⚠️ Key Events This Week

The week is centered around inflation signals and Fed communication. At the same time, the main driver remains the Iran conflict and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Oil is already reacting, and that feeds directly into inflation and market sentiment, often overriding macro data.

🟡Monday

● March Existing Home Sales

This shows housing demand under current rates. It reflects how sensitive consumers are to financing conditions.

🔴 Tuesday

● March PPI Inflation data

Producer prices give an early signal of inflation pressure and can shape expectations ahead of CPI and Fed decisions.

🟡 Thursday

● Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
● Initial Jobless Claims

The Philly Fed index gives a read on manufacturing activity. Jobless claims provide a fast signal on labor market conditions.

🟡 Throughout the week

● Multiple Fed speakers

A busy week of Fed commentary. Markets will watch for any shift in tone, especially with oil rising and inflation risks building.

Main focus: Iran headlines and oil, with macro data playing a secondary role.

✅ @trading

💧 Trader accidentally bought 2000 barrels of real oil

A trader ended up with a physical position and now has to take delivery of 2000 barrels from the Cushing terminal in Oklahoma before April 14.

They were offered two options: rent tanker trucks or arrange pipeline transport to move the oil.

✅ @trading

⚡ JUST IN: Iran is exploring the possibility of stopping uranium enrichment as a condition for ending the war, according to New York Post.

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⚡ JUST IN: Pakistan's Defense Minister stated that a new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran will begin soon.

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⚡ JUST IN: Trump warns Iran that any ships near the U.S. blockade will be immediately eliminated using the same kill system as against drug dealers at sea.

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⚡ JUST IN: Iran has declared that it is ready to continue the war with the United States.

🎯@trading

⚡ JUST IN: Pakistan foreign ministry says it has offered the U.S. and Iran to hold a second round of talks in Islamabad, no date or time has been set yet.

Iranian embassy official says discussions could take place this week or early next week.

🎯@trading

❓Markets near highs, but macro says otherwise

Markets are sitting ~2% below all-time highs, yet the macro backdrop still looks unresolved.

Current pricing assumes energy returns to pre-war levels. That looks optimistic. Second-order effects from supply chains and input shortages are still ahead and not fully reflected.

This creates a clear disconnect between price and reality.

Liquidity was increased on this move.

Feels like the market is leaning too hard into a best-case scenario.

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⚡ JUST IN: Kevin Warsh, the potential next Federal Reserve Chair under Donald Trump, disclosed holdings including Polymarket, SpaceX, and cryptocurrency assets.

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❕ Trading is not gambling, but it can look identical

At the surface, trading and gambling feel the same. You click, you take risk, money is on the line. The difference comes from what happens before the execution.

A trader defines risk in advance, knows where to get involved, and understands what needs to happen for the idea to work. A gambler is focused on being active and chasing outcomes without a clear plan.

Drawdown makes this gap obvious. One side treats it as part of the system, the other tries to recover losses quickly and usually makes things worse.

Edge can be broken down simply:

🛍 Opportunity: spotting something mispriced before it gets reflected in price

🛍 Process: a repeatable way to act on it with clear rules and sizing

Without that structure, execution becomes guesswork. More trades do not improve odds, and lack of discipline compounds losses.

Most accounts do not fail because of the market. They fail because risk was never properly defined.

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⚡ JUST IN: Trump said that the war with Iran is “very close to over”

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⚡ JUST IN: The Pentagon is deploying thousands of additional troops to the Middle East, including about 6,000 aboard the USS George H.W. Bush and 4,200 with a Boxer Amphibious Ready Group.

More deployments are expected.

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⚡ JUST IN: Trump hopes that Warsh will be confirmed as head of the Fed as early as next week.

The consensus is that Warsh will quickly cut rates, markets will soar, and everyone will become fabulously wealthy 🙃

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⚡ JUST IN: Trump says China has agreed not to send weapons to Iran.

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⚡ JUST IN: Allbirds stock, $BIRD, surges over +200% after announcing pivot from shoes to AI.

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⚡ JUST IN: The US and Iran are considering a two-week extension of their ceasefire.

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⚡ JUST IN: Tesla shares are poised for their biggest one-day gain in over nine months.

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⚡ JUST IN: The S&P 500 has reached a new record high, rising 11% since the March 30th low.

This surge added $6 trillion in market capitalization over just 12 trading days.

🎯@trading

⚡ JUST IN: Trump says he is “trying to get a little breathing room between Israel and Lebanon” and that “it will happen tomorrow.”

🎯@trading