❗️Oracle’s Debt Insurance Hits 16-Year High

Oracle credit default swaps, the cost to insure its debt, have climbed to about 1.28% per year. This is the highest level since 2009 and more than three times the level seen in June.

🔴 The bond market now treats Oracle as one of the riskiest large companies in the entire AI sector.

It is the lowest rated hyperscaler at BBB with more than one hundred billion dollars in debt and a major AI data center and power expansion that relies on OpenAI and the Stargate project.

Oracle will report Q2 earnings on December 10.

✅ @trading

💱 2026: The Year the Fed Turns Into a New Institution

Next year’s market story is the arrival of a new Federal Reserve. If Trump selects Kevin Hassett as Chair, policy shifts toward an openly growth first stance and away from Powell’s caution.

❓ Who Hassett Is

Hassett is the leading candidate with strong odds. He argues that inflation is essentially defeated and that current real rates are held up for political reasons. All year he pushed the same message that rates should be much lower. On any hawkish to dovish scale he sits near the most dovish end.

The expected sequence is simple. In January he replaces Miran as Governor. In May he becomes Chair. Powell then steps down from the Board as every exiting Chair has done which allows Trump to bring in Warsh.

⚡️ The New Committee

If Powell resigns, Hassett gains a firm dovish core supported by a large group of officials who can be convinced. Only two members stand as consistent hawks.

If Powell refuses to resign, the outcome turns bearish because he becomes a shadow leader who blocks new appointments and splits loyalty across the committee.

🕯 Market Reaction

First comes immediate optimism once Hassett is nominated and confirmed.
Then concern grows if Powell remains silent for several weeks.
A strong rally follows the moment Powell confirms his exit.
Volatility returns ahead of the first meeting under Hassett in June 2026.

The risk is a divided committee. The Chair has no special tie breaking power and repeated split votes would undermine trust.

📉 Rates And Repricing

The official dot plot hides the real stance. The true median of voting members for late 2026 is close to three point one percent. With Hassett and Warsh in place the center moves toward two point six percent.

The market sits near three point zero two percent which leaves meaningful room for the short end to fall. If the productivity boom continues to cool inflation, the pressure for deeper cuts increases.

🌐 Asset Impact

Two year yields should drop as easing becomes the base case while ten year yields stay higher due to stronger growth.
Equities benefit from lower real discount rates and a revival in growth valuations.
Gold strengthens in any environment where the Fed favors expansion over strict inflation control.
Bitcoin eventually reacts positively if policy turns clearly supportive despite recent fragile behavior.

🔗 The Tealbook Factor

The research staff drives the baseline for every FOMC debate. A shift from a Keynesian outlook to a supply side outlook would produce more disinflationary forecasts which gives moderates room to back stronger cuts.

The result is clear. The year 2026 is set to deliver a true policy regime change. Markets only partly reflect this shift even though the incoming leadership points to a much more forceful turn toward lower rates.

✅ @trading

Young people wreck themselves because they expect life to be fair - they think something, somewhere, is supposed to balance out.

It doesn’t.
Where you’re born, who you’re born to…
Opportunities, interviews, timing - none of it is fair.

As a trader you get taught this quickly: the market doesn’t care about effort, time spent, or what you "deserve". It just is. Some days you get paid for doing nothing, other days you do everything right and still get clipped.

Accept it early.
Drop the expectation, look at things as they are, and play the hand you’ve got. That’s how you actually move forward.

✅ @trading

💵 US Treasury Just Completed a Record Buyback

The US Treasury carried out a record buyback of government bonds worth 12.5 billion dollars.

Total submissions reached 34.6 billion dollars, and the Treasury accepted 12.5 billion across twenty three issues.

This is one of the largest liquidity injections from the Treasury in recent years and a clear sign that officials want smoother market functioning and tighter spreads.

✅ @trading

🇺🇸REMINDER: US initial jobless claims data will be released in 1 hour.

Expectations: 220,000

Do you see the reaction up or down?
Tap 👍 or 👎

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🇺🇸US Initial Jobless Claims:

Actual: 191k
Expected: 220k

Labor market still looks tight, not the cooldown the Fed wants.

✅ @trading

JUST IN: "Trump Accounts" will feature TAX-FREE contributions with "hundreds of major companies" set to contribute.

25+ million US kids will now receive $1,000 from the Trump Administration, $250 from Michael Dell, and all tax-free contributions made to these accounts.

This will provide TRILLIONS of dollars to kids if invested until age 20+.

✅ @trading

Finance is the best because you don't have to be "nice" or play politics in order to win.

The market is the ultimate mechanism for objective truth.

If you think someone is wrong take your capital and express your opinion, if you're right you get paid.

✅ @trading

🕔 The Stock Market Is Being Steered Toward 24/7 Trading

DTCC and EY both say the shift is already underway.
Investors who trade crypto around the clock now expect the same access to US equities.

The market is slowly moving toward a nonstop format, and the real question is no longer if it happens, but when.

✅ @trading

Over the last 72 hours:

1️⃣ Apple's AI Chief steps down
2️⃣ Apple's Head of UI Design leaves to Meta
3️⃣ Apple's Policy Chief steps down
4️⃣ Apple's Head of General Counsel steps down

What is happening at Apple?

✅ @trading

🇺🇸 US PCE and Core PCE incoming in 1 hour

PCE expected at 2.9%
Core PCE expected at 2.8%

Market reaction?
👍 or 👎

✅ @trading

JUST IN: President Trump has approved “tiny cars” to be built in the US.

✅ @trading

🇺🇸Core PCE came in at 2.8%

Expectations: 2.9%

A small but clean sign of cooling, giving the market a bit more confidence in the disinflation path.

✅ @trading

⏳ Five Years of Pain for Fifty Years of Freedom

This line hits differently once you understand what it really means.

Most traders quit in their first year. The losing streaks, the pressure, the doubt, the days when nothing works can break almost anyone. The market tests people long before it rewards them.

But a small group stays in the game. And that group understands a simple truth. The time horizon decides everything.

🔴 The early stage is the red zone.
This is where the market collects its fees.
Position sizing is learned through mistakes.
Emotions show their power.
Old habits fall apart and new ones slowly form.
Money is lost, but experience grows faster than any balance.

🟢 Then comes the green zone.
Trades start to make sense.
Volatility no longer scares because it is familiar.
A system takes shape that feels natural.
Trust in the process replaces fear.

And eventually the chart narrows to that point on the far right.
That point is freedom.
Freedom to work from anywhere.
Freedom from bosses and schedules.
Freedom to scale income without adding hours.
Freedom to secure a family’s future for decades.

The real question for every trader is simple.

Can five hard years be endured to earn fifty free ones?

Most people choose comfort now and regret it later.
A smaller group embraces the pain now and spends the next decades living on their own terms.

✅ @trading

The four parts of profitable trading:

1. Waiting patiently for your setup.

2. Calmly entering your trade set up.

3. Exiting with discipline at your stop loss, trailing stop, or profit target.

4. Repeat the process.

✅ @trading