A great trader I followed shared his predictions for NFP and reaction:

220K+ (odds: 3%): -50bps spx (min. 25bps loss)
180K - 220K (odds: 25%): +25bps - 75bps
140K - 180K (odds: 40%): +25bps - 50bps
100K - 140K (odds: 26%): -35bps -75bps
sub 100K (odds: 6%): -75bps - 150bps

(SPX). We're going into it risk on (BTC). It's the best proxy for risk imo

NFP data came in bad. We're still watching.

Still holding our long. We've had a slaughter of bad news in the last week (DoJ selling BTC, bad macro results)... normally price tends to find a local bottom after bad news. We still have some more bids down to 90.5K, but will cut if appropriate

Our strategy remains the same. Buy with conviction at good prices. For all the TA enthusiasts, we bounced off a key support. Targeting 96-97k for TP

Our entry is around 94k

Exitted and re-entered lower. Testing a new execution strategy.

Still belivee it's a good level to bid. We have a big week (PPI + CPI for US), think we skew to upside here after a week of selling

Going to start scaling out of our BTC long

This new execution method allows us to take partial profits, as opposed to cTrader which wants us to close full positoins

TRADE RECAP:
- We bidded into BTCUSD fear as the price dropped.
- We had major fearful news (DoJ selling, bad NFP print) and tradfi markets were extremely red pre-market (SPY/QQQ).
- As price approached 90k, a lot of participants were piling into shorts (very late).
- It was clear that there would be a massive liquidation that would change the direction of the market.
- As NY stock market open, Saylor announced another buy of BTC (most thought he would not be able to buy via MSTR due to blackout period), which surprised the market (leaning towards upside)
- As market pumped, all those late shorters were trapped in their position and ended up unwinding


I think we can still get 96-97k before US CPI this week. Watching and will slowly take profit.

This was a fantastic trade to start the new year - here's to hoping there are many more like this!

BTC looks great to long. Building a position

It's like a repeat of our previous trade. A lot of fear heading into red pre-market with shorts piling in.

We just chilling, watching charts from the sidelines. FOMC tomorrow. Could be a coinflip. Better to preserve our gains than gamble it in the market at the moment.

More trades will come...

Thought we priced in BTC dump over tariffs over the weekend. Was wrong on it. Watching and will revaluate NY market open

Biggest liquidation event in crypto. Prime for bidding. Onwards and upwards into fear

What a TRADE. Knew Trump would delay his threats of tariff as soon as SPY / QQQ pre-market was down red.

We are bidding into these liquidations on BTCUSD

We have been jamming longs into these liquidations. Market should go up soon. Will manage risk accordingly

We messed up our execution a bit on the last week's crazy volatility. Lessons learned.

Closing the strategy. It's been a pleasure to deliver 81% returns in ~20 months (we beat the SP500!).

Going to focus on personal portfolio now and run it up to 8 figures balance instead.

Will leave the chat and discussion telegram open for the few subscribers over these 20 months.