⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar's Analysis: Russian Armed Forces Strikes on Ukraine's Energy System for 19 Oct 2022⚡️

🔎 Rybar's team continues its daily analysis of the consequences of systemic fire strikes on Ukraine's energy system.

🔻 Confirmed strikes:

▪️ #Burshtynskaya TPP - autotransformers struck. Located in the Ivano-Frankovsk region, the TPP supplies power to western Ukraine as well as Transcarpathia and Precarpathia. Depending on the severity of the damage, the entire southwest of the country could face significant power shortages.

▪️ #Ladyzhinskaya TPP - the facility was hit by three missiles, the exact extent of the damage is unknown. Together with the cascade on the #Dnipro River, the TPP feeds the entire south-west of the country, and a complete failure of the facility would increase the load on the grid and lead to power shortages in the region.

🔻 On Power Cuts:

Ukrainian authorities have announced rolling blackouts across all regions for 20 October, which will last from 7:00 am to 11:00 pm. People have been urged to cut electricity consumption as much as possible. Street lighting will also be limited.

According to the deputy head of the presidential office, Kirill Timoshenko, if the power consumption is not reduced, it will be necessary to switch to temporary blackouts. First of all, businesses should reduce electricity consumption.

The Ukrainian energy system is experiencing a shortage of both generating and transmitting capacities. Autotransformers at substations and thermal power plants have been hit. And hydropower plants appear to have been switched to maximum electricity generation, but there is nothing to compensate for morning and evening consumption peaks.

🔻 So far it is impossible to confirm the degree of damage to the energy system at 30-40%, as #Kiev claims. However, the damage has already been quite severe, although not enough to cause a complete collapse.

The 750kV and 330kV switchgear of the remaining three NPPs could cause critical damage to the energy system fairly quickly. But they would also have a strong political cost.

Continued strikes on substations and thermal power plants would achieve the same effect. However, they would require more time and more missiles.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar's Analysis - Russian Armed Forces hit Ukraine's Energy System on 15 Nov 2022⚡️

🔎 Rybar's team continues its analysis of the consequences of a systemic fire attack on Ukraine's energy system.

#Kiev said today's raid was the largest such attack since the start of the SMO. According to Ukrainian resources, cruise missiles and kamikaze drones damaged 15 critical infrastructure facilities.

We have repeatedly written that strikes have a cumulative effect, with each successive raid resulting in increasingly grave consequences for the Ukrainian energy system. This is exactly what today's events have demonstrated:

▪️ Strikes on the #Zmiev thermal power plant in #Chuguev district temporarily completely de-energised the entire #Kharkov region.

▪️ Strikes on facilities in #Kiev led to massive overloads in the power grid and tripping of emergency frequency overload automatics, which was perfectly visible in the footage of pulsating power on and off.

▪️ Repeated strikes on the #Zhytomyr 330 substation resulted in power outages in this regional centre and areas around it.

▪️ Voltage surges and temporary power outages were reported in western regions of Ukraine after repeated strikes on the Lvov-South 330 substation in Lvov Region and the #Kovel 330 substation in #Volyn Region.

🔻 For the first time, #Moldova also experienced the consequences of Russian missile strikes: paradoxically, they were the consequence of the policies of the authorities themselves in #Chisinau.

➖ Restrictions of gas supply to #Transnistria led to decrease of generation of the Moldavian state district power station that with its capacity stabilized the situation in the south of #Odessa region and fed the energy deficit of #Moldova.

➖ Due to reduced capacity and increased consumption from Ukraine, exacerbated by a possible impact on the 330 substation in #Artsyz, an automatic protection was triggered at the TPP. The plant switched to self-powered operation, which caused consumers in Moldova and Transnistria to be disconnected.

➖ Also, a section of the 750kV high voltage transit line in #Romania was disconnected, which may indirectly indicate a possible short circuit from the 750kV switchgear of the South Ukraine NPP.

🔻 The lack of objective data from most of the hit locations made it impossible to determine exactly which elements of the energy facilities were targeted in each attack.

However, dense black plumes could be seen in photos and videos from the arrival areas. This indirectly indicates that it is highly likely that the strikes were again directed at power and automatic transformers rather than general control stations (GCPs).

