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β‘οΈπ·πΊπΊπ¦π On the Similarities for the AFU between Battle for #Bakhmut and the Situation in #Avdeyevkaβ‘οΈ
βοΈThe AFU Position is deteriorating and the options for action become fewer.
πΉHow did Events Develop?
βͺοΈAt the first stage of the operation, the AFU failed to disrupt the execution of the Russian plan, in particular, to identify and hit places of troop staging, to prevent the advance of mechanised columns, etc.
βͺοΈApparently, at the start of active operations, the relationship between part of the AFU forces was disrupted and the interconnected fire system was partially paralysed. In particular, this manifested itself in a gradually weakening counterbattery fight. Currently, the situation does not change. The AFU positions and rear areas are under constant shelling. The response of the AFU is limited.
βͺοΈA significant part of the AFU's artillery and air defences were partially destroyed by strikes during the initial operation phase, and the surviving ones are suppressed on a regular basis. This allowed the Russian Army to use all types of artillery, as well as bomber and army aviation, including attack helicopters, for strikes.
πΉWhat is the Main Difficulty for the AFU?
βͺοΈThe city garrison receives ammo and other supplies via the #Berdychi - #Petrovskoye - #Semyonovka area and the #Orlovka - #Lastochkino line. The logistics system partially resembles the scheme used by the AFU during the defence of #Bakhmut. The transport and logistics systems in both cases relies on a road network clearly visible to Russian troops. Most of the routes are unpaved, the use of which for active transport in the autumn-winter period will be difficult and slow down the supply.
βͺοΈIt is noteworthy that in early October the AFU tried to move mechanised forces from the #Zaporozhye direction towards #Donetsk. In particular, Leopard 2 tanks, M2 Bradley IFVs and M113 APCs of the 47th Mechanized Brigade were spotted there. They are now assumed to be northwest of the city, but are not being sent into combat for security reasons.
πΉWhat is the Situation Now?
βͺοΈThe AFU now face active fights in the northern #Avdeyevka section, at #Slagheap and close to the railway in the area of #Koksokhim. The distance between the northern and southern sections has already been reduced to 7 km in a straight line. If this trend continues, the city garrisons and the troops in the areas of #Stepovoye, #Orlovka, #Severnoye and #Avdeyevka will begin to face problems with evacuating the wounded and supplying them in the same way as they did in #Bakhmut. It is unlikely that mosquito logistics using pickups will help where the density of Russian artillery fire is maximum.
βͺοΈNo massive inflow of fresh AFU forces into the area has been recorded so far, nor has there been any mass use of aircraft, AFVs or artillery. Some AFU troops are in the semicircle, holding fortified positions, but at the moment they are rather isolated from the active battle than actively participating in it.
βοΈIt is important to understand that the AFU does not have the initiative at #Avdeyevka at the moment and is in passive defence. This may be due both to the lack of forces in the area and the impossibility of transferring significant reinforcements to threatened areas, and to the lack of clear objectives by the command. In simple terms, the AFU command presumably has no consensus on whether the defence of the city should be continued or if they should be withdrawn to more advantageous positions.
π Given that #Ukraine's political leadership prefers to cling on territory at any cost and tends to ignore the military's advice, we can assume that a voluntary withdrawal from #Avdeyevka is unlikely. However, the defence of this area may become much more difficult for the AFU than in #Mariupol or #Bakhmut.
π Military Chronicles; 29 Oct 2023, 20:24
t.me/sitreports /@milchronicles/#ass/
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βοΈThe AFU Position is deteriorating and the options for action become fewer.
πΉHow did Events Develop?
βͺοΈAt the first stage of the operation, the AFU failed to disrupt the execution of the Russian plan, in particular, to identify and hit places of troop staging, to prevent the advance of mechanised columns, etc.
βͺοΈApparently, at the start of active operations, the relationship between part of the AFU forces was disrupted and the interconnected fire system was partially paralysed. In particular, this manifested itself in a gradually weakening counterbattery fight. Currently, the situation does not change. The AFU positions and rear areas are under constant shelling. The response of the AFU is limited.
βͺοΈA significant part of the AFU's artillery and air defences were partially destroyed by strikes during the initial operation phase, and the surviving ones are suppressed on a regular basis. This allowed the Russian Army to use all types of artillery, as well as bomber and army aviation, including attack helicopters, for strikes.
πΉWhat is the Main Difficulty for the AFU?
βͺοΈThe city garrison receives ammo and other supplies via the #Berdychi - #Petrovskoye - #Semyonovka area and the #Orlovka - #Lastochkino line. The logistics system partially resembles the scheme used by the AFU during the defence of #Bakhmut. The transport and logistics systems in both cases relies on a road network clearly visible to Russian troops. Most of the routes are unpaved, the use of which for active transport in the autumn-winter period will be difficult and slow down the supply.
