If HIP-4 captures HALF of Polymarket's volume in the bull case, it adds $17M/year to @HyperliquidX
That's only 2.5% of HL's current revenue.
➢ 1% of Polymarket: $347K/year
➢ 10%: $3.5M/year
➢ 30%: $10.4M/year, +1.5% revenue
➢ 50%: $17.4M/year, +2.5% revenue (bull case)
HIP-4 fees alone don't move HL's P&L. Even the bull case is small.
The real bet is $USDH. Every HIP-4 position needs USDH as collateral. That's where the value actually compounds across HL's whole ecosystem.
h/t to @DefiLlama for the data
That's only 2.5% of HL's current revenue.
➢ 1% of Polymarket: $347K/year
➢ 10%: $3.5M/year
➢ 30%: $10.4M/year, +1.5% revenue
➢ 50%: $17.4M/year, +2.5% revenue (bull case)
HIP-4 fees alone don't move HL's P&L. Even the bull case is small.
The real bet is $USDH. Every HIP-4 position needs USDH as collateral. That's where the value actually compounds across HL's whole ecosystem.
h/t to @DefiLlama for the data
There's a token where every dollar of usage destroys more supply than the dollar before it. It's not new. It's just not being priced.
Here's the loop👇
1. Every dollar of compute on @akashnet buys AKT from the open market and burns it
2. You get a stable USD credit to pay for the job
3. When the job ends, the provider gets paid in freshly minted AKT at that moment's price
When $AKT rises btw the burn and the payout, fewer tokens get minted back than were destroyed.
That gap is gone forever and the leading indicators atm are:
➥ AkashML is doing 4-6B AI tokens daily on OpenRouter since late April
➥ Over 100B AI tokens processed in the last 30D
➥ Outpacing Cloudflare on daily throughput
$110K in compute spend last month, every dollar running through BME.
Watch this on https://stats.akash.network/graph/total-usd-spent
Here's the loop👇
1. Every dollar of compute on @akashnet buys AKT from the open market and burns it
2. You get a stable USD credit to pay for the job
3. When the job ends, the provider gets paid in freshly minted AKT at that moment's price
When $AKT rises btw the burn and the payout, fewer tokens get minted back than were destroyed.
That gap is gone forever and the leading indicators atm are:
➥ AkashML is doing 4-6B AI tokens daily on OpenRouter since late April
➥ Over 100B AI tokens processed in the last 30D
➥ Outpacing Cloudflare on daily throughput
$110K in compute spend last month, every dollar running through BME.
Watch this on https://stats.akash.network/graph/total-usd-spent
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Seeing alot of wallet drains lately. It doesn't matter how good your trades are if someone has your sp/pk everything will be gone in one transaction.
Here's a list to follow to make sure it's not you next:
- Never store your seed phrase on any device. Paper or metal only
- If you've ever pasted your seed anywhere digital, that wallet is at risk. Make a new one
- Never import your hardware wallet seed into a software wallet
- Use separate seeds for separate wallets. One leak shouldn't drain everything
- Daily wallet holds only what you're okay losing today
- Audit your browser extensions right now. Remove what you don't use
- Every DM about "support" or "verification" is an attack. Always
- Check revokedotcash weekly or use rabby wallet for revoking
- Never copy addresses from transaction history. Verify the full address every time
- Random tokens appearing in your wallet are bait. Don't touch them
- If your device security is poor, a major CEX is safer than a hot wallet on a compromised laptop. Self-custody only wins when the custody is actually secure
Hope this helps.
Here's a list to follow to make sure it's not you next:
- Never store your seed phrase on any device. Paper or metal only
- If you've ever pasted your seed anywhere digital, that wallet is at risk. Make a new one
- Never import your hardware wallet seed into a software wallet
- Use separate seeds for separate wallets. One leak shouldn't drain everything
- Daily wallet holds only what you're okay losing today
- Audit your browser extensions right now. Remove what you don't use
- Every DM about "support" or "verification" is an attack. Always
- Check revokedotcash weekly or use rabby wallet for revoking
- Never copy addresses from transaction history. Verify the full address every time
- Random tokens appearing in your wallet are bait. Don't touch them
- If your device security is poor, a major CEX is safer than a hot wallet on a compromised laptop. Self-custody only wins when the custody is actually secure
Hope this helps.
