to the remaining autotransformers leads to their overload during peak loads and emergencies. This leads to the triggering of automatic emergency power systems and repeated disconnections of consumers.

This may explain the numerous complaints from consumers that rolling blackout plans are not being adhered to and there is no power even though it should be there according to the plan.

▪️ To be fair, the Ukrainian energy sector is doing everything in its power to stabilise the situation, and the rolling blackouts are designed to even out consumption peaks in the morning and evening. But it is already clear that this is clearly not enough.

🚨 We are under no illusion that the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian authorities will appreciate the humanism of the Russian authorities in choosing targets for the attacks. We are and remain enemies for them.

Therefore, the attacks, if they take place, must be carried out with maximum efficiency, taking out not the power conversion plants but the substations (SCPs).

Only by attacking them can a substation be completely knocked out without destroying the high-voltage equipment.

Otherwise, the effect, as we are doing now, would take too long.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar's Analysis: Russian Strikes on Ukraine's Energy System on 27 Oct 2022⚡️

🔎 Rybar's team continues its daily analysis of the consequences of systemic fire attacks on Ukraine's energy system.

💥 In 24 hours, our team has recorded two strikes:

▪️ Kievskaya 750kV substation - autotransformer hit confirmed
▪️ Belotserkovskaya 330kV substation - probable damage

🩸 Today's strike on the Kievskaya 750 substation has had a far greater impact in terms of efficiency than all previous strikes on the Kiev power grid combined.

➖ At least one single-phase 750/330kV autotransformer was destroyed. The shields separating the single-phase autotransformers from each other may have protected the other transformers from damage, but the destruction of at least one of the three renders the remaining two useless.

➖ The capacity of one autotransformer is 333 MVA: The RF Armed Forces have deprived the Kiev power district of the technical possibility of receiving 1000 MVA of capacity from the Rivne and Khmelnitsky nuclear power plants. And that is a lot.

Yes, we understand that the transformer may not have been used at 100%, but we assume that the second three single-phase transformers were damaged as a result of previous strikes (unfortunately, objective control facts are lacking).

▪️ This is a very serious blow to the Ukrainian power system. And the consequences were not slow to hit Kiev: a wave of unscheduled power cuts swept across the capital and the region.

Despite #Kiev's own sources of generation - CHP-5, CHP-6 (which also suffered from the strike and lost half of its generating capacity), and the Kiev HPP, as well as the Tripolskaya TPP in the immediate vicinity of the capital - their energy is clearly insufficient for normal operation of the energy system.

🚨 This leads to the conclusion that isolating the nuclear plants from the rest of the grid and consumers is currently the most effective scenario for influencing the Ukrainian energy system.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 Consequences of the Shelling of the #Vinnitsa 750kV Substation - Analysis of Satellite Imagery by @Rybar, publ. 20:53 on 8 Nov⚡️

💥 Russian forces continue their systematic shelling of Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

We have repeatedly provided our analytical notes and observations on the results of the shelling from open sources. However, there is no information on some of the facilities that were likely the target of the Russian strikes. Therefore, we have decided to use images from Maxar. If the enemy uses them to analyse the consequences of the shelling, why can't we do so?

🔎 The infographic shows an analysis of the Vinnitsa 750kV substation image from 1 November 2022.

▪️ Two impact craters are recorded on the outermost autotransformer with evidence of damage to the current leads to it and, presumably, signs of burning oil around it.

▪️ Another autotransformer damaged. The structure is lined with sandbags.

▪️ All of the most valuable equipment has been surrounded by fire and shatterproof shields, which will definitely reduce the effect of subsequent strikes.

▪️ For reasons unknown to us, one bypass reactor is missing (it used to be in the pictures).

🩸 From what we have seen, we can conclude that the substation has sustained some damage, but its functionality is probably intact. Further strikes are required to disable the remaining 750/330 kV autotransformer group.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar's Analysis - Russian Armed Forces hit Ukraine's Energy System on 15 Nov 2022⚡️

🔎 Rybar's team continues its analysis of the consequences of a systemic fire attack on Ukraine's energy system.