βͺοΈIt is noteworthy that in early October the AFU tried to move mechanised forces from the #Zaporozhye direction towards #Donetsk. In particular, Leopard 2 tanks, M2 Bradley IFVs and M113 APCs of the 47th Mechanized Brigade were spotted there. They are now assumed to be northwest of the city, but are not being sent into combat for security reasons.
πΉWhat is the Situation Now?
βͺοΈThe AFU now face active fights in the northern #Avdeyevka section, at #Slagheap and close to the railway in the area of #Koksokhim. The distance between the northern and southern sections has already been reduced to 7 km in a straight line. If this trend continues, the city garrisons and the troops in the areas of #Stepovoye, #Orlovka, #Severnoye and #Avdeyevka will begin to face problems with evacuating the wounded and supplying them in the same way as they did in #Bakhmut. It is unlikely that mosquito logistics using pickups will help where the density of Russian artillery fire is maximum.
βͺοΈNo massive inflow of fresh AFU forces into the area has been recorded so far, nor has there been any mass use of aircraft, AFVs or artillery. Some AFU troops are in the semicircle, holding fortified positions, but at the moment they are rather isolated from the active battle than actively participating in it.
βοΈIt is important to understand that the AFU does not have the initiative at #Avdeyevka at the moment and is in passive defence. This may be due both to the lack of forces in the area and the impossibility of transferring significant reinforcements to threatened areas, and to the lack of clear objectives by the command. In simple terms, the AFU command presumably has no consensus on whether the defence of the city should be continued or if they should be withdrawn to more advantageous positions.
π Given that #Ukraine's political leadership prefers to cling on territory at any cost and tends to ignore the military's advice, we can assume that a voluntary withdrawal from #Avdeyevka is unlikely. However, the defence of this area may become much more difficult for the AFU than in #Mariupol or #Bakhmut.
π Military Chronicles; 29 Oct 2023, 20:24
t.me/sitreports /@milchronicles/#ass/
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β‘οΈπ·πΊπΊπ¦βοΈ Front #Summary for 8 Nov 2023 by 19:03β‘οΈ
πΉIn #Kherson Direction, the AFU is gaining ground near #Peschanoye, #Podstepnoye and partially in #Krynki. The enemy clearly intends to expand the combat zone. However, the risks are still local, the AFU needs much larger forces to really threaten the land corridor to #Crimea.
πΉIn #Zaporozhye Direction, all has been stable for many weeks. The AFU attack near #Verbovoye (they want to capture the heights northwest of the village), and they try to attack near #Pyatikhatki. From #Rabotino the AFU rush to #Kopani and #Novoprokopovka, all as unsuccessfully as a fortnight ago. Our army firmly holds the lines.
πΉIn #SouthDonetsk Direction, our forces slowly retake positions north of #Priyutnoye and near #Urozhaynoye. In the #Ugledar section, ours advanced slightly north of #Nikolskoye, and to the west they fight in the dacha area. At #Novomikhaylovka our army is approaching key heights. In #Maryinka without changes.
πΉIn #Donetsk Direction, there are fierce flank battles at #Avdeyevka. According to the latest data, 6 km are left for connecting both flanks. in the south our forces are clearing the forest plantations after the advance at #Severnoye. From #Vodyanoye we attack towards #Tonenkoye. In the north, our forces advanced well near the railway and are expanding the bridgehead near #Krasnogorovka, approaching #Stepovoye (#Petrovskoye) and #Koksokhim. The AFU command is moving its HQ to #Orlovka.
πΉIn #Bakhmut Direction, our forces counterattack quite successfully. At #Kleshcheyevka we control the railway line. In the north our forces pushed the AFU from #Berkhovka to back to #Bogdanovka.
πΉIn #Svatovo Direction, our army is expanding the zone of control around #Pervomayskoye. At #Kislovka, a section of the railway line to #Krakhmalnoye has been taken under control. A group reached the northern outskirts of #Sinkovka, and to the north there are advances at Liman Pervoye.
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πΉIn #Kherson Direction, the AFU is gaining ground near #Peschanoye, #Podstepnoye and partially in #Krynki. The enemy clearly intends to expand the combat zone. However, the risks are still local, the AFU needs much larger forces to really threaten the land corridor to #Crimea.
πΉIn #Zaporozhye Direction, all has been stable for many weeks. The AFU attack near #Verbovoye (they want to capture the heights northwest of the village), and they try to attack near #Pyatikhatki. From #Rabotino the AFU rush to #Kopani and #Novoprokopovka, all as unsuccessfully as a fortnight ago. Our army firmly holds the lines.
πΉIn #SouthDonetsk Direction, our forces slowly retake positions north of #Priyutnoye and near #Urozhaynoye. In the #Ugledar section, ours advanced slightly north of #Nikolskoye, and to the west they fight in the dacha area. At #Novomikhaylovka our army is approaching key heights. In #Maryinka without changes.
