“If you don’t read the newspaper, you’re uninformed. If you do read it, you’re misinformed.”

- Denzel Washington

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🗣️ Trump over the last 36 hours:

Friday, 3:40 PM ET: "I don't want to do a ceasefire with Iran."

Friday, 5:15 PM ET: The US is "considering winding down" the war with Iran.

Today, 2:00 PM ET: Axios reports Trump is planning "peace talks."

⚡️ Now: "If Iran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours the US will obliterate Iran's power plants."

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⚠️ Key Events This Week

The week is centered around growth and inflation expectations, but the main driver remains the conflict around Iran. Oil is the key channel, especially after Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum tied to the Strait of Hormuz.

🔴 Tuesday

● March S&P Global Services PMI data

This shows how strong the service sector is right now. Strong data supports growth, while weaker numbers point to slowing demand.

🔴 Wednesday

● US Crude Oil Inventory data

This reflects supply and demand in the oil market. Large changes can move oil prices and shift inflation expectations.

🟡 Thursday

● Initial Jobless Claims data

A fast read on the labor market. Rising claims suggest cooling conditions, while stable data supports a stronger economy.

🟡Friday

● March MI Consumer Sentiment data
● March MI Inflation Expectations data

Sentiment shows how consumers view the economy. Inflation expectations matter because they influence spending and Fed policy outlook.

Main focus: Tuesday’s PMI data and Iran headlines, with oil as the key transmission channel.

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⚡️ BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Trump says Iran and US had productive conversations.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Iran says there are no talks with Washington and claims Trump backed off after warnings Iran would target regional power plants

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⚡️ JUST IN: Trump says a deal with Iran could be “5 days or sooner,” says he is not sure what Iranian media is referring to, and confirms talks took place last night

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⚡️ JUST IN: Iran’s foreign ministry says it had no talks with the United States and its Strait of Hormuz stance and war conditions are unchanged

...

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📈 The real path of a trader looks like this

At the start, everything feels easy. A few wins and it feels like you’ve cracked the market.

Then losses come in, confidence drops, and you realize how little you actually understand.

This is the Dunning–Kruger effect.

A curve where beginners overestimate their skill, then go through a deep phase of doubt before real competence starts to build.

Most never make it past that drop.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei has agreed to negotiate with the US and reach an agreement - Al Arabiya reports citing Israeli media.

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⚠️ Trump Insiders Are Already Trading It

Large positions hit the market minutes before Trump’s announcement.

Around $580M in oil shorts and $1.5B in S&P 500 longs were opened just 15 minutes before the speech.

At the same time, about 6,200 Brent and WTI contracts changed hands, with aggressive selling right before the news.

That kind of positioning doesn’t look accidental.

✅ @trading