The closure of the Strait of Hormuz shut in 14m barrels a day of oil. To destroy that much demand, they said, the price of Brent crude should be more than double its pre-war level, at well over $150 a barrel. But oil traders were in a stupor. As recently as April 17th prices were below $90 a barrel. Over the past week, on talk of renewed fighting, they have been waking up. On April 30th prices spiked above $125.
Unfortunately, as bad as things are, the disconnect with reality endures. Not only may spot prices have further to climb, but the oil-futures market, in which speculators bet on where the oil price is going, says prices will fall every month for the rest of the year, ending 2026 at about $88.

Targets include remaining military assets, leadership, and infrastructure.

Tuapse. There's no fire in the port, there was a small fire there, which was quickly extinguished. But there's a strike on one tank.

When I saw that I thought - holy shit! But it's no big deal for the locals, because it's just one tank, not three or four like before. There's still a wall of smoke in the sea, and the smoke is blowing towards Novorossiysk. In general - the tank is burning but everyone is calm, laughing, like, "What are we supposed to be afraid of, the Ukrainians?".