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📉 The Hidden Hole in US Banks: 395B in Losses No One Talks About

US banks are carrying a massive load of unrealized losses from bonds they bought back when rates were near zero.

Once the Fed pushed rates higher in 2022–2023, those old low-yield bonds collapsed in value. On paper the losses don’t count, but the moment banks are forced to sell, they become real.

Here’s the core of the problem:

● Banks are sitting on about 395B in losses from outdated low-yield bonds
● Around 6T is locked in underwater securities that can’t be sold without crystallizing losses
● This freezes lending capacity because banks won’t issue new loans while trapped in bad positions
● Regional banks are at the highest risk since they rely heavily on large uninsured deposits that flee instantly when confidence cracks
● A single scare about credit quality or asset weakness can trigger a bank run and force liquidation

📉 If rates stay high or rise again, these losses deepen, just like in late 2024 when they hit 750B
📈 If rates fall, bond prices recover and the balance sheets breathe again

Big banks like JPM can absorb the pressure, smaller banks cannot handle a sudden shock

The system looks calm only because confidence hasn’t been tested. Regional banks are living on borrowed time. If rates don’t ease or a credit scare hits, the stress hidden on balance sheets turns into real trouble fast.

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🔥 Leverage Is Back: Traders Are Buying Every Dip

Dip buyers aren’t just active right now, they’re doing it with leverage. Trading volumes in leveraged-long US equity ETFs just hit about 26B last week, the strongest surge since the rebound after the April sell-off.

Here’s what stands out:

🟡 Only two periods in the last five and a half years saw higher leveraged dip buying: the late-2021 meme mania and the start of the 2022 bear market

🟡 Last week’s activity is more than double this year’s average

🟡 The number of leveraged equity ETFs has exploded, jumping by roughly 200 new products this year and hitting a record 701 by October

🟡 Retail and fast money traders are piling in aggressively, treating every pullback as an opportunity

Dip buying remains extremely strong, and leverage is amplifying it. This type of behavior usually signals confidence, but it can also show growing fragility if momentum turns.


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JUST IN: President Trump indicated that a deal regarding Ukraine is approaching very closely.

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Trading is a waiting game.

Waiting games are the hardest games you'll ever play.

They go against our natural tendency to want things fast.

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💧 Oil Back at Historically Cheap Levels

Tavi Costa points out that oil, when adjusted for money supply, is now trading near some of the cheapest levels in its recorded history. Each time the market reaches this zone, people argue that the weakness will persist, but that has never held up over longer cycles.

🟡 Oil sits deep inside the “historically cheap” range
🟡 Money supply growth has outpaced commodity pricing
🟡 Past setups like this often preceded strong multi-year rallies
🟡 The market still treats oil as undervalued despite solid fundamentals

A clean reminder that extreme discounts on major commodities rarely last forever.


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📞 China’s Call to Trump Was Bigger Than It Looked

The call Xi initiated to Trump wasn’t just unusual. It was historic. For the first time ever, a Chinese leader requested a call with a U.S. president. That alone signals a major shift.

🟡 But the real story is in the language China used in its official readout. Beijing framed the U.S. and China as joint defenders of the post-WW2 order, a phrase China previously used almost only with Russia. They also described Taiwan’s return to China as part of the post-war international order, positioning the U.S. and China on the same side as post-WW2 victors rather than Cold War adversaries.

🟡 This is a dramatic reframing of the entire US-China relationship. Instead of the usual Nixon-era “pragmatic engagement”, China is pushing a narrative of historical partnership and shared responsibility – something aligned with a future multipolar world where both countries act as peers.

🟡 Xi initiating the call, the Japan-centered framing, and the recent push around “Taiwan Retrocession Day” all suggest this shift was prepared long before the current tensions.

And the funniest part is that while China was making one of the biggest diplomatic narrative moves in decades, Trump walked away thinking the call was mainly about agriculture.

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🔥 Michael Marcus: The Trader Who Blew Up 3 Times Before Turning 30k Into 80M

Michael Marcus didn’t start as a legend. He started by blowing up. Three times. His story is the clearest reminder that survival matters more than brilliance.

🟡 His first $1000 vanished after trusting a friend who promised insane returns

🟡 His next $500 disappeared just as fast

🟡 He even cashed out his father’s life insurance for $3000 and lost his first eight trades in a row

Most people quit. Marcus didn’t.

