⚠️ Key Events This Week

The week is centered around US inflation. Wednesday brings the February CPI report, while Friday delivers a dense macro block with the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, GDP data, and labor market indicators. Markets will mainly be watching whether inflation continues to cool or remains sticky enough to delay rate cuts.

🟡 Monday

● US Daylight Saving Time shift

US markets move to daylight saving time, which shifts the trading schedule relative to Europe and other regions. For many traders outside the US, the New York session and US data will arrive one hour earlier.

🟡 Tuesday

● Oracle $ORCL earnings
● Existing Home Sales

Oracle earnings may influence sentiment around enterprise tech and AI infrastructure. Housing data gives a quick read on demand in the US property market under current mortgage rates.

🔴 Wednesday

● February CPI Inflation data

This is the key macro release of the week. The report shows how quickly consumer prices are rising and strongly influences expectations for Federal Reserve rate policy.

🔴 Thursday

● Initial Jobless Claims
● Adobe $ADBE earnings

Jobless claims provide an early signal of labor market conditions. Adobe earnings will be watched for signals about enterprise software demand and broader tech spending.

🔴 Friday

● Core PCE Inflation data
● Q4 GDP data
● JOLTS Job Openings
● Consumer Sentiment

Main focus: Wednesday’s CPI and Friday’s macro cluster.

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⚡️ JUST IN: US military has been put on high alert for a ground invasion in Iran.

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⚡️ JUST IN: G7 official says energy ministers meet Tuesday and leaders later this week, with leaders likely deciding on oil reserve releases as timing and analysis are still needed.

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🃏 5 Poker Lessons That Make You a Better Trader

One of the largest hedge funds in the world trains traders with poker.

Jeff Yass built Susquehanna into a $500B+ firm, and poker is part of their internal training.

The logic is simple.

Poker teaches the same skills that define good traders: probability thinking, risk control, position sizing, and emotional discipline during variance.

Here are five poker concepts that translate directly into trading.

📊 Position sizing

Even pocket aces lose about 1 out of 5 times in Texas Hold’em. If a player pushed their entire bankroll every time, they would eventually go broke.

Trading works the same way. Even the best setup loses sometimes. Large position sizes turn normal losing streaks into deep drawdowns. Professionals focus on how much they can afford to lose. Survival through variance is the game.

📊 Table selection

Even the 10th best poker player will struggle if everyone at the table is elite.

Markets behave similarly. Many retail traders jump straight into the most competitive arenas like major FX pairs or index futures. Less crowded markets often offer better opportunities because large institutions cannot deploy capital there efficiently.

📊 Conviction should change size

In poker, stronger hands justify larger bets.

Many traders ignore this and use the same size on every trade. Experienced traders scale exposure with conviction. When the setup is strong, size increases. When conditions are unclear, size stays small or the trade is skipped.

📊 Process over outcome

A correct decision can still lose money. A bad decision can still win.

Short term results are driven by variance. Professionals judge the decision, not the single outcome. The key question is whether the system was followed.

📊 Emotional resilience

Poker forces players to deal with swings. There will be losing streaks and hot streaks.

The best players focus only on the next decision. Traders need the same mindset. Execute the process and let probabilities play out over many trades.

Poker compresses the core lessons of trading into one game: probabilities, discipline, and risk management. No surprise some of the best trading firms still use it as training.

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Oil pumped nearly 30% intraday and erased the entire move in the same day.

One of the most violent single-day reversals the market has seen in decades.

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📈 The Small-Town Investment Club That Became a Market Legend

In the 1980s, a group of 16 women from the small town of Beardstown, Illinois suddenly became famous on the US stock market.

Most of them had no investment background. The club was founded in 1983 by 62 year old bank employee Betty Sinnock after she noticed bank clients making money from stocks while brokers refused to work with her.

She invited friends and created an investment club that included teachers, nurses, farmers and small business owners aged from 41 to 87.

They followed a simple value approach. The women preferred companies with steady growth, strong management and reasonable prices, while avoiding businesses they considered unethical.

Some decisions were surprisingly intuitive. They bought shares of a shoe company because they personally wore the brand, and purchased Hershey stock because they loved chocolate.

After 10 years the club’s initial $1,600 investment grew to more than $80,000.

Media attention exploded. Their book became a New York Times bestseller and journalists claimed their annual returns reached 23.4%, higher than many professional investors.

Later it turned out the calculation contained an accounting error. The real annual return was about 9.1%, while the S&P 500 delivered roughly 14.9% during the same period.

Even so, the story had a huge cultural impact. Between 1983 and 1997 the number of investment clubs in the US grew from about 7,000 to 28,000, and women became a rapidly growing group of investors.

The Beardstown club still exists today and its portfolio reportedly includes companies like Amazon, Facebook and Apple with a total value of more than $500,000.

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🇺🇸 Pentagon Spent $93B in End-of-Year Budget Rush

In September 2025 the Pentagon spent a record $93.4B trying to use up its budget before the fiscal year ended.

US agencies often follow a “use it or lose it” rule. If allocated funds are not spent by year end, next year’s budget may be reduced.

Some notable purchases during the spending surge:

➡️ ~$15.1M on ribeye steaks
➡️ ~$6.9M on lobster tails
➡️ ~$2M on Alaskan king crab
➡️ ~$1M on salmon
➡️ $139K for ~272K donut orders
➡️ $124K on refrigerators
➡️ $225.6M on furniture
➡️ $5.3M on Apple devices
➡️ $4M on Samsung equipment
➡️ $98K for a Steinway grand piano
➡️ $26K for a violin

September is often the biggest spending month for US government agencies as departments rush to exhaust remaining budgets.

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📉 Volkswagen to Cut 50,000 Jobs

Volkswagen plans to eliminate around 50,000 jobs, about 17% of its German workforce, as profits fall to their lowest level in a decade.

The company’s profit dropped 44% last year and pressure is coming from several directions.

📊 Chinese EV makers like BYD are taking market share in China

📊 U.S. tariffs on imported cars are costing VW nearly €3B per year

📊 Rising energy and labor costs in Germany are forcing factory shutdowns

Europe’s largest automaker is now restructuring to stabilize its finances.

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