Good afternoon traders! Just closed my overnight trade from last night. I picked up +77 pips on the full box buy and +75 max pips on the half box buy.
The last 8 days have been killing it with the half box. We are climbing quickly near all time highs again with the strategy. Looking forward to seeing if we can close the month in good profit and solid February! Great work everyone!
The last 8 days have been killing it with the half box. We are climbing quickly near all time highs again with the strategy. Looking forward to seeing if we can close the month in good profit and solid February! Great work everyone!
Good morning traders! Make sure you close half your positions on the price action, overnight and weekly trades before the FOMC meeting today at 2:00 pm Eastern. :) I'll be posting some new signals here in telegram tonight after FOMC.
People tried to tell us that this time was different. The 4 year cycle of Bitcoin is dead. Wrong!!! Bitcoin is overvalued and it will continue to plunge until we get to about 40-60k by middle to end of this year.
Great work to everyone who believed in our analysis and took the step to short Bitcoin in 2026. I hope you enjoy your payday! You deserve this! 💯💥😎
Great work to everyone who believed in our analysis and took the step to short Bitcoin in 2026. I hope you enjoy your payday! You deserve this! 💯💥😎
Good afternoon traders! We just concluded our first ever options live trading webinar. ✅
We took a trade on $SOFI. I’m building out a wheel strategy trade which we taught in the webinar today.
Looking forward to our class tonight! We are talking about the “Greeks” which is class 3/10 in our options course. See you tonight at 9:00 pm eastern.
Here is the link to the classes:
https://www.tradingwithsteve.com/forexpluscalendar
We took a trade on $SOFI. I’m building out a wheel strategy trade which we taught in the webinar today.
Looking forward to our class tonight! We are talking about the “Greeks” which is class 3/10 in our options course. See you tonight at 9:00 pm eastern.
Here is the link to the classes:
https://www.tradingwithsteve.com/forexpluscalendar
🚨 Bitcoin Update – Read This Carefully 🚨
Right now Bitcoin is trading around $76,000, and no — I do NOT believe this is the bottom.
Based on market structure, liquidity, and the four-year cycle, I believe the most likely cycle bottom for Bitcoin is between $49,000 and $38,000.
Here’s why 👇
• There is massive liquidity and stop losses sitting below $50K
• Most traders are not expecting a move that deep — which is exactly why it’s dangerous
• Capitulation typically surprises the majority
• The market still needs to finish the four-year cycle
I fully expect volatility and upside bounces along the way, but do not be fooled.
Those moves are not the real bottom.
📉 My Plan:
• Continue short exposure on Bitcoin
• Ignore short-term relief rallies
• Wait patiently for price to reach $49K–$38K
🟢 When BTC reaches that zone:
That’s when I’ll start buying LEAPS (long calls) on IBIT, targeting expirations 1–1.5 years out (possibly extending further into 2027 as the cycle progresses).
⚠️ Important:
This is NOT a dip.
This is NOT the time to buy.
Buying here could mean waiting years just to break even.
If you wait a few more months, the market may offer far better prices — prices that will surprise a lot of people.
👏 Congrats to everyone who’s been shorting Bitcoin with me.
🧠 Patience wins cycles.
❗️Not financial advice. Just my personal market opinion.
Right now Bitcoin is trading around $76,000, and no — I do NOT believe this is the bottom.
Based on market structure, liquidity, and the four-year cycle, I believe the most likely cycle bottom for Bitcoin is between $49,000 and $38,000.
Here’s why 👇
• There is massive liquidity and stop losses sitting below $50K
• Most traders are not expecting a move that deep — which is exactly why it’s dangerous
• Capitulation typically surprises the majority
• The market still needs to finish the four-year cycle
I fully expect volatility and upside bounces along the way, but do not be fooled.
Those moves are not the real bottom.
📉 My Plan:
• Continue short exposure on Bitcoin
• Ignore short-term relief rallies
• Wait patiently for price to reach $49K–$38K
🟢 When BTC reaches that zone:
That’s when I’ll start buying LEAPS (long calls) on IBIT, targeting expirations 1–1.5 years out (possibly extending further into 2027 as the cycle progresses).
⚠️ Important:
This is NOT a dip.
This is NOT the time to buy.
Buying here could mean waiting years just to break even.
If you wait a few more months, the market may offer far better prices — prices that will surprise a lot of people.
👏 Congrats to everyone who’s been shorting Bitcoin with me.
🧠 Patience wins cycles.
❗️Not financial advice. Just my personal market opinion.
Congrats to everyone who believed in our analysis and took the Bitcoin short position with me since October. I’m up 273% since we took this position. 🤯
Just insane! Safe to say we were right and the HODLERS were wrong on this. Unfortunately I see many of them selling their Bitcoin for Pennies on the dollar soon just when we will turn around and pick up longs with our short profits.
Again, this year will still be bearish. Although the crazy move of this week to the downside is going to be rare. If we get a relief rally back to 75-80k again I’ll be buying more puts that expire at the end of this year.
By the way, no classes tonight. Next class will be tomorrow morning to recap the week.
