📆 6 March 2026

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🇺🇸Fed: Energy Price Spike Unlikely to Cause Lasting Inflation

Waller Says Impact Depends on How Long the Shock Lasts

🟪Christopher Waller said the recent jump in energy prices is unlikely to create sustained inflation unless the shock persists for a longer period. He added that stronger PCE inflation and labor market data could prompt the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts, comments that helped the US Dollar edge higher.

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📆 9 March 2025

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🛢️Oil Shock Boosts the US Dollar

Middle East Conflict Adds FX Volatility

🟦The surge in oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict is strengthening the US Dollar, particularly against emerging market currencies. Higher energy prices and reduced expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are supporting the dollar, keeping the US Dollar Index near the top of its trading range. Analysts warn that currency markets could become more volatile if the conflict continues.

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📆 9 March 2026

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🥇Gold Stuck Between War Risks and Fed Outlook

Rising Oil and Strong Dollar Limit Upside

🟪Gold remains under pressure despite safe-haven demand from the escalating US-Iran conflict. The sharp surge in West Texas Intermediate due to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz has raised global inflation fears, strengthening the US Dollar and reducing expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. For now, Gold continues to trade in a range between roughly $5,000 and $5,200 as markets await key US inflation data.

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📆 10 March 2025

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🇺🇸Middle East Conflict Complicates Fed Policy Path

Oil Shock and Labor Risks Create Policy Dilemma

⬛️According to BNY Mellon, the Middle East conflict is hitting the US economy through higher oil prices, market volatility, and rising uncertainty—creating a negative supply shock. As a result, markets have reduced expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, now pricing in fewer than two cuts this year.

⬛️Despite this shift, the bank still expects three rate cuts later in the year as signs of labor market weakness become more evident.

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🥇Liquidity Selling Seen as Temporary

🟪Strategists at OCBC Bank say Gold’s recent pullback was mainly driven by liquidity needs and profit-taking rather than weaker fundamentals. During periods of geopolitical stress, investors sometimes sell assets like Gold to raise cash, but ongoing uncertainty typically revives safe-haven demand on price dips.

🟪At the same time, surging Oil prices have increased inflation concerns and strengthened the US Dollar, creating temporary pressure on Gold. However, the bank expects Gold to trade within a defined range in the near term as markets balance risk sentiment and geopolitical uncertainty.

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📆Forex Today: US Dollar retreats as mood improves on falling Oil prices

Risk appetite returns as Oil corrects from highs

⬛️The sharp decline in crude oil prices improved market sentiment and made it difficult for the US Dollar to maintain its strength. The USD Index slips below 99.00 as investors await US Existing Home Sales data and the ADP Employment Change 4-week average.

⬛️Energy ministers from the G7 are reportedly set to hold a virtual meeting to discuss a potential release of strategic oil reserves to address supply disruptions caused by the Iran war. After surging above $110 at the weekly open, WTI crude reversed sharply and now trades well below $90.

⬛️US President Donald Trump hinted that the military operations against Iran could end soon, while Iran’s IRGC warned that Tehran—not Washington—will decide when the war ends and threatened to block regional oil exports if attacks continue.

⬛️Wall Street’s main indexes closed higher on Monday and US stock futures extend gains, reflecting improving risk sentiment.

⬛️Gold rebounded after briefly falling toward $5,000 and now moves toward the $5,200 area.

⬛️In FX markets, EUR/USD holds steady near 1.1650, GBP/USD climbs to a fresh 10-day high above 1.3470, while USD/JPY trades under modest pressure below 157.50.

⬛️Strong Chinese trade data supported the Australian Dollar, pushing AUD/USD above 0.7100. Andrew Hauser noted that volatility in oil prices poses a significant challenge for central banks.

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📆 10 March 2026

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📆 11 March 2025

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🥇CPI Data Seen as Key for Fed Rate Path

🟪Gold pulled back slightly below 5,200 despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, though it remains near a one-week high. Softer Oil prices and easing inflation concerns have weighed on the US Dollar, offering support to the precious metal while safe-haven demand remains in place.

🟪Markets are now focused on the upcoming US inflation report, which could provide fresh clues about the rate path of the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, discussions led by the International Energy Agency about releasing strategic oil reserves have helped calm inflation fears.

🟪From a technical perspective, the broader outlook for Gold remains constructive, though fading momentum suggests a short-term consolidation phase before the next directional move.

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📆Forex Today: US inflation data, fluctuating Oil prices to drive action

Markets await CPI as Middle East tensions persist

⬛️The US Dollar struggles to gain traction in the European session on Wednesday as investors await the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data while closely monitoring developments in the Middle East crisis.

⬛️Reports indicate that US forces eliminated several Iranian naval vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has proposed the largest release of oil reserves in its history to ease the surge in crude prices. WTI crude trades around $83 after volatile price action.

⬛️Israel announced an additional wave of strikes targeting Tehran, while Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps escalated operations against US and Israeli interests in the region.

⬛️The USD Index fluctuates below 99.00 as investors prepare for the CPI release, which is expected to show annual inflation holding steady at 2.4%. Meanwhile, US equity futures trade modestly higher.

⬛️In the FX market, EUR/USD holds above 1.1600. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that uncertainty from the Middle East crisis has been surprisingly high.

⬛️GBP/USD trades slightly below 1.3450 after retreating from a March high, while USD/JPY moves sideways above 158.00 as markets expect the Bank of Japan to keep rates unchanged next week.

⬛️Gold, which rose about 1% on Tuesday, remains in a consolidation phase around $5,200 amid ongoing safe-haven demand.

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📆 11 March 2026

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📆 12 March 2025

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📆Forex Today: Oil and USD rise again as safe-haven flows return

Middle East escalation revives supply fears and risk-off sentiment

⬛️Financial markets turn risk-averse again in the second half of the week as tensions in the Middle East intensify. Investors will also monitor US Housing Starts, Goods Trade Balance and weekly Initial Jobless Claims data later today.

⬛️The International Energy Agency announced that its 32 member countries agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves. Despite this move, fresh geopolitical headlines revived concerns about global oil supply.

⬛️Reports indicate that Iraq halted operations at oil ports after Iran attacked two foreign oil tankers. Meanwhile, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates intercepted Iranian missiles and drones, while Saudi Arabia destroyed drones heading toward the Shaybah oilfield.

⬛️At the same time, China reportedly banned refined fuel exports for March to prevent a potential domestic fuel shortage amid the ongoing conflict.

⬛️Crude oil prices rise again, with WTI trading near $90 and Brent around $94.

⬛️The US Dollar benefits from the renewed risk-off mood, with the USD Index hovering just below 99.50 while US stock futures decline.

⬛️In FX markets, EUR/USD trades near 1.1550 under pressure, GBP/USD slips below 1.3400, while USD/JPY corrects slightly after reaching a multi-month high above 159.20.

⬛️Gold remains relatively stable but trades below the $5,200 level despite the safe-haven demand.

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🥇Gold Moves Toward 5,200 on Safe-Haven Demand

Middle East Tensions Keep Markets on Edge

🟪Gold climbed toward the 5,200 level as escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosted safe-haven demand. Ongoing conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel, along with attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf, has increased concerns about energy supply disruptions.

🟪However, rising oil prices and inflation risks could delay rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, while higher Treasury yields support the US Dollar, limiting further upside for Gold.

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📆 12 March 2026

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📆 13 March 2025

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