👍2
$VVV is on an absolute tear and has jumped 80% in the last week
When I see such booms in larger caps I always wonder who are the buyers and / or accumulators of the token
The pattern here is interesting
> Retail holders aren't aggressively buying anymore and are at a plateau simply because the r/r for them isn't there
> Small holders are steadily rising from 704 to 907
> Whale holders are aggressively buying while mid-tier holders started selling here despite an ATH
This dynamic is to be expected in a token as important as Venice patient whales hoarding the supply while smaller holders are taking some profits
Smart money is involved here
When I see such booms in larger caps I always wonder who are the buyers and / or accumulators of the token
The pattern here is interesting
> Retail holders aren't aggressively buying anymore and are at a plateau simply because the r/r for them isn't there
> Small holders are steadily rising from 704 to 907
> Whale holders are aggressively buying while mid-tier holders started selling here despite an ATH
This dynamic is to be expected in a token as important as Venice patient whales hoarding the supply while smaller holders are taking some profits
Smart money is involved here
❤1
The nonUSD stablecoin thesis everyone writes about is FX trading onchain. The data shows something more interesting is already happening underneath.
NonUSD stable supply tripled to $1.1B in three years, monthly transfer volume jumped 16x to $10B+ and holding addresses went above 1M. Yes the growth is real, but where it lands is not where most expect.
➢ 90% of nonUSD stable activity sits in euros, used as onchain cash inside DeFi
➢ Strip out euros and 80% of the rest is unidentified transfers like payment rails, B2B settlement, remittances
Two completely different products are getting bundled into one narrative. Euro stables behave like DeFi yield instruments. Non-euro stables behave like settlement infrastructure
The mechanism producing this is regulation. The MiCA template has already replicated four times in 12 months and the pattern is consistent👇
1. EU
➥ MiCA killed EURT overnight as Circle's single French EMI license passports across 27 countries
➥ EURC went from 17% to 41% market share in 12 months
2. Hong Kong
➥ April 10 2026, HKMA awarded the first two stablecoin licenses out of 36 applicants (HSBC and Standard Chartered)
➥ HKD stablecoin launches in H2 2026
3. Singapore
➥ MAS framework is live mid-2026
➥ StraitsX already holds in-principle approval for XSGD
➥ Only Singapore-incorporated issuers permitted (SGD and G10 pegs allowed)
4. Brazil
➥ BCB Resolutions 519, 520, 521 effective Feb 2 2026
➥ Stablecoins classified as foreign exchange operations
➥ Q1 2026 crypto purchases hit $6.9B with 98% in stablecoins
Every jurisdiction limits issuance to local entities. Every jurisdiction picks the licensed winner. The best product is not winning. The most prepared issuer with regulatory relationships is.
The forward read is identifying who captures the next vacuum. UAE, UK, Japan have frameworks in motion. India, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, South Africa, Korea are still open. Whoever gets the first license in each currency becomes that currency's Circle.
The investable thesis is not nonUSD stablecoins as an asset class. It is identifying which licensed issuer wins each jurisdiction before the framework lands.
FX trading onchain is the dream that gets discussed. Payments and licensed local rails are the infrastructure being laid now. Carry trades will arrive after the rails do, not before.
NonUSD stable supply tripled to $1.1B in three years, monthly transfer volume jumped 16x to $10B+ and holding addresses went above 1M. Yes the growth is real, but where it lands is not where most expect.