🩸 Their preservation would once again allow Ukrainian power producers to reassemble emergency circuits and eliminate damaged equipment in a relatively short period of time. Yes, it will cause even more severe restrictions, but power supply to consumers will be restored.

The absence of strikes on the General Control Stations reduces the impact on the Ukrainian energy system, although even then its resilience drops with each attack.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar - the Aftermath of the Ladyzhinskaya TPP Shelling - Analysis of Satellite Imagery⚡️

Ladyzhinskaya TPP is a large thermal power plant in south-western Ukraine, generating 1,800 MW, which has been hit more than once, according to reports from the field. We tried to find out how much damage had been done to the plant: we found out that not only the 330kV switchgear was hit, but also the power plant itself.

▪️ The first location identified was the now partially destroyed compressor building. Damage to the compressor room cannot be considered critical.

Nearby 330 kV switchgear equipment was also damaged (we assume that these were high-voltage circuit breakers on the 330 kV outgoing line to the Vinnitskaya 750 substation).

▪️ The second suspected point of impact was the site near the chemical water treatment building. The arrival came in the car park next to the building: a technical pipeline with treated water was damaged. This impact cannot be called critical for the plant either - it is most likely a miss.

▪️ The third suspected point of impact is the covered gallery. It refers to the trestle with the belt conveyor of coal from the storage area to the main building of the TPP.

In addition to the damage to the gallery, a process pipeline is visible. Judging by the yellow colour of the pipes and its start at the gas distribution point, it can be assumed that it was used to transfer the natural gas used for firing the boilers.

🩸 The impact on the process pipeline seems to have been the most sensitive for the TPP. However, the damage was not so critical, as can be seen in the smoke coming from one of the pipes.

Repeated strikes are required to put the power plant's generation out of action. The plant is now prepared for a fire attack: all transformers are protected with fire and shrapnel barriers.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦💡 @Rybar - Consequences of Tripolskaya TPP Fire - Analysis of Satellite Imagery ⚡️

Tripolskaya TPP is an 1800 MW thermal power plant in the heart of Ukraine, powering, among others, the city of #Kiev. There was extremely conflicting information on the impacts, so when the commercial Maxar satellites finally captured the square of interest to our team (and there was no cloud cover!), we immediately bought the image back.

🔎 Preliminary analysis showed that there were several potential missile and UAV locations.

▪️ Neither the switchyard itself nor the two 330 / 110 kV autotransformers located within the station were affected.

▪️ A close look at the power transformers at the rightmost transformer shows signs of fire on the ground and the power step-up transformer itself looks damaged by the fire. The power conduits to it, coming from the generator, are also damaged.

▪️ The last power step-up transformer is also damaged. Both incoming and outgoing conductors are also damaged.

▪️ The third point that caught our attention was the two demolished buildings on the edge of the fuel oil terminal of the power plant. As the purpose of these buildings is not fully understood, we concede that they may have been destroyed accidentally due to a miss on the main target located at the fuel oil facility of the TPP.

🩸 It is likely that Tripoli TPP's power generation capacity has been reduced by a third due to damage to the two power step-up transformers and is now at maximum 1200 MW of electricity.

Unlike previous energy facilities, the TPP neglected to protect the most important elements of the energy infrastructure with sandbags and additional fencing. Perhaps such measures are only taken at facilities owned by Ukrainian DTEK - this would explain such carelessness.

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⚡️🇷🇺🇺🇦☢️ Breaking - Emergency Shutdown of Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plants⚡️

After today's massive Russian strike, media reports of problems at nuclear facilities in #Ukraine immediately started pouring in.

First the South Ukraine nuclear power plant in #Nikolaev Oblast went into emergency mode, followed later by the #Rivne and #Khmelnitsky nuclear power plants in the western part of the country.

The most probable cause of the accident was the failure of supply substations. This led to a sharp drop in the consumers of electricity generated by the NPPs, due to which the shifts on duty were forced to shut down the reactors and put them to work for the plants' own needs.

🩸 Today, for the first time since the SMO began, all Ukrainian nuclear power plants have been "shut down" from the country's power grid.

It is not out of the question that power engineers will be able to put the emergency circuits back together and restart some of the nuclear plants.

But what is happening is a good demonstration of the beginning of the disintegration of Ukraine's unified energy system into separate, independent "islands".

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