USD/CAD price action trade looking good! 👍
Great work everyone! Happy for you! 💯🫡👏
Just insane! Safe to say we were right and the HODLERS were wrong on this. Unfortunately I see many of them selling their Bitcoin for Pennies on the dollar soon just when we will turn around and pick up longs with our short profits.
Again, this year will still be bearish. Although the crazy move of this week to the downside is going to be rare. If we get a relief rally back to 75-80k again I’ll be buying more puts that expire at the end of this year.
By the way, no classes tonight. Next class will be tomorrow morning to recap the week.
USD/CAD price action trade looking good! 👍
Great work everyone! Happy for you! 💯🫡👏
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🚨 CHF/JPY (Frank Yen) Trade Recap – Crowded Sentiment Setup 🚨
Great breakdown on the live call this morning walking through the CHF/JPY trade and how we’re using the Sentiment Index to identify crowded markets.
Here’s the edge:
When retail traders get EXTREMELY biased — typically 92% or more long or short — that becomes a crowded trade.
And crowded trades don’t last.
When positioning gets that stretched:
• The move is usually mature
• Retail is leaning heavily one direction
• Liquidity is building
• A reversal is likely brewing
Most of the time, we use retail sentiment as a contrarian indicator.
But when sentiment hits extreme levels like 92%+, your mindset shifts. Now you’re looking for exhaustion and the setup for a reversal.
Usually what happens?
The market makes one final push… stops out the last late traders… and then the real move begins.
That’s called fading — positioning for the turn before the bigger move unfolds.
⸻
👀 What I’m Watching Next
Right now, EUR/CHF retail traders are sitting around 92% long.
That’s crowded.
If that bias continues building, we could see a strong move develop soon as positioning unwinds.
These are exactly the types of setups we stalk patiently.
If you’re not already tracking sentiment, start here:
👉 https://www.tradingwithsteve.com/sentiment
Stay disciplined. Let the crowd show you where the opportunity is.
Great breakdown on the live call this morning walking through the CHF/JPY trade and how we’re using the Sentiment Index to identify crowded markets.
Here’s the edge:
When retail traders get EXTREMELY biased — typically 92% or more long or short — that becomes a crowded trade.
And crowded trades don’t last.
When positioning gets that stretched:
• The move is usually mature
• Retail is leaning heavily one direction
• Liquidity is building
• A reversal is likely brewing
Most of the time, we use retail sentiment as a contrarian indicator.
But when sentiment hits extreme levels like 92%+, your mindset shifts. Now you’re looking for exhaustion and the setup for a reversal.
Usually what happens?
The market makes one final push… stops out the last late traders… and then the real move begins.
That’s called fading — positioning for the turn before the bigger move unfolds.
⸻
👀 What I’m Watching Next
Right now, EUR/CHF retail traders are sitting around 92% long.
That’s crowded.
If that bias continues building, we could see a strong move develop soon as positioning unwinds.
These are exactly the types of setups we stalk patiently.
If you’re not already tracking sentiment, start here:
👉 https://www.tradingwithsteve.com/sentiment
Stay disciplined. Let the crowd show you where the opportunity is.
AUD/USD – Crowded Sentiment + Major Daily Level Ahead 👀
Right now, retail traders are 92% SHORT on AUD/USD.
That’s an extreme imbalance.
When positioning gets this one-sided, it usually doesn’t mean we’re at the top — it means there’s fuel sitting above price.
📌 Above 0.7200 we have:
A major psychological figure level
The middle of a daily SMC banker’s candle from 2022
The last major distribution zone before a strong downside move
This level hasn’t been revisited in years.
Here’s the high-probability sequence:
➡️ Price likely pushes higher into 0.7200–0.7230
➡️ Stops above get harvested
➡️ Then we watch for aggressive rejection
➡️ Structure shift on H1/H4
➡️ That’s where short setups become interesting
Important:
We do NOT short just because we are near resistance.
We short AFTER:
Liquidity is taken
We see a strong bearish reaction
Market structure breaks
Until that happens, this still looks like squeeze continuation territory.
Patience here is key.
Let the market reach into the pink daily zone…
Then we look for confirmation to fade.
Right now, retail traders are 92% SHORT on AUD/USD.
That’s an extreme imbalance.
When positioning gets this one-sided, it usually doesn’t mean we’re at the top — it means there’s fuel sitting above price.
📌 Above 0.7200 we have:
A major psychological figure level
The middle of a daily SMC banker’s candle from 2022
The last major distribution zone before a strong downside move
This level hasn’t been revisited in years.
Here’s the high-probability sequence:
➡️ Price likely pushes higher into 0.7200–0.7230
➡️ Stops above get harvested
➡️ Then we watch for aggressive rejection
➡️ Structure shift on H1/H4
➡️ That’s where short setups become interesting
Important:
We do NOT short just because we are near resistance.
We short AFTER:
Liquidity is taken
We see a strong bearish reaction
Market structure breaks
Until that happens, this still looks like squeeze continuation territory.
Patience here is key.
Let the market reach into the pink daily zone…
Then we look for confirmation to fade.
