London-based hedge fund Caxton Associates is down more than $1.3B in March. The fund run by Andrew Law dropped about 15% after betting on UK rate cuts and a rise in gold.

The Iran conflict flipped both trades. Gilt yields jumped to 2008 highs, while gold fell around 15% since the war began.

Even large funds get caught on the wrong side when the macro shifts fast.
So don’t stress over a -5% on a virtual prop account.

This was a tough month across the board.

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🚨 UBS halted withdrawals on a $469 million real estate fund for up to 3 years.

Translation: “Sorry, we don’t have your money.”

This is how it starts.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Trump and senior White House officials have been informed that Iran's counter-proposal to the US peace plan will be announced today, according to CBS News.

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S&P 500 Loses $4.5 Trillion Since Iran War Began

Too much winning

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How crude oil is extracted from the ground

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Japan sending help to open Strait of Hormuz 😂

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⚡️ JUST IN: US prepares for possible ground invasion into Iran

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Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament accused the US of publicly promoting negotiations while secretly planning a ground attack.

He stated that Iran’s armed forces are prepared and waiting for the US to arrive.

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Traders trying to predict the market

The market:

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When someone tries to rob a crypto bro who’s already down, -90% this year.

✅ Subscribe to @cryp

⚠️ Key Events This Week

The week is centered around US labor and consumer data. At the same time, the main driver remains the Iran conflict, now in its fourth week. Oil prices are already pushing higher and feeding into inflation and sentiment, which puts the Fed in a difficult position between rising prices and slowing growth

🔴 Monday

● Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Markets will watch for any shift in tone. With oil rising and uncertainty elevated, Powell’s comments on inflation and policy path can move rates and the dollar.

🟡 Tuesday

● March Consumer Confidence
● February JOLTS Job Openings

Confidence reflects how consumers react to higher energy prices. JOLTS shows labor demand. Together they give a read on whether the economy is holding up or starting to slow.

🔴 Wednesday

● March ADP Nonfarm Employment
● March Retail Sales

ADP gives an early signal ahead of the official jobs report. Retail sales show real consumer spending, which is key as higher fuel costs start to pressure demand.

🟡 Thursday

● Initial Jobless Claims

A fresh read on the labor market. Rising claims point to cooling conditions, while stable data supports continued strength in employment.

🔴 Friday

● March Jobs Report

The main macro release of the week. This will confirm whether the labor market is weakening or still holding. It directly impacts Fed expectations and market direction.

Main focus: Friday’s jobs report and Iran headlines, with oil driving the macro backdrop.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Trump says the US is in “serious discussions with a new and more reasonable regime to end our military operations in Iran.”

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🚨 Powell emergency speech in 1 hour

Reports say the Fed may address rate hikes after the recent market move and oil spike.

How will the market react?
❤️ Up
💔 Down

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Powell Remarks

-Overall the research tends to find that buying long-term assets lowers rates and supports the economy, I'd be in the camp that there is something to that

-There are risks to both sides of mandate

-Expected risks to large balance sheet have not materialized

-No sign past Fed bond buying was inflationary

-We are committed to getting inflation back to 2% on sustained basis

-We don't know what economic effects of current situation will be

-Fed mindful of missing inflation target for some time

-Inflation expectations appear anchored

-Not facing yet the question of what to do

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📉 The biggest trading losses in history

If you think your losses are bad, zoom out. Some of the biggest players in the world have blown up billions from one wrong idea.

📊 Adolf Merckle — ~$1B on Volkswagen
Caught in the 2008 short squeeze. Porsche locked most of the float, shorts couldn’t cover, price exploded. A normal short turned into a forced exit at extreme levels.

📊 Hunt Brothers — ~$1.7B on silver
Tried to corner silver with heavy leverage. Prices surged, then rules changed and the market reversed. Margin calls forced a brutal unwind.

📊 Metallgesellschaft — ~$1.3B on oil
Used short term futures to hedge long term exposure. Oil moved against them, structure broke, liquidity pressure forced losses.

📊 Orange County (Robert Citron) — ~$1.7B
Leveraged rate trades via repos. Rates moved higher, funding costs jumped, portfolio collapsed into bankruptcy.

📊 LTCM — ~$1.8B+
Highly leveraged arbitrage fund. Russia default broke correlations, spreads widened, forced liquidation wiped capital.

📊 UBS (Kweku Adoboli) — ~$2.3B
Unauthorized positions built over time. Risk was hidden until losses became too large to manage.

📊 Aracruz — ~$2.5B on FX
Tried to hedge USD exposure but used aggressive derivatives. Currency moved wrong way, losses expanded beyond a normal hedge.

📊 Sumitomo (Yasuo Hamanaka) — ~$2.6B on copper
Oversized positions to influence the market. Once control slipped, losses escalated fast.

📊 Société Générale (Jérôme Kerviel) — ~$4.9B
Hidden index positions far beyond limits. Unwound during a falling market, locking in losses.

🛍 Amaranth (Brian Hunter) — ~$6.6B
Huge bet on gas spreads. Move went opposite, margin pressure forced fund collapse.

🛍 Morgan Stanley — ~$9B on subprime
Massive exposure to mortgage derivatives. Housing turned, models failed, losses cascaded.

🛍 JPMorgan (London Whale) — up to ~$9B
Hedge turned into oversized position. Market moved against them, exits made it worse.

Same pattern across all of them.
The idea is rarely the problem.
Size and risk control decide the outcome.

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⚡️ JUST IN: The US Department of War announces it will be holding a press conference at 8 AM ET today.

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"day trading is a scam"

"you can't make money trading"

Those are the words spoken by the fearful the ones who quit.

Don't let losers influence you with their negative world view.

You are strong.
They are weak.

You can do it brother.

✅ @trading