Everything changed after meeting Ed Seykota, who drilled two rules into him:
cut losses fast and let winners run. Simple ideas almost everyone ignores.

Marcus still learned the hard way. He once bet his entire account on lumber.
A single government announcement crushed the trade. He spent two weeks shaking, one bad tick away from ruin. He survived, and from that moment he never risked more than 5 percent on any idea.

That rule saved his career.

He stopped predicting and started reading market behavior.
Strong tape on bad news. Weak tape on good news. Reality over opinion.

His breakthrough came with plywood during Nixon’s price controls, then gold in the 1970s bull run. From there, the climb was relentless.

The Commodities Corporation gave him $30k.
A decade later it was $80 million.

Marcus proved one thing above all: survival beats optimization, and discipline beats prediction.


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JUST IN: Bitcoin has reclaimed the $90,000 mark, representing a 12% gain from its low last week.

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💵 Tether, Gold and the Fragile Foundation Behind the Digital Dollar

Tether began as a trader tool, but with more than 180 billion USDT in circulation it has turned into critical infrastructure for people who cannot rely on local banks, unstable currencies or slow remittances. For millions, USDT is the only dependable dollar they can access.

How Tether Actually Backs USDT

Tether says every token is backed by reserve assets. In practice the reserve is a mix of Treasury bills, corporate paper, secured loans, Bitcoin and gold. These assets generate billions in profit, but they also carry risk.
Bitcoin and gold can move sharply. If they fall too much, the value of the reserves may no longer match all outstanding USDT.

📈 The Gold Buying Spree

Tether bought 26 tonnes of gold in Q3 2025, more than any single central bank in that period. It now holds around 116 tonnes, larger than the reserves of countries like Hungary or South Korea.
The goal is simple: signal safety to institutions and emerging markets using a classic store of value. With huge profits, Tether can keep adding dozens of tonnes per year, which has contributed to gold’s surge.

Why S&P Issued Its Lowest Rating

S&P Global rated Tether “weak” because volatile assets now make up a meaningful share of the reserve. Bitcoin represents more than five percent while Tether’s safety buffer is under four percent. A sharp drop could briefly undermine full backing.
S&P also highlighted poor transparency about who custodies the reserves and what protections users have if Tether fails. And small users cannot redeem directly unless they move six-figure amounts.

Tether is now powerful enough to influence global gold markets, yet the stability of USDT still depends on a reserve portfolio that is not perfectly stable. This does not imply collapse. It simply shows how much clearer the backing must be for a digital dollar that millions depend on daily.

The stronger the reserves, the stronger the trust.


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Americans with college degrees now make up a record 25% of all unemployed.


White collar jobs are being replaced by AI now.
Blue collar jobs will be replaced by robotics tomorrow.

Manual skills won't save you.
Entrepreneurship will.

It should be clear that we are entering the era of builders, not the era of plumbers.

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How to Use Multi-Timeframe Alignment Like a Pro

Most traders stare at one chart and wonder why their setups fail. The real edge comes from aligning three timeframes so every entry follows the bias of a higher structure. This framework keeps you out of noise and inside clean, high-probability moves.

What Timeframe Alignment Really Means

You read the lower-timeframe structure through the lens of a higher-timeframe key level. Price reacts at weekly, daily and 4H levels, and the lower timeframes simply express that reaction in detail.

When you align the zones, the trade becomes obvious.

🕯 The Three-Timeframe Stack

A clean Market Maker Model forms when the higher timeframe provides the key level, the intermediate timeframe shows structure and the lower timeframe gives the entry trigger.

The usual flow looks like this 👇

● Weekly level to 4H structure
● Daily level to 1H structure
● 4H level to 15m structure
● 1H level to 5m structure
● 15m level to 1m structure

The higher timeframe gives bias. The intermediate timeframe confirms the model. The entry timeframe gives precision.

✔️ Choosing the Right Intermediate

The “right” timeframe isn’t fixed. It is simply the one that shows the model most clearly.
If volatility is high, the pattern forms lower.
If price is slow, it forms higher.
Clean structure always wins over rules.

❗️ The Timeframes That Matter Most

● Macro clarity comes from Monthly and Weekly.

● Bias and reaction come from Daily and 4H.

● Execution happens on 1H, 15m, 5m and sometimes 1m.