Good morning traders!
There will be no live trading call this morning — I have an appointment I need to be at. Appreciate your understanding 🙏
But we’ve got a BIG night ahead 👇
🔥 8:00 PM EST — Sentiment Live Trading Demonstration
🔥 9:00 PM EST — COT Report Call
Tonight’s Sentiment Demonstration is going to be awesome.
I’ll be covering:
✅ How to identify which pairs are about to reverse HARD
✅ How to properly scale and size into trades
✅ How to position yourself before the big move
✅ Advanced tips to sharpen your edge
If you want to understand how we spot crowded trades and catch those major reversals… you don’t want to miss this.
You can watch both classes live here on the calendar:
👇👇👇
https://www.tradingwithsteve.com/forexpluscalendar
Let’s finish the week strong 💪📈
There will be no live trading call this morning — I have an appointment I need to be at. Appreciate your understanding 🙏
But we’ve got a BIG night ahead 👇
🔥 8:00 PM EST — Sentiment Live Trading Demonstration
🔥 9:00 PM EST — COT Report Call
Tonight’s Sentiment Demonstration is going to be awesome.
I’ll be covering:
✅ How to identify which pairs are about to reverse HARD
✅ How to properly scale and size into trades
✅ How to position yourself before the big move
✅ Advanced tips to sharpen your edge
If you want to understand how we spot crowded trades and catch those major reversals… you don’t want to miss this.
You can watch both classes live here on the calendar:
👇👇👇
https://www.tradingwithsteve.com/forexpluscalendar
Let’s finish the week strong 💪📈
🚨 JOIN ME LIVE TONIGHT! 🚨
We’re doing a Crowded Sentiment Live Trading Demonstration at 8:00 PM Eastern.
If retail is 90%+ biased in one direction…
a reversal is usually loading.
Tonight I’m going to show you:
✅ How to identify 90%+ retail bias
✅ How to spot when a reversal is about to hit
✅ How to scale into crowded trades properly
✅ How to avoid getting trapped with retail
If you’ve ever wondered how we catch those big reversal moves… this is the class.
🗓 Date: 02/12/2026
⏰ Time: 8:00 PM Eastern
📍 Live on Zoom
Join here:
👉 https://us06web.zoom.us/j/9457854467
We’re doing a Crowded Sentiment Live Trading Demonstration at 8:00 PM Eastern.
If retail is 90%+ biased in one direction…
a reversal is usually loading.
Tonight I’m going to show you:
✅ How to identify 90%+ retail bias
✅ How to spot when a reversal is about to hit
✅ How to scale into crowded trades properly
✅ How to avoid getting trapped with retail
If you’ve ever wondered how we catch those big reversal moves… this is the class.
🗓 Date: 02/12/2026
⏰ Time: 8:00 PM Eastern
📍 Live on Zoom
Join here:
👉 https://us06web.zoom.us/j/9457854467
Good evening traders! 🚨 Sentiment Live Trading Demonstration starts in 10 minutes.
Join here: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/9457854467
Join here: https://us06web.zoom.us/j/9457854467
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Join our Cloud HD Video Meeting
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Great to see everyone last night! Here is the recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbtFl2sWY5g
Heads up traders! ❗️
Since the U.S. Stock and Forex markets are closed in the morning, I am moving our class schedule for tomorrow to Tuesday. See attached or you can visit the calendar classes here:
https://www.tradingwithsteve.com/forexpluscalendar
Let's have a great week!
Since the U.S. Stock and Forex markets are closed in the morning, I am moving our class schedule for tomorrow to Tuesday. See attached or you can visit the calendar classes here:
https://www.tradingwithsteve.com/forexpluscalendar
Let's have a great week!
🚨NEW SIGNAL/ TRADE IDEA
GBP/USD SELL
ENTRY TYPE: SELL MARKET
ENTRY PRICE: 1.35371
TAKE PROFIT: 1.33299
STOP LOSS: 1.36404
PIPS AT RISK: 103
POTENTIAL PIP REWARD: 207
GBP/USD SELL
ENTRY TYPE: SELL MARKET
ENTRY PRICE: 1.35371
TAKE PROFIT: 1.33299
STOP LOSS: 1.36404
PIPS AT RISK: 103
POTENTIAL PIP REWARD: 207
🚨 LIVE Overnight Trading Webinar — Starting Soon! 🌙📈
Join us tonight at 8:00 PM Eastern (starts in about 50 minutes) to learn how our overnight trading strategy works while you sleep.
👉 Click here to join:
https://us06web.zoom.us/j/9457854467
Don’t miss this — perfect for anyone who wants to trade without being glued to the charts all day.
See you there!
Join us tonight at 8:00 PM Eastern (starts in about 50 minutes) to learn how our overnight trading strategy works while you sleep.
👉 Click here to join:
https://us06web.zoom.us/j/9457854467
Don’t miss this — perfect for anyone who wants to trade without being glued to the charts all day.
See you there!
Zoom
Join our Cloud HD Video Meeting
Zoom is the leader in modern enterprise cloud communications.