πΉIn #Donetsk Direction, there are fierce flank battles at #Avdeyevka. According to the latest data, 6 km are left for connecting both flanks. in the south our forces are clearing the forest plantations after the advance at #Severnoye. From #Vodyanoye we attack towards #Tonenkoye. In the north, our forces advanced well near the railway and are expanding the bridgehead near #Krasnogorovka, approaching #Stepovoye (#Petrovskoye) and #Koksokhim. The AFU command is moving its HQ to #Orlovka.
πΉIn #Bakhmut Direction, our forces counterattack quite successfully. At #Kleshcheyevka we control the railway line. In the north our forces pushed the AFU from #Berkhovka to back to #Bogdanovka.
πΉIn #Svatovo Direction, our army is expanding the zone of control around #Pervomayskoye. At #Kislovka, a section of the railway line to #Krakhmalnoye has been taken under control. A group reached the northern outskirts of #Sinkovka, and to the north there are advances at Liman Pervoye.
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β‘οΈπ·πΊπΊπ¦βοΈ Front #Summary for 12 Nov 2023 by 19:57β‘οΈ
πΉIn #Kherson Direction, counter fights in #Krynki continue. Despite effective Solntsepyok work, the AFU hold the central and northern part of the village. On the islands near #Poyma, #Peschanovka and #Podstepnoye, the AFU again used helicopters to attack our positions. The reserves have been gathered, it is important to prevent the enemy's breakthrough to the main routes, to avoid disruption of our entire grouping's logistics.
πΉIn #Zaporozhye Direction, despite heavy rain and strong winds, the AFU advanced a little further near #Novoprokopovka.The enemy retains the potential to attack and it is foolish to say that Kiev has run out of weapons or militants.
πΉIn #SouthDonetsk direction, our army counterattacked towards #Staromayorskoye, without success. At night we struck powerful AFU positions at the #Urozhaynoye - #Staromayorskoye line, so a continuation is likely. Ours advanced south of #Novomikhaylovka, approaching the village.
πΉIn #Donetsk Direction, on the #Avdeyevka northern flank, our forces advanced 0,5km and entrenched on the northeastern outskirts of #Stepovoye (#Petrovskoye), expanding the zone of control around the railway line. Our artillery relentlessly strikes AFU clusters in #Novokalinovo, from where they tried to attack our rear near #Krasnogorovka yesterday. At #Koksokhim, which is also under our fire, the fights are ongoing behind the railway west of #Slagheap. We gained a foothold along the forest belt. On the southern flank, ours advanced a bit on #Tsarskaya Okhota. The AFU command continues to transfer reserves from other areas.
πΉIn #Bakhmut Direction, on the southern flank, our army fights for AFU positions near #Kleshcheyevka and to the north, advance at #Bogdanovka.
πΉIn #Svatovo Direction, our forces are slowly expanding their bridgehead towards the #Oskol River. Fights are ongoing for positions near #Sinkovka, #Ivanovka and #Stelmakhovka.
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πΉIn #Kherson Direction, counter fights in #Krynki continue. Despite effective Solntsepyok work, the AFU hold the central and northern part of the village. On the islands near #Poyma, #Peschanovka and #Podstepnoye, the AFU again used helicopters to attack our positions. The reserves have been gathered, it is important to prevent the enemy's breakthrough to the main routes, to avoid disruption of our entire grouping's logistics.
πΉIn #Zaporozhye Direction, despite heavy rain and strong winds, the AFU advanced a little further near #Novoprokopovka.The enemy retains the potential to attack and it is foolish to say that Kiev has run out of weapons or militants.
πΉIn #SouthDonetsk direction, our army counterattacked towards #Staromayorskoye, without success. At night we struck powerful AFU positions at the #Urozhaynoye - #Staromayorskoye line, so a continuation is likely. Ours advanced south of #Novomikhaylovka, approaching the village.
πΉIn #Donetsk Direction, on the #Avdeyevka northern flank, our forces advanced 0,5km and entrenched on the northeastern outskirts of #Stepovoye (#Petrovskoye), expanding the zone of control around the railway line. Our artillery relentlessly strikes AFU clusters in #Novokalinovo, from where they tried to attack our rear near #Krasnogorovka yesterday. At #Koksokhim, which is also under our fire, the fights are ongoing behind the railway west of #Slagheap. We gained a foothold along the forest belt. On the southern flank, ours advanced a bit on #Tsarskaya Okhota. The AFU command continues to transfer reserves from other areas.
πΉIn #Bakhmut Direction, on the southern flank, our army fights for AFU positions near #Kleshcheyevka and to the north, advance at #Bogdanovka.
πΉIn #Svatovo Direction, our forces are slowly expanding their bridgehead towards the #Oskol River. Fights are ongoing for positions near #Sinkovka, #Ivanovka and #Stelmakhovka.
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