Finance is not about math.

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Your edge is not the setup.
It’s the discipline to wait for it.

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JUST IN: President Trump says he will be involved in the final decision around Netflix’s acquisition of Warner Brothers and the deal “could be a problem.”

$NFLX

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🇺🇸 Key Events This Week

Heavy week for labor data and Fed policy. Most of the market tone will be set between Tuesday and Wednesday.

🗓Tuesday

🟡 ADP weekly jobless claims — early read on labor softness. Rising claims would confirm cooling momentum.
🟡 JOLTS job openings — key metric for labor demand. Fewer openings ease wage pressure and support a dovish path.

🗓 Wednesday

🟡 U.S. Employment Cost Index — tracks wage inflation. A hot print would push yields higher.
🔴 Fed policy decision — no cuts expected, but tone matters. Markets watch for any shift toward easing.
🔴 FOMC dot plot — updated rate path. Fewer projected cuts would support USD strength.
🔴 Powell press conference — biggest volatility driver of the week. Language around labor and inflation will guide risk sentiment.
🟡 Oracle $ORCL earnings — insight into enterprise spending and cloud demand.

🗓 Thursday

🟡 Initial jobless claims — weekly gauge of labor health. A jump would reinforce the cooling narrative.
🟡 Broadcom $AVGO earnings — key look at AI hardware demand and semiconductor momentum.

The entire week pivots on labor data and the Fed. If job metrics soften and Powell leans cautious, yields may ease and risk could catch a bid. A firm labor picture or hawkish tone keeps pressure on risk assets.

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JUST IN: President Trump says he is signing a “one rule” Executive Order on AI this week.

“You can’t expect a company to get 50 approvals every time they want to do something,” Trump says.

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💵 Trump Plans 12B Dollars in Relief for Farmers

🇨🇳 China committed to buying 12M tons of soybeans by the end of the year, but so far they have purchased only 2.25M tons since October 30.
That leaves roughly 9.75M tons still outstanding.

📊 The chart shows the gap clearly. Despite the trade deal language, China is not following through at the pace needed to hit the target. This puts pressure on US farmers and pushes soybean prices lower.

💸 The 12B dollar aid package is the administration acknowledging that tariffs and stalled trade dynamics are creating real pain in the agricultural sector. When China is not buying, farmers are left with excess supply they cannot sell at strong prices.

🛍 The broader picture is that trade tensions with China remain very real. The gap between promised purchases and actual buying explains why support is needed at all. It is a situation that affects commodities, agricultural stocks and the rural economy, and it matters for anyone tracking inflation and sector trends.

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JUST IN: Netflix stock, $NFLX, falls -3% to its lowest level since April 2025 after Paramount launches a hostile bid for Warner Brothers.

Netflix is now down -28% from its record high seen just 6 months ago.

Paramount's offer values Warner Brothers at $108 BILLLION.

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🚨 Netflix is buying Warner Bros. for 72 billion dollars

The company that killed Blockbuster will now own Harry Potter, Batman, HBO and a full century of Hollywood royalty.

Warner tried to become them.
Now they own Warner.

Here is how the path unfolded 👇

🟡 2011 to 2013
Comcast buys NBCUniversal.
A cable operator now controls a broadcast network, a movie studio and theme parks. The deal works and everyone pays attention. The feeding frenzy begins.

🟡 2018
AT and T spends 85 billion dollars on Time Warner.
A phone company now controls HBO and Batman.

🟡 2019
Disney answers with a 71 billion dollar purchase of Fox.
Studios, FX, NatGeo, all added to the arsenal. Fuel for the streaming wars. Old studios are already prey but they do not see it yet.

🟡 December 2020
Warner tries to transform into Netflix.
The entire 2021 slate goes same day on HBO Max. Dune, Matrix 4, everything. Theatrical windows vanish overnight. Warner bets the company on streaming.

🟡 2022
The plan fails. Amazon picks up MGM. Discovery merges with WarnerMedia. The new WBD sits on 50 billion dollars of debt on day one. A company walking toward its fate.

🟡 2025
WBD finally breaks. Studios and HBO Max on one side, cable on the other. The crown jewels reach the auction block.

🟡 December 5, 2025
Netflix wins.
Warner tried to become them. Now they belong to Netflix.

The prophecy completes itself.
In Hollywood, everyone eats everyone.

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Relax.

99% will quit.

You don't need to beat everybody.

You just need to stay consistent for long enough.

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🕯 Paramount Skydance crashes Netflix’s deal with a hostile $30/shr all-cash bid for WBD

Backed by new equity + $54B debt, $PSKY is trying to blow up $NFLX’s $27.75/shr cash+stock offer with ~$18B more cash to $WBD holders.

Paramount would keep WBD intact and merge HBO Max with Paramount+.

President Trump has publicly flagged antitrust concerns over the Netflix–WBD merger, warning the deal “could be a problem.”

✅ $WBD +5.9% ➜ rip

✅ $PSKY +4.1% ➜ pop

🔴 $NFLX −4.4% ➜ selloff

The market is pricing in a live bidding war.

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🇺🇸 Trump Greenlights Nvidia’s H200 Sales to China

🗣️ President Trump says he spoke with President Xi and approved the sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China.
He also says 25% of revenue will be paid to the United States and the same approach will apply to AMD, Intel and others.

The reaction is massive.

📈 For months Nvidia had been forecasting zero China revenue. One of their largest markets vanished overnight when the trade war escalated. Today that market is returning and Nvidia has already added more than 200B USD in market cap.

🛍 Before the trade war, Nvidia controlled around 95% of the entire AI chip market in China. If export restrictions keep easing, the upside becomes obvious.

This is a major pivot point for US chip giants.
Jensen Huang just won again.

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❕ China is preparing to limit access to Nvidia’s, $NVDA, H200 AI chips even though President Trump cleared them for export.

Regulators are weighing a stricter approval system that would require buyers to prove domestic chips aren’t sufficient for their needs.

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🚨 JOLTS job openings in about 20 minutes

Key metric for labor demand.
Fewer openings ease wage pressure and support a more dovish path from the Fed.

This release was delayed by 7 days due to the US government shutdown.
There will be two simultaneous releases because last month’s data was skipped.
Both prints cover October.

Market reaction: 👍 or 👎?

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📊 JOLTS Job Openings (Oct)

7.67M actual vs 7.12M expected

A hotter print than the market wanted.

Labor demand is still stronger than forecasts suggested, which works against the narrative of easing wage pressure and a smooth dovish path.

More openings mean employers are still competing for workers, and that can keep wage growth sticky.
Not the clean cooldown the Fed would prefer.

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