This hierarchy keeps you grounded and prevents overtrading.

Putting It All Together

You start with a higher timeframe key level showing discount or premium.
You move to the intermediate timeframe to map the SMR or continuation pattern.
You drop lower to take executions around IFVGs, breakers or clean displacement.

The three-step logic stays the same

● Identify the HTF reaction

● Confirm structure on the mid timeframe

● Enter on the LTF where candles are cleanest

Multi-timeframe alignment filters noise, clarifies bias and shows where the real liquidity sits. Once you train your eye to see the connection between higher-timeframe arrays and lower-timeframe structure, setups stop feeling random and start feeling inevitable.

This is how pros avoid random entries and only trade when the market is in agreement.


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One Telegram notification while you’re analyzing charts or reviewing your plan steals the next twenty three minutes of your best thinking.

Check your phone 40 times a day, which is the average for most people, and you’ve burned 15 hours a week of peak cognitive performance.

Turn notifications off.
Your future self will thank you.


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⚠️ CME Halts Futures Trading Across Major Markets

A rare technical failure hit global markets after CME Group was forced to halt futures trading on stocks, currencies and commodities.

🔴 CME says a cooling issue at a CyrusOne data center triggered the shutdown
🔴 Trading froze across Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures
🔴 Gold, crude and even the CME-owned EBS FX platform also stopped updating
🔴 The halt landed on an already shortened Black Friday session
🔴 CME operates the world’s largest derivatives exchanges, so the outage hit globally connected markets at once

A cooling failure taking down the largest futures venue shows how fragile market plumbing can be. Even the strongest infrastructure relies on hardware that can simply… overheat.


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🗣️ Be Warren Buffett:

🟡 Becomes best friends with Bill Gates in the 1990s, but doesn’t invest in Microsoft and watches it grow into a $3.59 trillion company.

🟡 Passes on the opportunity to invest early in Google, despite GEICO (his insurance company) paying $10–$11 per click for Google ads.

🟡 Repeatedly mocks Bitcoin, calling it a speculative instrument and tells people to “stay away” in 2014 when BTC was trading for $600.

🟡 Continues to invest in CPG companies like Coca-Cola, and doubles down on his negative comments towards Bitcoin, calling it “rat poison squared."

🟡 Finally makes a major tech bet in 2016, buying $40B worth of Apple stock. Widely described as the most profitable investment ever, worth over $150B+ at its peak.

🟡 This month, his firm disclosed a $4.3 billion investment in Google. This position is already worth $5.7 billion.

95 years old, and still outperforming the market.


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Trade Watcher
⚠️ CME Halts Futures Trading Across Major Markets A rare technical failure hit global markets after CME Group was forced to halt futures trading on stocks, currencies and commodities. 🔴 CME says a cooling issue at a CyrusOne data center triggered the shutdown…
Something is brewing

CME has been down for more than 10 hours.
This isn’t just a “technical issue.”

Futures and options are the core hedging tools for funds, market makers and big players.
When CME is offline, real price discovery simply doesn’t exist.

🔴 Today is a shortened US trading day
🔴 The market closes early at 1 p.m. ET
🔴 Two full days of weekend ahead
🔴 Monday opens a new month

A perfect setup for a sharp move while the entire market is effectively unhedged and blind.


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JUST IN: The Chicago Mercantile Exchange says stock market futures and options trading will reopen at 8:30 AM ET after an 8+ hour disruption.

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‼️ Michael Burry is flashing a 1999 warning

🟡 Back then he was a 27-year-old neurology resident at Stanford writing stock notes at night while Silicon Valley drowned in dot-com euphoria. He bought Apple when everyone thought it was dead, ran a public portfolio that returned 68 percent in 1999, and two weeks after his last post the Nasdaq peaked and began a collapse that took fifteen years to recover.

🟡 Today he’s resurfaced with Cassandra Unchained because he sees the same emotional pattern forming around AI. Exponential narratives, stretched valuations, capital chasing buzzwords, and business models whose economics lag far behind the hype, it all mirrors the late-90s playbook. The strongest companies are already showing early cracks in margins, cost structures and expectations.

🟡 Burry isn’t calling tech fake. He’s warning that markets misprice real revolutions too. When everyone believes a new paradigm abolishes old rules, that’s usually when discipline matters most. His message is simple:
The setup looks familiar, and ignoring that similarity has never ended well.


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