🇺🇸 US Oil Output Turns Negative Year Over Year

US oil production has slipped into annual decline for the first time in 5 years.

At the same time, oil is one of the most heavily shorted assets in over a decade.

Supply tightening while positioning leans hard one way.


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The official White House account congratulated Americans on Presidents’ Day with a graphic featuring Donald Trump and the quote: “I was the hunted, and now I’m the hunter.”


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🎯 The problem with perfect entries

Perfectionism around entries is one of the most expensive traits in trading.

Many traders obsess over the exact level. The clean wick touch. The perfect fill. It looks like discipline. In reality, it creates hesitation and missed trades.

Markets are probabilistic. When you draw a single line and expect price to react perfectly from it, you are forcing rigidity onto something fluid.

A good trade is not about how pretty the entry looks. It is about context, confirmation, and controlled risk.

Two shifts help a lot:

📊 Move from exact lines to zones
📊 Move from touch-based entries to confirmation-based entries

Instead of shorting the first touch of a level, wait for a pullback and a break of structure. Instead of buying the exact low, wait for strength to confirm.

Yes, you might enter slightly worse. But you gain clarity and consistency.

Perfection sounds precise. In practice, it often blocks execution.


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50% profit on $1,000 is $500
5% profit on $100,000 is $5,000

Chase bigger capital not bigger returns


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WARNING: The biggest stock market crash in history is imminent warns Robert Kiyosaki, Rich Dad Poor Dad Author.

And the man who has predicted 50 of the last 2 stock market collapses.

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🇳🇱 Netherlands proposes 36% tax on unrealized capital gains starting 2028

The Netherlands announced a 36% tax on unrealized capital gains covering stocks, ETFs, savings, and crypto. Each year, portfolio value growth would be taxed even if assets are not sold. The proposal still requires Senate approval and is scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2028.

Example:

🖱 €100K portfolio rises to €140K
🖱 €40K paper gain
🖱 After €1,800 threshold, €38,200 taxable
🖱 36% tax = €13,752 due

Even if markets later crash, taxes already paid are not refunded. Losses can be carried forward, but prior unrealized gains remain taxed.

In a 3-year scenario:

🖱 Initial investment: €100K
🖱 Total tax paid: €13,752
🖱 Portfolio value after recovery: €110K
🖱 Real net capital after tax: €96,248

On paper the investor shows a profit. After taxes, they are below the original capital.

This setup increases forced selling risk, as investors may need to liquidate assets to pay taxes on unrealized gains.

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📈 Behavioural Slippage: the return you never capture

“Behavioural Slippage” describes the gap between what your system identifies and what you actually earn. It comes from sub-optimal decisions in real time. Missed trades, hesitation, early exits. Things a backtest never does.

Unless every trade idea is recorded, it is almost impossible to measure precisely. But the gap is there. And it is usually larger than people expect.

One portfolio manager who tracked all ideas and outcomes found a difference of nearly 40% return over 3 years. He was profitable, yet a large portion of potential gains never materialized.

The solution starts with acceptance. The gap exists. It is likely bigger than is comfortable.

Then identify where it comes from, and treat reduction as an ongoing project. Track behavior. Review decisions. Gradually narrow the distance between system edge and actual execution.

The system may already be good enough. Execution is the real variable.


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It's a beautiful game trading is.

You don't gotta be smart.
Doesn't matter male or female.
Black or white or yellow.
No college required.
No connections in high places.

You just gotta be consistent.

Develop the skills and you can provide a life for yourself and your family that seems like a dream.

But it's very real.

And within your grasp.

So grab that shit.


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🥇 Massive December gold call spreads raise eyebrows

A large investor has been accumulating December $15,000/$20,000 gold call spreads on COMEX.

For this trade to expire in the money, gold would need to triple from current levels by late 2026. The position can also benefit earlier from a sharp rally or a spike in volatility.

The buying began after gold hit a record $5,600 in late January. Even after prices dropped below $5,000, accumulation continued. Open interest has climbed to around 11,000 contracts.

This is not a hedge. It looks like a bet on a violent upside move.


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📊 Concentration at the top rarely ends smoothly

When a handful of mega-cap stocks drive most of index returns, the surface looks strong. Underneath, fragility builds.

Extreme concentration has never been a hallmark of durable bull markets.

US equities versus the rest of the world also remain near historical dominance extremes. That imbalance has not meaningfully unwound.

At peaks, investors always find new reasons why this time is different. The story changes. The pattern does not.

When positioning becomes one-sided, rotation does not need a big catalyst.

The more interesting question is where capital flows next.

Areas still relatively under-owned and capital-starved:

✔️ Emerging markets
✔️ Metals and mining
✔️ Energy
✔️ Commodities

Regime shifts feel uncomfortable in real time. That is usually where opportunity hides.


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⚠️ US reportedly preparing large-scale campaign against Iran

Tensions around Iran remain elevated. Axios reports that the US is preparing a potential military campaign that could last weeks and resemble a full-scale war, possibly in coordination with Israel.

According to the report, the operation would exceed recent regional conflicts in scope. Diplomatic prospects are described as unlikely, with sources saying the window for a deal is effectively closed.

Over the past 48 hours, the US has moved significant air assets to the Middle East:

🔴 48 F-16 fighters
🔴 12 F-22 fighters
🔴 18 F-35 fighters
🔴 6 E-3G Sentry AWACS aircraft
🔴 Around 40 aerial refueling tankers
🔴 1 RC-135V Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft

This comes on top of deployments made over the past month.

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The simplest bet for this decade is energy.

AI, chips, data centers, robots, electric vehicles, self-driving cars...

None of them work without power. They all need electricity. A lot of it.

Energy is the biggest bottleneck right now.


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The hardest thing to teach developing traders is that losing money on a good trade is a better outcome than making money on a bad one.

Most people never get past this.


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Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reduced its Amazon $AMZN stake by 77% in Q4 2025, selling shares worth ~$1.8B.

He also trimmed his Apple $AAPL position, while adding to Chevron $CVX, and starting a New York Times $NYT position.


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🇺🇸 US jobless claims come in below expectations

Initial jobless claims:
🔴 Actual: 206K
🟡 Forecast: 223K
🟡 Previous: 229K

Claims fell sharply and came in well below expectations, signaling continued strength in the US labor market.

A resilient jobs backdrop reduces pressure on the Fed to ease policy soon. That is moderately negative for risk assets and crypto in the near term.

Strong labor means higher-for-longer stays on the table.


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JUST IN: Trump sets 10-day deadline on Iran

Trump says the US will “find out about Iran in about 10 days,” pointing to a decision window around March 1.


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🚨 UK blocks use of bases for potential Iran strike

The UK is reportedly preventing Trump from using British bases for potential strikes on Iran, according to The Times.

Tensions between London and Washington are rising.

🟡 The block is linked to concerns over international law
🟡 Trump has withdrawn support for Keir Starmer’s Chagos Islands deal
🟡 The White House is still preparing detailed strike plans
🟡 Potential operations were expected to involve Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford
🟡 Both bases host US heavy bomber assets in Europe

Oil prices have climbed to a 6-month high amid the escalation.

Geopolitics is back in the driver’s seat.


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Brutal self-check:

If someone followed your daily habits exactly for 5 years…

Would they become successful?


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Trump has ordered the Secretary of War and other federal agencies to release government files about alien and extraterrestrial life.


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