#Kiev said today's raid was the largest such attack since the start of the SMO. According to Ukrainian resources, cruise missiles and kamikaze drones damaged 15 critical infrastructure facilities.

We have repeatedly written that strikes have a cumulative effect, with each successive raid resulting in increasingly grave consequences for the Ukrainian energy system. This is exactly what today's events have demonstrated:

▪️ Strikes on the #Zmiev thermal power plant in #Chuguev district temporarily completely de-energised the entire #Kharkov region.

▪️ Strikes on facilities in #Kiev led to massive overloads in the power grid and tripping of emergency frequency overload automatics, which was perfectly visible in the footage of pulsating power on and off.

▪️ Repeated strikes on the #Zhytomyr 330 substation resulted in power outages in this regional centre and areas around it.

▪️ Voltage surges and temporary power outages were reported in western regions of Ukraine after repeated strikes on the Lvov-South 330 substation in Lvov Region and the #Kovel 330 substation in #Volyn Region.

🔻 For the first time, #Moldova also experienced the consequences of Russian missile strikes: paradoxically, they were the consequence of the policies of the authorities themselves in #Chisinau.

➖ Restrictions of gas supply to #Transnistria led to decrease of generation of the Moldavian state district power station that with its capacity stabilized the situation in the south of #Odessa region and fed the energy deficit of #Moldova.

➖ Due to reduced capacity and increased consumption from Ukraine, exacerbated by a possible impact on the 330 substation in #Artsyz, an automatic protection was triggered at the TPP. The plant switched to self-powered operation, which caused consumers in Moldova and Transnistria to be disconnected.

➖ Also, a section of the 750kV high voltage transit line in #Romania was disconnected, which may indirectly indicate a possible short circuit from the 750kV switchgear of the South Ukraine NPP.

🔻 The lack of objective data from most of the hit locations made it impossible to determine exactly which elements of the energy facilities were targeted in each attack.

However, dense black plumes could be seen in photos and videos from the arrival areas. This indirectly indicates that it is highly likely that the strikes were again directed at power and automatic transformers rather than general control stations (GCPs).

🩸 Their preservation would once again allow Ukrainian power producers to reassemble emergency circuits and eliminate damaged equipment in a relatively short period of time. Yes, it will cause even more severe restrictions, but power supply to consumers will be restored.

The absence of strikes on the General Control Stations reduces the impact on the Ukrainian energy system, although even then its resilience drops with each attack.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar - the Aftermath of the Ladyzhinskaya TPP Shelling - Analysis of Satellite Imagery⚡️

Ladyzhinskaya TPP is a large thermal power plant in south-western Ukraine, generating 1,800 MW, which has been hit more than once, according to reports from the field. We tried to find out how much damage had been done to the plant: we found out that not only the 330kV switchgear was hit, but also the power plant itself.

▪️ The first location identified was the now partially destroyed compressor building. Damage to the compressor room cannot be considered critical.

Nearby 330 kV switchgear equipment was also damaged (we assume that these were high-voltage circuit breakers on the 330 kV outgoing line to the Vinnitskaya 750 substation).

▪️ The second suspected point of impact was the site near the chemical water treatment building. The arrival came in the car park next to the building: a technical pipeline with treated water was damaged. This impact cannot be called critical for the plant either - it is most likely a miss.

▪️ The third suspected point of impact is the covered gallery. It refers to the trestle with the belt conveyor of coal from the storage area to the main building of the TPP.

In addition to the damage to the gallery, a process pipeline is visible. Judging by the yellow colour of the pipes and its start at the gas distribution point, it can be assumed that it was used to transfer the natural gas used for firing the boilers.

🩸 The impact on the process pipeline seems to have been the most sensitive for the TPP. However, the damage was not so critical, as can be seen in the smoke coming from one of the pipes.

