⚡️ JUST IN: Taiwan reports large-scale Chinese military aircraft presence near island.

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⚠️ Key Events This Week

The week is centered around inflation data and the Fed rate decision. At the same time, escalating tensions around Iran add geopolitical risk. Oil will be the key channel through which headlines can quickly impact markets.

🟡 Tuesday

● February Pending Home Sales

This report shows how housing demand is evolving under current mortgage rates. Housing activity is sensitive to rates and gives a read on how restrictive financial conditions are for consumers.

🔴 Wednesday

● February PPI Inflation data
● Fed Interest Rate Decision and Statement

Producer prices show inflation pressure earlier in the supply chain and can signal where consumer inflation may head next. The Fed decision will shape expectations for the path of rates and liquidity conditions across markets.

🟡 Thursday

● Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
● January New Home Sales

The Philly Fed index gives a fast read on manufacturing activity and business sentiment. New home sales show how builders and buyers are responding to current borrowing costs.

Main focus: Wednesday’s PPI data and the Fed rate decision, along with any headlines around Iran.

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🚀 Pentagon Demonstrates AI System for Planning Strikes

The U.S. Department of Defense showed Project Maven, an AI system developed with Palantir that helps plan military strikes.

A military operator designates a target, after which the system analyzes available options and suggests the most effective way to eliminate it.

The mission is then sent into the command system where the strike can be tracked in real time.

The idea is to speed up battlefield decisions and move advanced AI directly into combat operations.

The future of warfare is starting to look very different.

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💵 Bullish Bets on the US Dollar Surge

Demand for bullish dollar options is jumping.

The 1-month risk reversal on the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reached +92 bps, the highest level since Nov 2022, showing strong demand for bets on dollar strength.

In January the metric was −90 bps, marking a sharp sentiment reversal in just a few months.

Traders are now paying the largest premium for bullish USD options in over 3 years, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index trades near a 3-month high.

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Normie: "You shouldn't work so much, you should have fun instead"

Making money and winning in the market is one of the most fun games you can play though.

You should try it.

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🪙 Investors rush out of gold

The largest gold ETFs saw a record $5.52B outflow in a single week.

This comes just one week after roughly $4B of inflows, one of the strongest weekly numbers in at least 5 years.

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🇺🇸 US PPI came in at 3.4% vs 2.9% expected.

🇺🇸 US Core PPI came in at 3.9% vs 3.7% expected.

Producer prices are rising faster than forecast, which points to upstream inflation pressure.

Markets may start pricing a more cautious Fed again.

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Fed Chair Powell getting ready to keep interest rates unchanged at today's FOMC meeting despite World War 3 popping off in the Middle East.

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The Federal Reserve keeps interest rates at 3.50%–3.75%.

All eyes are now on Powell’s speech in 30 minutes.

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Powell: Inflation could go higher in the near-term

Powell: No rate cuts until Fed sees inflation progress

This is hawkish language.

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