➢ 90% of nonUSD stable activity sits in euros, used as onchain cash inside DeFi
➢ Strip out euros and 80% of the rest is unidentified transfers like payment rails, B2B settlement, remittances
Two completely different products are getting bundled into one narrative. Euro stables behave like DeFi yield instruments. Non-euro stables behave like settlement infrastructure
The mechanism producing this is regulation. The MiCA template has already replicated four times in 12 months and the pattern is consistent👇
1. EU
➥ MiCA killed EURT overnight as Circle's single French EMI license passports across 27 countries
➥ EURC went from 17% to 41% market share in 12 months
2. Hong Kong
➥ April 10 2026, HKMA awarded the first two stablecoin licenses out of 36 applicants (HSBC and Standard Chartered)
➥ HKD stablecoin launches in H2 2026
3. Singapore
➥ MAS framework is live mid-2026
➥ StraitsX already holds in-principle approval for XSGD
➥ Only Singapore-incorporated issuers permitted (SGD and G10 pegs allowed)
4. Brazil
➥ BCB Resolutions 519, 520, 521 effective Feb 2 2026
➥ Stablecoins classified as foreign exchange operations
➥ Q1 2026 crypto purchases hit $6.9B with 98% in stablecoins
Every jurisdiction limits issuance to local entities. Every jurisdiction picks the licensed winner. The best product is not winning. The most prepared issuer with regulatory relationships is.
The forward read is identifying who captures the next vacuum. UAE, UK, Japan have frameworks in motion. India, Indonesia, Mexico, Turkey, South Africa, Korea are still open. Whoever gets the first license in each currency becomes that currency's Circle.
The investable thesis is not nonUSD stablecoins as an asset class. It is identifying which licensed issuer wins each jurisdiction before the framework lands.
FX trading onchain is the dream that gets discussed. Payments and licensed local rails are the infrastructure being laid now. Carry trades will arrive after the rails do, not before.
🔥1
Forwarded from Valueverse
Just see it yourself
Eff.M.Cap (total price of all $VVV staked and receiving revenue) follows the revenue.
Now it seems overvalued (m.cap -> UP, rev -> declining)
Multiplier was 2.5-3.5x when the rally started, now it is 13.6x (30D).
It means that today $VVV is 4x more expensive in terms of future revenue price that it was in Dec-Jan (and 14x more expensive in terms of spot USD-per-token price)
Eff.M.Cap (total price of all $VVV staked and receiving revenue) follows the revenue.
Now it seems overvalued (m.cap -> UP, rev -> declining)
Multiplier was 2.5-3.5x when the rally started, now it is 13.6x (30D).
It means that today $VVV is 4x more expensive in terms of future revenue price that it was in Dec-Jan (and 14x more expensive in terms of spot USD-per-token price)
Valueverse
Just see it yourself Eff.M.Cap (total price of all $VVV staked and receiving revenue) follows the revenue. Now it seems overvalued (m.cap -> UP, rev -> declining) Multiplier was 2.5-3.5x when the rally started, now it is 13.6x (30D). It means that today…
Still believe there is fuel in this to run hard. But I'll wait for a pullback. Almost 3/4th of CT is talking about it now so I'll be conservative here as I do feel $20 region mark will be the first local top for this one.
Forwarded from Curated Crypto
Ethena’s retention problem looks very real.
TVL went from ~$4.7B → $14.8B during the 2025 bull run, then collapsed back to ~$3.9B by May 2026. That’s a ~74% drawdown from peak and one of the worst declines among top DeFi protocols.
USDe yield depends heavily on perp funding rates through basis trades. When funding was elevated, sUSDe yields dominated the market and attracted huge inflows.
But once funding normalized, the edge disappeared:
• sUSDe → ~3.2%
• sUSDS → ~3.6%
• sUSDf → ~4.7%
Mercenary capital rotated out.
What’s left now is a smaller group of users who actually believe in the USDe model itself.
The LayerZero bridge suspension after the April exploit likely accelerated outflows too by hurting cross-chain liquidity.
Ethena proved it can attract capital.
The harder question is whether it can retain users once the yield premium disappears.
Author: Stacy Muur
📱 X (Twitter) | 📱 Telegram
TVL went from ~$4.7B → $14.8B during the 2025 bull run, then collapsed back to ~$3.9B by May 2026. That’s a ~74% drawdown from peak and one of the worst declines among top DeFi protocols.
