US banks are carrying a massive load of unrealized losses from bonds they bought back when rates were near zero.
Once the Fed pushed rates higher in 2022–2023, those old low-yield bonds collapsed in value. On paper the losses don’t count, but the moment banks are forced to sell, they become real.
Here’s the core of the problem:
● Banks are sitting on about 395B in losses from outdated low-yield bonds
● Around 6T is locked in underwater securities that can’t be sold without crystallizing losses
● This freezes lending capacity because banks won’t issue new loans while trapped in bad positions
● Regional banks are at the highest risk since they rely heavily on large uninsured deposits that flee instantly when confidence cracks
● A single scare about credit quality or asset weakness can trigger a bank run and force liquidation
Big banks like JPM can absorb the pressure, smaller banks cannot handle a sudden shock
The system looks calm only because confidence hasn’t been tested. Regional banks are living on borrowed time. If rates don’t ease or a credit scare hits, the stress hidden on balance sheets turns into real trouble fast.
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Dip buyers aren’t just active right now, they’re doing it with leverage. Trading volumes in leveraged-long US equity ETFs just hit about 26B last week, the strongest surge since the rebound after the April sell-off.
Here’s what stands out:
Dip buying remains extremely strong, and leverage is amplifying it. This type of behavior usually signals confidence, but it can also show growing fragility if momentum turns.
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JUST IN: President Trump indicated that a deal regarding Ukraine is approaching very closely.
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Trading is a waiting game.
Waiting games are the hardest games you'll ever play.
They go against our natural tendency to want things fast.
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Waiting games are the hardest games you'll ever play.
They go against our natural tendency to want things fast.
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Tavi Costa points out that oil, when adjusted for money supply, is now trading near some of the cheapest levels in its recorded history. Each time the market reaches this zone, people argue that the weakness will persist, but that has never held up over longer cycles.
A clean reminder that extreme discounts on major commodities rarely last forever.
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The call Xi initiated to Trump wasn’t just unusual. It was historic. For the first time ever, a Chinese leader requested a call with a U.S. president. That alone signals a major shift.
And the funniest part is that while China was making one of the biggest diplomatic narrative moves in decades, Trump walked away thinking the call was mainly about agriculture.
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Michael Marcus didn’t start as a legend. He started by blowing up. Three times. His story is the clearest reminder that survival matters more than brilliance.
Most people quit. Marcus didn’t.
Everything changed after meeting Ed Seykota, who drilled two rules into him:
cut losses fast and let winners run. Simple ideas almost everyone ignores.
Marcus still learned the hard way. He once bet his entire account on lumber.
A single government announcement crushed the trade. He spent two weeks shaking, one bad tick away from ruin. He survived, and from that moment he never risked more than 5 percent on any idea.
He stopped predicting and started reading market behavior.
Strong tape on bad news. Weak tape on good news. Reality over opinion.
His breakthrough came with plywood during Nixon’s price controls, then gold in the 1970s bull run. From there, the climb was relentless.
The Commodities Corporation gave him $30k.
A decade later it was $80 million.
Marcus proved one thing above all: survival beats optimization, and discipline beats prediction.
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JUST IN: Bitcoin has reclaimed the $90,000 mark, representing a 12% gain from its low last week.
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Tether began as a trader tool, but with more than 180 billion USDT in circulation it has turned into critical infrastructure for people who cannot rely on local banks, unstable currencies or slow remittances. For millions, USDT is the only dependable dollar they can access.
Tether says every token is backed by reserve assets. In practice the reserve is a mix of Treasury bills, corporate paper, secured loans, Bitcoin and gold. These assets generate billions in profit, but they also carry risk.
Bitcoin and gold can move sharply. If they fall too much, the value of the reserves may no longer match all outstanding USDT.
Tether bought 26 tonnes of gold in Q3 2025, more than any single central bank in that period. It now holds around 116 tonnes, larger than the reserves of countries like Hungary or South Korea.
The goal is simple: signal safety to institutions and emerging markets using a classic store of value. With huge profits, Tether can keep adding dozens of tonnes per year, which has contributed to gold’s surge.
