📈 Extreme debt cycles and gold’s role

Periods of extreme debt have historically coincided with rising geopolitical tension. That pattern has repeated across major global turning points.

If deglobalization is structural rather than temporary, portfolio construction shifts with it. Politically neutral hard assets move from tactical exposure to core allocation.

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🇺🇸 US services PMI hits highest level since 2022

US ISM Services PMI came in at 56.1, well above the 53.5 forecast and the highest reading since 2022.

At the same time, the Prices Paid index dropped to 63, the lowest level in 11 months.

ISM PMI is based on surveys of purchasing managers. Readings above 50 signal expansion in economic activity.

Strong activity with cooling price pressure is the combination markets like to see.

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⚡️ JUST IN: Pentagon to ask Congress for $50 billion in additional funding for the conflict with Iran.

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⚡️ BREAKING: Trump officially nominates Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair

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📊 Stocks vs inflation over the last 50 years

A simple long-term comparison puts inflation and equities into perspective.

Over the past 50 years:

⚪️ US inflation (CPI): up 6x
⚪️ S&P 500 dividends: up 21x
⚪️ S&P 500 total return: up 265x

The takeaway is straightforward. Over long periods, equities have historically outpaced inflation by a wide margin.

Time in the market tends to do the heavy lifting.

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📊 US jobless claims come in below expectations

Initial US jobless claims totaled 213,000, slightly below the 215,000 expected.

Jobless claims track how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the week.

Lower readings usually signal a stronger labor market, since fewer workers are losing jobs.

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⚡️ Trump: People are loving what's happening... Cuba is going to fall too.

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⚡️ JUST IN: The Trump Administration is preparing a rule that would restrict AI chip shipments globally without US approval.

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📊 US February jobs report signals labor market cooling

The latest US labor market data came in mixed, with job growth sharply missing expectations while wage growth stayed firm.

🔴 Nonfarm Payrolls: -92K vs +59K expected
🟡 Unemployment rate: 4.4% vs 4.3% expected
🟡 Average hourly earnings: +0.4% M/M vs +0.3% expected
🟡 Average hourly earnings: +3.8% Y/Y vs +3.7% expected

Nonfarm Payrolls measure how many jobs were added or lost across the US economy, excluding farming. A negative print signals contraction in hiring.

The unemployment rate rising to 4.4% suggests the labor market is starting to soften, but wage growth remaining strong indicates inflation pressure from salaries is still present.

For markets, weaker employment with still rising wages complicates the Federal Reserve’s outlook on rate cuts.

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🎙 Stan Druckenmiller on edge, sizing, and nerve

Stan Druckenmiller’s latest interview with Morgan Stanley is worth your time. A lot of it cuts straight to how real money is made.

📊 Contrarianism is overrated. The crowd is right 80% of the time. Just don’t get trapped in the other 20%.

📊 Edge is not being right. It’s sizing when you’re right and cutting when you’re wrong. Pure Soros playbook.

📊 You don’t need to understand every detail. He couldn’t spell Nvidia. He trusted smarter people on the tech and made the call.

📊 Volatility is not the enemy. It’s your entry if you have conviction.

📊 TA and price/news signals worked until everyone learned them. Edge fades once it becomes consensus.

📊 Courage matters more than wisdom. He says he’s smarter now, but was a better PM in his 30s because he had more nerve.

📊 Scars stay. Mistakes are just moments. Move on.

📊 Teva sat between growth and value. Nobody wanted it. That’s where opportunity lives.

📊 Watch where the smartest young people go. He tracked Stanford kids moving from crypto to AI before it was obvious.

📊 Knowing something is big doesn’t mean you’ll hold it perfectly. He sold Nvidia at 800. It went to 1400.

📊 Pattern recognition compounds. There’s no shortcut. Just decades of reps.

Hard to argue with 40 years of scars and sizing.

✅ @trading