USDe yield depends heavily on perp funding rates through basis trades. When funding was elevated, sUSDe yields dominated the market and attracted huge inflows.
But once funding normalized, the edge disappeared:
• sUSDe → ~3.2%
• sUSDS → ~3.6%
• sUSDf → ~4.7%
Mercenary capital rotated out.
What’s left now is a smaller group of users who actually believe in the USDe model itself.
The LayerZero bridge suspension after the April exploit likely accelerated outflows too by hurting cross-chain liquidity.
Ethena proved it can attract capital.
The harder question is whether it can retain users once the yield premium disappears.
Author: Stacy Muur
📱 X (Twitter) | 📱 Telegram
YashasEdu’ Digest
Part 1 Here's a reality check on @ethena I've been covering this protocol since early days. If you hold ENA or use sUSDe, this is something you need to see👇 ➥ The Ethena we all bought: ➢ Delta-neutral synthetic dollar (short crypto perps against spot)…
I've shared my views on Ethena here already.
For me the protocol and neither the model is dead or broken but the version of Ethena that justified an $889M mcap doesn't exist right now.
Read full here
For me the protocol and neither the model is dead or broken but the version of Ethena that justified an $889M mcap doesn't exist right now.
Read full here
👍1
Forwarded from Stacy in Dataland (´⊙~⊙`)
What stands out in DeFi revenue right now is how much value the top apps are actually returning to token holders. Hyperliquid, edgeX, and Pump Fun distributed more than $100M combined over the last 30 days, and all three products are still relatively young.
Crypto still rewards distribution and execution speed faster than almost any other industry. Some of the highest cash-flowing applications in the sector did not even exist three years ago.
Crypto still rewards distribution and execution speed faster than almost any other industry. Some of the highest cash-flowing applications in the sector did not even exist three years ago.
👍1
Everyone is going to read this as a CRCL story. The bigger derivative trade is $AERO
@AerodromeFi is launching on Arc alongside its Ethereum mainnet expansion.
➥ @arc has a built-in institutional RFQ system for stablecoin FX, USDC native gas and EURC and USYC as day one assets
➥ FX is one of the four pillars Circle is explicitly building Arc for
The offchain FX market does ~$10T a day. Even 0.01% landing on Arc over the next two years more than 2x Aero's current fee run-rate by itself. It already extracts $7.9M in monthly fees from $13B of Base volume, with revenue driven by trading activity.
That fee model is built for high-volume, low-TVL flow, the exact profile of institutional FX. Aero will be the DEX layer on that rail.
@AerodromeFi is launching on Arc alongside its Ethereum mainnet expansion.
➥ @arc has a built-in institutional RFQ system for stablecoin FX, USDC native gas and EURC and USYC as day one assets
➥ FX is one of the four pillars Circle is explicitly building Arc for
The offchain FX market does ~$10T a day. Even 0.01% landing on Arc over the next two years more than 2x Aero's current fee run-rate by itself. It already extracts $7.9M in monthly fees from $13B of Base volume, with revenue driven by trading activity.
That fee model is built for high-volume, low-TVL flow, the exact profile of institutional FX. Aero will be the DEX layer on that rail.
👍2
NEAR Intents hit its all time fee peak of $583K daily in November 2025.
That day was Zcash flow. Current daily fees are ~$90K, down 84% from peak. Now the $ZEC volume curve is re-accelerating right now. If it returns to November rates, NEAR Intents goes from $35M annualized fees to $213M.
Remember the fee switch routes that flow straight into $NEAR buybacks.
h/t to @DefiLlama for the data
That day was Zcash flow. Current daily fees are ~$90K, down 84% from peak. Now the $ZEC volume curve is re-accelerating right now. If it returns to November rates, NEAR Intents goes from $35M annualized fees to $213M.
Remember the fee switch routes that flow straight into $NEAR buybacks.
h/t to @DefiLlama for the data
👍1