S&P Global rated Tether “weak” because volatile assets now make up a meaningful share of the reserve. Bitcoin represents more than five percent while Tether’s safety buffer is under four percent. A sharp drop could briefly undermine full backing.
S&P also highlighted poor transparency about who custodies the reserves and what protections users have if Tether fails. And small users cannot redeem directly unless they move six-figure amounts.
Tether is now powerful enough to influence global gold markets, yet the stability of USDT still depends on a reserve portfolio that is not perfectly stable. This does not imply collapse. It simply shows how much clearer the backing must be for a digital dollar that millions depend on daily.
The stronger the reserves, the stronger the trust.
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Americans with college degrees now make up a record 25% of all unemployed.
White collar jobs are being replaced by AI now.
Blue collar jobs will be replaced by robotics tomorrow.
Manual skills won't save you.
Entrepreneurship will.
It should be clear that we are entering the era of builders, not the era of plumbers.
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Most traders stare at one chart and wonder why their setups fail. The real edge comes from aligning three timeframes so every entry follows the bias of a higher structure. This framework keeps you out of noise and inside clean, high-probability moves.
You read the lower-timeframe structure through the lens of a higher-timeframe key level. Price reacts at weekly, daily and 4H levels, and the lower timeframes simply express that reaction in detail.
When you align the zones, the trade becomes obvious.
A clean Market Maker Model forms when the higher timeframe provides the key level, the intermediate timeframe shows structure and the lower timeframe gives the entry trigger.
The usual flow looks like this
● Weekly level to 4H structure
● Daily level to 1H structure
● 4H level to 15m structure
● 1H level to 5m structure
● 15m level to 1m structure
The higher timeframe gives bias. The intermediate timeframe confirms the model. The entry timeframe gives precision.
The “right” timeframe isn’t fixed. It is simply the one that shows the model most clearly.
If volatility is high, the pattern forms lower.
If price is slow, it forms higher.
Clean structure always wins over rules.
● Macro clarity comes from Monthly and Weekly.
● Bias and reaction come from Daily and 4H.
● Execution happens on 1H, 15m, 5m and sometimes 1m.
This hierarchy keeps you grounded and prevents overtrading.
You start with a higher timeframe key level showing discount or premium.
You move to the intermediate timeframe to map the SMR or continuation pattern.
You drop lower to take executions around IFVGs, breakers or clean displacement.
The three-step logic stays the same
● Identify the HTF reaction
● Confirm structure on the mid timeframe
● Enter on the LTF where candles are cleanest
Multi-timeframe alignment filters noise, clarifies bias and shows where the real liquidity sits. Once you train your eye to see the connection between higher-timeframe arrays and lower-timeframe structure, setups stop feeling random and start feeling inevitable.
This is how pros avoid random entries and only trade when the market is in agreement.
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One Telegram notification while you’re analyzing charts or reviewing your plan steals the next twenty three minutes of your best thinking.
Check your phone 40 times a day, which is the average for most people, and you’ve burned 15 hours a week of peak cognitive performance.
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Check your phone 40 times a day, which is the average for most people, and you’ve burned 15 hours a week of peak cognitive performance.
Turn notifications off.
Your future self will thank you.
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A rare technical failure hit global markets after CME Group was forced to halt futures trading on stocks, currencies and commodities.
A cooling failure taking down the largest futures venue shows how fragile market plumbing can be. Even the strongest infrastructure relies on hardware that can simply… overheat.
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95 years old, and still outperforming the market.
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Trade Watcher
CME has been down for more than 10 hours.
This isn’t just a “technical issue.”
Futures and options are the core hedging tools for funds, market makers and big players.
When CME is offline, real price discovery simply doesn’t exist.
A perfect setup for a sharp move while the entire market is effectively unhedged and blind.
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JUST IN: The Chicago Mercantile Exchange says stock market futures and options trading will reopen at 8:30 AM ET after an 8+ hour disruption.
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The setup looks familiar, and ignoring that similarity has never ended well.
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