Repeated strikes are required to put the power plant's generation out of action. The plant is now prepared for a fire attack: all transformers are protected with fire and shrapnel barriers.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar - Consequences of Tripolskaya TPP Fire - Analysis of Satellite Imagery ⚡️

Tripolskaya TPP is an 1800 MW thermal power plant in the heart of Ukraine, powering, among others, the city of #Kiev. There was extremely conflicting information on the impacts, so when the commercial Maxar satellites finally captured the square of interest to our team (and there was no cloud cover!), we immediately bought the image back.

🔎 Preliminary analysis showed that there were several potential missile and UAV locations.

▪️ Neither the switchyard itself nor the two 330 / 110 kV autotransformers located within the station were affected.

▪️ A close look at the power transformers at the rightmost transformer shows signs of fire on the ground and the power step-up transformer itself looks damaged by the fire. The power conduits to it, coming from the generator, are also damaged.

▪️ The last power step-up transformer is also damaged. Both incoming and outgoing conductors are also damaged.

▪️ The third point that caught our attention was the two demolished buildings on the edge of the fuel oil terminal of the power plant. As the purpose of these buildings is not fully understood, we concede that they may have been destroyed accidentally due to a miss on the main target located at the fuel oil facility of the TPP.

🩸 It is likely that Tripoli TPP's power generation capacity has been reduced by a third due to damage to the two power step-up transformers and is now at maximum 1200 MW of electricity.

Unlike previous energy facilities, the TPP neglected to protect the most important elements of the energy infrastructure with sandbags and additional fencing. Perhaps such measures are only taken at facilities owned by Ukrainian DTEK - this would explain such carelessness.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 Residents of a Neighbourhood in #Odessa have protested against a Power Cut⚡️

According to them, their homes have been without electricity for four days. The people accuse the authorities of inaction and unwillingness to resolve the issue of resumption of power supply.

What is happening is a clear example of the systematic firing on the Ukrainian energy system. The country will not experience a total "blackout", but the failure of transformer equipment and other similar facilities is destroying the single structure.

The grid is gradually disintegrating into separate unconnected "islands", with areas in the southern part of the country no longer able to draw power from nuclear power plants in western Ukraine.

Yes, the energy sector is urgently picking up emergency circuits and rerouting power to problem areas. But with each new massive onslaught, it becomes increasingly difficult to do so: the cumulative effect of previous strikes is taking its toll, see also here 👉 @Rybar's Analysis - Ukraine's Energy System - Hits on 15 Nov.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 On Protests Against Power Outages in #Odessa⚡️

News broke yesterday of the detention in #Odessa of the organiser of recent protests over power cuts in the city, caused by disruptions due to Russian military strikes on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

▪️ The demonstrations began after information was circulated in Odessa chat rooms that cinemas in #Lvov were running amid severe electricity problems in the #Odessa region.

▪️ On 18 November, residents of houses in #Tairova Settlement blocked the street because of a four-day power outage. According to them, the reason was the inaction of the authorities to repair transformers.

▪️ On the morning of 19 November, residents of the Raduzhnyy housing estate on Marshala Zhukova Avenue (Nebesnaya Sotnya) also blocked the road at a pedestrian crossing. People began self-coordinating via house chats.

▪️ However, police dispersed both actions. The SBU arrested one of the organisers, who apologised on camera and refused to engage in further protests. In addition, the authorities promised Odessans to fix breakdowns in the energy system and created a bot to appeal to residents sitting without electricity for more than three days.

▪️ Similar actions began in #Chernigov, where residents were without power for 20 hours. But local officials told people about a quick solution to the problem and persuaded them to go home.

🩸 Now the protests in #Odessa are likely to die down. In other Ukrainian cities, too, we should not expect a surge of demonstrations: the administrative and power resources of the Kiev authorities simply will not allow them to reach even the regional level.

Nevertheless, what has happened is evidence of public dissatisfaction with the problems in the Ukrainian energy system. Yes, there will be no mass acts of defiance, but the permanent problems with electricity will affect the morale of the Ukrainian population.

And that, in turn, will directly affect the AFU's decreased morale on the front lines and reduce the enemy's offensive capabilities.

Therefore, the systematic firefighting of Ukraine's energy infrastructure must continue.

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