Reference plot of max wind speed distribution within the next 120 hrs from GFS 06Z run...

Friends in eastern 🇵🇭 #Mindanao and #EasternVisayas should stay alert and be prepared for weather changes... Disturbance #91W is expected to consolidate into a TD later this week before making landfall on #Mindanao this weekend...

The chance of TS formation cannot be ruled out... GFS and HWRF have been expecting TS strength for a few runs...

91W can bring more than 300 mm of rainfall to parts of #Mindanao and #Visayas... Please stay tuned for more updates in the coming few days...

You may have read about a potential TC in #Philippines next weekend...

Global models mostly expect a weak low moving over #Visayas... not even reaching TD strength as per ECM, JGSM, etc... Only GFS Deterministic suggests a higher intensity...

GFS Ensemble shows a large spread and poor agreement... More than 50% show no TC activity... Just keep monitoring...

Violent Typhoon #RAI (#OdettePH) reached Cat 5 strength (JTWC 140kt / JMA 105kt)... The eyewall warmed slightly and the eye became cloud-filled in the past hour as RAI approached #Siargao Island...

Friends in #Caraga and the #Visayas must get ready for torrential rains, destructive winds and storm surges...

#Surigao and #Hinatuan recorded over 150mm of rainfall in the past 24 hours...

(VIS from NRL)